Episode 2 Opening Gross Predictions

Spidey will do well it's first two weeks. But the SW hype will kick in BIGTIME and Spidey will die quick..but painless...seeing that it'll probably do about $120 million those first two weeks.

SW is more known..a better movie and a sequel is more anticipated.

A Thursday opening will carry it far. Good reviews will help. The buzz is that most of the critics are loving it and we should expect good reviews.

My prediction...

Opening weekend....$92 million.

Overall (summer)...$380 million

 

My prediction:

Thursay: 22 million
Friday-Sunday: 70-80 million

 

I will go see it thursday, friday, saturday, and sunday. It will make a ton of $$$

 

I really don't understand this competition. To my mind, Spiderman won't gross anything near AOTC. It'll have a strong two weeks...probably in the 150 million neighbourhood but once AOTC opens...bye bye Spidey!

I seriously doubt Spiderman will gross more than LOTR domestic. If you look at ANY superhero film, I think the best financial success was BATMAN at 207 million. Granted, ticket prices are higher, but I honestly can't see Spiderman grossing any more than 275 million domestic...whereas AOTC should easily reach the 350 million mark within three months.

Spiderman isn't anywhere near as good as Batman anyway and consistently loses in "favourite superhero" polls to Batman and Superman any day. I have a Cinescape one from 5 years ago to prove it.

So, let Spidey have the hype. I'll see it in a week or so to avoid the comic book geeks but it won't be as crazy as AOTC.

 

First Day = 30 million
Final = 650 million - I think AotC will completely put the public back into awe of Star Wars again. Just my $00.02

 

it will make more then $60 million in 4 days.
look if rush hour2,planet of the apes can make over 60 in 3 days then i pretty sure AOTC can make that much 2 1/2 days.

it would be considered by the media and all who follow boxoffice stats that $60mill weekend a bomb. remember when pearl harbor made only $75 in four days last year. everybody thought that it would make $75 in 3 days& close to $100 in 4 days last memorial weekend cause it had huge hype.

if aotc makes $60 or less for the weekend then it wouldn't come close to TPM $431 gross. and it might make less then spiderman or MIB2 in total gross.

but that will never happen. it will not average $15mill a day. more like $25mill a day and will break records. starwars has millions of faithful followers and millions more who like it.

 

I know one thing, this will be the biggest movie year ever. Start the season off with two great movies will bring the movie going public, that electric vibe will be there.(head out of the gutter people)

Spiderman and StarWars will do very very well. I don't care who wins in the box office though. As long as I can put a great Star Wars dvd in and go to sleep watching it, I'll be happy. Like a good bed time story.

 

you guys are crazy about 60 mil for the weekend, hannibal did 60 mil in 3 days. Apes did 65 mil in 3 days. for opening day AOTC will do around 20 on a thursday, then go around 25 fri-sunday for opening weekend of 90-95 in 4 days.

 

who ever gets close to the actual bo gross gets a starwars t-shirt from TFN.













that would be so cool. i don't own a starwars t-shirt and would like to win one.

 

I wasn't suprised back when TPM came out, where it made 28 million, a new record, but I was quite underwhelmed by it's #2 all time opening of about 76 million? Having the Lost World beat Star Wars is a little sad really. But this time I think it will do the same amount of business.

Harry Potter was a complete suprise. I knew it would do well, but not that well. Even more disapointing that a spectacular movie like LOTR made half of Potter's gross only a month later. Of course, LOTR is a masterpiece next to Potter, and certainly deserves it's long running substantially larger gross.

 

Oh well might as well throw my hat into the ring

Thurs: TPM had 5.7 million people go see the movie on opening day at an average of around $5.
This time I guess that 4.5 million will go at $6.25 on average. $28M is a good guess. Could go as high as $35M

Fri: Typically a good day. Harry Potter did $32M. This movie is shorter, so more screenings. But its also second day. I give it $33M.

Sat: Usually sees a spike of 33% or so. This is impossible since it's already near max. I'll give it $37 million. HP did $37M but this movie is shorter.

Sun: Normally the same to slightly lower than Friday. However Canada is a holiday (Victoria Day) and that should help numbers a bit. I'll say $30 mill.

So this means....

$98M in 3 days.
$128M in 4.

Monday is usually a big drop off, but alot of Canucks have the day off. HP droped to 6.6, LOTR to 7.3. I'll say $9M

Tues: Usually sees a slight increase. But good word of mouth, will see it go to $12M

Wed: should level off but its getting closer to the US long weekend so it'll go up to $13

Thurs: Add another $15

Fri: $22M (HP did $22)
Sat: $27M
Sun: $24M (long weekend)
Mon: $18M

It'll break $200 mill in 9 or 10 days.

 

It'll break $200 mill in 9 or 10 days.

There is a bigger possibility of Ariel Sharon and Yasser Arafat declaring their mutual love and announcing their wedding date than AOTC's breaking the double century in a week and a half.

 

Harry Potter broke 200 million in 2 weeks didnt it?

Yup, $202,109,000 on day 15.

 

I'LL BET MY CAR THAT AOTC WILL BREAK $200 ON MONDAY MAY 27TH. on its 12th day of release.
hell if TPM can do it then surely AOTC will tie it or better it by a day.

 

harry potter did not break $200 in two weeks. it came close. like $180-190mill.
TPM holds record for fastest:
$100mill (5days)
$200mill (13days)
$300mill (28days)

i hope AOTC breaks these records.

 

As much as I would love to see AOTC break Potters record, there is not a chance. Potter opened up on almost a record munber of screens, only Shrek tops it, and Lucas is too paticular about the quailty of the theater to get close to Potters screen count. Potter had approx 3600. AOTC will be on about 3000, like TPM. Its gross for the four days though will still break a hundred million, avering 25 million a day (26/28/28/20=102). The only reason Potter did not was the fourth day was a regular work day.

As for 200 million in 12 days (Monday the 27th), yeah, but only if the buzz is good from critics and so forth.

And Spider-man will do like the original Mummy in the respect that it held strong against TPM because it got spill over from sell outs of TPM. But Spider-man will not come close to AOTC total BO. Hell I imagine by the end of May AOTC will be equal to Spider-man in BO even though it opened two weeks before.

 

You people are insane. Attack of the Clones is darker, longer, and a sequel to a terrible movie. It wont come close to Phantom Menace because there is hardly any hype at all. Only people who really care are the fanatics. Episode 1, on the other hand, was an event movie. The first Star Wars flick in whatever amount of years. Fan or not, you had to see it.


I say look at the totals TPM got on opening day and opening weekend.... then reduce the totals by at least 10 million.

 

Nah...

AOTC will beat TPM partly because there isn't much hype.

Oh and inflation. Can't forget inflation.

My guess first movie to make $100 mil in three days. (maybe not really but hey it could happen)

 

100 million in 3 days? No way. Okay, i know many of you love Star Wars to death and you want it to blow everything out of the water. But, please try and be realistic. Sometimes I think Lucas put a Jedi mind trick on you all!

 

I agree with what SmaulDookie said on the previous page - that the all time US figure of 600 million will be quite difficult to reach. It's the whole 'Leo factor' that made Titanic #1. If AOTC does surpass Titanic, it will either be because of inflation or because of a new phenomenon known as the "Hayden factor."

The recent trend in blockbusters is a huge opening weekend followed by a serious downhill plumet (with a few exceptions of course). Repeat business comes with big time fans but there are a finite number of those.

-MJ

 

Well you might not of picked it up in my first post but I was joking

In all reality I have no basis to judge on.

A. It is Star Wars.
B. There is that third day which kind ***** things up.

 

it will gross almost as much as spiderman cause of the limited amounts of screens that it can be shown on. Spider-man is on 3600 screens with multiple prints. AOTC, cause of Lucas's restrictions will be shown on only 3000 with less prints. I know at the theater i work at, we are getting three prints of spider-man, but we are only get two prints of AOTC because we only have DTS in two theaters.
Spider-man 80 million
AOTC 75 three days, 35 million first day(thurs)
first four days, 110 million

 

I got this from an article at Foxnews.com:

In fact, Columbia Pictures should be congratulating itself. By getting Spider-Man out to theaters before Star Wars: Attack of the Clones, the Sony-owned studio will be cashing in to the tune of millions before George Lucas steamrolls over them.

"...steamrolls over them."

 

I've got a bet running with a friend that AOTC will do more than LOTR opening weekend. Does anyone know what LOTR did its opening weekend?

 

It will be hard to compare the two (LOTR/AOTC), since they're opeing/opened on different days of the week.

LOTR made: $47,211,490 on its opening weekend.

Check out this website. It has all kinds of cool box office stats.