Episode 2 Opening Gross Predictions

Discussion in 'Attack of the Clones' started by CarbonKnight, May 1, 2002.

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  1. XV426 Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Jan 24, 2001
    star 2
    As much as I enjoyed Spiderman, it's gonna get its butt kicked at the Box Office. AOTC will blow Spidey away.
  2. Verry Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Feb 27, 2002
    star 3
    I got the "phantom menace" feel with Spider-man, i wanted something more. I expected something more. Somewhere along the lines it just didn't deliver.
  3. Yoda_For_President Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Apr 19, 2002
    First, let me state that I really liked Spider-Man. I would give it a "B+".

    Second, you must remember that AOTC second weekend is Memorial Day weekend. This is the biggest weekend of the year. It is a 4-day weekend. Episode II will probably drop 10% for the 3-day weekend and then it will make around 15-million on that Monday. That is why I am saying 85 million total for that 4-day weekend. Believe me, it will happen.

    Finally, Spider-Man WILL drop 50%. This is even though it is getting positive reviews. Remember that a 50% drop is still 57 MILLION for the weekend. That is still a HUGE number. Very few blockbuster debut that high.

    Trust my numbers, I will be proven right.
  4. CarbonKnight Jedi Youngling

    Member Since:
    Apr 19, 2002
    star 4
    No I bet Spider-man will drop 65%

    Also note that Spiderman had good advertising which prominently featured May 3rd as the release date. Ask anyone what day it came out and they would have known. Ask the average person when AOTC comes out, and they wouldnt know the exact date. Even I didnt know!
  5. Yoda_For_President Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Apr 19, 2002
    No I bet Spider-man will drop 65%
    =============================================

    I think that is a little steep. I am predicting a 50% drop but the biggest drop I would bet on is 55%.

    It will be interesting to see what happens.
  6. JBFett Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Feb 15, 2002
    star 4
    I predict a 99.999 % drop, thinking it will bring in 4 dollars or so nationwide.

    :)
  7. Master_of_Darkness Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Feb 15, 2002
    star 4
    Thursday: It's a thursday. A more lukewarm day, yet, it is the opening day. Thirty/forty million

    Friday: End of the week, might wanna see afternoon flick, at night go and see the movie possibly. Thirty-five/Forty-five million range

    Weekend: The biggest seller. It's the weekend, AOTC is full of action, and so will the gross in the end of the weekend. Fifty/Sixty million range.
    In the end of those beginning four days, I'm guessing it'll make around the same as Spidey.
  8. Dagobah_Dude Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Nov 9, 2001
    star 3
    Here's a transcript from CNN. CNN anchor Anderson Cooper saw AOTC on saturday night. It addresses nearly every issue being talked about in this thread.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    CAFFERTY: George Lucas [is] about to unleash his eagerly anticipated next installment of the "Star Wars" saga, "Episode II -- Attack of the Kleins, Clones."

    CNN's Jedi warrior Anderson Cooper ... joins us now from a galaxy not all that far away after all. Is this thing any good?

    COOPER: It is. The buzz on this movie, I've got to tell you, is just extraordinary. "Attack of the Kleins" is actually a whole different film involving ...

    CAFFERTY: Oh, I was confused. Yes.

    COOPER: ... Calvin Klein, but ...

    CAFFERTY: They have all of these sequels and stuff, you know, those series of movies, I got them mixed up -- sorry about that.

    COOPER: That's right.

    CAFFERTY: You were at George Lucas' ranch?

    COOPER: Yes, well you know, I like to hobnob with the in crowd.

    CAFFERTY: Man!

    COOPER: I don't know what I was doing there. I was invited on this press junket. I got to see the movie Saturday night. I was at the "Star Wars" convention on Friday. And I've got to tell you, this movie is going to be huge. The buzz on this thing is just great, both from the TV industry people who were there, which was a pretty jaded crowd, if I might say.

    And die-hard fans are really buzzed about this. They are really excited. You know, they have been following the story on the Internet. They know everything that's in this move, and they really are excited that it sort of recaptures the magic of the "Star Wars" trilogy.

    CAFFERTY: You know, Anderson, there is a piece on the front page of The Wall Street Journal [on Monday] morning talking about "Spider-Man," for example, grossing $114 million. But what they don't tell you upfront is the studio [Sony Corp.'s Columbia Pictures] also spent some $50 million to market this thing. So the investment in marketing and selling the thing ahead of release is almost as big as the budget for the movie itself.

    COOPER: Yes. And I've got to tell you, in two weeks when "Star Wars: Episode II" opens up, it's going to be "Spider-Man," schmider-man.

    CAFFERTY: Really?

    COOPER: The money they are pouring into marketing "Star Wars" is just going to be huge. It's opening worldwide. And I think it's going to blow "Spider-Man" out of the galaxy, if you will.

    CAFFERTY: Is anybody talking about what the ceiling on a three-day weekend gross might be? How high is up?

    COOPER: I don't think anyone knows. I mean, at this point, you know, the sky is the limit, and no one could have predicted, you know, a "Spider-Man" opening so big. And "Star Wars," you know, it's a franchise which is beloved by millions of people around the world, and I think the sky is the limit.

    CAFFERTY: Now, what have they done with Yoda? I read where he is fully computer animated for the first time.

    COOPER: Yes. It's pretty remarkable. I was actually kind of wary about this. Yoda before was a puppet operated by a man by the name of Frank Oz. It still [is] using Frank Oz's voice, so you still get the same, you know, Yoda voice.

    But Yoda is fully digitally animated. So you actually see a whole new kind of Yoda. It's a little younger Yoda, and it's a Yoda that is quite a sword fighter. I don't know if we actually have video of that. I don't think they are releasing that stuff yet because that is definitely the highlight of the film. Seeing Yoda without the little mini light saver he has ... is without a doubt the highlight of the film. People are laughing, cheering in the crowd I saw.

    CAFFERTY: And Yoda is definitely cool. One of the possible reasons, I suppose, for the success of these "Star Wars" movies, is they have resisted until now that ever-present Hollywood temptation to go for the love story. I understand they have one in this one, right?

    COOPER: There is a love story on this, and I think it will be a huge part of the appeal. You know, it's kind of
  9. BrAd-Is-BaD Jedi Youngling

    Member Since:
    Mar 15, 2002
    star 3
    I think AOTC weekend gross will blow people away.

    It will reach $150 million for the weekend. Spider Man will be left in the dust.
  10. DARTHPIGFEET Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 24, 2001
    star 4
    Well there you have it. It's sealed. It' a mathmatical imposibility for AOTC to do the business that Spider-man did when you have that many less screens playing. It's simple math.

    Longer movie, less shows, less screens equal less money.

    Now the only way AOTC can make it's money is by sustaining it power for 4 weeks in a row and doing an average of 50 million a week.

    So do not be surprised when we all see AOTC and love it, yet it does not make 114 million or more at the box office. I predict 109 million.
  11. DarthWiggum Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Jan 30, 2001
    star 1
    I hate to break the news, but Spiderman now holds the record for fastest to $100 million - three days. And I don't think that can really be beaten.

    I think AOTC will push $100 million the first weekend, with $25-30 million opening day (Hell, I've already got my tickets for opening day!)

    Total - I think it can hit $400 million with the higher ticket prices. And if the reviews are good (and so far ALL of the pre-release reviews have been stunning) I think it can push even higher - perhaps $500 million. The bad reviews put a damper on repeat viewings for TPM. I doubt that will happen with AOTC.
  12. DarthHutt Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 2, 2000
    star 5
    If AOTC opened on a Friday, it would make $100 in three days.
    If AOTC opened on a Friday on as many screens as Spider-Man, it would probably do it two.
  13. Admiral Hackbar Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Dec 14, 1999
    star 2
    Box Office Mojo says it is opening in 3300 theatres, about 300 less than Spider-man. Still unknown how many prints there will be.
  14. DarthHutt Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 2, 2000
    star 5
    From what I understand:

    SM had about 7600 prints.
    AOTC will have about 5000 prints.

    A local theater has SM on 4 screens.
    At that same theater, AOTC will only be on 1 screen.
    Therein lies the problem.
  15. Admiral Hackbar Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Dec 14, 1999
    star 2
    A local theater has SM on 4 screens.
    At that same theater, AOTC will only be on 1 screen.
    Therein lies the problem.

    Are you basing this on pre-order times? Because most theatres will add more screens before the movie opens, and only sell tickets ahead of time for one screen.
  16. yoda900 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Apr 28, 2002
    star 3
    just to address a few issues here. number one, it is mathematically possible for Episode 2 to beat Spiderman each day.
    assuming there are 5100 screens and there is an average of 400 seats per screen (it is probably higher given the fact that most of the biggest theaters are usualy 500 + seats) but I will use 400, and say an average ticket price between adult and kid through out the day of $5.50 which could be low these days, but just a realistic number, and say there is an average of 5.3 showings per day per screen (I am sure it will start showing at 10am like Spiderman and keep palying til 1230 am like spiderman) and say an average of only 80% full theaters.
    This would give you a total opening day of $47.57 million if it is 99% full than it could do just shy of $60 million in a single day. but I think it will do $43 million opneing day, and do about the same Fri and Sat, giving it about $120 million in its first 3 days, also getting to the 100 mark in 3 days, but as you can see it is mathematically possible to do it in 2, but very doubtful.

    Ok, now for the rest of the stuff.

    TPM was way way overhpyed, keeping people from seeing it the frist weekend sometimes, AOTC is being hpyed properly.
    I have heard nothing but positive things about it, the sfx are the most amazing in histrotry easily, plus the love story (ala Titanic type audience),
    TPM is said to have little competition, false, Austin powers upened up on the 4th weeekend , plus we had 13 100 million dollar movies that year, many which were in the summer, it had compeition after competition after competition.
    As for AOTC, spiderman will have already done its damage, so will have Scropion king, the first real threat supposedly is Scooby doo which is in the 5th weekend and quite frankly, I can not see scooby doo being that serious a threat. The next big thing is not til July 4th when MIB 2 opens up, this is now the 8th weekend AOTC will be around and AUstin powers 3 not til August 2nd I think. so it will have many weeks as number one, thus getting a lot of buzz, keeping it afload , plus great word of mouth, and on and on.

    For the guy who said Star Wars does not have as manyfans as Spiderman, well, I like spiderman too, I loved the movie, but it is not going to beat AOTC. Star WArs has something like 4-7 million fans in the star wars fan club , perhpas more, all these people will see it probalby 10-20 times + each. Ther eis no other fan club in the world as big as SW for any popculture thing.

    I think Ep 2 will make over $500 million domestic, I would not be overly surprised if it did over $600 million to beat titanic.
    also, TPM opend up on only like 4400 screens adn did 28.5 million opening day. Plus take into account 3 years inflation it would certainly be over a $35 million day easily today with 5100 screens, which this one should be able to do. so still easily 100 million in its first 3 dyas. btw, my predictions did not include the possiblility of midnight screenings.

    One other thing, if you go to Themovietimes.com which I went to yesterday they have a poll listing 20 of the biggest moives of the entire year and AOTC outdid spiderman 2:1 as to what people want ot see the most with over 1500 respondents.

    Take this all what you will, but it is just a simple analysis with no bashing of any other movie(s) as to why It hink this movie will do what I say it will.

    But the only true thing is, Wait and see, we will find out in 10 days what opening day is, in 14 days we will find out opening weekend totals, and in 10 -12 months we will find out the domestic, international and ww grand totals.

    Have a nice day everyone
  17. MINI_YODA Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Apr 25, 2002
    star 2
    Since the exhibitors seem to be so excited about the film I wonder if they will be going for more prints, bringing the total over 5000.
  18. jacensky315 Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Apr 29, 2002
    star 5
    I thimk that Lucas made a mistake putting it out on a Thursday. If it were released on a Friday it would ahve beaten spiderman. I think that AOTC will reach around the 105 mill. mark in the first three days.
  19. neoxeon2 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Oct 3, 2000
    star 4
    i just saw in the paper that spiderman did 114 million, wow. im surprised it broke all records. i never expected that. oh well over all we will still triumph.
    the force is with us.
  20. AL Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 22, 1998
    star 5

    We don't need to be assaulted by neverending CGI to be entertained. One gets the feeling that if Lucas were to do the battle of Hoth in Empire today, there would be not five AT-AT Walkers but twenty of them, about 2,000 more snowtroopers that land on the planet and he would increase the number of rebels to about 1,500 with a multitude of about 10 different types of spacecraft, etc.

    Yes. And it would look infinitely cooler and more true to the story.

    The cgi in Spider-Man is not even in the same league as the latest clips from AOTC that are being aired. Granted I have not seen AOTC. I have, however, seen Spider-Man and I could not find any of the charisma and/or sense of love, longing or empathy you defend. I was impressed by Maguire and Maguire only. Everything else lacked any kind of depth and subtlety that makes a great comic book movie as in the first two Superman films, Unbreakable and Rocketeer.

    If people are defending Star Wars in a very unreasonable way, then it is fair enough. This is a Star Wars fan site. People gush. If you want to talk about how rubbish Star Wars is without adding anything to the debate (that last post of yours, Pupkin, is the only one that I know where you actually explained yourself. You did not do a very good job, by the way.), then go to Corona, AICN, DH or Chud message boards. Although I could not give a flying toss about how much AOTC makes in its opening weekend (and trust me on this fellow fanboys, there is a big chance AOTC might lose the overall summer box office "battle" to Spider-Man), I understand why people are defensive about it. Pupkin, you are saying that they are blinded by their love for Star Wars.

    You, Pupkin, are blinded by your love to piss people off and to create a disturbance and insult them. You demand attention: you seek it more than anything for reasons I don't know or care to speculate. Well, my friend, if you carry on like this, people will just start ignoring you. And for someone who craves attention as much as you obviously do, is the biggest insult of all.
  21. JediKnight3 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 2, 2002
    star 1
    I don't think AOTC will blow Spider-Man away. It'll beat the record, or finish just a few million behind. I'm guessing somewhere between $110 and $120 million for the first weekend of AOTC.
  22. ShiftyJedi Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Nov 9, 2001
    star 1
    pupkin, your not a star wars fan. You continuely back a B rated movie that only a few people really fell in love with. Yeah Spiderman has no competition but as a parent you would be afraid to take a youngin back to the violence of that movie. As for the women demograph, remember when it comes to movies women are les s likely to see a movie twice at the theater which hurts Spiderman considering they need repeat viewership to maintain it's level. You also got to factor in the Star Wars Fandom Factor since AOTC comes out next week Star Wars fans will hold back on there cash so they can see AOTC a kazillion times. Star Wars fan base is much bigger then Spiderman; especially worldwide. Ask anyone in film or television what's your influence's; you'll get Star Wars, The Godfather, Kubrick, Speilberg, but I almost guarentee that no one says Batman. Spiderman has never been as big as Superman or Batman so likely it will fizzle. Rupert isn't there a spiderman board you should be hang out now!

    P.S. The whole Bobba Fett thing, these are prequels they are suppose to tell the story of the characters of the OT.
  23. neoxeon2 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Oct 3, 2000
    star 4
    shifty thats a good point, spidey doesn't have the audience that will go a kazillion times like SW does. and i saw spidey, i will now go see AOTC 1 more time then i originally planed, i think i have seen others say the same.
  24. --SithLord-- Jedi Padawan

    Member Since:
    Apr 8, 2002
    The general audience had mixed opinions of TPM. A lot of those people had never seen a Star wars film until then.

    85 mill opening weekend.

    Then people will catch on and realize this is one of the best movies made, and AOTC will singlehandedly put Star Wars back on the throne.

    It will gross 450 million.
  25. icqfreak Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Mar 7, 1999
    star 4
    Does anyone know when the other kid oriented films are coming out this summer? because aotc will do even better if it has several weeks without any other kid movies out, because it will benefit from any kids that go to the theaters.
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