I don't know who's arguing that China "magically" becomes a superpower "overnight" but it isn't me. The article suggests that China becomes the world's biggest economy by 2025. They are acquiring more and more civilian state-of-the-art manufacturing technology, which they demand as the price of doing business with them. My argument is that military superpower status inevitably follows economic status, for China in particular because, as D-G argues, they will have plenty of potential conflicts with much of the world over resource access. D-G also I believe is overstating the demographic issue. It's a challenge, also for western Europe, but I don't believe it will be the overwhelming factor in determining their national productivity. I think their environmental challenges are a lot more severe than their demographic challenges per se in any case, although the two are of course closely related. And I'm willing to get on board with the idea that a major real estate bubble collapse is about to happen. Let's say it's as bad as the U.S. housing market collapse, or worse. Say a 50% collapse in commercial and residential real estate prices. It won't slow their growth much in the long term. The RE market will correct, China will use its vast currency reserves/surplus to throw money at the problem in ways the U.S. is too politically hamstrung and indebted to consider. Even a 50% RE correction won't cause more than a 5-10% recession at worst. But since China has captured much of the world's new manufacturing capacity, growth will resume. And then maybe their economy outpaces ours in 2027 instead of 2025, or 2023 instead 2020. Whatever. I don't think it impacts the big picture. Unless of course it's a global economic collapse that hits everyone simultaneously, in which case of course China comes out on top anyway. A global downturn would bring the U.S. to its knees right now. But China would be able to shrug it off within months.