Episode 2 Opening Gross Predictions

Discussion in 'Attack of the Clones' started by CarbonKnight, May 1, 2002.

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  1. Yoda_For_President Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Apr 19, 2002
    AOTC will not beat Spider-Man's opening weekend due to the fact that it will be playing in less theaters and on less screens. I don't think Lucas cares about opening weekend numbers because this is the second time he has done this.

    That said, I expect AOTC to have a bigger PER SCREEN AVERAGE than Spider-Man had and to have the biggest box-office possible for that amount of showings it will have.

    Opening Day: 30+ Million
    3-Day Weekend: 80+ Million

    Then you must remember that AOTC second weekend is Memorial Day Weekend. By then, Spider-Man will be on even less theaters and AOTC will now be profiting from the strong word of mouth, positive reviews and us seeing it again. It is also a Holiday weekend that always equals big bucks. I doubt that AOTC second weekend will have much of a drop, if any at all...at most - around 10% and it will still be ruling the box-office.

    Spiderman will make 300-350 million domestically
    AOTC will make 400-450 million domestically
  2. Padawan_Emperor Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    May 2, 2002
    The big test will be staying power. The best of the OT, ESB, did the worst at the box office. A lot of TPM's staying power was from families with little kids. AOTC, like ESB, will not have that same appeal to the familes with lttle ones.

    It will be interesting to see if the story line is good enough to keep drawing an older crowd for repeat viewings (teens - 30 & 40 somethings). Unless it pulls a surprise like Titanic, I'm guessing it will gross a little less than TPM domestically, but easily break 400 million.
  3. smauldookie Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Mar 5, 2002
    star 5
    AOTC will have the best staying power of any movie this summer(including spiderman).

    it has things for little kids,teenagers(boys&girls),adults,and die hard fans.

    it will open big(not as big as spidey).and will have great staying power during midweeks and weekends. it will top bo in its first 3 weekends(just like TPM). and will not have more then 35% dropoff during the summer. i belive it will top $400 and will beat or come close to beating TPM.


    YODA IN ACTION ALONE WILL BRING IN THE CROWDS!!
  4. SWfan2002 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 28, 2002
    star 4
    True, but I also think that AOTC will appeal much more the the teenage audiences than TPM did. There's a lot of money to be made from teens. And they usually pay full price too.
  5. Darth_Rediculous Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Dec 13, 2001
    First off, I'm a huge Star Wars fan and have been keeping up with all the spoilers. But...I don't want to rain on everyone's parade, but how can most everyone on this board believe that there are more Star Wars fans out there than Spider-man fans? Maybe more diehard (wait in line 6 months before it opens) fans, but I've been a Spider-man fan way before I was a Star Wars fan and have been waiting for a "good" live action movie my whole life...After waiting all those years for the TPM "my letdown of the century" I kinda think the Star Wars draw has been hurt a little in the eyes of many people...(maybe not most people on this board - but maybe some...)

    Let's face it...Kids today have to be more into Spider-man than Star Wars if you base their first Star Wars experience on TPM...not to mention all the other Sci-Fi TV shows and movies today to dilute everything...My nephews who are in grade school and Junior High could give a flip about Star Wars. I even made them watch the original trilogy - and they still don't like it...They watch X-men and Spider-man cartoons though and love it...

    I'm really looking forward to AOTC, and I'm a huge fan of the franchise, but little kids who watch Saturday morning cartoons are gonna want to see Spider-man again and again...and the parents will most likely take them...plus you have the guys like me who are 30+ who have been waiting forever...I'm gonna see it a few more times myself...I saw it and it was a good movie... and a great start to a new superhero franchise...I can't wait for the sequel to see a live action Lizard man and Doc Octopus...

    I don't think there are enough die hard Star Wars fans out there to make up the difference. And to go see it over and over just to break Spider-man's record it just lame...go see it because it's a good movie...How does it benefit us anyway? Are we walking home with any of that box office money? You will just making some studio execs very rich that's all...

    I hope Star Wars does well, but I'd rather the movie be awesome and make no money than for it to be sucky like TPM and break a record or two...just out of spite...

    Personally, I think it will probably do less than Harry Potter did opening weekend...and I bet Spider-man worldwide over the summer makes more money total...Get over it...Star Wars will still be there for us and we'll still have another movie to look forward to...
  6. Yoda_For_President Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Apr 19, 2002
    Episode II, like Episode One, will have the best staying power of all the summer films. Why? Everybody eventually will see it because it is a Star Wars movie. Star Wars is apart of our culture and that will eventually draw everyone in.

    What will make Episode II the biggest film of the year is that its second weekend is Memorial Day weekend. Therefore, unlike Spider-Man, The Mummy Returns and other box-office giants, it won't have much of a second weekend drop. By the end of Memorial Day weekend, I would not be surprised if Episode II is at 225-250 million.
  7. Yoda_For_President Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Apr 19, 2002
    Here are some numbers I have figured out to compare Spider-Man and AOTC first two weeks:

    Spider-Man

    Opening Weekend: 114 million
    During This Week: 15 million (school/work keeps it low - happened with Harry Potter etc)
    2nd Weekend: 57 million (50% drop)

    Two week total: Around 186 Million


    AOTC

    Opening Weekend + Thursday: 110 million
    During Week: 15 million
    2nd Weekend (Memorial Day Weekend): 85 Million

    Two week total: Around 210 Million
  8. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    I agree with Yoda_for_President about everything except the $85 million on AOTC's second weekend. $65 million tops.

    Also, Spider-Man may hold up better than many of you think in its second weekend. There is no serious competition for Spider-Man's audience. Given the gushing reviews across the board, I bet it will not drop more than 40% its second frame. You'll see a $68-$70 million weekend coming up for Spider-Man. Then a minimum of $30-$35 million in week three. AOTC isn't going to be able to crowd it out of the market.

    But a lot of you seem to agree that AOTC will make in the Thursday-Sunday period about what Spider-Man made Friday-Sunday... somewhere between $110 and $120 million.
  9. Darth-KrayzieBone Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Nov 19, 2001
    star 3
    Dont forget that AOTC second weekend is Memorial Day weekend. $85 mil or close to that is possible over those days...
  10. Rupert_Pupkin Jedi Youngling

    Member Since:
    Mar 10, 2002
    star 3
    Whoever thinks Spider-Man will drop 50% in its second weekend is an idiot. Spider-Man was an excellent movie that had everything. Great acting, story, action, and romance. The 2nd weekend will be almost as big!
  11. neimoidian_85 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Dec 30, 1999
    star 4
    Spider-Man is retarded. Superman is retarded. Batman is retarded. Super heroes are retarded.
  12. AL Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 22, 1998
    star 5

    Pupkin:

    [image=http://www.orakul.ru/sonnik/image/troll.gif]
  13. JBFett Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Feb 15, 2002
    star 4
    Rupert,

    I am sorry but I dont agree with you at all...Many people did not like spiderman or were disappointed and left empty by it. The action scenes were nothing great lasting no more than 4 mins and were few and far between...not done well at all...Tobey was a good Parker, but not a believeable spiderman. Dafoe was good but overacted..Dunst..well...I wont get into that. The effects were subpar and overall it was pretty empty and leaves you wanting much more. It was not epic as it was advertised and therefore will lack replay value from the average moviegoer. I am a fan and i can say I wont see it again in theatres so what does that say about the other people?

    It will do well next week, dont get me wrong...but it is not unlikely for it to make 60 million at all.
  14. REBEL_SKUM Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Sep 20, 2000
    star 2
    I think opening weekend grosses mearly represent the amount of hype surrounding a movie. Spider man obviously had a lot of hype and by the looks of things everyone wanted to see it. however the true test of a movie is how it will hold out. Star wars will have a large opening weekend, but I think star wars has more likely hood of holding it's numbers, mainly becuase like spider man it has a following, and as we all know it's getting great reviews. Right now with spider man I've heard mixed reviews at best,and I there is no way that it can hold it's numbers so I expect that after AOTC comes out everyone will be forgetting about spiderman (figuratively)
  15. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    Harry Potter was mildly disappointing, and yet it went on to make more money worldwide than any movie since Titanic. Your personal disappointment in Spider-Man is not going to serve as a barometer for the movie's success anymore than my disappointment in TPM affected the box office.

    Spider-Man has 13 free days without any serious competition. I admit no one knows how steep the dropoff will be this coming weekend, but absent anything else in the theaters, my feeling is that many people will come back to see Spider-Man again, and that many people who were scared off by opening weekend crowds will want to go see the movie that smashed the opening weekend records.

    But no matter how well Spider-Man does in its third weekend, nothing will keep AOTC from being a huge hit over the long run. I would rather see a $70 million opening weekend followed by a 15% week-to-week decline at the box office, than a $130 million Thursday-Sunday run followed by a 55% decline.

  16. Rupert_Pupkin Jedi Youngling

    Member Since:
    Mar 10, 2002
    star 3
    I think its funny a lot of you call us Spider-Man and Lord of the Rings fans... trolls. Have you even read the majority of the posts here by your fellow Star Wars fans? You take trolling to a whole new level! Listen to yourselfs bash Spider-Man. Youre acting like a bunch of close-minded morons. Thats what pisses me off the most! You completely rip Spider-Man to shreads just because its seriously stealing the Episode 2 spotlight. I hate to break this to ya... George Lucas is to blame with his lackluster Episode 1. You guys actually feel threatened. So much so that many of you are asking fans to see Episode 2 more than twice opening weekend to break Spider-Man's new records.

    That my friends... is pathetic. How can you think about Spider-Man and not get a smile on your face? It was an excellent movie with great acting and heart and soul. Peter Parker is the everyday kid. Not many friends, picked on, never got the girl. Certainly the majority of you should relate. Thats what makes Peter Parker a wonderful character. You CAN relate to him. You see the tough life he has and you want to root and cheer for him. Thats what Spider-man is about. NOT the action scenes. NOT the special effects.

    You know what else? That is what the original Star Wars trilogy was all about too. There's the major flaw of this prequel trilogy of a too proud and ridiculously overindulgent display of special-effects and computer imaging. Watching these scenes of the clone attack on Geonosis, it's now more clear than ever that all the battles and fight scenes in Star Wars and The Empire Strikes Back now look like cinematic examples of classic restraint. Someone needs to smack Lucas upside the head and remind him once again that LESS IS MORE.

    We don't need to be assaulted by neverending CGI to be entertained. One gets the feeling that if Lucas were to do the battle of Hoth in Empire today, there would be not five AT-AT Walkers but twenty of them, about 2,000 more snowtroopers that land on the planet and he would increase the number of rebels to about 1,500 with a multitude of about 10 different types of spacecraft, etc.

    Regardless of what some may say, Star Wars has never been about special-effects. It wasn't an endless bombardment of visuals and noise that captured the minds of so many fans....it was always the innocent exuberance of the whole package, and more importantly, the heart and
    soul that was there. I'm talking about in the little moments, with characters you cared about : Han being pulled from Leia and lowered into the carbonite, Luke's final words with Anakin, or even the sigh of relief let by Admiral Ackbar when he watches Vader's Super-destroyer blow up, realizing that the Alliance could very well be on the cusp of victory. Unfortunately, it's hard to find that kind of heart and soul in a film when it's buried underneath layers and layers of effects and CGI nausea. The Phantom Menace clearly lacked it. How many here truly cared when Qui-Gonn bit it? You're lying.

    None of this would be so bad if these prequels didn't in any way affect the classic trilogy we all know and love....but they do. Take Boba Fett. Fett, arguably, has always been one of the most popular characters in the entire series, and that has always had a lot to due with the mystery surrounding him. No one ever knew what this guy's story was, or if he was even a guy, or human! But now, with AOTC, that mystery is all but vanquished for good. We find out who he is, how he came to be, who his daddy is, why he was made, how he got that cool ship, and everything else that eventually turned him into the battle-weary enigma that first showed up on that Star Destroyer in Empire. Way to go, George. I can forgive a failed attempt at trying to rekindle past glories with these prequels, but don't tarnish the original trilogy along with them.
  17. vansmak Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Mar 18, 1999
    star 1
    All you need to know about how important opening weekends are is the following

    The Mummy Returns:

    Opening Weekend - 68 million
    Total Gross - 202 million

    Planet Of The Apes

    Opening Weekend - 68.5 million
    Total Gross - 180 million

    The Phantom Menace

    Opening Weekend - 64.8 million
    Total Gross - 431 million

    Titanic

    Opening Weekend - 28.6 million
    Total Gross - 601 million

    Which would you rather be, the first 2, or the 2nd two?

    -smak-
  18. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    Another thing Spider-Man has going for it is this (from Box Office Guru):

    "Demographic data showed that the turnout was equally split between males and females and those under and over age 25. The broad appeal of Spider-Man was crucial in reaching such a large audience."

    No matter what, AOTC is not going to be able to equal that kind of diversity in its audience composition. With the PG rating, its audience will skew much younger, and as with all Star Wars movies, it will skew heavily male.

  19. SLAVE2 Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Apr 6, 2000
    star 5
    Why does anyone care what the film makes, really. Its not important at all, as long as you enjoy the film that should be all that matters.
  20. foxbatkllr Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Jul 27, 2001
    star 6
    Rupert's right. I mean, our opinions don't matter, only his does. Heck if he says Spider-man was the best movie ever and TPM was the worst movie ever, we should all believe him, right? I mean, how dare we back Episode 2 over Spider-Man? What gives us the nerve to be SW fanboys and hype up SW on this forum? Geez, I mean if you're gonna just post stuff about SW and bash SM you should go to a Star Wars forum...come on guys get it together!
  21. DarthHutt Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 2, 2000
    star 5
  22. Sonic_Pumpkins Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Aug 17, 2001
    star 2
    Some of you guys have been saying that Spider-man has been receiving gushing reviews and a great response from the audience. Actually, I haven't heard one single gushing review worth a damn since the movie came out. Chicago Tribune gave it ***, Ebert gave it **1/2, the reviewer at 'counting down' stated that he felt the same emptiness after Spider-man that he felt after TPM, TIME magazine gave it marginal thumbs up, I think Roeper did also (if I'm not mistaken), only two people at my school out of about 10 that I asked thought it was more than okay (one in particular could not believe I sat through the movie twice), and Entertainment Weekly gave it a B. I'd say that's not exactly gushing. I didn't think the reviews before the movie, that were anywhere near legitimate reviews, were all that great either. I liked the movie, but that wont stop the mammoth drop next week. Oh, and I called that huge opening weekend back in March. I said it would be even bigger than SW opening...but AOTC would win in the long run. I still believe that, no doubt.

    Opening day: $32 million
    First Four Days: $112 million
    Summer Total: God only knows...
  23. Attacking-Newbie Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Mar 6, 2002
    star 1
    Rupert, you may be right, Spidey had heart, but it didn't have a single action sequence that thrilled/amazed me. It would have been a classic if it had better action. In my dreams last night I had no vision of the final box-office gross for AotC but I did watch the Yoda trailer and am sticking with my prediction of 650 domestic total.
  24. foxbatkllr Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Jul 27, 2001
    star 6
    Come on guys, heart is all that matters. As long as you try your best and give it your all, it doesn't matter if you win or lose. As long as you study real hard and want to get an "A" it doesn't matter if you get an "F"...As long as you swing at the baseball really hard it doesn't matter if you hit or miss it. Come on guys now, just give it your all and everyone will be happy.

    -Mike Riley (p.s. only a few select sports fans know who that is so if you don't, ignore it).
  25. cc2318 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Apr 21, 2002
    star 4
    speaking of heart-- are there any ebert or other ratings for SW out yet?

    oh yeah, um, money... i agree w/ vanman.
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