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Discussion Episode IX Box Office Predictions

Discussion in 'Star Wars: Episode IX - Spoilers Allowed' started by Marathonjedi77, Dec 27, 2017.

  1. jedijax

    jedijax Episode IX Treatment Contest Runner-up star 6 VIP - Game Winner

    Registered:
    May 2, 2013
    TLJ will have no more than a 2.8 multiplier. Things never looked great for Solo and I think expectations will be around $300 million domestically. Therefore, a little higher would be a nice surprise. But it will have NO bearing on IX.

    And there's no way this new trilogy will have worn out its welcome. Didn't happen with the LOTR trilogy (not Hobbit), nor HP which had EIGHT films. There's a story to finish. Fans will want to see it through. People are happy about JJ coming back. They will add fun to it. The real issue is getting the crazy opening that the first two had BUT this is the final one so that hopefully won't be an issue.

    Jumanji3 will be an issue but not in terms of box office gross but instead in terms of pulling some away.
     
  2. JediMasterSven

    JediMasterSven Jedi Knight star 2

    Registered:
    Apr 21, 2014
    I was just coming to the forums do discuss this!

    One thing I was wondering in regards to IX, is that when ROTJ came out based on the trailers and promotional materials, Jedi was hyped as the end of the trilogy and people thought that movie would be it. Then we came to the prequels and it looked like Sith was the final Star Wars film.

    Now, we move to today. Not only do we know about IX, but that there will be more spin-off films, a new Rian Johnson trilogy and at least one exec saying that "no one alive now will see the final Star Wars film( ok, this last one sounds a bit hyperbolic to me.)" We know the franchise isn't coming to an end any time soon, which I wonder if that will affect audience perceptions towards it. They can say this is the end of the saga, but with publications saying there is more beyond this, I wonder if the general audience will buy the hype. I know as a fan, I'm kind of in the same place I am any time they kill of a superhero in the comic books, "meh, give it about a year. They'll be back."
     
    Darth Nerdling likes this.
  3. Bazookaleffe

    Bazookaleffe Jedi Knight star 2

    Registered:
    Apr 30, 2014
    1.25 billion or less.
     
  4. Darth Bridge 167

    Darth Bridge 167 Jedi Padawan star 1

    Registered:
    Nov 13, 2017
    TFA: 936 million domestic, 2.06 billion worldwide
    TLJ: 615 million domestic (est), 1.35 billion worldwide (est)

    As many have said here the trend for each SW trilogy is the 1st Film always grosses the most, the 3rd film always grosses the 2nd most, and the 2nd film grosses the least. I am predicting Episode 9 to change that trend and gross the least of this trilogy (due to the backlash from TLJ).

    I say this because TLJ had a solid opening of 220 million domestic which almost equaled the 247 million from TFA, so there was a HUGE buzz for this movie. But unfortunately that 220 million ended up being 36% of the total gross compared to TFA where it was only 26% of the gross. So section of fans bailed after the great opening weekend for TLJ, and I think that will effect Episode 9.

    I predict: 500 million domestic, 1 billion worldwide.

    Star Wars will never tank, but the downward trend could be a combination of SW fatigue and TLJ Backlash.
     
  5. Jedi Knight Fett

    Jedi Knight Fett Host, PT Interview Thread star 10 VIP - Game Host

    Registered:
    Feb 18, 2014
    I can definitely see it making over 200 million on opening weekend.
     
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  6. Oissan

    Oissan Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Mar 9, 2001
    It's not a downward trend when it is common. All second movies dropped, and they all dropped in somewhat similar fashion. I see little reason to assume that the third movie is somehow going to be below Rogue One. That isn't to say that he movie will definately increase, but there is nothing to indicate another big drop either. If ROTS saw significant boosts over AOTC even with AOTC being divisive, why would IX see a significant drop instead?

    I could see a pretty similar total to TLJ, but 1b worldwide, no.
     
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2018
  7. Darth Bridge 167

    Darth Bridge 167 Jedi Padawan star 1

    Registered:
    Nov 13, 2017
    But ROTS and ROTJ was able to advertise as 'The Last SW film' of that era, and that is not the case anymore as they already announced the RJ Trilogy. ROTJ in 1983 was going to answer the question about 'I am your father', where ROTS was going to answer the question 'how Anakin came to be Darth Vader'? Those are some HUGE selling points to anyone on the fence.

    What will Episode 9 market itself with that can rival ROTJ and ROTS? Originally, it was going to be Leia's movie, but unfortunately Carrie Fisher died. Again, I'm not saying SW is a dead product, but I think the luster for alot of fans is gone and there is nothing in this movie that can have the same effect that ROTJ and ROTS did to lure them there (even if they were turned off by the previous movies).
     
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  8. jedijax

    jedijax Episode IX Treatment Contest Runner-up star 6 VIP - Game Winner

    Registered:
    May 2, 2013
    I think that the OW will be interesting. It will be right before Christmas so there will essentially be a 6-day weekend. I don't see many folks in the biz world working that Monday and most will have Tuesday off of course as well as Christmas Wednesday. We will see a stronger than normal Christmas Eve being SO close to the opening.

    I don't see the multiplier getting much past 3.1 since TLJ dropped so much. But that OW is so damn critical. They need to hook people with the right bait. Same die-hards and loyalists will line up for the finale but the casuals will depend on each person's individual perspective of TLJ.

    Luckily those who had the biggest problem with TLJ are the "die hards" and not even all of those. The casuals were fine with it and if they showed up during OW for TFA and TLJ, they will certainly do it for IX.

    I just wonder how many folks who said "no way, I am not going to see IX and TLJ killed it for me" are really just blowing hot air. But that schedule for IX is just plain SWEET and really ends up being more like a true weekend every day.
     
  9. ewoksimon

    ewoksimon Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Oct 26, 2009
    I think the ideal way to market this is to make it clear that this is the conclusion of the Skywalker saga.

    Make the tagline "Every saga has an end" to echo "Every saga has a beginning" from TPM.
     
  10. forever_jedi

    forever_jedi Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Jun 5, 2002
    I hope IX makes between 770 and 936 million domestic. VII and !X will then occupy the # 1,2 domestic spots. :) Kind of fitting.
    Rey was a big draw for many kids in TFA, especially young girls. Hopefully not only is she marketed well for IX, but also has a strong, upbeat, individual storyline to make sure those fans watch IX multiple times.
     
    Ody_Mandrell likes this.
  11. Jedi Knight Fett

    Jedi Knight Fett Host, PT Interview Thread star 10 VIP - Game Host

    Registered:
    Feb 18, 2014
    If I had to bet on it. They will market it as the last episodic Star Wars film even if that will not stay true.
     
    rocknroll41 likes this.
  12. rocknroll41

    rocknroll41 Jedi Knight star 1

    Registered:
    May 28, 2013
    Do we still think this film is likely to make more money in December 2019 than it would if it were to be delayed to May 2020?

    I don't really pay attention to numbers too much, but I would think a big blockbuster would fair better in the summer. Besides, it doesn't "feel" like the movie will be ready for December 2019, considering that JJ supposedly only gave his pitch for it to disney just a few days after TLJ was released. Back when TFA was released, Iger and Horn were already reading the script for the next one (a draft of it, at least). Sounds to me like JJ and Terrio haven't even finished a draft yet. How do they expect to meet the December 2019 date if that's the case then?
     
  13. Oissan

    Oissan Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Mar 9, 2001
    Why would a blockbuster fare better in summer?
    The three biggest movies of all time are TFA, Avatar and Titanic, all started in December. TLJ is currently sixth on that list, Rogue One eighth, meaning that five out of the top eight movies were released in December. Summer does have some big releases, but it also has the tendency to get quite crowded.

    They just pushed the movie from May to December, it shouldn't have any problems to be ready by late 2019.
    You don't need a script to be ready when you don't even plan to shoot the movie yet. There's still months left until that is supposed to happen. They have more than enough time to make the December date without any issues at all. Rogue One finished its original shooting in February 2016, about ten months prior to release, with extended reshoots happening in the summer, only five months prior to release. Episode IX is supposed to start shooting this summer, meaning the movie should be done with it way over a year before release.

    The whole process doesn't take as long as it did with the prequels, because back then Lucas had to finish one movie before he could work on the next one. This time around different people are working on different movies, which allows for a condensed schedule.
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2018
  14. chris hayes

    chris hayes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Nov 13, 2012
    I think $1.5 billion is about right ( $700mil dom $800mil rest )

    A slight rebound from TLJ going by the normal upswing from the middle chapter to the ending chapter ,
     
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  15. JoeWarner

    JoeWarner Jedi Youngling

    Registered:
    Jan 8, 2018
    South of 200 million on the opening weekend and probably just hitting a billion overall. Don't think their will be as much interest in Episode 9, especially the way they are overdoing all the spinoffs. I call it Star Wars fatigue. Milking the cow a little too much.
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2018
  16. DarthHutt

    DarthHutt Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Aug 2, 2000
    Sadly, I expect the backlash will be pretty strong, regardless of how good the film is.
    We'll how Solo does, but I'm not optimistic.
    175/490
     
  17. ewoksimon

    ewoksimon Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Oct 26, 2009
    I think it's clear now that TFA really overperformed, due the nature of the hype factoring into its release. The box office performances of Rogue One and TLJ are a bit more indicative of how these films are likely to perform in the future, so I'll say somewhere around $650 million domestic for Episode IX.
     
  18. Marathonjedi77

    Marathonjedi77 Jedi Knight star 1

    Registered:
    Nov 2, 2012
    I think the marketing for 9 will be like no other.Disney even if they publicly dont talk of the fan backlash knows what is goimg on. JJ also understands the soul of Star Wars look at the TFA trailers for evidence of that.We will have the entire saga in play for the trialers to push 9's narrative.I think it will be a monster
     
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2018
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  19. BigAl6ft6

    BigAl6ft6 Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Nov 12, 2012
    1.5 billion.
     
  20. Oissan

    Oissan Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Mar 9, 2001
    Trailers aren't really done by the director though, they are made by the marketing-department. So the TFA-trailers don't really say anything about how JJ Abrams understands the "soul" of Star Wars.
     
  21. Marathonjedi77

    Marathonjedi77 Jedi Knight star 1

    Registered:
    Nov 2, 2012


    Not true I believe JJ tweeted out he was in the editing room finishing up the trailers.A lot of Directors are involved with the cutting of the trailers.
     
  22. Skillzwalker

    Skillzwalker Jedi Knight star 3

    Registered:
    Oct 24, 2015
    Wasn't that the DVD/BR commentary?
     
  23. Oissan

    Oissan Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Mar 9, 2001
    Generally they are not, no. And i haven't heard of JJ Abrams ever talking about working on the trailers either.

    You can bet that trailers get shown to all the important people before they are released, and directors can tell the marketing department what must not be shown in any footage (Johnson talked about doing that for TLJ), but that isn't the same as directors actually working on the trailers themselves.
     
  24. ChrisLyne

    ChrisLyne Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Oct 29, 2002
    Going to agree with the majority here - less than TFA (that was a once in a lifetime event) but more than TLJ, so the normal pattern for a Star Wars trilogy.

    They aren't going to promote it as the end of Star Wars but they will promote it as the end of the Skywalker Saga. Like ewoksimon said, they could very easily mirror the PT "Every saga has a beginning" teaser with "Every saga has a end". The ROTS trailer used ANH footage, I imagine they could very easily do something that builds on the whole saga for IX's trailer. They will promote this as the conclusion. I wonder how strict they will allow JJ's mystery box to be this time as I imagine they'll want to show Luke in the trailers if he's in the film as he's the last of the big 3 and it could help draw back some of those upset by TLJ.

    The longer gap between Solo and IX should also help offset any sense of fatigue that may have been setting in with the general audience so that's a benefit to the delayed release date.
     
  25. The Legions of Lettow

    The Legions of Lettow Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Oct 14, 2015
    >$1.

    My predictions have always been perfect.
     
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