Episode 2 Opening Gross Predictions

Spidey will break Titanic's domestic intake.


TAKE THAT TO THE BANK



AOTC will come in a respectable 7th or 8th.

Normally, I don't partipate in the gross predictions...but I with everyone talking about Spidermans's success...I just had to get this out.

Even though I found Spiderman is a good movie, its very existance epitomizes this over-dependency on opening weekend which permeates Hollywood studio thinking today.

The budget was somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 million, and Sony spends another 50 million on marketing.

Today, for big budgeted films, studios double their film's budget with marketing costs. All this 'hype' is to entice viewers to see it opening weekend which can make or break a film. Gone are the days when a high profile movie depended on good word of mouth.

Now, studios spend millions to ensure that a film has a great opening weekend, and essentially know how much money they can make minimal.

I guess I feel so much money spent on hype should be used on the movie instead. I'm glad Lucas has decided to go that route this time. He's keeping the hype down, and is in the business of "selling a story". To me, if AOTC does well (meets or exceeds b.o expectations) without spending so much money on hype demonstrates to me the power of the force more then anything that the marketing department could do.

My two cent.

Oh, yeah, how much will EPII make? 400+ million...maybe even more with good word of mouth...it can sink that boat!

Spidey will break Titanic's domestic intake.
TAKE THAT TO THE BANK
AOTC will come in a respectable 7th or 8th.

Although Spiderman is a good film, it will take something better than that with wider appeal to overtake Titanic...either that or something that will once again attract those fanatical teen girls to watch a movie 14 times!

I really want it to happen but I dont see Atack of the Clones doing anything near spiderman. if you look at the polls alone spiderman still beats AOTC by a big margin. And I think those polls mean alot. Spiderman just made another 10 million this weekend. AOTC isnt going to do over 200,000,000 in two weeks! But I will keep my fingers crossed and go see as much as I can!

AOTC is going for the long-haul. NOT only it's first two weeks.

I heard that Lucas will put it out longer than TPM (which had only 3 months of release). 4-5 months would sound good to me.
Remember, Titanic was out for a year. Now, it's a dead commodity in video/DVD sales.

If I was Sony/Columbia, I'd pull Spider-Man around the $400m mark. Overexposure is not good at all. It will have a more lucrative life on video/DVD.

And, to me, polls are about as scientific as a water stick.

I don't see AOTC coming close to Spidey after the Summer is over.

But hell, Indiana Jones 4 will beat Spidey in 2004.

And some super hyped movie with the "hottest" actor will beat Indiana Jones 4 and etc. and etc.

SW had its chance. TPM was primed to be the Century's most powerful and BOOMBASTIC film ever in the history of life. But Lucas fumbled the film into a high grossing nonsense.

There's gonna be a heavily hyped super anticipated movie easily breaking 200 million in perhaps a weekend.

SW is just diluted right now. I'm seeing less and less people interested and caring. Maybe in the boards but not in the overall public. I guess it is a dying myth.

AOTC will be good competition for SM.

Indy 4 is NOT going to be made before Ep III.

AOTC will probably pull in $62.7 million its first weekend (not counting Thursday where it will make $36.2 million).

It will surprisingly make $120 million the following weekend and then $150 million when MIB2 comes out. MIB2 will make $3.57 when some change is found inside one of the theaters in which it was supposed to be showing.

RB

First big drop for event films like spiderman happen in the third weekend not the second. Best example of this is Harry Potter first 90m, second 57m, third 23m and that happen with very little competition. Now spiderman faces his third weekend against a huge film, meaning that exhibitors will take away probably half Spiderman screens to make room for Clones. So I expect a drop of 50% or more for Spiderman this weekend.

This a very unusual situation because this two movies are aimed to the same demographic.

I expect AOTC to gross 36m in thursday and 90m over the weekend. That will put Clones just ahead or behind Spiderman first four day gross.

Then comes memorial day weekend when i expect AOTC to make 75m over the four day period.With a total of 235m.

I also think that AOTC will remain #1 for 4 weeks, given the fact that its only strong competition for that time slot is The sum of all fears which a don't think will top AOTC.
Why? not Ford...and even with Ford this franchise never open really strong. They were slow moneymaking movies

Then overall i think Clones and spiderman will be head to head in a close run. But the real winner is AOTC why?.. This is a fifth film guys...when spiderman 5 can even be considered to be the box office king of any summer, after 25 years then and only then we will talk.

This is a fifth film guys...when spiderman 5 can even be considered to be the box office king of any summer, after 25 years then and only then we will talk. -denseyjedi

Excellent Point!

A Star Wars movie has never failed to be the top grossing film in the year it opened.

AOTC is in a unique and unfortunate position, however. It opens in a weekend in which Spider-Man is almost guaranteed to make at least $40 million. You have to wonder how theaters are making room for both these movies.

With Spider-Man as a viable choice, many people will see it this weekend again in order to avoid the AOTC lines. The end result is that Spider-Man may even get a boost this weekend. Instead of dropping 37% (last weekend) it may only drop 30%.

So I predict $40 - $44 million for Spider-Man on AOTC's first weekend.

AOTC: $75 million Fri-Sun, $25 million on Thursday = $100 million Thur-Sun.

At any rate, the combined total of Spider-Man and AOTC will make this weekend the single most lucrative weekend for movies in the history of the industry.

First off...It will be very interesting to see the actual numbers for this past weekend with Spiderman. I expect the numbers to drop because they did not take into account Mothers Day which in the past has never been a big movie going day. Sunday nights are never as big as Friday and Saturday so matinees are the big business. But how many of us were out having a nice lunch with your wife and kids, or mom, or grandmother? I suspect a great deal.

Secondly...Yes Spiderman is doing well but honestly how can anyone think that it will out do AOTC let alone Titanic. It will have a huge drop this weekend. Theaters will be shifting the prints so that AOTC is at the biggest screens with the most seats. So even if you dont see a drop in total screens the movie will be playing in the 2nd tier screens in the multiplexes.

Yes Spiderman opened in 7500 screens and AOTC looks like 6000 or so screens. But the ones the 1500 that make up the difference are the smaller screens and/or smaller theaters.

Looking at my local 30 screen AMC theater. Already 2 of the 5 Midnight showings are sold out and all the evening showings on May 16th are sold out.

In summary for AOTC
Ticket Prices are higher around $1.00 to $1.50
Reviews are much better then TPM.
The hype has not made people wary that the first weekend is already sold out like the media made it sound when TPM opened.

Thursday $40 million
Friday $40 million
Saturday $45 million
Sunday $30 million

$150 million opening weekend

Keith, that's opimistic. I will say this: the negative reviews have not really had much airing on the tv. Most televised reviews, with the obvious exception of Roger Ebert, have said only good things about AOTC. The capactiy of a paper like the New York Times to affect the opening weekend fo a moview like AOTC is probably negligable.

I saw two evening news reports from the Chicago-area charity premiere, and the fan reviews were almost all wildly enthusiastic. The news reporter at Chicago's channel 2 was almost giddy about the movie. It was funny and charming to see.

I think AOTC is going to do very, very well with audiences. It is not going to be a box office bomb. But neither, I think, is it going to do the kinds of numbers that many Star Wars fans are expecting.

TPM was a watershed. I believe that as a consequence of TPM, Star Wars has become "just another movie franchise" in the eyes of the general public. And AOTC is just not going to be good enough to overcome the dimished reputation of the series.

This is a fifth film guys...when spiderman 5 can even be considered to be the box office king of any summer, after 25 years then and only then we will talk. -denseyjedi

Never were there truer words spoken...

Take this to the bank. Spidey/X-Men films could become the next James Bond franchise. So in 25 years it wouldn't surprise me if Spider-man 12: Venom's Vengenance or X-men 12: Rise of the Sentinels were released. And as long as we are talking franchises, later this year Star Trek X will be released which is one more movie than the Star Wars franchise if Lucas went ahead with the idea of producing a sequel trilogy. Star Wars ISN'T the only game in town boys and girls. Remember that.

Also, just because I said that makes me no more or no less a Star Wars fan either

I think your prediction is too high as well Keith. Let's say AOTC opens on 6000 screens. Spidey did $15000/scrn. Let's say AOTC is just below that, w/ the less hype, at $14,000/scrn. That's $84 million friday-sunday, w/ the reduced # of screens.

Now lets take Thursday into account. If you broke spidey down by day, it was probably $5750/scrn on fri, $6000 on sat, and $3250/scrn on sunday. AOTC's thursday will probably be $5250/scrn. That makes $31.5 million on Thursday.

Total Thursday to sunday- 115.5 million.
If AOTC = spiderman's per screen average, we are looking at 125 million.

Star Wars? Spiderman? All a moot point.

The Matrix Reloaded will break all records next summer, including Spidey's opening day record.

The Matrix Reloaded will be rated "R" and has a very narrow audience. It will be lucky to break $250 million.

Jjay, I took it to the bank and the check bounced.

hmmm, i'm skeptical about that Flanders.

Opening Day=$32 million
Opening Weekend=$102 million

Total for run=$397 million(US); $1.2 billion (worldwide)

first, Spiderman will not beat Titanic, only in your dreams. IF this happens to turn into a disney world land than it will becuase in Disney world, dreams come true. lol
Anyhow, Spiderman will do well, but AOTC will be #1 of the year.

If noone thinks peopel are going to see it,

fact: according to both the UK and USA advnaced ticket sales in both countries are ahead of Harry Potter.
At my local cinimas, I checked out 8 diffrent theaters jsut to be sure, they all have had sold out shows for opening day, and now they even have sold out ones for Friday, and on e of them is in a digital cinima and already has at least 1 Saturday show sold out.

by the time we come to the weekend, there will be no stopping it

Opening Day;34 million
Weekend;80 million

So hows the gross going? Did it beat Spiderman?

This thread deserves to be upped.

My first prediction:

Thursday: 30.3
Weekend: 76

Actual:
Thursday: 30.1
Weekend: 80

Not too shabby considering that was at least two weeks ago.