ST Episode VII Box Office Discussion

... come again? I really can't see any kind of logic in that apart from taking two separate chronologies and mashing them together.

But if you ARE going down that road, the Brosnan era was a great success for box office. But as I say, I just have no idea what this is based on.

 

May I just chime in for a second. I am only 18, and while I grew up with the prequel trilogy, the originals have always been my favorite. And I have a handful of friends that are the same age and feel the same as I do. I would guarantee there are many more groups like my friends. Also think of all the parents that are in their mid-thirties bringing their 9/10 year old children to this movie. There will be a whole new generation for these films.

 

it's true that below a certain age kids see whatever their parents want them to see, and I'm sure some of them will be brought to Star Wars through no particular desire of their own. But after 11 or so, up to about age 25, there aren't many people interested in Star Wars. I know that [young person reading this] is an exception. The grandfatherly demographic that loves the OT above all other movies was an extremely big group in its more youthful days, but many of them don't go to the movies any more. The PT didn't really create a large new generation of SW fans either, so TFA doesn't have all that big a well to draw from.

Yes, it will break even. Yes it will do well enough to justify the sequels already in the works. Yes it may even scrape past $1 billion worldwide. Will it reinvigorate Star Wars as a franchise for young moviegoers? Doubtful.

 

There is definitely a contingent of people who seem to believe that just because kids had Star Wars in movie theaters when they grew up, their favorite Star Wars is that version of it.

In fact, a lot of the "but kids!" aspect of Star Wars never seems to actually come from kids. It comes from adults speaking for kids as a means to win their adult arguments.

Anecdotal evidence: My nephews and nieces grew up while Prequels were in theaters, hitting DVD, all that. And when they decided to dress up as "Star Wars"one Halloween - they went as Han, Chewie, and Leia. Nobody told them to do that. Their parents didn't push them into that, and neither did their Hobbity uncle with the projection screen set-up. They just did it.

There are lots of film series where the gateway isn't necessarily the favorite. Some kids found out about Indiana Jones via that TV show. Most people still recognize Raiders as the best/favorite. Some kids, their first Alien movie was Resurrection. Doesn't stop them from working backwards and discovering ALIENS and losing their minds. A TON of people first got into Star Trek through the Next Generation. Their favorite movie isn't First Contact, though. And to use a Bond comparison since it was brought up before: there are SO MANY people who hopped on during the Roger Moore era who recognize what a ridiculous, not at all good era that was. Doesn't mean they still don't have fond memories and enjoy those Moore movies. But you ask them about James Bond, and they're gonna talk to you about Connery when they talk to you about classics. (Although Craig's got a better average when it comes to really good Bond films than everyone else BUT Connery. And he's never made anything as bad as Diamonds are Forever)

There's a long-running fallacy that says Star Wars fans that fit in the age range between 5-15 during the years 1999-2005 are all, by default, devoted prequel followers. And some of them definitely are. And some of them considered those films a nice "in" to the universe - and then discovered the other movies - and THAT became "STAR WARS" to them.

Just like 20 year olds now aren't nostalgic for Jurassic Park III when they head out to the theaters, even though their first JP was that film.

 

Went to see Mad Max Fury Road yesterday and saw the teaser poster in person finally.

When I initially saw it online I hated it, thought it was overtly simple. Now that I've seen it in person, it's perfect. It stands out from the other posters. It says all it needs to say: This is a Star Wars film, and it's coming out in December.

 

I don't think anyone really believes the PT stocked up a big bank of public nostalgia. Nostalgia is definitely not something that can readily be paid forward. Just because I took my son to see TPM in 1999 in deference to my own nostalgia for the OT, doesn't mean that he feels particularly nostalgic about his TPM experience. He doesn't. Just because I watched season one of The Clone Wars CGI edition with my youngest son doesn't mean he feels any nostalgia for the experience. He doesn't really. He feels nostalgic about us watching Avatar: The Last Airbender together. That was his big childhood tv experience. He doesn't really have any movie experiences comparable to Star Wars of 1977 and the generation of kids who made it the biggest movie of all time, save for Gone With the Wind. Movies don't mean much to them period, because they have so many other forms of entertainment to choose from. My youngest son doesn't even watch one hour of television a week. Too many other things to do, and thank goodness for that. The days of boob tube enslavement are mostly over. And he doesn't go to the movies more than twice a year.

 

The teaser poster is a nice one i think too. There is a lot of horrible photoshopped crap on display these days. I know there was cheesy and bad promo posters in the 80s and 90s too, although the art of creating something unusual and classy seems lost. TFA poster, well, its minimalistic you could say. And maybe that works well because people are tired of getting to much visual information, and information that does not really say anything about a movie.

 

Jabbadabbado - this is all just anecdotal, and my experience is exactly the opposite. I was 7 when I saw TPM (my first Star Wars movie) and I, and most of my friends/siblings/cousins etc of my generation, have very very fond memories of TPM and the PT in general - it was a landmark movie for our generation and whenever it's on television here in England, there is always a lot of fond chatter about it on Facebook/Twitter etc. Many people of my generation really loved those movies at the time, probably as much as your generation loved the OT. Sure, we do of course see now that the OT is much better and the PT is, suffice it to say, not as good 10-15 years on when you've gone from age 7 to 22 - but nostalgia and sheer joyous excitement over-ride those things.

This is not a unique thing, there are tons of examples of people ignoring the relative quality of works because they have personal associations. How many tacky Christmas tunes are there that come back every single year, despite the fact that they're awful? People love those songs despite their badness because they love that "feeling" of hearing it - just like people love that "feeling" of watching a SW film, whenever you may have entered the franchise.

But, as I say, we're just two people arguing over two opposing anecdotes and I don't mean to say "you're wrong" - merely that your own personal experience is, in my opinion, not particularly indicative of how the 18-25 bracket is going to feel about this film.

 

What teaser poster are you referring to? Are you talking about the words STAR WARS THE FORCE AWAKENS on space? Is that even a real thing because I've yet to see it in any theater yet.

As for nostalgia, it's interesting about JP as an example. I wanted to feel nostalgia when I saw Lost World and JP3 but felt absolutely none whatsoever. Maybe they were too soon after the original. However, JW gave me a helluva lot of nostalgia. Maybe nostalgia can be defined by time. The hype for the PT was nostalgic but the first two movies at least missed the mark,. I felt that the last one was a little more plot and drama heavy and gave a great retro segue to the OT. I think Abrams and Kasdan probably know that and were aiming for more direct nostalgia with TFA. We'll see how it plays out and whether that nostalgia that is pretty obvious by the spoilers receives positive reviews from the critics are disappoints them as a forced effort to relive the magic created back in 1977. I hope it's the former and not the latter but there will certainly be somewhat of a mix.

 

The one thing that is absolutely and unequivocally true is that in the United States Star Wars brand awareness is pretty high across almost all moviegoing age groups except of course the youngest. That doesn't always mean brand reputation and appeal is as high as awareness, and there's a split between the OT and the PT. I'm not alone in thinking of Star Wars as the Original Trilogy and the Belated Trilogy.

It's not a given that people will accept post Lucas Star Wars as Star Wars at all. You won't know whether it really gets included in Star Wars until you see it. Post Star Wars Star Wars is a mouthful. Maybe it will be the Original Trilogy, the Prequel Trilogy and the Disney Trilogy.

No one's really considered the idea that audiences will reject the franchise entirely on the grounds that it's no longer really Star Wars, something that will be doubly true in a post John Williams world. And if TFA isn't a relatively good movie, that may well happen.

Imagine what will happen if Abrams can't even connect with audiences when handed a Star Wars movie to make. Who do you bring in to save Star Wars then? George Lucas? He already ruined the saga once.

If TFA fails, Disney may actually be forced to do something revolutionary and creative to try to salvage the brand.

 

I'd rather see Channing Tatum shake what he got than the Terminator.

Can we stop talking about the Prequels all the time? No matter what thread there is, people bring up the Prequels. They have their own forum.

 

I think you're talking serious worst case scenario there. Regardless of the brand identification, the film would have to be monumentally poor to lead that many people to desert the franchise. Change itself won't necessarily drive anyone away (look at Star Trek, Doctor Who, James Bond which thrive on constant change) as long as the quality remains high or at least acceptable.

 

That might even mean rethinking this mad dash to release a new Star Wars movie every year.

But I can't see TFA 'failing'. Even the PT surprisingly well despite all the criticism. Disney has a lot riding on this movie, and I'm certain they are careful not screw things up.

 

pretty well is key.

There's Star Wars and the three most successful sequels of all time. Then two more or less standard issue blockbusters. TPM is the movie that got to ride the coattails of OT nostalgia, but the damage it did to the brand cost the sequel train about a third of its audience.

I'm not convinced that any other sequel will get to ride the coattails of ANH. Yes, Star Wars can still make AotC and RotS money, but TFA will have to achieve something extraordinary to get back the audience it lost between TPM and AotC.

TFA is only Star Wars if and when general audiences say it is.

 

I do think you're somewhat over-thinking it. It's as simple as "Chewie, we're home". As far as I've seen, that had pretty much everyone sold. That trailer has the highest views proportional to time in YouTube history, don't forget.

 

Prequels are a much harder sell than sequels. TFA is a sequel for older audiences and a reboot for younger audiences. It's essentially leapfrogging over the PT and offers everyone a new entry point.

 

Btw, just judging by Monday and today's totals, JW will be pulling in around $24-$25 million during the week and probably around $35 million this weekend. That will bring it up to $559 million by the end of the weekend. At this rate, it will hit $600 million the following weekend or be VERY close and will certainly do it by Monday, July 6. That's 5 weekends or a little over to hit $600 million. Another record smashed. I guess I was WAY wrong. Mid-$600 millions looks certain and beating Titanic (3D and all) seems like a decent shot.

The better this movie does, the more hopes I have for TFA breaking $500 million domestic at least.

 

That's pretty lame my friend. Let's see these specific marketing studies that show convincing evidence that stores keep multpile aisles of SW toys on the shelves for years because of parents accidentally buying them what they don't want. That is silly, which is why you will not show any such study, you saw those in a wishful-thinking dream.

 

Does it even matter why kids keep getting SW toys? Either way, the brand is established for children.

 

jedijax: Yes, i did mean the poster with TFA words on space background. It is also on display here in Berlin.

Artoo - Dion: Good point about prequels being a harder sell. For that case, maybe Lucas`s trilogy did perform pretty good. Although we knew the destiny of Anakin already, it was quite risky plotwise, lots of loose cards to handle, a lot to cover, and you could turn the story in many directions. That said, i believe Abrams have a tough task too. There might be an honor of having such strong emotional attachment to the material and the characters, characters we already identify with, but there is so much that could go wrong too - there should be something for everyone literally, with this first movie, accompany a broad audience, 3 or 4 generations that is, mix classic with new edgy, its a set up for the trilogy etc etc.

 

Not an accident. It's standard purchasing heuristics. That's what brands are for: something the brain uses as a shortcut instead of more complex decision making. And parents simply do not have a lot of information when they're buying presents for other kids. It's true, there is a percentage of toy purchases that is based on what kids demand. And that's mostly about parents buying things for their own children because they care about them and know them. Then there is the very large class of toy purchases that are made without any knowledge whatsoever about what the child wants or is interested in. And Lego Star Wars has a broad selection of items designed exactly for that.

 

Let's see your marketing studies that prove this to be the reason SW toys are bought; you contend that kids don't much like SW, you've said this umpteen times in this thread. Show us some factual research specific to SW that shows this is true, stop the meaningless and tangential banter. Let's see your research, stop the dodging. Otherwise you are just spewing meaningless nonsense. Link us to the actual numbers.

 

Again - this guy has already, openly, admitted there are no numbers, and all his prognostications are based solely on personal anecdote

There is no data. It won't be coming. You have to decide whether you feel like engaging further past that point is worth your time.

This weekend, Inside Out might end up taking #1, as apparently the loss of IMAX screens is hurting Jurassic World a little more than previously expected. Magic Mike is still maintaining a lead over Terminator.

There's gonna be a buncha movies occupying the 25-35 million dollar range in the top 5 this weekend.

 

I suppose you are right, not a worthy debate if there are no numbers to debate.

That's an interesting way to put it, I kind of thought that in different words. It will kind of be an adjoining point for all different generations of SW fans.

 

Do you seriously doubt that TFA will get past $1 billion worldwide? I think it will sail past it.

I think the audience is already back and raring to go. Which is why TFA has good chances of being the highest grossing film of this new trilogy. It happens all the time, people get excited about a release, but then the sequels often lose a portion of the audience.

If you get it right, you'll get to say "I told you so" to everyone, but TFA has every stone set in place to be a huge financial success. Maybe not the next $2 billion film, but $1.5 billion isn't out of the question for me.

TPM has around $700 million domestically in adjusted numbers. Given the recent success of Jurassic World, I think that it isn't foolish to expect TFA being in the $500 to $700 million range domestically.