ST Episode VII Box Office Discussion

No, you didn't. You make completely absurd connections that simply do not exist.
You say that two movies are comparable even though one will likely top the others opening weekend through presales alone. The start date is completely irrelevant when it comes to the behaviour of a movie. The whole thought process is completely absurd. The numbers you quote yourself already are definitive proof that the movies are nothing alike. There is a very simple connection, with I explained in very simple terms. You completely ignore the circumstances of the movies, yet define the same starting date as enough of a reason to apply the same behaviour to two movies, that makes no sense at all. There is no connection between the two, they are two completely seperate events. You can only judge them by what they actually do, and what they have done so far is quite clearly not the same.

As I have mentioned way too often by now, a movie that has a huge rush-factor will always behave differently than a movie that doesn't have such a rush factor. You cannot apply the terms of a movie that clearly didn't see people rush out to see it opening weekend (Avatar) to a movie that very obviously has people go insane to see it as soon as possible. The general audience of a movie does not rely on people seeing it again and again, those only make up a tiny amount of the money made. Movies like Avatar rely on the fact that people didn't go on opening weekend. This allows them to keep steady. You cannot accomplish that when there is a huge rush on opening weekend, as the very reason people go and see the movie on the second weekend (they didn't rush out) doesn't apply here. The second weekend of a rush out movie is very likely higher than the one of a movie without the rush factor, but the beahviour between the first and second weekend are completely different. One stays flat, because it wasn't quite high to begin with, the other won't stay flat, because the people who could make it stay flat already went out (= the rush factor). This increases the opening weekend and makes the drop (in percentages) higher than the one of a movie that didn't have everyone rush out. That's basic statistics.
These things are fundamental opposites. And that has nothing to do with "a movie coming along that completely breaks the mold". Even those movies behave in a certain way. If you don't realise that a movie without a pre-build fanbase does not behave like a movie with a pre-build fanbase, then there is little reason to argue any further.

Your entire argument boils down to "I compare TFA's behaviour to that of Avatar because they start at the same date". There is no logic behind that. Not a single reason as to why it should behave that way. Plenty of other movies have started at the same date, a few of which whose circumstances are a whole lot closer to TFA's than Avatar's are. None of those had the potential of TFA, but just because TFA might make a similar amount of money as Avatar doesn't mean it will behave similarly.
You might as well compare the shape of an apple to the Nazi's rise to power. Sure, you can do that, but there is absolutely no reason for why that is supposed to be a good approach.

For someone who is oh so big on stats, you sure don't even recognize rather fundamental basics.

And no, lying about what other people have written (see your: "which is better than declaring a bunch of edicts based on the belief that existing records are invulnerable.", which is quite clearly nothing that appears anywhere in my post, on the contrary) doesn't make a good argument.

Wow, you surely are very full of yourself. Amazing for a person who has proven that he has little knowledge about the box office. Lets see, you were completely of the rocker when it came to judging the success of re-releases, seeing how you declared the biggest re-release of alltime to have delivered a disappointing result, suggesting that movies should make as much in their re-release as in their original run. When informed about that you freaked out completely.
You then proceeded to completely ignore the circumstances involving opening weekend records, by directly comparing the weekend of a movie that started on a Wednesday to a movie that started on a Friday (on a holiday weekend to boot). You lacked complete knowledge about what the opening day of TPM actually meant, and then went on to know even less about what a huge thing the start of Jurassic Park 2 actually was.

To top this all off, you indirectly suggested that the entire movie-industry lied so it could badmouth itself in front of a bunch of people for absolutely no good reason whatsoever. Completely ignoring that the industry would obviously have no reason to make itself appear worse than it actually is in front of people who a) they try to impress and b) have the knowledge to judge whether what they are told is true. Not to mention that you didn't even realise that the points about tracking that were being made actually went both ways, meaning that some of the factors actually have a positive impact (see Pitch Perfect 2, which was drastically underestimated due to unaided awareness).

Excuse me if I don't take someone who acts so high and mighty while showing so little actual knowledge particularly seriously. Especially when he appears to be incapable of comprehending arguments that other people make, instead completely misrepresenting what they have said.

There's little need to answer to the rest of the drivel, as it is quite obvious you didn't understand what I actually wrote. Because if you had understood what I have written, you actually would have realised that I did not - at any point - say that the movie had to run either like a summer-movie or like Avatar.

If you actually had followed what other people write, you would have noticed that I have "clashed" multiple times with those who held the view that TFA couldn't achieve certain things because it starts in winter or for other reasons. In fact, I made it explicidly clear that there is pretty much nothing you can base TFA's behaviour on, because no movie of this kind has ever started in this particular spot.

But keep going, it's always nice to have people who pull things out of a hat without any rhyme or reason, ignore arguments, show ignorance and throw around insults at anyone who dares to hold a different view.

 

Your "educated guesses" suggest that as much as 60% of the seats available for this movie will be empty for four days.

 

How was JW a once in a decade storm, when Avatar is only 6 years old?

The December record is $84m for an opening weekend I believe. TFA will shatter that. That doesn't suddenly mean it will break the Avatar or JW marks.

 

Avatar came out in 2009. Jurassic World came out in 2015. Titanic came out in 1997.

And I agree. I think TFA will double that opening December mark but will not go near Avatar or JW. $500 million domestic just feels right to me and would be absolute massive movie. Think about how many movies it would have beaten recently including Avengers 2, The Dark Knight Rises, Harry Potter 8 etc.

 

Umm.

The word "misrepresentation" comes to mind here, and perhaps you are confusing me with someone else.

If you are going to making these asinine claims about me you should at least back them up with some evidence. And please make sure that you produce convincing evidence and not something you misread or misunderstand yourself.

I'm scratching my head here in response to this. How exactly have I acted "high and mighty"? And for the record, all the necessary information I need to make my argument stick has been presented. It's not my fault that you can't comprehend a truly simplistic argument.

That's right. I said that. You just didn't understand.

Then since you agree with me you must be equally ignorant of the facts as you suggest and I am free to berate you for being high and mighty.

You seem a bit hurt by something I said.

Perhaps you shouldn't take it to heart so much eh?

 

It's nice to see Disney executives making the same argument that some JC members have been rejecting for nearly a year.

 

And the Avengers came out in 2012.

I personally think it will get to at least $600m and have little doubt about it. Same for most of the film studios. They have run away from TFA, and they seem to know what they are doing. If TFA does $170m opening weekend, winter multiplies indicate it has a rather easy shot at $600m domestically.

 

Maybe some of them are posting here.

 

As Forbes's Scott Mendelsohn pointed out, only one major film opening in recent history in December has failed to hit a 3.5 multiple and many closer to 4. So any assumptions of less than 3.5 are based on pretty faulty reasoning given that there's a MAJOR reason that December openings like this have better legs - the weekdays are all holidays for two weeks and there are literally two major holidays for working people on weekends 2 and 3. A multiplier less than 3.5 is simply unrealistic for a film opening at this time, so yes, it is relevant. It's relevant in the same way that people insist it's relevant that it's December and not May / June.

If the movie opens to $210 million a normal December multiple puts it extremely close to beating Avatar if not over, depending on whether it's closer to 3.5 or 4.0. Avatar isn't some crazy thing that can't ever be defeated by the way. It's just a box office gross and if TFA draws more interest and excitement from moviegoers, then it wins. That seems about 50-50 at this point but certainly a high likelihood.

To say that Avatar is unassailable is to ignore the facts.

 

Those execs know very well that if there are a dozen articles saying "OMG Star Wars will break the all time record" and doesn't, it sets itself up for disappointment. The argument I had made for quite a while is that the impact of Christmas shopping and commitments will prevent TFA from getting the all time OW record but won't keep it down so far as to make less than $140 or even $150 million. In summer time release, I think the record opening would be a given right now. I'm sure though that the execs like Horn, Iger, Kennedy, Abrams, etc feel deep down inside that there's a chance it does come close to that record and it would be amazing if it does. They do have to offset the crazy reports which, right now, are premature.

Both Titanic and Avatar were new and were novelties. Whatever breaks those two records will also have to be new and a novelty in my opinion.

Forceuser-there's no doubt you understand statistics. However, so do many of us and can also use logical statistics to support the errors in your analysis. What you have never taken into consideration in any of your posts is the human factors in all of this. You only post numbers and nothing about human behavior.

 

On the contrary. My entire purpose of posting here is expose one particular aspect of human behavior by presenting things in their most comprehensive form.

The truth of the matter is - there is absolutely no reason why this movie should not break the records predicted. None whatsoever. The numbers are there for anyone to play with. Everything is straightforward, uncomplicated and fair. Simple multiplication is all it takes to come up with a reasonable OW prediction.

The fact that people are hurt by this statement is mind boggling.

I offer a thousand apologies to anyone who feels offended by my comments, but the predictions I made are fair and I fully expect them to come to pass. That's why I made them. So let's just wait and see.

 

What is the opening weekend record for December again?

 

There is a human element to it all, but I don't agree that a film has to have some gimmicky novel feel to win the box office. Why assume that? What's #1 in the UK anyone know? Real fast? Yup that's right it's SKYFALL - the 23rd James Bond film. And no I don't think the UK is some different planet. They are English speaking people too (hear they may have invented the language but those are rumors) and moviegoers absolutely can support a beloved franchise all the way to the top.

By the way I'm getting this out there now so I can claim ownership of the term later. So this is the ST as we know, and after this is Episodes 10-12, which I am already calling 4T for short before anyone else can come up with a name for them. I reject SST on the grounds that it leads to ridiculousness in the future (SSST), whereas my system continues like 5T for the future

 

As a regular reader but not-often poster in this thread, I thought I'd post my stance on all this.

I personally think it's time to start putting personal opinion/philosophy to one side and start concentrating on facts/numbers - as has been correctly pointed out already, there is no solid basis whatsoever to believe that TFA "cannot" do this and "cannot" do that. Theoretically, of course it can (this is Star Wars! Keep an open mind), and as we get closer and data starts to come in, it is abundantly clear that it "can" and more of a question of whether it "will".

The data we do have (tracking, pre-sales and competition) is rather astonishing, and entirely positive. The data is fairly unprecedented and suggests that the sky is the limit. And I think all the theorising about winter vs. summer, original vs. franchise and the effects of critical reception is rapidly becoming largely irrelevant.

I believe in the numbers for this one - and at this point, there seems to be very little doubt at all that TFA is going to be an enormous hit and a serious contender for the domestic Top 3 (and therefore winner of 2015). Questioning that right now is not really backed up by anything but unfair comparisons (no other film as big or anticipated as this has ever opened in December - very few films as anticipated as TFA have ever been released, full stop! - and it's time to forget about other films in that respect), undue pessimism (do we have any reason to believe it won't be well-received and therefore hold well?), anecdotal evidence that may well prove helpful but shouldn't be considered right now, and guess work.

Of course, when we get even closer, and after the film has had its opening weekend, we will have initial numbers as well as a firm picture of what the reception is. And then of course, a lot of people may well be proved right about the film not being the world-smasher it currently appears to be, but at this point, I just don't see why so many in this thread are so skeptical of some seriously exciting data that constitutes some very strong evidence indeed.

This isn't meant to get at anyone - I just think that the hypothetical debate side of things should take a back seat as solid predictions and data start to come in. Things like the December opening, despite what Alan Horn said, are clearly not going to be as much of an issue as some thought - the opening is going to be very, very big. Where we go from there... who knows? But I don't think we should ignore the mounting evidence that things are going to go very well.

 

I'm trying to apply KISS principle here, simply using adjusted gross as a guide, and comparing with films released over the past 15 years or so.

For TFA to "finish at right around $500M" domestically puts it in the same category as films like ROTS, The Two Towers, The Dark Knight Rises,The Sixth Sense, and Spiderman 2.

Does that sound right to anyone?

I mean, I understand it's not scientific but I really have a problem accepting that. I look at a film like The Dark Knight, and remember all the hype around it. That thing sits at $620M adjusted. I still feel the hype around TFA is greater than what was surrounding TDK, but it's much closer than any of those other films mentioned above.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest sits at $539M adjusted. I'm supposed to believe that TFA won't perform better than that thing? It's kind of a joke when you think about it.

For TFA to make under $600M it's going to have to be a critical flop IMO.

 

And this is my point - theoretically, that could happen. But theoretically, it could do $800m. I agree that the current numbers dictate that for TFA to get under $600m it would have to be fairly poorly received and to go under $500m with all this hype it would have to be a real dog of a movie.

And that could happen, but do we have any real basis on which to believe that's likely to happen? The trailers have been very well received, there's been so many enthusiastic comments from those who've worked on it (notably Harrison, who doesn't often get behind a film so unequivocally and whose judgement I trust), and I think we'd all agree that it's a pretty easy sell to be honest - how hard can it be to make a film that's okay at the very least, with all the elements they have? And I see no evidence that they haven't delivered a good film. I'm not entirely convinced they've delivered a brilliant or exceptional one, I'm trying to keep my expectations in check about that, but I think with 3 weeks to go there would be at least some sign out there, some voice of dissent, if this were a bad film.

And all that considered, and taking the numbers seriously, there really isn't any other conclusion I can draw right now but that it will be a monster hit.

 

This argument came from the poster who predicted TFA to open with about $ 90 mil in this thread. Even you, moved, to a position where we could discuss in realistic terms. And now the thread is a "fight" about numbers.

So people are traveling, shopping, eating, and ******, in the weekend before christmas? No way.


Alan Horn came out with this after presales and tracking are through the roof. Its mediaplay.

 

Yes, I fully believe that Horn is willfully underestimating the opening so that the film can "surpass expectations" which is the oldest trick in the book. Disney will have far more extensive and accurate data)predictions than us, they know the score. No one in the BO community has any real doubt about a huge opening, so why on earth would Horn have doubts when he's even more in the know?

 

My forecast: If TFA can pull a DoubleHobbit, stick the landing, and get at least an 8.5 for Technical Difficulty it will be the highest grossing film of all time...provided the Chinese judge gives at least a 7.5 for Artistic Merit in January.

 

Crazy talk

 

Yeah, and I think Alan Horn's full of ****, too

Edit to add: what I mean is, what he's saying is true, as far as it goes. The question is whether or not that applies in the case of TFA, or if it's unique and all that goes out the window. My money's on the latter.

 

What frustrates me the most is people keep comparing Star Wars to other movies and completely ignore what other STAR WARS MOVIES have done.
If you want to estimate the box office success for The Force Awakens, you look at the box office of the other Star Wars movies.
I've already made a long detailed post that everyone seems to have just ignored and showed how many tickets these movies sell, it's on page 273
Why don't people actually read it?

 

this is why I think the best comparison is TPM. Adjusted TPM made around what 700 million, many people liked the movie when it came out, but it did not have incredible WoM at the time of release.

So far the SW trilogies have followed the pattern, 1st movie biggest by wide margin, 2nd much lower, 3rd up a bit from 2nd, but no where near 1st.

If people like TFA it should make around 650 - 700 million (TPM performance). If people LOVE TFA it should pass Avatar(A New Hope Performance).

 

Star Wars is so huge that my oldest son is aware of the hype. He and I had the box office argument in the car on the way home from his dorm. He thinks I'm crazy to argue that TFA won't make the all time opening weekend record. He wants all of you to know that he knows that you're right.

 

Goood!
And Jabba, for the love of God, do not let him read through this thread.