ST Episode IX Box Office Discussion

U can always make a great movie and give fans what they want. Not mutually exclusive in anyway. There are lot of examples for that too. (TDK trilogy)

Sent from my Mi A1 using Tapatalk

 

Better than Solo but worse than TLJ. If they bring Luke back they will make more. Audiences don't care enough about the newer characters.

 

There is no such thing as "giving the fans what they want". The whole idea is already ridiculous to begin with. Fans aren't a hive-mind, they don't collectively agree on what is good and what is bad. And the larger the fanbase is, the more likely it is to be divided into different groups.

For every fan who hated TLJ you will also find at least one who loved it and the direction the movie took. How are you planning on giving both these sides something they will be very happy with when conceptionally they disgaree completely about the direction the movies should move towards?
Star Wars is divided into so many different sub-parts, you have the OT, PT, ST, anthology movies, old EU, new EU, tv-shows and in some parts even an overlap of these things (e.g. ST and anthology coming from Disney and being sometimes treated as one and sometimes treated indivdually). All these parts have their fans, and you very much have people who agree on the quality of one part while completely disagreeing on another one. There are those who like all movies, those who only like the OT, those who like the OT and PT but not the ST, those who like the OT and ST but not the PT, and a whole lot of other options, before you even enter all the tv-shows and EU-material.

Getting all these different opinions together - and you will never reach a true consensus, there will always be at least some level of disagreement - would require either something truly amazing that is very rare in the history of cinema, or something that is so bland and nostalgia-driven that its basics appeal enough to everyone that hardly anyone dislikes it, without really creating a huge level of fondness either. And you certainly aren't getting anything new with that approach.

 

@Oissan said it better than i could. There's not one type of fans. Not even two or three. So it's impossible to please the fans since there are a lot of opposite comceptual sensibilities. And a movie has to choose a tone, a concept, a goal. To please every fan means that every possible SW would have to happen at once on screen.

For every person in the audience who would have cheered if Luke brought down a star destroyer with the force another one would have face-palmed...some people are only interested in Rey Skywalkers, others would have rolled their eyes...some people loved the no-blade-contact minimalist luke vs kylo battle, others were angry they couldnt see luke fight like space ninja on cocaine...

Dont try to please the fans...they dont want the same things...just write and make what you believe will be a great SW movie.

I am a musician, im not famous but have a small fanbase -very small yes but still haha- the last thing i would do is think about being sure they'll like what i write and record next

 

@The PiedPiper of Alderaan Yeah the "don't try to please fans...." can only take them so far. Disney is all about pleasing fans and have done pretty darn good with that model despite the few flops here and there. Didn't do too well to get fans on board for TLJ's acceptance. The idea of "write and make what you believe will be a great SW movie" sounds nice and, to be honest, is an absolutely WONDERFUL model for the average Jo Schmo like me who likes to come up with story ideas. However, in the real world it doesn't work out quite as well as it does in our own little minds.

I like your bit about writing music and hoping others will like it too. That's how all writers should behave rather than be confined to what they think others will like. But this is Disney we're talking about. Risk hasn't paid off quite as well these days as we all would like it to. The biggest risk that paid off for them was Maleficent which was a surprise hit. Beyond that they followed the textbook rules. Nothing I'd like to see more than a whole new original idea taking off the way the original ANH did or even movies like Indy and ET. Not sure we have a climate for such original ideas taking off that way. Not with the current cost of production being what it is. Leave that for the indie film makers.

 

Looks like the new He Man movie coming out the same weekend as episode 9. This will affect the numbers as a lot of the target audience will see the He Man movie... This will affect a lot of people who may have otherwise gone to Star Wars more than once...

Also... Considering the backlash, etc...

 

I don't know about He-Man being competition. Seems like there is only about a five year window for people to have been the right age for there to be any connection to the property. A lot of fans of Star Wars in 1977 were already too old for He-Man. And I doubt the kids who grew up on the prequels or The Clone Wars have any connection to Castle Greyskull.

If He-Man the movie is any good, it might even get pushed back for fear it gets buried by Star Wars.

 

That's the thing, really. One can be more than happy with how Luke was handled in TLJ and still not come back for IX.

We know for a fact that many, many people, fans and casual viewers alike, waited years to find out what happened to the OT3/Luke. For better or for worse, they found out. It's over. Are they quite as curious about the fate of the new characters?

 

I know plenty of young people who love and adore Finn and Rey.

Star Wars' ticket sales were built on the backs of young people in the seventies. With the younger demographic on its side, this film will make money.

I find it odd that we're saying that a majority of the audience will turn away from the franchise now that the OT3 are gone, considering the worst performing of the Disney films just happens to be the only one solely about an OT character

 

Try to get them to buy more toys/merch. Particularly the Finn lovers.

While you're at it, try to get foreign markets to get 1/3 as excited about SW as they are about the MCU. Pay particular attn to China and South Korea in your efforts.

 

I meant teenagers mostly, but either way, it's an unfair comparison. Fewer and fewer children are playing with action figures and other toys and instead embrace touch screens (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...ldren-play-touchscreens-traditional-toys.html). Finn and Rey were never going to sell as many toys as Han and Luke or Mace and Darth Maul because our culture has changed. I have family members who are 7 and 8 and I've never once seen them play with toys but I have seen them grab a tablet. And you know what? They've got Star Wars games on them.

Perhaps the reason those toys are not selling as well is because it's the old collector guys who aren't buying the toys

Absolute straw man. I never said anything about foreign markets nor did I say anything about this Star Wars universe in comparison with the Marvel universe. My post was only about how the current generation is embracing Rey and Finn in comparison with previous generations embracing characters of their era.

Let's talk about China, I suppose, while we're at it. We don't have foreign market data for the original trilogy - that is lost or at least I don't know how to find it. I can, however, tell you that these current Star Wars films are far out-pacing what the prequels made in China. All four of them are in China's top 375 openings, and Solo, which did the worst in China, made more on its first weekend there than Revenge of the Sith did in its entire run. If Star Wars isn't performing well in China & South Korea, I honestly really doubt it's because of Finn and Rey considering they've made much more than their prequel counterparts. (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/china/opening/) (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=starwars3)

Also, both The Force Awakens & The Last Jedi made more abroad than they did in the US, which is pretty impressive considering that The Force Awakens is the highest grossing film of all time domestically and The Last Jedi sits at #8. (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic.htm). Not to mention both of those films sit near the top of the international highest-grossing of all time lists as well, at #3 and #11 respectively (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/). A film doesn't have to be gang-busters in China & South Korea to be successful. Ask Titanic, a film which sits #2 on the list, ahead of every Star Wars film and Marvel film on the highest-grossing all time list worldwide, yet managed to only make a measily 43m at the Chinese box office (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=titanic.htm). Which, of course, just so happens to be about 7m less than what the Force Awakens made there in its opening weekend alone, and close to a third of what it made overall (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=starwars7.htm).

I'm sorry, but the only ticket sales you have to point to indicating lethargy for the Disney Star Wars era is for the only film dedicated to the OT character. Finn and Rey are fine. John Boyega and Daisy Ridley are insanely popular with younger millennials and children. Ridley had to delete her instagram because she was being harassed by idiot neckbeards, but go look at Boyega's 1.7m followers on Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/johnboyega/?hl=en).

Also - it seems kind of like hogwash to say that nobody cares about the new characters considering this forum and others like it contain some of the biggest critics of TLJ and it's these same forums which have talked incessantly for years about Rey's parentage...

 

.... because foreign markets don't have "current generations"? Chinese and South Korean movie going audiences skew incredibly young and they ain't embracing anything Star Wars.

You see the BO Mojo links you posted? Take a good look at the foreign break-downs for each movie. Focus on the Star Wars friendly markets (UK, Australia, Japan, Germany and France) first and see if you can spot a trend with them. Then take a good look at how much, say, Australia contributed to the total gross of TLJ. Then compare that to what China, where TLJ tanked, contributed.

Star Wars is losing ground quickly in markets the brand can not afford to lose.

Titanic was a stand-alone. Star Wars is a franchise. A franchise planning on releasing at least one movie a year. These movies won't coast on what they haul domestically forever, mate.

Sticking with this prediction for IX for now. Best case scenario for how much it can haul overseas right now seems to be somewhere between 700 and 750 mil. (Assuming Europe and Japan respond very positively.)

 

I would say a 150 million opening weekend or so and its worldwide haul will be somewhere around 800 million I just can't see it hitting TLJ numbers after the reaction everyone has had to Solo and the fans that are still mad about TLJ. Now if it's great that could change but I am not sure that JJ will stick the landing for IX as his shows and movies often have issues with the third acts. If he could that would be amazing because the brand needs another solid movie.

 

I wouldn't say they don't care I personally really liked Rey, Finn and Poe in TFA. After TLJ I don't care to see how their stories wrap up, I didn't like how their characters progressed and nothing about them leading us through IX is exciting to me currently maybe JJ can change that.

 

Lower than TFA, higher TLJ....i think JJ will deliver a more "classicist" version of SW instead of the most cerebral/post-modern take of it that RJ did. So numbers at the BO will improve.

As someone who loves TLJ i hope JJ (and Disney/Lucasfilm) wont play it too safe and will take some risk. The closure of the ST (and potentially the whole saga) needs more than a fun ride, even a great...it also needs strong themes and depth to elevate it.

 

I don't think it will be higher than TLJ. TLJ made a killer OW because of the anticipation set up from TFA. I think most people were not doing repeat viewings and thus the steep declines to follow. I think we may see a decline as we did with Matrix 3 and POTC 3. While TFA set up for a huge return crowd for TLJ, I don't think TLJ is setting up for a "must see OW" crowd for IX. I think IX will make less in its OW than either and could see an OW less than $200 million (I am actually predicting it). Then I don't see IX having the staying power of TFA-probably more like TLJ.

The only way I see that changing is if JJ REALLY knocks it out of the park and gives us a finale that is in the ballpark of LOTR (of course that was a pre-destined finale because of the books). Once again, there is NOTHING specific that people are eagerly anticipating. It's been said OVER and OVER again. ROTJ had the Carbonite and Vader reveal to follow up on. ROTS had the two moments the PT was made for-Obi vs Ani and Ani finally turning into Vader. Can't say that IX has any of that. JJ will have to pull some tricks from his sleeve to overcome the TLJ issues.

And there's the competition. Not a horrible amount but between Wicked and of course Jumanji not to mention holiday holdover from Frozen 2 it'll be there.

But I am hoping he does. I just am not able to project on that hope quite yet.
OW: $190-$200 million
DOM: $550-$575 million
WW: $1.1-$1.2 billion

 

At this point I'm very pessimistic about SW box-office.

OW: $150m
DOM: $425m
WW: $800m

 

I'd say that's a bit extreme.

 

Considering how far Solo has fallen, I wouldn’t say that. Regardless of whether or not the audiences really wanted it, it is a Star Wars film that looks to be struggling to make 400 million at the box office. So it is possible that IX will make much lower numbers than its predecessors, especially with none of the original trio being present (ghost Luke won’t make much of a difference) and no big hook to make it a must see.

 

There is the potential for some backlash from TLJ, but I don't think it'll have too dramatic of an effect so long as the marketing isn't completely terrible. I think it'll be in the same ballpark as TLJ at worst and so long as the marketing isn't terrible it will likely more. To clarify, it won't get near TFA levels and I think getting to 700 million is probably unlikely, but it could get close.

I expect IW and BP levels are a realistic ceiling and between 600-620 is a realistic floor.

 

Right below $900m worldwide.

 

Those numbers are not at all comparable. Movie-going and cinema culture has exploded in China between when the prequels came out and now. For their time, they did respectful buisness, the exposure just wasn`t enough for the market to really build an opinion on Star Wars as a whole. But I`ve read some Chinese box office insiders said the prequels played fine in China back then because they check the boxes for what is popular there.

However, for all intents and purposes the new Star Wars movies was the true real first impression the franchise made there and the name is toxic now. Disney/LFL either write off the Asian (minus Japan) or Latin American markets altogether or have to try with something entirely new there.

It`s the SW-friendly overseas markets that are facing a downward trend, though. Episode 9 will play higher than Solo there but most likely lower than TLJ. And those are not huge markets, combined they can make up - if they have good numbers - for one China maybe but not for all the other exploding markets around the world where SW currently doesn`t play well.

 

Someone pointed out in the Solo box office thread that Episode 9 doesn't have the luxury of being "the last Star Wars movie" like ROTJ or ROTS. People know Star Wars will continue after Episode 9. That wasn't the case with ROTJ and ROTS. I wouldn't be surprised if Episode 9 breaks the trend of the 3rd movie in the trilogy making more money than the middle chapter.

 

If all goes well, Episode 9 should be an "Infinity War"-level situation where it's seen as the grand culmination of a nine movie arc even though there are going to be movies coming after it. Disney's got 1.5 years to hype this movie up and it won't miss its chance to do so. The only problem is, and I can only speak to the Star Wars fans that I know, there isn't much excitement at all for Episode 9, though it should be noted that these are all people that disliked TLJ more than I did, the GA might feel a lot different about Episode 9. Abrams will make a crowd pleaser though, so I'll revise my initial estimate of $1.7 billion to $1.5 billion.

 

But remember, for the Marvel die-hards, Thanos was always a "thing". Then when they teased Thanos after Avengers, it became real. It was always leading up to Thanos. When would they feature Thanos? When would they bring everyone together? The Thanos build up was on the level of having the famous Obi-Wan vs Anakin duel. IX doesn't have any of that. That is why it is so much more difficult since there is nothing specific that has been building. One could say that if they waited with Snoke and Rey's parentage, they would have had something. But not so much. That's why, as I said in the "hook" thread they NEED to nail it with the trailers because that's all they've got. Make the stakes extremely high, make Kylo extremely powerful and Rey in despair. Set the stakes with the trailers. They have between the first teaser and the film to build that kind of anticipation for IX as they did for Thanos for years. Because TLJ just didn't cut it in that area.