Episode 2 Opening Gross Predictions

Discussion in 'Attack of the Clones' started by CarbonKnight, May 1, 2002.

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  1. Darth-KrayzieBone Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Nov 19, 2001
    star 3
    One key factor is the amount of theaters & screens AOTC is shown on. if GL loosens his belts and puts the movie on as many screens as possible it has a chance to beat Spider-Mans opening day record and weekend record.

    Sell-outs would be great but you dont want spill-over from our crowds going into Spider-mans hands...
  2. SWfan2002 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 28, 2002
    star 4
    Actually, lots of sell outs may make the general public, who know nothing about how many screens a movie opens on, think that a movie is more popular than it really is.

    So lets see, for AOTC we may have:

    Great reviews + positive word of mouth + many sell outs.

    Looks good to me, as long as I'm not a victim of a sell out.
  3. Rupert_Pupkin Jedi Youngling

    Member Since:
    Mar 10, 2002
    star 3
    Attack of the Clones will not come close to Spider-Man for opening day and opening weekend records. Not even The Phantom Mencace did. Like I posted in another thread, TPM was the first original SW movie in 16 years and had 10 times the hype Episode 2 has now.


    BTW, Spider-Man was a fantasic movie. I can't believe someone here was bashing the flick because it didn't have enough action. How old are you? Blame your attention deficit disorder and not the movie! Spidey was great because of the likable characters and a good story. Also, the humor was perfect. Wonderful setup for the movies to follow.
  4. DARTHPIGFEET Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 24, 2001
    star 4
    I don't have the numbers to compare to 1999, but I will tell you one thing. There are more theatres, and the ticket prices are higher than they were in 99.

    Notice how these new records have been breaking every year since 99. In 2001 you had some heavy hitters who out did each other. Start with Mummy Returns then Shrek, then JP3 and then Planet of the Apes all doing in the range of 70 to 80 million there opening weekends and then have those numbers cut in half by 50%.

    So take Spider-man which has a big following and as has been building up for some months now. They will likely do 100+ million this weekend. Next week it will probably be up to 170 million. Then it will reach 200 million when EP II comes in. It will have 2 weeks of glory and don't get me wrong it will do good during when EP II plays.

    So I see EP II doing the following numbers for the opening weekends.

    Opening day: 40+

    By the end of the weekend it will be close to or be at 100 million. The deal though is that average moviegoers may wait until the next week, because they don't want to fight getting tickets, seats, etc for SW. Some will still be a bit turned off by TPM, and some simply don't care anymore.

    All in all I see it doing just as good business as Spider-Man. It all depends on how many screens, and how many shows each theatre can squeeze in a day. Spider-man was 121 minutes with 10 minutes of previews so 131 minutes.

    EP II is clocking in at last I heard 136 minutes or 2hr and 16 minutes. So it's longer than Spiderman which limits how many shows, however it can make this up by having the film on more screens. PLUS you have some of us who are in search for a DLP theatre, and some theatres will actually loose a bit of steam as a result of that.

    In the end I see Spider-man doing a grand total here in the U.S. 345 million dollars.
    Worldwide add 300 million.

    AOTC 400 million total. Worldwide add another 300 million
  5. admiral jimmy Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Nov 14, 1999
    star 4
    Head to premiere.com there´s a poll about SPido vs SW vs anyone boxoffice...
  6. paulkenobijedi01 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Sep 20, 2000
    star 1
    i can see it now....


    NEXT STAR WARS MOIVE TAKES IN BIG BOOM AT BOX OFFICE
    today is a day long remember for all star wars fans, as the next Instalment of Gorge Lucas "Star Wars", Episode II Attack of the Clones shatter Spider-Man's 41 millon on opening day as Episdoe II takes in 58 Millon makeing it the alltime high moive ever.


    thats what i'm hopeing for
  7. BLKNIGHT18 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Oct 12, 2001
    star 4
    58 million, what are u smokin? lol

    I wonder if GL will now open up more theatres to SW, I hope he doesn't. SW will do probably 32 from thurs-sat, and 20 on sunday to get to $116mil, barely beating out Spiderman's 3 day gross total.
  8. MINI_YODA Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Apr 25, 2002
    star 2
    It's not gross that's going to be the important indicator, it'll be theater or better yet screen averages. That'll go further to telling whether people liked the movie or not.

    Also expect one of the largest drop offs in movie history when Spidey drops fro 3600+/7500 to 3300/4000 once AOTC comes out. I normally don't like Sony's tactics but I have to give them kudos on a good move here. Saturating the market place this early to get as much money as possible now before AOTC hits was a great idea.
  9. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    smauldookie's prediction is dead-on in my opinion. AOTC has no chance of beating Spiderman. Why? PG rating ensures an audience skewed younger. Therefore the average ticket price for AOTC will be lower than for Spider-man. Also the longer running time will cut down marginally on available showings. Also, the Thursday opening day will cannibalize ticket sales from the weekend.

    And don't forget that even with moderate-high dropoffs, Spider-Man will still take a huge chunk of the box office its third weekend. I think the combination of great reviews and overwhelmingly positive response from the public will mean that Spider-Man will not drop more than 35-40% its third weekend, meaning maybe $30-40 million.

    So you'll end up with a Friday-Sunday total for AOTC slightly lower than Harry Potter's opening weekend. Maybe $80 million.

    AOTC may have better legs than Spider-Man, however. And certainly Spider-Man is not going to have an advantage over AOTC at the foreign box office. Spider-Man is not a pop culture icon outside the U.S.
  10. Ugly_Dookling Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Feb 8, 2002
    star 3
    Who cares how much these movies make. I just care about the quality. Spiderman rocked!!! I am sure AOTC will too and if I enjoy myself when watching it then that is all that matters. Actually AOTC will have to be excellent to be my favorite movie this summer. Spiderman had everything: Good acting, good story, well written dialouge, good special effects, great action scenes. It completely sucked me in. I am a big Star Wars fan but, in my eyes, AOTC has alot to live up to.
  11. DarthSapient Jedi Youngling

    Member Since:
    Jun 26, 2001
    star 10
    As far as box office gross, I could care less if my ticket was the only one sold. I just want to see it many times and enjoy it. What it earns has no bearing or influence on me.
  12. Riley Man Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Dec 19, 1999
    star 5
    There was a recent TF.N report in which a Fox exec said Ep.2 would be on about 5000 screens -- that's 3000 fewer than Spider-Man. That makes it virtually impossible to match the numbers Spider-Man got, unless by some miracle every ticket for every showing 24 hours a day is sold. And that's even just a maybe -- it may not even be mathematically possible.

    However, one thing Clones doesn't have that Phantom did is the apprehension to go see it opening weekend for casual or first-time fans. Alot of people I knew refused to see Phantom on opening weekend because of lineups, crowds, and potentially noisy theatres.

    Couple that with increased ticket prices, and probably a wider casual audience (hey, Padme and Anakin are late teens / early twenties -- the teenage demographic is going to go see this movie for sure), and I think Ep.2 will get somewhere between Harry Potter and Spider-Man. The four-day total will be higher than Spider-Man, and the three-day Friday to Sunday will be higher than Harry.


    Edit: And just for the record, it's a little tiring when people post the proverbial "who cares" every five posts. It's just box office speculation. :p Have fun and join in!
  13. jedibri Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jul 19, 2000
    star 4
    $120.00 million. Let's remember SW has a 4 day opening. I know I will be there at least 3 outa the 4. If not all 4 :D .
  14. MINI_YODA Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Apr 25, 2002
    star 2
    jabadabado

    No offence but there is no way that Spiderman will make 30-40 million in its 3rd week. Even Harry Potter and LOTR, did only 20-25 million in its 3rd week and they had better reviews than SM.

    More than likely you'll see around the same for SM.
    Yes TPM did over $31 million in its 3rd week but that's because there was no competition during that period.

    My guess would be that it'll see a drop of 45% the 2nd week to around $60M. Than see a substantial drop to $25M the 3rd weekend. This is because right now it monopolizes complexes to the tune of 7600 screens, that'll be moved in favour of SW, probably dropping the total to 4000 or so. That alone will percipitate a drop of 50%.
    It'll level off the 4th because of the Memorial long weekend. After that as more and more movies hit it'll disappear all together, ending up with a tally of $325 million. Most movies end up doing between 25-40% of their gross in the first weekend.

    Now with SW, if it follows a similar path with TPM or Shrek, it'll do only 15-20% or so of its gross in the first weekend. With say a $70 mill opening weekend, we could be looking at $400+.

  15. NeoJobe Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Apr 8, 2002
    star 1
    Opening day 35 million.
    Opening weekend 90 million
  16. Sense-My-Presense Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Jul 18, 2000
    star 3
    Spidey will fade out. I'm not competitive with Star Wars and Spidey. I went and saw Spidey on opening day and was excited about it.

    But Spidey was just plain silly!! I hate the Japanese style of fighting and the matrix style slow motion junk! Goblin looked like a Power Ranger and was silly too! Adapting a movie from a comic book isn't easy. But a comic book can get away with some cheesy stuff that movies can't!!

    Spiderman was boring, uninspired and terrible!!

    Thank God we still have AOTC and Minority Report this summer!

    Spidey stinks!

    AOTC Opening weekend: $91 Million

    AOTC End of Summer: $450 Million

    Spidey End of Summer: $340 Million

    I won't even rent Spidey to see again!
  17. Chang Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    May 6, 2002
    star 1
    For those that are interested The Phantom Menace did the following in 1999:

    Wednesday May 19 = $28,542,349
    Thursday May 20 = $12,307,918
    Friday May 20 = $18,467,513
    Saturday May 21 = $24,414,123
    Sunday May 22 = $21,929,334
    Total = $105,661,237

    Click on this link for more information
    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/phantommay.html
  18. Darth_Racer Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 9, 2002
    star 2
    Congrats to Spidey...I admit....I thought it would "only" make around $70 million opening weekend. I wouldn't be concerned with what AOTC makes it's opening weekend.....for those who get into "competition" between films, all that really matters is what a film makes it's entire run. IMHO, AOTC will have "longer legs" than SM. At the end of the day, so to speak, AOTC will rake in $75-100 million more at the box office. There has yet to be a SW movie that hasn't broken the $400 million mark (adjusted for inflation), and I don't see AOTC breaking that tradition. I really don't see SM coming close to that figure.
    Anyway, it looks like a great summer for movies....with the greatest movie opening on May 16th.
  19. slackerj Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Apr 25, 2002
    star 1
    Well for those of you saying its impossible for AOTC to out due SM opening weekend, well, I could've said the same thing about SM grossing over a $100 mill in its first three days.

    Even though I don't think AOTC can compete with SM it's first three days, I DO think that AOTC first four days will be better than SM first four days.
  20. smauldookie Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Mar 5, 2002
    star 5
    AOTC will open in about 3300 theaters and about 5500 screens. spidey opened in 3615 theaters and 7500 screens.

    i don't think aotc will break any single day or 3 day records that spidey has set.

    but i do think that aotc will make a lot of $.

    first 4 days i think it will make about $110-120 million. and iam hoping that good word o f mouth will spread like wildfire. and get lots of people to see it during midweeks.

    weekend 1 $110-120
    weekend 2 $75-90
  21. admiral jimmy Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Nov 14, 1999
    star 4
    But how could every BO expert be wrong about Spiderman everyone said it would make 70 million $...
    ...so they could be wrong about SW too :D

    On the other hand a movie´s gross is not determined by it´s starting weekend.

    EDIT: And IMHO AOTC will gross at least 130 million $ on it´s first weekend ... worldwide :D
  22. Eeth-my-Koth Chosen One

    Member Since:
    May 25, 2001
    star 9
    4 Day weekend = 118.6 million
  23. ShiftyJedi Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Nov 9, 2001
    star 1
    I think Spidy had a definate advantage, but I think it will lose most of it's fizzle. On the Otherhand don't count out Attack of the Clones, the theatre I saw Spidy in pretty much sold out the entire first day. I went on saturday at 12:30 and the showing I went to wasn't even sold out. How did this thing make 45 Million. Oh Yeah a billion screenings. As for time, it's not like were talking Fellowship of the Ring here ten minutes between films don't usually matter because theaters have a tendancy to show films at half hour intervals. Like 10:00, 2:30, 5:00 and so on. The fact that George limits the number of screenings will probably kill it's chances though. But if Spidy beats AotC based on screens alone it's not really a big deal. It's the diffrence between Lucas and Sony, Sony doesn't care about the movie industry they are will to supply films wherever a theater is willing to play them. George on the otherhand says I don't want people listening to this film with crappy seventies sound. Lucas wants to shake up the way films are projected and shot and he can do it because he is George Lucas. And for all the people that bad mouth GL need to ask themselves what have you done lately. The guy is fighting for the future and sony only wants to take your money, spiderman is hollywood and AOTC is hollywood in ten years. Don't understand Hollywood follows the trend, that Lucas has set.


    Careful
  24. Padawan_Emperor Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    May 2, 2002
    Opening day about 30 million
    Fri- 30 million
    Sat- 40+ million
    Sun- 40+ million

    Total Th-Su about 140 million

    Total overall about 425 million domestic.
    1.2 billion total worldwide.
  25. Covenant Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Apr 21, 2002
    star 1
    For us stat junkies the interesting thing will be can AOTC beat Spideys two week gross. Spidey is going to drop by about 60% this weekend, not cause it is bad, but because it openend so big (IMO it was very good, yes the action was a bit flat but this movie had such a great story, and it is well set up for a second that has more action with the origin story out of the way.)

    Can Spidey hit 200 mil by next weekend, I think that is about 40/60 against. Even with a 50% and 25mil during the week, it only hits 201 mil, and that is if the 114 holds up which I expect it to fall to about 110. More realistically it falls about 55-60% to about 45-50 mil and 25 during the week to about 185 mil. Ending at about 300 mil

    AOTC will hit 100-110 mil on sunday and 200 mil by the following monday, overtaking Spidey on day 12. And if it is as good as early indications say, word of mouth will push it to 400 mil total.

    People keep saying that sequels dont make as much as the original, but that is just not holding up anymore, Mummy Returns, Rush Hour 2, American Pie 2, Austin Powers 2, to name just a few, all out grossed there predecesor. Of course 431 mil is a lot but remember, TPM was not well recieved, and still did 431, if this one is, as all early reviews say, well then, it has a chance.... I give it 50/50 to hit 400 mil
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