ST Episode VII Box Office Discussion

"If you're not chomping at the bit to see Star Wars, we can't be friends." lol

But here's the kicker. "The average American goes to three or four movies a year."

That's the question. If you're going out to the movies 4 times in 2015, will Star Wars be one of those movies?

Honestly, I think so. If you're an American. Star Wars is going to be one of those movies.

Not so the rest of the world.

 

You may be right for other countries but in the UK, Star Wars is still massive. Hence Star Wars channel on the weekends, toys selling out etc.


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Save the money for China marketing.

There is a new Peter Pan film coming up very soon. Marketing here in Europe is practically non existent. They have, in Hugh Jackman, someone who is a big star overseas. Doesn`t help. This Pan version will flop. Nobody knows about it. And nobody cares. But maybe Warner Bros gave up marketing it when they saw how bad the movie was.

Seriousy. Looking at some of the trailers coming out these days, you start wondering if you really want to see the movie they promotes. They are almost cut like a mini movie, with its own narrative, and gives away to much. Please no Zach Snyder glossy darkness with distortion dubstep soundtrack. For TFA i might want to see some crazy promo shots, lasting maybe 30 seconds each, bombarding the internet and tv channels, each of them presenting the main characters of TFA, without telling to much context.

 

Our thirteen year old princess's bed.

Star Wars is very much known and yes loved by many kids. All of them? Of course not. As many as it's hey day? No. But it's still very big. Is it because her dad is a massive Star Wars fan? Of course it helps. But as any parent knows, getting a child to like what you like isn't a given. Our eldest is a massive Arsenal fan despite me being a massive Manchester United fan. Which means in a few hours time one of us will very likely be avoiding the other.

I think TFA if it is even remotely near the quality of the OT will captivate a lot of youngsters and inspire like it did so many of us lo those many years ago.


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I think Battlefront may be an interesting variable in terms of the teen market. Regardless of the game's quality, if you get YouTubers mentioning TFA in Let's Play... videos it could help generate awareness and anticipation among that group.

 

What it comes down to is that the box office success of TFA is impossible to predict as is all movies. Nobody would have guessed that AOU would make $170 less than the first Avengers and NOBODY could ever have predicted JW's numbers. Those two movies alone make it impossible to predict where between $350 million and $550 million TFA would fall. I suppose it will somewhere in that HUGE range.

 

estimated $55 million opening weekend for The Martian. Just shy of Gravity. To be honest, The Martian wasn't quite the large format 3D visual spectacle of Gravity, although it's a better story, excellently told. Seeing Gravity in IMAX 3D is something I'll never forget. But The Martian is still excellent. The best sci fi movie of 2015. The second best movie ever made about manned exploration of our solar system.

 

Just curious. Would people be shocked if TFA made less than $400 million domestically? I'm not saying it will of course-nobody can predict anything. I'm just posing that hypothetically. What would be the general reaction if it did?

 

I honestly wouldn't care as long as I enjoyed the film.

But for it to get less it would have to have seriously bad word of mouth. And even then I can't see it getting less than 400. But like I said if I enjoyed it I couldn't care less.


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Attack of the Clones adjusts to about $450 million domestic. This was, objectively speaking, probably the worst Star Wars movie and suffered as well from some TPM backlash. And yet it made $302 million in the U.S. in 2002 and was the third highest grossing movie of the year in the U.S.

To be the third most successful movie of 2015 in the U.S., TFA needs about $360 million, assuming SPECTRE and Mockingjay 2 don't do better than Inside Out. But if as Piedmont Media suggests the movie has about the same level of anticipation as Age of Ultron, which hit $450 million domestic, than adjusted Attack of the Clone numbers seem realistic.

I would adjust that down a bit for the challenges of a December holiday opening, because TFA has a snowball's chance in hell of reaching the opening weekend numbers of Age of Ultron.

 

I thought AOTC's adjusted would be about $420-$425 million? ($ 300 million without 3D re-release; $5.81 2002 ticket prices adjusted to around $8.20 ticket prices for 2015).

Have ticket prices gone up that much? TFA has to top $450 to beat the adjusted gross of AOTC??? Wow!

For me it's like rooting for the home team. People get WAY more obsessed over their favorite sports team. I'd like to see TFA finish better than Age of Ultron. I just don't know......

 

I don't think it matters much. The general argument is that $400-450 million would make TFA most comparable to Attack of the Clones. $500-$600 million would put it at about the level of Revenge of the Sith or a little better. But if Star Wars is going to be truly epic at the box office, on par with the OT and TPM, it needs to make more than $700 million in the U.S. alone.

 

That is insane numbers. It really does put the monumental success of the OT and TPM into perspective.


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Dude. Family-friendly forum.

 

delete

 

You quoted me yet your post had nothing to do at all with mine.

 

I liked the Martian a lot. Very enjoyable. But Gravity's a far deeper (and better) film, IMO. The latter is a meditation on life, death, the barren void vs. the life-giving earth, and humanization vs. dehumanization. The former is about...man's capacity to endure.

Both explore worthwhile themes, but the Martian is more of a straight-up action film, with some good humor, and an exploration message tacked on. I feel it could have lingered a little more on Damon's loneliness, and the cold dark of the alien Martian landscape.

This comes down to Cuaron being a better filmmaker than Scott, IMO.

jedijax

Fixed it. Apologies. Meant to quote Jabbadabbadoo.

 

"Kids, this is what can happen to people that get too obsessed with movies."

 

Though I think "implied suicide" is the issue here. For many, it's just not a humorous topic.

 

Nothing objective about calling it the 'worst' Star Wars movie. That is purely subjective.

What is objective is at 311M on first year gross (third for the year domestic) and 4th overall worldwide it objectively is the least successful Star Wars movie at the box office so far. All the others were first domestically by a wide, wide margin.

What 'backlash' from TPM is supposed to mean I never will understand. Why didn't that backlash hurt TPM itself?

Once again that is like saying the backlash of ANH really "hurt" TESB. If only the audience had thought ANH was a better movie then it would have made more money and carried over better to the other movies!

Here is what they are hoping for to drive over multiple weekends of the 18th and 25th as you often talk about:

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/Ne... Default/mid/1508/ArticleId/1535/Default.aspx

The force is still strong with Star Wars in the #2 spot; Titanic rises from the depths to #3
New York , N.Y. - December 17, 2014 - It may have premiered 75 years ago, but it would appear that Wind has still got legs: when asked to name their favorite movie of all time, the septuagenarian Civil War epic Gone with the Wind is Americans' top pick again (the film was also America's favorite movie in 2008).
With six movies in the can and a much-discussed trailer now making the rounds for Episode Seven, Star Wars soars into the same runner up position it held in 2008. Meanwhile, Titanic is doing anything but sinking; after not making the top 10 in 2008, the 1997 love story may not quite be king of the world this time around - but surely rounding out the top three is none too shabby.


For Star Wars top group is men. Overall Ages 39-49 (Gen-X) Star Wars is first, for BB's 50-68 Star Wars is second and for Millennials 18-37 it's third.

 

Harris Interactive is very good at their job. I've hired them before. It's interesting to me how well that list lines up with the adjusted-for-inflation box office list (for those with the misguided belief that those adjusted numbers don't mean anything).

However, the question is worded oddly. "What's your favorite movie of all time?" But the question includes a number of franchises, including Godfather, Star Wars, Lord of the Rings. It's likely that people are referring to the first and, except for Lord of the Rings, most successful movie of its respective franchise, and it's also fairly certain that few if any people like all films in a franchise equally. Fellowship of the Rings was in my opinion the best of the LOTR movies, though many disagree. For Star Wars, it's possible that it breaks down differently depending on which age group you ask.

 

Agree completely about FotR. By far, for me, the best of the LotR movies. Expertly paced.

But it is interesting to see Star Wars number 3 in the 18-39 range. That's a strong showing for a franchise where it's last movie was a decade ago.


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I love to speak with the guys who put Titanic number three on their favorite movie of all-time list. Seriously really?

Pan is getting trashed. And considering it's tracking very soft leading up to it's opening, I think it's safe to say we got another a huge dud coming. And keep in mind it's budget was actually BIGGER then Fantastic Four. It better hope it finds an audience with families or WB is going to have a big fat red stain for it's third quarter.

 

Die hard Star Wars fans are consistently the only people on the planet who seem bewildered by the enduring popularity of Titanic.

But really, who thought that making another Peter Pan movie was a good idea? A hit stage musical, a Disney cartoon semi-classic with racist undertones and a hilariously awful live TV broadcast is all this thing really needed.