ST Episode VII Box Office Discussion

If you were Disney, what would you be doing differently from what they are doing already?

(serious question, btw -- not rhetorical)

 

Speaking of brands that children are actually interested in, I'm not going to be surprised at all if Minions becomes the third Universal $1 billion hit of 2015.

 

I actually think the current approach is quite shrewd and methodical. I don't doubt that kids aren't rushing to buy SW merch at this point, but they aren't pushing SW hard to that market yet anyway. At the moment the primary purpose of marketing efforts seems to merely be to realign the SW brand with OT iconography and increase general brand awareness. They seem to be ticking marketing boxes off one at a time without bombarding the public so far out from release.

 

This is a company that once prepped for the marketing onslaught that was The Phantom Menace 3 years in advance by having the marketing department sell a movie release without actually making the movie.

Now add JJ Abrams, who is pretty damned savvy at knowing how to sell his films, with the weight and power of the Disney machine underwriting everything.

I wouldn't worry about the marketing campaign's effectiveness.

 

The guys running Infinities are kind of their own thing. In an interview when the line was announced, they stated very clearly they were taking a different approach to the line than the rest of the corporation. In their minds it made sense to tie Infinities into something that was familiar with kids... namely Clone Wars since Rebels was so new.

Xinau My first move would probably have been to not cancel Clone Wars since the show was doing quite well in ratings and had proven itself to be a good bridge with kids... then I would have segued into Rebels. I find it amusing for a show that was supposed to be doing it's own thing, that only 13 episodes in and it's becoming a Clone Wars fest with Ahsoka, Rex, Hondo, and others set to make appearances. The move was clearly financial (Clone Wars cost a lot), and Disney seemed to want to move away from the Prequel era like the plague... that was a mistake. Old farts like myself aren't the future of the brand; sure Iger needs to show quick returns to the investors, but if Disney has grand visions of the brand lasting 25-40 years (based on their own internal projections); then it's time to move on from the 30/40/50-somethings.

As the Infinities guys said, the PT and TCW was the entry to Star Wars for most kids, so basically Disney is pissing all this money away trying to "educate" kids on the OT (as if these kids don't already know the story of the OT) with little to show for it right now. That's not to say Disney is not doing some good things... the comic line is relatively successful, and Battlefront is sure to be a hit which should help the fortunes of future Star Wars video games. However there have been missteps along the way, and in some areas the brand is showing signs of weakness. But just slapping up a bunch of OT-centric product on shelves of Disney stores expecting kids to flock to it is foolish. That Big 3 backpack may look cool to me, and I may have desperately wished I had that summer of 77, but to a kid it's a backpack for a nearly 40 year old film, and you can't get past that.

But the reality is in the world of Disney the Parks is where the big revenue is at, and clearly that's where Disney is going to focus most of its energies for the next 5 years... Now THAT's a smart move, but a ride attraction is probably one of the first things I would have gotten fast tracked as soon as the ink was dry on George's signature. The delay on that end was not smart, and if Star Wars does not end up performing to expectations Disney could really take a bath in terms of total cost for the franchise plus new park attractions.

I would also caution those who think Disney marketing can do no wrong... they've had plenty of stumbles along the way over the last decade, they were fortunate that a solid working relationship with Jerry Bruckheimer bore a lot of fruit and covered many of the companies sins until the Marvel acquisition. Also, JJ business/marketing "savvy" is a bit of a two edged sword and can actually work against a film (i.e., Star Trek Into Darkness).

Yancy

 

Who's that "those" though?

(I liked typing that sentence)

 

It is a spin off. It will do good business for the young kids yes, but its to stupid for teenagers and lacks the adult sophisticated humor references of a Pixar film. Think it will perform on pair with Ice Age, "How to Train Your Dragon" 2. With good marketing, possible higher, but the praise for the film has not been that much. Also doubt it will sell off as vintage classic on the shelf in 2035. Put it on Netflix kids section to gain some dust.

 

No I agree it's not likely to be an animated classic on par with Bambi, yet two completely forgettable Ice Age movies clock in at nearly $900 million apiece, and Despicable Me 2 nearly hit $1 billion.

Also the marketing has been creative. I don't know how effective, but Minions are truly everywhere. Brand awareness is high, goodwill toward Despicable Me is huge.

Things didn't pan out for Penguins of Madagascar, but this effort seems more competently marketed, if not a better product. If it makes $600 million worldwide then Universal has 4 of the year's top 5 movies worldwide.

And Minions will make more outside the US than Inside Out.

 

I don't think that popularity of SW can be measured by the popularity of Rebels any more than it was for that Clone Wars movie. If that were true than one could measure the popularity of the Marvel universe based on the overall success of SHIELD tv show which has been somewhat successful but certainly not the tv equivalent of the movies' successes.

 

I don't know how you "measure" something like that, but I do think there is significance in just how many people (esp kids) still watch Rebels/Clone Wars despite the fact that it has been so long since there was SW movie. Grade school aged kids were not even alive the last time there was real exposure/promotion for SW (ROTS).

 

Good points.

The only thing about that though is that I wonder if that is not more of a 'worrying about getting new "fans" 'and selling associated merch than strictly box office concerns.

The actual overall movie audience that have proven over and over and over again that the Star Wars brand is incredibly strong because of incredibly strong movies that please the audience and so they tell people to go past the first weekend.

When the lowest box office of the series AOTC still gets to 11th all-time domestic on the initial year of release (the equivalent today would be approx 440M which is only 13M off where AOU is right now and 20M more than using the adjustment factor) then there is not anything much to worry about there then throw in the international gross and you've got a billion easy then all the after release revenue streams.

The concern in that sense would be the long term sustainability and growth of the merch if the kids aren't really getting into it in the same way. That is looking at years down the road though as obviously they have sold and are selling a ton of merch and the older audience can sustain that high level for many years.

Speaking of brand awareness and strength when it comes to modern age movies I would point out that Pixar movies domestic average is 250M, MCU movies 310M, LOTR + Hobbit 268M, Fast and Furious 184M, Harry Potter 299M, Pirates 319M, Transformers 265, Spider-Man 315M , X-Men 186M with the prequels at 388M.

The only thing that beats the PT average I can find quickly is TDK with a 395M average.

So anyway you look at the numbers the PT and TDK and individually of course Avengers are the kinds of numbers want.

 

Well it only took one day and JW is grossing more than Terminator. Inside Out took Thursday followed by JW at $6.7 million, followed by Terminator and finally Magic Mike. Both Terminator and Magic Mike appear to be underperforming... Might be a battle again between JW and Inside Out for the holiday weekend.

Hopefully this terminates a very tired franchise once and for all.

 

I really don't see them pandering to the 'older' fanbase at all. They are super-focused on the new, young, and general at the expense of those that have been with the brand a long time. That's poor form but expected. I really doubt films in general will do well much longer.

 

I believe rights revert back to Cameron pretty soon here. Not that he's gonna do anything with it, as he's at least a decade deep in making Avatar sequels, and then probably another 3-4 years making Battle Angel (finally)

(Maybe)

(Probably not)

 

I realy disagree, i think Minions are much more popular than that. I see girls from ages up to 25 loving them, and by now, Minions are actualy more popular than the main Despicable Me characters, it's definitely going to be giant, i doubt it would just do How to Train Your Dragon numbers.

 

How many people get Disney XD? I know we don't, so I resort to other means to watch Rebels. A lot of people are dropping cable/satellite anyway for Netflix or Hulu or Prime.

 

Maybe. If it deliver on the comedy front, i can definitely see it go higher. Summer been so bad for comedy, and people wants to laugh, see something "not complicated". Its on 74% at Rotten Tomatoes too, not that many would care about that for a film like this, but one have to remember that the quality of animation have been raised significant over the last years, so people want some quality too. Although "Dragon 2" underperformed last year, despite having great reviews. I think Pixar has been clever with having a longer break from their last movie, up to the release of "Inside Out", with them not pushing to much into the market. Disney did this under their last chairman, now John Lasseter who green lights both Pixar and Disney Animation movies, are in charge of course, and does the business. Quality over quantity. I hope Kathleen Kennedy take notice.

What will Cameron do with the rights to Terminator after this? Good question. Nothing i guess. Can he make the Battle Angel project into a hybrid, a mash up with Terminator maybe. Or not. ha. I really don`t get Genisys. How bad is that casting too, i love Game of Thrones but Emilia Clarke is really not the strongest actress on that show, and she is NOT Linda Hamilton. I am not going to see this, but let us get some reactions in this thread if anyone have seen it, and confirm the worst exceptions about it.

 

Minions will make mid-to-upper $300 millions in the USA. Calling it now. But I'm not willing to pick feathers or leather out of my teeth quite yet. This summer's been too crazy for anything to be set in stone.

Terminator? They're calling a $30-$32 million Friday-Sunday with a $45-$48 5 day total. Possibly Tomorrowland numbers but likely a little higher. We're probably looking at a $115-$125 domestic intake with MAYBE (but doubtfully) a $130 million. Ouch!!!

 

Magic Mike should have had Chris Pratt in it. Making out with Channing Tatum.

The Terminator is a film that no one wanted a remake of. The original is still a classic.

 

Here are the weekend projections based on Friday's box office results:

1). Jurassic World (UNI), 3,737 theaters (-461)/ $11.7M Fri. (-21%)/ 3-day cume: $29.1M (-47%)/Total Cume: $556.4M / Wk 4

2). Inside Out (DIS), 4,158 theaters (+26) / $11.8M Fri. (-21%) / 3-day cume: $28.1M (-46%) /Total cume: $239.4/ Wk 3

3). Terminator: Genisys (PAR), 3,758 theaters / $10.6M Fri. / 3-day cume: $27.3M / Total cume: $42.6/ Wk 1

4). Magic Mike XXL (WB), 3,355 theaters / $6.2M Fri. / 3-day cume: $14.9M / Total cume: $29.9 /Wk 1

Terminator is officially a flop in the US... unfortunately international box office might keep the creaky old franchise alive for another round.

 

I think it will do 2 billion ww .

 

FWIW, Minions is a really poor film - reviews will reflect that. Kids will like it, but if it is a monster, that will be marketing driven. It's a bad film.

 

Minions is at 74% on RT and 63 on Metacritic, so it's currently higher than JW.

 

Weekend box office results in
Weekend + total domestic:

1. JurassicWorld $30.9M/$558.2M
2. InsideOut $30.1M/$246.2M
3. TerminatorGenisys $28.7M/$44.2M,
4. MagicMikeXXL $12M/$27.1M.

Terminator had a $ 74 mill weekend overseas, now stands at $ 129.6 mill worldwide total. China, Germany and Japan still to open. China to save the franchise then? Movie cost $ 160 mill + marketing.

96 % of the audience for Magic Mike XXL, was female.

 

I can't imagine China can save it. Schwarzenegger simply isn't a draw any more. The film would need to do about $350+ million worldwide to break even. I just don't see that happening.