Episode 2 Opening Gross Predictions

Discussion in 'Attack of the Clones' started by CarbonKnight, May 1, 2002.

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  1. Kelyne Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    May 25, 1999
    star 3
    I think Aotc will will do incredible on its opening weekend, it could possibly match or eclipse Spiderman. Sony did not think Spiderman would gross 114 million, they were thinking more on the lines of 70-90 million. The buzz on ep.2 is growing now at a feverish rate and Star Wars has a built in name. It could very well gross more then anyone thinks possible on its first weekend. Its strange, but I am at loss to predict how much the final gross will be. Will it have legs and get the repeat viewings that Titanic did? Will the positive buzz get people flocking too the theaters. The whole Phantom Menace backlash hovers over this whole affair. I am not just talking what people thought of ep. 1, but the onslaught products and hype that really turned a lot of folks off.

  2. the-one Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Jan 11, 2002
    THERE IS NO WAY ! aotc will make more than Spiderman!
    If i wasn't a SW fan I wouldn't be made intersted by those lame as tv spots!
    the most interesting one is the cheetos commercial!

    but i believe that it will do good in the long run and Lucas will make enough money to make ep:3.
  3. Kelyne Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    May 25, 1999
    star 3
    I am huge Spiderman fan, but I felt let down by the movie. The crowd I saw it with did not even clap at the end. If Ep.2 is as epic as people are saying, it will clean Spiderman's clock. It just was not that special.
  4. SWfan2002 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 28, 2002
    star 4
    Well, I've seen two AOTC commercials on television within the past hour. Perhaps Fox/LFL was not advertising before because they didn't want to compete with all the Spiderman commercials, etc. Now that SM has been released, they may go all out to create hype for May 16th. Combine that with a steady stream of positive reviews and I think things could turn out well.

    Edit: Also, I think part of the success of SM has to do with the fact that people are hungry for a good movie. This could also be a positive sign for AOTC's b.o. numbers.
  5. Import_Jedi Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 20, 2001
    star 6
    Remember, this is SW we're talking about. It's unlikely, but not out of the question.

    According to today's Calendar section in the Los Angeles Times, which had a sneak preview of summer films, there was only mild interest in AOTC by the "Summer Movie Posse" (a.k.a. a group of loser opinionated teenagers), who thought the trailers were boring and needed more than "laser beams" to entice them to watch the film

    I am huge Spiderman fan, but I felt let down by the movie. The crowd I saw it with did not even clap at the end.

    You were with a dull audience. The audience I watched it with not only clapped at the end, but even when MJ finally kisses Peter Parker and when Parker decides to chase down the robber who killed his uncle (OOPS, did I spoil the movie for the rest of you? EH.)
  6. JBFett Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Feb 15, 2002
    star 4
    AL,

    LoL that was hilarious....I was laughin..

    Anyhow...SM got the jump..WHY..because it was the biggest ad campaign for any movie I have ever seen in my life! and on top of that it got some good reviews...but in my opinion it lacks revisit value...the action was pretty dissapointing. the majority I think will not return except for the fanatics. The drop in BO talley will be significant but to about 40-60 million which is still really big.

    AOTC doesnt need a big bang of an opening..it draws back people like no other film in history. Fans will see it anywhere from 3-20 times plus...no spidey fan would do that. Look at these boards, some people plan to see it 4 times on the first day! So AOTC will get a solid 70-80 million the first week and keep it high during the week and the second weekend...and it will keep its numbers high in the following weekends...it has no real competition until the summer..and even those movies wont kill the AOTC machine.
  7. JediStrider Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Feb 18, 2002
    star 3
    Well, I don't know about you guys, but Clone War was attached to Spider-Man both times I saw it at two different theatres. The first time I saw the movie, SM got huge applause, but the Clone War trailer got even more applause. It felt so good to hear all these movie goers clapping for the movie. I think that if Clone War is attached to most of the SM prints, there will be some huge business come the 16th. But we'll just have to see.
  8. Icebreaker Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 20, 2001
    star 4
    I am suprised by the lack of faith some people have on this site...I agree that AOTC will NOT match Spidey, but I have a hunch it will come close because people didnt expect Spidey to get as much as it did in much the same way people dont think AOTC will get as much as it WILL...Plus, people are saying that opening on a Thursday is BAD, however here is how I look at it compared to Spidey:

    Spidey:
    Huge three day opening but SIGNIFICANT drop-off on MONDAY, hence a 4-day opening of about $122 Million (at most)

    Attack of the Clones:
    BIG opening day $28-33 Million, I dont think it opening on a Thursday makes much of a difference...People still LOVE to see things opening day! Then it will have a $30 some odd million FRIDAY and Weekend, thus matching Spidey's FOUR day total

    Then of course like everyone has pointed out, AOTC will win in the long run! But lets give Spidey PROPs for giving AOTC some competition...

    EDIT: Some spelling errors :)
  9. Kelyne Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    May 25, 1999
    star 3
    Import_Jedi,
    dull, possibly, enlightened maybe, too high expectations most likely (including myself). At the same time I had incredible expectations for Fellowship of the ring and I loved it. I just hated how Greed Goblin was played. I loved him in pulp, but hated him as movie charicter.
  10. Dagobah_Dude Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Nov 9, 2001
    star 3
    I believe that AOTC will have greater staying power than SPIDERMAN no matter what it's opening numbers are(and they're going to be huge).
    I don't know how Spidey is going to do over the long haul. I enjoyed it greatly(though I agree with the criticisms of the Goblin's costume-blech!) but I saw it with three other people and only one liked it unreservedly. The audience response was also mixed. So we'll see; it was overhyped the way TPM and the first BATMAN were, and that may cause some backlash.
  11. JBFett Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Feb 15, 2002
    star 4
    I dont want to turn this into a spidey discussion...but the movie was sort of flat.

    It had some great moments, the best of which was the last 10 second webslinging and the spider sense in the school hallways, but overall the movie didnt have that umph that say Batman had. The action was underdone...and that was dissappointing especially with GG as the villain(i still hate that suit). I found myself not caring so much for the characters and feeling very clostrophobic..there wasnt enough in the movie..it leaves you wanting much more. I wouldve loved to see more JJ Jameson, Curt Connors, and all the other secondary characters that make Spiderman great...it was all absent. THe movie was too closed minded.
  12. JediStrider Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Feb 18, 2002
    star 3
    Oh man, I loved Dafoe's Goblin. He was one of my favorite parts of the movie. I thought it was great, but I don't think it will have the replay value of AOTC.

    About the comic book movies falling the next week, yes, they do, but Spidey has no real competition next week, so it will fall slightly but not much. This isn't just any comic book movie, this is the most aggressive ad campaign/ hype since The Phantom Menace, so expect business to remain pretty big.

    That is, until the 16th :D
  13. Verry Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Feb 27, 2002
    star 3
    overall i like Spider Man, but i too was expecting it to be more epic. Something more, It's hard to explain. The effects when parker does chase his Unlces umm, you know? well, when he does, the effects sucked. And they went so close to his eyes, and you could tell they sucked.
  14. MINI_YODA Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Apr 25, 2002
    star 2
    The mathematics say that almost impossible for AOTC to top Spiderman. SM opened on 7500 screens (seems to be a standard tactic by Sony to put a movie on as many screens as possible) while AOTC will open on 2/3 of the amount. Lucasfilm said they were aiming for 5000.

    That means in order for AOTC to match SM it has to average over $16,000 per theatre that shows it (assuming around 2500-2600 theatres show it). For the single day total it would have to do over $18000.

    But everyone and their sister knows that if GL opened on as many screens as SM he would hit $50 million on opening day.

    BUT GL would rather make sure that movie-goers get the best possible movie experience than trying to make as much money as possible. That's why he's got so many rules that movie houses have to follow. And you know what? Good for him.
  15. Yoda's_Roomate Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Feb 8, 2000
    star 4
    I hope AOTC doesnt match SM so that people here can lower their too-high expectations a little bit.
  16. smauldookie Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Mar 5, 2002
    star 5
    AOTC WILL NOT BREAK SPIDERMAN RECORDS.

    IT WILL NOT OPEN IN 3600+ THEARTERS AND WILL NOT BE SHOWING IN 7500+ SCREEN.

    IT WILL BEAT ALL MOVIES THIS SUMMER IN TOTAL BO GROSS...
  17. Attacking-Newbie Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Mar 6, 2002
    star 1
    There wasn't a single action sequence that got me pumped up in spider-man. My heart was racing just reading about the action scenes in aotc. Spidey would be a classic if it had better action. I don't think Spidey has any staying power. I think it will do 215-230 million. I think people will come back to see Attack of the clones just to see Yoda wipe the floor with Dooku again. I really have no idea what AotC will do opening day or weekend. Not as much as Spidey because of the screen count, but in the end I predict AotC will do 650-700 million.
  18. jedimaster chris Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Nov 1, 1999
    star 2
    I liked spiderman, but was dissapointed by it, stupid hype!!

    but I just got bac from Celeration 2 and have seen 8 minutes of AOTC footage and Yoda fighting all on digital projectors and this movie will be AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!!!
  19. Attacking-Newbie Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Mar 6, 2002
    star 1
    I wasn't hyped for spidey at all. Attack of the clones has killed my hype for any other movie so far this year.
  20. Timen_Es_Rath Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Apr 3, 2002
    star 2
    Does anyone of the numbers from ep1 on first day? Just curious...
  21. NRDigital Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jul 23, 2000
    star 4
    This is a bit off topic, but I think that if AOTC is widely viewed as a success by general people, SW fans, and the Box Office, Episode III has a good chance (with the right amount of hype, less than TPM, but more than AOTC) to shatter all previous records, and hold them for just about as long as ANH did, which was something like 0 years, right?

    (Wow, I can't beleive that was one sentance. . .)
  22. smauldookie Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Mar 5, 2002
    star 5
    i think aotc will make the following:

    may16-$30
    may17-$25
    may18-$30
    may19-$25

    total $110

    may20(mon)$10
    may21(tue)$8
    may22(wed)$7
    may23(thur)$7
    may24(fri)$15
    may25(sat)$20
    may26(sun)$18
    may27(mon)$15 memorial day

    first 12 days $210 million.

    i hope it makes more then my prediction.
  23. Attacking-Newbie Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Mar 6, 2002
    star 1
    You know what? Sleep is a good thing, so goodnight all. Maybe in my dreams i'll have a vision of the final boxoffice gross and will share it all with you.
  24. Lord_Homer Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Apr 30, 2002
    star 4
  25. smauldookie Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Mar 5, 2002
    star 5
    first day for TPM was $28 million which was beaten by HP first & second day and that record was beaten by spiderman on friday and again on saturday.
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