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Discussion Episode IX Box Office Predictions

Discussion in 'Star Wars: Episode IX - Spoilers Allowed' started by Marathonjedi77, Dec 27, 2017.

  1. Lee_

    Lee_ Jedi Master star 4

    Nov 3, 2012
    It's important to remember that the crowd that backlashed against TLJ was in large part a bunch of folks that didn't get invited to a lot of parties in high school or college and were virgins past their mid 20's; you know, with Coke-bottle glasses, out-of-style clothes and buck teeth :). That relatively small crowd frankly has little to do with the box office.

    TLJ was not family friendly in content or length, which had a whole lot more to do with why it didn't have a more massive box office take (although all things considered, it's box office was fantastic, it has to be if it was #1 at the box office for the year). JJ will make this more in the vein of TFA; it will be more lightweight, family friendly and not as long.

    1.5-1.8 worldwide.
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2018
    jaqen and The Legions of Lettow like this.
  2. Jamtia

    Jamtia Jedi Knight star 3

    Apr 5, 2016

    I think showing Luke in the trailer would be huge. I know the movie will make a lot regardless if Luke is in 9 or not, but a lot of people have said that TLJ was the last film in the saga for them and have no interest in seeing 9. If they are going to tie the whole saga together, there should be an awesome trailer grabbing people's attention. I know trailers mean nothing. TPM had one of the best trailers in the saga and it turned out to be a different movie than what I expected. I am just talking about for the casual movie goer trying to get hyped to go see it.

    I will see 9 multiple times regardless. But I do admit I need something awesome from the trailer to make me excited/care for what really comes next and how the saga ends.
    ChrisLyne likes this.
  3. Skillzwalker

    Skillzwalker Jedi Knight star 3

    Oct 24, 2015
    Casual movie goer will not be affected by Luke being in it or not though, that will only affect those overly invested in Luke that like you say have vowed not to return and those numbers are relatively very small
    MaciekRS and KembaSkywalker like this.
  4. Jamtia

    Jamtia Jedi Knight star 3

    Apr 5, 2016
    Depends on how you define a casual movie goer and its tastes. Let's say the casual movie goer doesn't care about any of the new characters and only cares about the big name characters. Then what?
  5. Darth Chiznuk

    Darth Chiznuk Superninja of New Films star 6 Staff Member Manager

    Oct 31, 2012
    894 jillion dollars.
    jaqen likes this.
  6. Skillzwalker

    Skillzwalker Jedi Knight star 3

    Oct 24, 2015
    I really do not think a casual movie goer will not go because Luke is not in the movie. If they did not like TLJ then sure they may not bother but if they liked it but were a bit sad about Luke they will go to see how it all ends.
  7. The Legions of Lettow

    The Legions of Lettow Jedi Master star 4

    Oct 14, 2015
    I just watched Colbert and JJ on YT. Colbert said $803 min.
  8. Baron_Papanerd

    Baron_Papanerd Jedi Master star 4

    May 1, 2014
    I think the success of Episode IX at the Box Office, will largely be determined on how they handle Luke's inevitable return as a Force Ghost. If they handle Luke's return similar to Yoda's Force Ghost return in TLJ, but with even more screen time and impact to the Story, it could create a lot of good buzz from viewers. Episode IX may not have a super huge opening weekend because of some disappointment with TLJ; but the good word of mouth, from the people who did see it opening weekend, ie. "Luke returns, like you have never seen a Force Ghost before. Even more than Yoda in TLJ. It really puts a nice finish to the Saga", could really give Episode IX good legs in it's overall run.
    IlhamKamaruddin likes this.
  9. jedijax

    jedijax Episode IX Treatment Contest Runner-up star 6 VIP - Game Winner

    May 2, 2013
    Hmmm.....I think there is a possibility that Lion King could top IX in 2019.
  10. IlhamKamaruddin

    IlhamKamaruddin Jedi Padawan star 1

    Nov 29, 2017
    Depending on how Infinity War does but Avengers 4 might beat it up too. I do have a prediction, the top 3 movies ( in no order ) domestically and world-wide will be Avengers 4, The Lion King and Star Wars: Episode IX. Who wins? Disney :)
    Seeher and jaqen like this.
  11. Marathonjedi77

    Marathonjedi77 Jedi Knight star 1

    Nov 2, 2012
    I agree with this the end of the 10 year story arc with most of the super hero's dying will be mega huge and Lion King has the potential also to be big.
  12. CaptainEO

    CaptainEO Jedi Master star 1

    Mar 13, 2002
    Fifty Thousand, No Less.
    ChrisLyne, rorow1 and Krueger like this.
  13. jofos

    jofos Jedi Knight star 2

    Apr 25, 2015
    ROTJ had to answer is Darth Vader Luke's father, ROTS showed Anakin turn to Vader, IX doesn't have a lot of questions to answer. Sure does Kylo get redeemed, but if he does its going to be called a rehash. Rian took to much of the mystery out of the box. IX will not top TLJ.
  14. IlhamKamaruddin

    IlhamKamaruddin Jedi Padawan star 1

    Nov 29, 2017
    But are we asking the right questions? :(
  15. Oissan

    Oissan Force Ghost star 7

    Mar 9, 2001
    Whether Vader was actually Luke's father didn't define what ROTJ was about. What mattered was Luke being able to turn him to the light, and the final battle against the Empire itself, not the answer to the question if Vader was actually Luke's father. The answer to that question is already given before the rebels even meet up. And while ROTS did show Anakin turning into Vader, that whole thing was anything but a mystery. Everyone knew that it would happen, which means that this point actually hurts your argument.

    IX could obviously not be a rehash of ROTJ, because Kylo Ren is the top dog now. The chances of being a rehash would have been much bigger if Snoke were still around, because that would have created the same situation as in ROTJ, a powerful villain and a conflicted antagonist as his henchman.
  16. Birkendoc

    Birkendoc Co-Purveyor of ST Trivia star 4 VIP - Game Host

    Sep 20, 2001
    Casual film goer would not respond to a bait and switch as much as a hardcore fan if Luke is suggested to be the hero of IX when, in fact, he’d be a cameo playing a ghost.
  17. dragonchic

    dragonchic Jedi Master star 3

    Nov 9, 2015
    Call me crazy but I wouldn't be surprised if IX makes around what TLJ did. I know the OT/PT pattern is that the third movie's box office improves on the second, but ROTJ and ROTS both had the benefit of being the (supposed) last Star Wars movie at the time of release. Knowing there's a steady stream of new SW films in the pipeline, I'm not sure if the "end of the Saga" will really be that huge a hook for the general audience, especially with the legacy characters essentially gone. I guess it'll be a test of how much people care about the new kids.

    Granted, I'm saying this with zero knowledge of IX's plot, marketing strategy, etc. But it does seem like some of the conditions that drove the uptick for the third film in the OT and PT may not really apply this time around.
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2018
  18. GregMcP

    GregMcP Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Jul 7, 2015
    The uptick is finding out what happens to Rey.
  19. Jamtia

    Jamtia Jedi Knight star 3

    Apr 5, 2016
    The trailers will need to show her suffering or hint at something happening to her, as she has yet to go unscathed in this saga. I feel like more people want to see what happens to Kylo if he will die, be redeemed, locked away, etc.
  20. Daxon101

    Daxon101 Jedi Knight star 3

    Jan 7, 2016
    while you could argue ROTJ and ROTS felt like conclusions to their trilogies i don't know whether there is enough there in this new trilogy that would benefit from a conclusion.

    BUT its still star wars so it will probably crack a billion with worse case scenario 910 mil
  21. AhsokaSolo

    AhsokaSolo Force Ghost star 5

    Dec 23, 2015
    I just don't see the hook for IX with my friends and family that compares to RotS or RotJ. Everyone was waiting to see Anakin become Vader. Everyone was waiting to see if Vader was telling the truth and what that meant. Even the monster opening weekend for TLJ came after a cliffhanger that left people super pumped. I don't know anything about the marketing or the story for IX, but I just think the lack of that kind of hype for what happens next gives IX a bigger hurdle to clear than those other movies.

    Ultimately, though, it really seems unpredictable at this point. Because of the way VIII played out, I don't even have an inkling of what IX will be about besides the basic Rebels vs. Empire plot. It depends on the movie and the hook used to sell the movie, which at this point could go many ways.
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2018
  22. Django Fett

    Django Fett Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Nov 7, 2012
    I think the majority of the audience will go into IX with trepidation, hoping for a great film and satisfying conclusion rather than expecting one. Of course you will still have the happy clappers who will lap up anything that has Star Wars above the title, they'll always search out every reason to excuse any plot hole or uncharacteristic character's trait no matter what.
    Darth Smurf likes this.
  23. Oissan

    Oissan Force Ghost star 7

    Mar 9, 2001
    Wow, talk about projecting your own feelings onto others...

    No, the majority of the audience most definately won't go with "trepidations" into IX, because the majority of the audience was just fine with TFA and TLJ. You are confusing a sub-group of fans with the majority of people. This particular sub-group is not speaking for the majority of fans, and it most definately isn't speakling for the general audience, which makes up the largest part of those who see the movie, and which always only cares about being entertained for a short while before moving on to something different.

    It is also rather insulting to act as if someone who happens to like Star Wars movies is willingly ignoring huge flaws and is fine with everything, while you are some sort of sophisticated movie-goer who knows the "objective" truth about these movies. You aren't any better than anyone else. You don't get to say who is liking what for which reason. You are just as prone to disliking something because you want to dislike it, searching for supposed flaws or making them up if needed to justify your dislike, as others may for the opposite. This bit is nothing but arrogance on your part.
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2018
    redxavier and Generational Fan like this.
  24. Darth Smurf

    Darth Smurf Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Dec 22, 2015
    And why are you doing exactly the same like the person you critizise?
    Django Fett likes this.
  25. bluealien1

    bluealien1 Jedi Knight star 2

    Aug 14, 2015
    Being the end of the "Skywalker" Saga I think it will make more then TLJ,maybe the most of any starwars film.

    Critics will end up loving it and calling it a good ending to a series.Majority of audience will like/love it.Fans will be divided.Some calling it the best since ESB and others will say it is the worst ever.

    Did i miss anything?:p
    dogprivilege and IlhamKamaruddin like this.