Episode 2 Opening Gross Predictions

Discussion in 'Attack of the Clones' started by CarbonKnight, May 1, 2002.

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  1. obi_wan_skiniobi Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Feb 12, 2002
    star 2
    my gross prediction for opening day is that at least one person or child will throw up in at least one of the theaters theater.
  2. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    A difference between Harry Potter and Spider-Man is that Harry Potter did NOT beat TPM to $200 million. Spider-Man will beat TPM to $200 million by 3 or 4 days.
  3. Riley Man Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Dec 19, 1999
    star 5
    Because of the staggering opening, I think we might also see Spider-Man have some pretty staggering drop-offs -- at least when you look at it from a percentages point of view. I could see up to 50% less this weekend, and up to 70% less when AOTC opens. Keep in mind that even so, these numbers will be huge. After that it will start to drop at about 30%, in my estimation. It should make about $320M total, and thus fall about $40-$60M short of AOTC's total.

    If you look at it purely using percentages, Spidey has already seen two massive daily drop-offs. Movies rarely drop 25%+ on Sunday, and 65%+ on Monday like that, nor do they usually make less on a Sunday than a Friday. (Harry Potter is the one other movie that showed a similar drop-off) It doesn't really mean alot though when you look at the actual totals.
  4. DarthScully Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Oct 30, 2001
    star 4
    the thing that bothers me is that AOTC opens on a thursday, a non-holiday and people will be at work (well, most will be at work, although i know that quite a number will actually get some mysterious illness and call in sick that day :p). judging that FOTR, opening on a wednesday, did a little over $18M and HP, opening on a friday did $32M, i'm guessing $25M for AOTC, opening day (thursday). i don't know if it can cross the $100M mark after the weekend. perhaps.
  5. os2Kenobi Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Jun 14, 1999
    star 3
    I did my part to help make sure spidey doesn't beat aotc.. I downloaded it instead of watching it in theaters. Actually all my friends went to see it without me and I didn't want to go see it by myself.
  6. Ded-Man Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Jan 18, 2002
    star 2
    It's estimated that 2.6 million people will come down with the Skywalker Syndrome and call in sick to work next Thursday.

    Anyway, as knowledgeable as Jabbadabbado may be regarding BO, I just have to say - I don't get all this about "Well, little kids are going to be horrified by AOTC. Anakin kills some Tuskens. It's going to be too intense for family audiences." No way. This is SW. Kids will be going to see it all summer.

    And besides, kids don't appear to be phased by graphic violence and even gore. Like that guy said, when I went to see Blade Two, a movie so gross I had to look away from the screen a couple of times and I'm 26, there were little kids running all over the theater. It was annoying, actually, but they were fighting in the aisles and all this stuff, imitating Wesley Snipes. Most parents don't pay any attention to this kind of stuff.

    I have been to many intense, R-rated movies literally filled with kids.

    And there is no way in hell Spider-Man is going to beat Titanic.
  7. Marek the Jedi Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Sep 25, 1999
    star 4
    SOmebody mentionad that 11mil for monday is big if kids are at school and people at work..
    Of course it is !! but look at what TPM made :)

    TPM made almost 11mil = 10.881.272

    average per theatre for FIRST monday:

    TPM : 3.664 $
    SPIDERMAN : 3.053 $

    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/phantommay.html

    AND on far less screens and theatres !! TPM made amost same amount !!
    and the drop off for TPM was about -50.4%
    also much less than SPIDERMANs -65.3%

  8. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    Ded-Men, maybe we just need to agree on a definition for "little kids."

    George Lucas used Jar Jar and the cartoony podrace characters as a way of drawing in very small children (he marketed the gungans heavily around preschool tv shows in 99). By very small I mean 4, 5, 6 year olds. Preschool, kindergarten, maybe first grade. Most seven-year-olds and up are easily going to be able to process the violent imagery of AOTC, and nothign in AOTC is going to be as gruesome as the Green Goblin's death in Spider-Man.

    The two scenes that gave Spider-Man a PG-13 rating were the upside down wet t shirt kiss and the Green Goblin's demise. Without them, it would have had a PG rating, just like AOTC, so you can assume that they made a very deliberate effort to obtain the PG 13 rating.

    GL, on the other hand, wants parents to feel comfortable sending their elementary school children to AOTC. I'm sure the movie is appropriate for most of them. It's just the very little kids, who were part of TPM's target market, who are being excluded, so to speak, from AOTC. That's a good thing. TPM should have been a movie for 7 and up just like all the others.

    But I guess Lucas wanted to create an audience that would grow up with the series. The 5 year old who sees TPM is the 8 year old who sees AOTC and the 11 year old who sees Episode 3. That makes some sense, given the subject matter.
  9. Yoda_For_President Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Apr 19, 2002
    Here Is What BOXOFFICEGURU.COM Says:

    Last summer, movies opened wider than ever with almost every major title bowing in over 3,000 theaters only to witness second-weekend declines of 50% or more. $60M+ debuts seemed to occur every other weekend. This summer could very well see more of the same although Star Wars should avoid the sophomore slump with Memorial Day weekend falling on its second session. Its Thursday launch is rare in North America but common in many other countries like Australia, where most of the film was lensed, and Fox's global release will keep the studio's accounting eggheads working overtime. Anticipation for Episode II is rapidly growing and mixed reactions to its 1999 predecessor should not prevent fans from trying out the new installment. With more screens (a reported 5,500 prints) and higher ticket prices, Clones could reach the $1 billion worldwide mark that Phantom Menace failed to break.

    There is no doubt that Spider-Man will collect well over $200M before the blue text of the prologue to Episode II scrolls up its first east coast screen on May 16. In some recent years, the early-May event film has outgrossed the late-May one like with last year's The Mummy Returns beating Pearl Harbor, 1998's Deep Impact outgunning Godzilla, and 1996's Twister surging ahead of Mission: Impossible. While Spider-Man is sure to fly high trying to reach the triple-century mark, its chances of beating the eventual tally of Clones are small. Repeat business will decide which pic will climb higher and Star Wars fans, even with the not-so-loved Episode I, have proven that collecting ticket stubs for their Jedi flicks is still a top priority. Regardless, the two will pack auditoriums to capacity in May and expose moviegoers to trailers and posters for the season's biggest films which in turn should help keep the momentum going through August.

    Spider-Man's record-shattering opening came as a shock to most in the industry who never thought it was possible to gross so much in such a short time. Unfortunately for Fox, the bar has been raised for the George Lucas epic as expectations for Episode II have been greatly increased. Spider-Man gave fans what they wanted and offered something for both genders which helps its overall box office appeal. Attack of the Clones also mixes the action-adventure elements that guys love, with a romance that develops between the future Darth Vader and Senator Amidala. Despite the hokey love story, cheeseball romantic dialogue, and weak performance from Hayden Christensen, Episode II does truly deliver on the action front with dazzling battle scenes, amazing digital imagery, and intriguing story elements that allow the audience to continue the arc between this episode and the top-grossing installment - Episode IV.

    With less Jar Jar, and more Yoda (including one soon-to-be-classic scene which will have fans lining up again once the credits roll), Episode II will please die-hard fans much more than Episode I did. With an eight-year-old Anakin Skywalker and new characters like Qui-Gon Jinn, it was hard for fans to link Phantom Menace to the previous trilogy that they know and love. Episode II delivers a story that is much closer to A New Hope and actually builds interest, which commercially should lead to more repeat business, especially from older Star Wars fans. Episode I debuted with an explosive $105.7M over its opening five-day frame and went on to drop only 20-30% each subsequent weekend. Later in its run, young kids remained the core audience as most of the business came from weekend matinee shows. Episode II should keep those younger fans locked in and extract more loyalty from the older fans.


  10. jedimaster chris Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Nov 1, 1999
    star 2
  11. Covenant Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Apr 21, 2002
    star 1
    With all the humdrum over spider-man I found this very interesting, also considering I keep seeing people write that they dont think the average person is interested in Star Wars.

    The Scorpion King 75 3%
    Spider-Man 684 24%
    Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones
    1223 43%
    The Sum of All Fears 33 1%
    The Bourne Identity 28 1%
    Scooby-Doo 66 2%
    Windtalkers 25 1%
    Minority Report 166 6%
    Mr. Deeds 10 0%
    Men In Black 2 115 4%
    Road to Perdition 30 1%
    K-19: The Widowmaker 18 1%
    Austin Powers 3 129 5%
    XXX 78 3%
    Other Movies 174 6%
    This is with just under 2900 votes

    Well if this is any indication, AOTC is doing just fine.
  12. smauldookie Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Mar 5, 2002
    star 5
    i think spiderman will collect between $350-$400 mill. it has good word of mouth and is not decline that much. maybe cause it's in 3615 theaters.

    we will know by next tuesday if it will have leg to top TPM. if it declines more then 50% this weekend and averges $5 million on weekday next week, then i think it won't come close to TPM. But will top $300mill.

    AOTC opening in about 3300 theaters and 5500 screens(starwars record) will help it make $100-120 in its first 4 days. decline will be smaller compared to TPM, cause AOTC has more action and better movie overall(no matter what the critics say). AOTC will make a run for $400 million and i think it will reach it.

    people are going to see this movie no matter what critics think. cause its a visual film and has more action this time. and its a rollarcoster ride.
  13. Yoda_For_President Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Apr 19, 2002
    Critics have always slammed Star Wars movies with their first reviews.

    Star Wars fanatics, fans and overall public will see it because of:

    General Interest
    Positive Word Of Mouth


    Like I said before:

    AOTC: 400 - 450 Million
    Spider-Man: 300 - 350 Million
  14. smauldookie Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Mar 5, 2002
    star 5
    i heard a report that 20 million people saw spiderman last weekend. i wonder how many people will see AOTC in its first weekend?
  15. RobotPercy Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Jan 4, 2002
    star 2
  16. vansmak Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Mar 18, 1999
    star 1
    But here's the good news for Spider-man

    Harry Potter's first monday was 6.6 million, whereas spider-man's was 11 million.

    Harry Potter's first tuesday was 7.7 million, versus spidey's 10 million.

    The reason that i knew none of the big openers last year had any shot at TPM (Planet Of The Apes, Mummy Returns, Harry Potter) was that their monday's were nowhere near as big as TPM's.

    Apes - 8.2 mil
    Mummy - 4.9 mil
    Potter - 6.6 mil
    TPM -10.9 mil

    After the big rush to see it opening weekend, things died down.

    The amazing thing about TPM is that it's monday equals spidey's monday, even though it was on it's 6th day, not it's 4th....

    My boxoffice predictions are that AOTC will probably be around spidey's 3 day gross in it's first 4 days...

    Just using simple math, it seems like it's going to be in about 17% more theaters than TPM. Opening day plus weekend for TPM = 95 million, add 17% that's 111 million....Add 3 year ticket inflation, better reviews, and i'd say it that's a good ballpark.

    Total boxoffice for spider-man, 375-400 million, total for AOTC, 425-450 million

    -smak-
  17. whatwhat98 Jedi Padawan

    Member Since:
    May 8, 2002
    Opening weekend tally= $119 Million!!
  18. smauldookie Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Mar 5, 2002
    star 5
    $120 mill (may16-may19)
    $40 mill (may20-may23)
    $80 mill (may24-may27)
    $25 mill (may28-may30)
    $40 mill (may31-june2)

    total in first 18 days $305 million.



    take it to the bank!
  19. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    Box office guru predicts $66 million for Spider-Man this weekend. Without a doubt, it will smash the record for fastest to $200 million. It has a shot at fastest to $300 million as well, depending on how well it does.

    I'm guessing: $69 - $71 million. In its second week, still one of the largest weekend takes in history. It will make more its second week than Rush Hour 2, Mummy Returns, Planet of the Apes and possibly Mission Impossible 2 made on their opening weekends.

    Question: Is AOTC critic proof. Will the mixed reviews hurt the opening weekend take? I say nothing will prevent $120 million in the first four days. Word of mouth is what's going to count, and word of mouth is going to be great folks.

  20. DarthScully Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Oct 30, 2001
    star 4

    Is AOTC critic proof?


    i think judging from TPM's numbers, SW is pretty much critic proof. of course i am referring to how it will do in the long run. i already know quite a number of people who aren't going to see it in the opening weekend due to varying reasons (TPM, avoid the crowds etc). but those who will see it (yes including those who didn't like TPM) are set to see it either opening day or weekend. i say 50% chance of the moviegoers who flocked to see TPM will be back for AOTC
  21. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    In my mind it really boils down to whether the media thesis, that the public in general was disappointed by TPM, is correct. If the media is right, then AOTC should not be critic-proof. The public is going to be hyper critical and unless they're convinced by all available evidence that it's worth seeing, then many will stay away.

    On the other hand if, as most fans claim, the media got it wrong, and that most people who saw TPM liked it (there's a lot of evidence for this), then the public at large should be eager to go see AOTC, and it will open huge and get positive word of mouth if, as everyone seems to agree, it is better than TPM. Critical reviews won't affect box office at all.
  22. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    Spiderman beat my $68-$71 million prediction, falling only 37% in its second weekend. Spiderman also beat TPM and Harry Potter to $200 million.

    We can only hope that AOTC can do better in its first weekend than Spiderman did in its second weekend.

    In the meantime, Spiderman now has a decent shot at beating TPM's domestic box office take.

  23. VaderSkywalker Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    May 12, 2002
    star 1
    If AOTC gross opening is below everyone's prediction can we blame

    a. the bootleg copies or

    b. the World Cup fever...?

  24. Admiral Hackbar Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Dec 14, 1999
    star 2
    World Cup Fever?

    Most people in the US don't know what the world cup is.
  25. JarJarIsBoba Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Sep 24, 2000
    star 4
    Spiderman beat my $68-$71 million prediction, falling only 37% in its second weekend. Spiderman also beat TPM and Harry Potter to $200 million.

    Actually, Spidey fell a lot more than I'd thought considering the amount of Spidey gushers I've seen online. And you have to take into consideration that Spidey had really no new competition. Only "Unfaithful" and "The New Guy." Not exactly heavy hitters in my book.

    To me, the outlook for AOTC is getting better and better. Spidey opened two weeks earlier than AOTC just to guarantee a financial windfall. And Scorpion King opened early to just avoid the entire summer in general.
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