Do you think this will beat The Dark Knight this weekend?

Pineapple Express seems to be gaining in popularity.

 

Uh, you guys are saying because it's animated that it won't do good?

Movies like Shrek, Happy Feet, Wall-E, etc. etc. etc. consistently do very well in the box office.

The Dark Knight made 26 million last weekend and will make even less than that this weekend, it's nearly impossible that it would gain ground at this point.

TCW is going to make 60 million opening weekend, mark it down.

 

I'm not counting Tropic out by a long shot, Quest, but the media and everyone is really under estimating SW. I guess that's maybe a good thing for it, lowers the expectations. I do think there is a bit of oversaturation in the market, especially with the Clone Wars brand and this characters, which is a bit like been there done that for audiences.

I'm curious, Garth, to see if Pineapple and Tropic effect each other since they have the same audience basically.

 

Until Thursday, the collective wisdom of box-office prognosticators was that DreamWorks/Paramount's Tropic Thunder would finally unseat The Dark Knight at the top of the box office. Now, they're hedging their bets. Tropic Thunder, it seems, may have run out of lightning before the weekend began, with The Dark Knight emerging as the dark-horse possibility to win a fifth victory. Thunder opened on Wednesday to a less-than-spectacular $6.5 million, then rapidly fell on Thursday to $4.5 million -- a bad sign. The Batman sequel remained steady at about $3 million on each of those days. Analysts were unsure why Tropic Thunder appeared to be fizzling so soon. It received mostly solid reviews -- better ones, in fact, than Pineapple Express, which opened a week earlier with nearly twice the number of ticket sales. Apparently the call for a boycott by organizations representing the mentally disabled was not responsible. The Los Angeles Times reported today (Friday) that when online ticket seller Fandango asked its customers whether the boycott call made them less interested or more interested in seeing the movie, 77 percent responded "more interested." The Dark Knight also faces a challenge from the animated Star Wars: The Clone Wars, which opens today. However, analysts say it's difficult to predict how the film will do. Although it appears to be a sure bet to attract preteen boys, it could also attract a sizable number of inveterate fans of the franchise. Also opening this weekend is the horror film Mirrors, which was not screened for critics. In addition, Woody Allen's latest comedy, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, which has received the filmmaker's best reviews since his 2005 film Match Point, is making its debut in only 692 theaters.

Source: http://www.imdb.com/news/ni0551745/

Quest, yes I heard he was funny in the movie. But I only have time for one movie for the rest of the summer and it's going to be TCW! My question for you, do you want TCW to open at number one or do you want Thunder to?

60 million!! Wow, that would be awesome, but highly unlikely, IMO.

Still... May the Force be with TCW!

Now, I just hope this thing is good... and I'll know in about 8 hours...

 

Like I said before, I agree that probably TT will be number one on Monday simply because it has a two day head start. But as far as word of mouth, if people decide they don't want to see a movie they usually aren't swayed by critics or word of mouth. Word of mouth usually only words for movies that haven't oversaturated the market, from what I can tell.

Now, if TT had opened on the same day as TCW, I have no doubts TCW would take it. As it is, I wouldn't be very surprised if TCW still beat it with only 3 instead of 5 days. Even if regular people don't see it, enough fans should turn out, along with young boys.

Now, I'm going to argue that Friday's, Saturday's and Sunday's grosses for TCW will be above Friday's, Saturday's, and Sunday's TT's grosses. Will everyone agree there?

 

I just don't understand why people think that a majority of Hardcore and secretive Star Wars fans won't go and see this movie.

I don't see any dancing penguins or panda's doing karate. I don't see it being such a turn off to the adult audience that they refuse to go see it.

60 million isn't even a very high number, IMO. In fact until just a few days ago I thought it was going to do much better than that, but it just seems like everyone is so down on this flick and trying to create a negative buzz that it will end up keeping a few people away.

I don't know, I just don't see how this doesn't beat Dark Knight. Even if Dark Knight pulls of 20 million this weekend, how could TCW not top that?

Go on boxofficemojo and just do some research on openings. 60 million isn't a giant number like it used to be back when Austin Power II was released.

Let me just say, the so-called experts also said that The Dark Knight would do 75 million opening weekend (did 160) and would make about 200 million domestically (it will be 2nd all-time domestically after this weekend)

So I would take the 'experts' opinions with a grain of salt.


P.S.

As far as Wednesday's and Thursday's numbers for TT, that isn't going to count for who wins the weekend box office. So whether TCW can top their 5 days with 3 days, is really a moot point.

 

I'm sure it'll have a reasonably big opening weekend and I know that hitherto Star Wars was critic proof, but I don't see this thing surviving the critical mauling it got. The sort of reviews its been given must in the end, have a big effect on its box office. I suspect we're looking at the first ever Star Wars box office flop.

 

It's also interesting to note that tonight, the night a new SW movie opens, is likely to be the same night The Dark Knight surpasses the original SW on the all-time unadjusted domestic list.

Yeah, quite ironic. But, as it's been said it will never (and no movie will ever) surpass SW with inflation prices taken into account.

Though, I was unaware that Gone With The Wind (I think that's the movie) is number one and not SW.

 

It might work for a movie that has come under the radar, like Sixth Sense or Something about Mary, but in my experience, something very over-saturated, it's hard to get people to change their minds.

I agree. There is a lot of people wanting to create negative buzz around this movie.

 

I'm still predicting a robust $5-$9 million for TCW this weekend.

 

Yeah, I had seen that when on some Boxoffice Mojo. Was surprised. I hadn't even thought of that movie.

Seriously? $5-9? That's not good at all for a three day total. I am pretty sure it will make more than $20.

 

I'm basing that primarily on The X-Files take, minus a little for it being an animated kid's feature And also the bad buzz. I think that's a lot of money for a tv episode given a theatrical run. Maybe by next weekend it will make $20 mill. IMO anyways...

GL already proved his summer popcorn supremacy with Indy4. That was just a huge success in every way, minus a handful of griping critics & fanboyz.

 

You have to realize that The X-Files:

1.) Is not nearly as popular as Star Wars.
2.) It came out only one week after The Dark Knight. This is one month, which has given plenty of time for people to see TDK multiple times (I've seen it 3 times). So, it will not have the same effect on SW as it did on X-Files.

I think those are reasonable, 2ndQuest.

 

And lacked amazing cast as TDK had.

 

I really liked TDK the first time, but the second I just got fed up with it - I've read dozens of old issues of the comic book that have better storylines & scripts & don't take themselves so insufferably seriously. Not junking the movie tho, it's a slick, effective film. I liked Indy better, also Speed Racer & Hellboy2 - maybe I'm just in the mood for more colorful, innocent films right now...

 

I really think people are underestimating TCW. My BO predictions are:

TCW $40 Million
TT $25 Million
TDK $15 Million

 

If TCW makes $40 million I'll eat my socks!
But the fans seem to mostly like it. Can't wait to hear what the kids in my family think of it.

 

I'm not sure Clone Wars will take more than $15 mil. The theatre was half empty for 7:50 showing. It was one of the larger ones, but it still doesn't look too good. Althought the matinee showings on Sat/Sun will probably bring in more families with kids.