ST Episode VII Box Office Discussion

If SW is only for nerds, then what is for the "cool kids'? Furious 7? Blah. Superhero movie and Dinosaur movies? Pretty much the same demographic as SW (except for Terminator and Fantastic Four which is for no one lol.)

Teen "sex" comedies have become non-existent so it's obviously not those movies.

 

I think Episode VII makes anywhere between $1.5-$1.7 Billion globally. No way it touches $2 billion. I can see it making anywhere between $400-$500 million domestically and at least $1 billion internationally.

 

I'm just reporting what the 11/12 year old tells me. He wouldn't be interested in sex comedies, but he's not very interested in movies, period.

 

I think in hindsight deadline is $100 million off - I think a $500 million worldwide opening is a reasonable assumption , I think the December "issue" should be thrown out the window - Star Wars is a different property to anything else ever released in December so a $200 million opening weekend domestic is very much on the cards - no one thought Jurassic World would come close to $200 million I think a lot of sights were predicting around $115 million so throw out the December issue think of it almost like a summer release add Star Wars & I bet you come up with $200 million + .............

 

Well there ya go! Are you trying to push SW onto your kids only to get resistance? Maybe that's the root of your allegations against SW popularity?

 

no, I'm just saying that moviegoing has never interested my kids much. It's a declining passtime among the young overall, as U.S. theater attendance trends can attest to.

 

Are they into the Beatles?

 

I think it will be interesting to see how this Friday goes for Disney. It is a clear statement that selling Star Wars toys is their number one concern and that the movies are first and foremost meant to serve that goal. The big question is whether TFA and Disney can do a better job of that part of the business than the prequels and Lucas. The marketing campaign is ambitious. But at the end of the day, Star Wars is going to need a new movie that kids like if they're going to keep selling toys.

 

No it's not, it's just a big launch for the toys. There's absolutely nothing to suggest that having a big launch for toys means that selling toys takes precedence over quality of the movies. The two aims can be mutual, not of detriment to each other.

 

My local Toys R Us has signs at the front window about Force Friday. However, it only says "STAR WARS Force Friday September 4 at 12:01 am". There's absolutely nothing at all about TFA. While there will certainly be TFA merchandise, they aren't really promoting it as solely a TFA event. It's a SW event and the new TFA stuff will be fully integrated, even if most people aren't aware of who the characters actually are.

The event is to push the brand that now includes TFA and not really to just push the movie. That being said, they are really going to have to get on the ball soon. Unlike summer movies, December movies have to compete (as you've said) with Christmas. Burn-out is not a problem this time of year. People are more likely to be burned out from school, work and soon the holidays much more over any movie.

 

from the point of view of toy licensing, it's smart. Since adult collector types are the ones who are going to be paying the most attention this Friday, you can also bet that Disney's primary timing concern is marketing to adults who will also be buying holiday gifts for children. It's a lead in to the christmas shopping season, and they want the brand to be front and center. You can bet your life there aren't any children paying attention at this Friday's event. It's all about marketing to adults.

 

Yes, that is the real story. Kids these days are so overwhelmed with Beatlemania, they don't even know SW exists.

 

That I do agree with.

 

That does make a bit of sense. You're not getting kids to show up at midnight during the first or second week of school. So it makes sense that this midnight event serves for those who are collectors. Like I said several times, this is not actually a TFA event. It's a SW brand event and a collector's event. Get the brand back on the radar and integrate TFA stuff with it.

That being said, the true marketing for the movie cannot be too far behind. We had major marketing in April and then a lull. We had the BTS video which faded quickly and was mostly for the die hards since the average person doesn't really care about the practical effects. It's too technical. D23 was pretty much a bust and that's when EVERYONE thought there would be a major push. FF is turning into more of a generalized event and not a major marketing event for TFA. I suspect they want this FF to come and get its feet on the ground, have people see new TFA stuff and say "wow" or "hmmm I wonder what that is" and then sometime around mid to late September BOOM the floodgates open as we suspected they would.

 

China's January 29 2016 release date cannot be good news for its box office potential there. That's a more than 1 month long invitation to piracy. Furious 7 opened in China only 9 days after its U.S. release, and Jurassic World opened about the same time. Perhaps Disney did not feel pushing for an earlier release date was worth the effort in China.

In any case, Kung Fu Panda 3 and TFA are set to open the same day in China.

It will be interesting to see how MI Rogue Nation does in China when it opens there in the second week of September. Ant-Man opens there 9/18 and Minions opens there Nov. 25 a week after the Hunger Games.

 

When you are already part of a pop culture phenomenon you can't start yet another one because it already exists. It becomes part of that which established it in the first place.

You don't need "many new kids" you only need a relatively small portion of them to generate huge sales.

 

The bottom line is that marketing will help to sell the movie. The name is strong in everyone, but not as strong as it once was in terms of movies. So the brand itself cannot push the movie's success over the edge. Smart, consistent, and strategic marketing will make all the difference. You want people to say "wow, that looks really cool" rather than only saying "wow, it's a new Star Wars movie". This weekend will be a major indicator of where the marketing for the movie stands.

 

Why can't can't TFA be the highest grossing film of all time??? I don't get why people say Titanic and Avatar can't be touched.

 

Since we are all guessing I will throw mine in:

Worst case scenario 1.1 B
Best case scenario 1.7 B

I think it will open at around 400-500 million. It may not break JW's opening weekend record, but I think it could have longer legs than JW. I think Christmas releases tend to spread their box office earnings over a longer period of time in contrast to summer blockbusters tend to be more front loaded.

Maybe my mind will change when the marketing machine really gets churning after this Friday.

 

As I've said many times, mostly because people make assumptions based on a sample size of 2. Those movies sold because ___, SW can't do that because SW isn't ___. We can't really assume that ____ is the reason based on 2.

I'm sure when those movies first came out people would have had (perceived) rock-solid reasons why they wouldn't be able to sell like they did. Any given movie would not be hugely likely to exceed or equal those, but SW has as good a chance as any given movie, especially if it is a great movie.

 

At the end of the day, the public's taste is fickle. What was trendy in the 70s and 80s may not have much of a pop culture foothold today. What 40 and 50 year old men loved may or may not find an audience with 12-18 year olds.

Unless of course you're Paul McCartney: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessela...ckets-averaging-over-400-on-secondary-market/


on a more serious note: that January 29 2016 release date for TFA speaks volumes about the box office potential in China.

 

Star Wars is a blockbuster first and foremost, and for that reason many people will see it regardless of if they like SW. I'm a nerd at heart but the car and football forums I'm a member of also have their own SW threads which are gaining quite a bit of momentum. The trailers definitely went down a treat and as you can see by the first one which hit 100M views in like 2 days, SW is still relevant and big.

Will it be the biggest ever? Probably not but I don't think that is indicative of the movie, but more of the time it was released.

 

the movie is probably ok. No spoiler has yet given any indication that it is more or less than your typical big budget movie. Paper thin plot, not much that is out of character for Star Wars. It's old hat and familiar to most audiences.

So, really not much to offer beyond nostalgia and the aura of participating in a big movie that is going to be sold as the most anticipated movie of the year. That's enough to give it the biggest December opening weekend ever and large family crowds over the christmas weekend.

after that it will likely erode quickly. It will get a small foreign boost when it opens in China in late January, but by then the anticipatory excitement will be long over and the Chinese will care even less about Star Wars than they already do.

 

Just a notice on the China release of TFA. Nothing confirmed about a release date yet. I logged on to my IMDB Pro account and could not even find any article about it.

Terminator Genisys are close to reaching $ 100 mill in China as we speak, released almost 2 months after the worldwide release and will pass $ 400 mill easily now in total. Confirming there is no huge problems with piracy as both IMAX and 3D experience also adding to an event feel.

Also. Chinese New Year is february 8th 2016, which is huge period for people to go to the cinema. If this stands as a release date, it is a very, very wise move by Disney.

 

I don't think it's going to work that way. The best performing movies of 2015 in China like JW ($228 million), F7 ($391 million) and Avengers ($240), had opening dates within 2 weeks of the US release. Hobbit, Battle of the Five Armies opened in the late January spot and was the 8th best performing movie of the year at $121 million.

In terms of the box office performance of Battle of the Five Armies at that Chinese New Year slot, Skyfall only made $60 million in China. The first Monkey King did well in that slot.

Conversely, Taking of Tiger Mountain and Personal Tailor made more than $100 million with late December releases. It seems to me there's no strategic gain from opening a week ahead of the New Year. I don't see much evidence of box office benefit for a late January release. It looks like it's all downside for Disney.

I expect Star Wars to do much worse than the Hobbit in China, since it has less brand awareness and not much of a hook for the Chinese in terms of novelty for 3D specific spectacle. Maybe $100 million at best.

Star Wars is an unknown brand, is not built for 3D, has no recognizable international bankable stars. It won't be that inviting for the premium IMAX and 3D screens that the Chinese love. Add to that the devaluation of the Chinese currency and the economic slowdown.

Q: What do you get when you cross Age of Ultron's domestic gross with the Minions' foreign gross in a mid December release?

A: The Force Awakens.