ST Episode VII Box Office Discussion

As I've explained ad nauseam the is no way at all that Star Wars makes $135 million dollars opening weekend... it's simply not happening.

Weekend box office for the weekend before Christmas:

2014: $135 million all films combined ($126 million for the Top 12)
2013: $143 million all films combined ($137 million for the Top 12)
2012: $136 million all films combined ($129 million for the Top 12)
2011: $118 million all films combined ($110 million for the Top 12)
2010: $134 million all films combined ($127 million for the Top 12)
2009: $137 million all films combined ($129 million for the Top 12) This was the weekend Avatar opened.
2008: $88 million all films combined ($80 million for the Top 12)
2007: $160 million all films combined ($151 million for the Top 12) A weekend with exceptional holdovers for Thanksgiving releases. I Am Legend led the weekend with 77 million
2006: $120 million all films combined ($110 million for the Top 12)
2005: $129 million all films combined ($122 million for the Top 12)
2004: $107 million all films combined ($99 million for the Top 12)
2003: $141 million all films combined ($133 million for the Top 12)

There are not enough dollars available that weekend because people are doing more important things like... getting ready for Christmas, traveling to visit family, etc.

All time opening weekends in December:

1. The Hobbit - $84 million
2. I Am Legend - $77.2 million
3. Avatar - $77 million
4. The Hobbit Desolation of Smaug - $73 million
5. Lord of the Rings Return of the King - $72 million

Notice something they all have in common? The Top 5 all opened the weekend before Christmas. The best Star Wars can hope for is maybe $105 million... and that's a huge maybe. I think a $90 million to $95 million opening is far more realistic. Has nothing to do with anticipation... it's an availability issue... there are simply fewer people available that weekend to watch the film.

Yancy

 

With you and Jabba saying it will probably not break even $100 million in its opening weekend and fall short of $200 million in its first 10 days it's pretty fair to say it won't do much better than $350 million overall (based off of your numbers).

TFA won't have Titanic or Avatar numbers or longevity. I think we can all agree on that. And ROTK made a whopping $124 million in its first five days, being released on a Wednesday. So, based on your numbers it won't even come close to that either.

So....let's break down the numbers based on an opening 3-day weekend of $95 million, considering that everything else will be substantially shifted downward:

1st: $95 million
2nd: $60 million (a generous $40 million weekday)=$195 million
3rd: $35 million ($40 during the week)=$270 million
4th: $20 million (less than 50% drop with slightly more than 50% during the week)=$302 million
Then 40-50% drops with half the weekend totals during the week because kiddos are back at school

Total: approximately $350 million

2005 adjusted: $275 million
2002 adjusted: $250 million
1999 adjusted: $218 million

Is that really the fate you predict for TFA.

 

I think it could have really small declines second weekend if it's good.

 

No, if it's a good film it will hold well. Christmas weekend will be pretty big... maybe huge actually with the 25th falling on a Friday.... the last time that happened was 2009. That weekend all films combined raked in $270 million (Top 12 did $259 million in business). That weekend Avatar brought in $75 million dropping only 1.8% from the week before, meanwhile Sherlock Holmes opened to $62 million. There's actually a real strong possibility Star Wars and MI:5 perform almost identically. Star Wars could theoretically nearly duplicate its opening weekend if reviews are solid and would be sitting slightly over $200 million by the close of the Christmas weekend.

Following Christmas TFA will certainly take a hit, but I suspect it will finish its run in the neighborhood of $390-410ish. That would still make it the highest grossing December release of all time not named Titanic or Avatar.

 

I accounted for a pretty small drop in the first couple of weekends. The second weekend is Christmas itself. I'm simply saying that the movie will not have the consistency of Avatar and Titanic but will certainly have a HUGE holiday time that will be substantially higher than $200 million by the time Christmas is over and substantially higher than $300 million by the time 2015 comes around. But that's with an opening substantially higher than $100 million.

ROTK's adjusted Friday-Sunday opening would be $97 million and the 5-day total would be $167 million. I am not saying TFA will make $167 million. But it's not going to make the same as the adjusted ROTK Fri-Sat totals. It's going to be quite a bit higher than that.

So let's average the two and we have $132 million. Nice, fair compromise? For a highly anticipated return of the OT3 in a new trilogy from the most popular movie franchise of all time? I'd say that's more than a fair compromise.

If the movie makes less than $100 million in its opening, the tabloids are going to be all over that saying it was a failure and somewhat of a bomb. And casuals will eat that up like blind sheep always do.

$80 million opening? The movie will end up with a domestic total of $330 million. Even a floating hand in space couldn't do that kind of damage (or maybe it could?). And the damage control Disney will have to do? Yikes!

 

Eh, if it has a domestic total of 300ish and doubles-that overseas it'd be around 900 million off of one movie, I don't think anyone is gonna really be complaining and have to spin that.

 

I think you are selling ESB and RotJ a bit short. From the data I've found they were the first and second times that sequels were no 1 at the BO for their respective years, 1980 and 1983. Prior to that and for several years after that, no sequel was no 1 for the year. It would take until 1991 when T2 was no 1 for the year. Back in the 70's and early 80's, sequels never did as well as the original film. Even a highly praised one like The Godfather part II made less than half at the BO.

As for AotC and RotS. If AotC had been released one year earlier or later and made the same amount of money, it would still have been no 3 at the domestic BO. With RotS, if that had been released one year earlier or later, it wouldn't have been no1 at domestic BO. In 2004 Shrek 2 would have beaten it and in 2006, Dead Man's chest would have beaten it.
TPM however would have been no 1 even if moved to other years. Unadjusted, it would only loose if moved forward to to 2008 and the Dark Knight. This is domestic of course. World Wide it is a different story.

So TPM did spectacular, AotC did good and RotS very good.

[/QUOTE]

About HP 7, part 2, it made more money yes but it had 3D plus inflation. If we adjust then the first film wins by a considerable margin.
The HP series showed quite a consistent audience and didn't have huge drops. There was a drop from the first and then a bit from the second, then up a bit and then quite stable.
Adjusted all, except the first film, lie between 289 M$ to 388 M$.

Bye for now.
Blacboard Monitor

 

I remember when TPM opened, and the media analyst actually were saying the $ 105 mill 5 day opening was somewhat a disappointment. And then the bad reviews started coming in.....but it had incredible legs, mostly because kids made up repeat viewings of it. And looking at the adjusted tally, its up there against the giants of Jim Cameron, for sure. If TFA opens to $ 90, 100 mill, even though its not a summer opening, rather a testing december slot, it will NOT recoup that through having those "legs", its simply not the age where blockbuster films have long term existence. If the box office cum stands at about 200 by january 1st, i can honestly not see how it will get to even 350 mill by the end of its run. Disney, of course, loooves money, boy they do. I am pretty sure they have targeted a marketing plan to get rid of this "slow mid december" syndrome. This year, everybody knew there was another Hobbit film coming up, its a financial success, especially overseas, but nobody saw it like a new, fresh, not to miss event. This, Disney will target. You guys honestly believe they will stand to loose out on $ 150, to $ 200 mill ( maximum though) in box office money, by launching it in december? Its correct that there are only as much money as there are available audience for that weekend, but as i have said before, Star Wars is a different event movie than those who are referenced to.

We also focus a lot now on the domestic box office. I should try get some details about the overseas market, numbers, because there is a different attitude towards going to the cinema the weekend before christmas, especially in Europe, where i live. Here, in Berlin, everybody wanted to go see Hobbit 3, on its first weekend/ week, and it clearly shows. Germany as its biggest market, after USA, though big asian markets still to come. People bring their friends and family to the cinema in that period, rather than over the christmas days, then people are much more "home oriented". Is it possible that the last Hobbit film will end up with a 20/80 % in favor of overseas box office? That says a lot.

One thing i do agree on though, we will see huge numbers for the second weekend domestic too, much higher than whats normal.

Studios now have access to tools where they can almost predict an opening weeks ahead of a movie premiere, through ticket sellers like Fandango etc. How early can we expect to know the fate of / or predict the opening of TFA come this december, based on those tools?

 

As everyone else try's to explain ad nauseam there has never been a Star Wars film released in December & Star Wars plays to a different tune than any other movie ! I mean Star Wars Special Edition broke the January record way back in 1997 & held that for 11 years & is still no5 today so it basically doesn't mater a cr*p on December box office history , take March for instance Hunger Games at $152 million next is Alice in Wonderland at $116 mill ( rode the coat tails of Avatar ) & way way back at no3 way way is OZ the great & powerful at $79 million so it's the movie Hunger Games with a huge fan based that smashed the barrier I don't care if their is availability with the audience cause this is Star Wars so the audience will come your talking the big 3 reprising their roles for the first time in 32 years & a hell of a lot of fan frenzy is building , TFA is not the most look forward to movie of 2015 on every survey for nothing......mark my words TFA will take at least $140 million in it's opening weekend $90 million would be a joke......

 

Wanna make a bet?!? A $300 million domestic will hit the media like a brick. "Is Star Wars really dead?" will be the resulting headline for the box office.

People talk about the problems of the holiday time and the impact on movie openings. That's why I am saying between $130 and $145 million and not $170 and $200 million. $130's or $140's is being very reasonable and taking into consideration that there's a lot going on during the holidays.

If the movie opened in September, are we going to predict an opening of $50 million just because no other movie has ever opened in September over $50 million? Data can only go so far.

 

this is one person saying this, dont know how it affects it all but personally: when star wars always opens in may i see it 3 times. a few times first few months and once later in summer maybe. because this is opening in december there is no way in hell ill be able to do that within the first few months. hopefully it will be so awesome theyll have it going for a long time though.
only star wars movie i only saw once in theaters was ROTS.

 

I do know that with a child, seeing a movie more than once is almost impossible (although SW is an exception). But in the summer, it is much more doable.

On a completely different note, it was just announced that Avatar 2 will be postponed until 2017, which puts a considerable damper on Episode VIII coming out in December 2017 (it had a better shot with Avatar 3 than Avatar 2 which will be INSANELY anticipated). I'm really thinking they will put Eps 8 and 9 out in summer and this whole conversation becomes very different for those films.

Hell, even putting Episodes 8 and 9 out 4-5 weeks after Avengers or GOTG movies is better than putting it out 1-2 weeks away from an Avatar movie.

 

I see it totally the opposite way. I was stopping ROTS from being sold short and saying that TESB and ROTJ were amazing and ROTS is all things considered not all all that far behind them in the totality of the way the box office works.

The fact that after TPM did what it did with the anticipation and nostalgia factor which combined with the way the box office worked then when you only made a third or so of your domestic total in the first 10 days as opposed to now where it's often around 2-3rd's.

That means to me the acceptance of TPM was incredible considering that you didn't have the classic characters and younger different versions of support characters like Obi-Wan, Yoda and Palpatine (who the general audience probably had little idea he was going to be the Emperor) and on top of that you didn't use the classic iconography outside of the droids and the familiar but unfamiliar Jedi.

TFA will use all that the PT couldn't do to their advantage. At the same time it's a one-time thing going into the movie. Then as always it depends on the movie and the story itself.

Into the Woods got a lot of talk didn't it? I really didn't follow it but that is my impression from afar. 19 days and 100M is not what they had in mind I think.

That effect will not be in place for the future movies especially with the frequency they will be coming out with them. If this was a once every 2 years deal with Episodes only I would say otherwise but every year with the stand-alones? No.

I think most of us agree on the point that it's ultimately about the movie selling itself with word of mouth. Even though I think AOTC left tens of millions on the table by the way it was released I don't think it'd have gotten another 70M like ROTS. Maybe 20M or more up to 30M.

As pointed out the box office simply does not work the same way at Christmas as the summer or the Star Wars summertime:

ROTS opening weekend: 108M and that is the weekend only not counting the first day on Thursday which was another 50M.

ROTS opened on May 19, 2005 by 13 days later at the end of May it had grossed 275M domestically.

Only these films have done that from 2010 forwards.

HG:CF Nov 22
IM3 May 3
Avengers May 4
The Dark Knight Rises July 20
Transformers 3 June 29
HP 8 July 15

What I am saying is that TFA is really up against it in terms of people wanting some massive open in December.

Do I hope it can beat all the odds? Sure.

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/

The biggest ever opening so far was Hobbit 1 in 2012 with 84M+ and that is only 49th on the all-time list.

Avatar opened on Dec 18 2009 with 77M.

If TFA can get 90M in this current climate that would be astounding and yet some people would think it a disaster that it'd be 18M behind ROTS.

 

I'd like to believe that TFA could recreate the anticipatory magic of the Special Editions or TPM, but I just don't see it happening. The aging of the OT audience is a factor. The diminished cultural phenomenon of Star Wars in the post-PT world is another factor. The ascendancy of other franchises captivating youth audiences, in particular Disney's own Marvel cinematic universe, is a factor. The special editions and TPM also landed in a world where CGI was relatively novel, offering audiences something that they'd really only seen before with Jurassic Park. Avatar and Alice in Wonderland launched into a world where 3D was suddenly a novelty all over again. Avatar made it a novelty. Alice in Wonderland cashed in on the appeal of Avatar, and the fad quickly blended into the background as just a reliable revenue stream that allowed for price differentiation in the marketplace.

TFA just doesn't have anything much to offer in terms of cinematic novelty. The Star Wars universe is well worn and familiar to audiences. People have really already seen everything they're ever going to see in terms of perfectly integrated photorealistic digital effects. If there's a high frame rate or ultra ultra high definition "revolution" coming it's really not going to enhance the novelty of the cinematic experience in any meaningful way and in any case won't be implemented with TFA.

The only thing TFA has going for it is a shot at quality. Maybe it will be a pop cinematic masterpiece. But we all know how elusive pop mega hits really are. And how do you make it happen without a truly original story or idea? J.J. Abrams is not a director who inspires much confidence in his ability to be unequivocally great, but maybe Star Wars has inspired him the way Lord of the Rings inspired Peter Jackson to become something new and better than he was. Maybe.

Yes, nostalgia and the long-lived brand appeal of Star Wars will get a lot of people through the doors of cineplexes, but not necessarily enough to make the movie stand out as a box office sensation for the ages. Again, the practical money is on TFA being the second or third biggest movie of 2015, worldwide.

 

I just hope TFA is great and blows the records away.

 

Wait! So now YOU'RE getting on the bandwagon for TFA making less than $100 million in its opening weekend too?

So, Qui, what's your overall prediction for domestic box office for TFA?

 

TFA could potentially make $310 million in the U.S. from Dec 18 - Jan 3.

 

I expect that it will take over the December record from Hobbit 1's 84M. If it doesn't look out for the terrible backlash that might follow with those so wrapped up in the box office numbers to the degree that they are hoping for the "revival" of the franchise after the "damage" the prequels did to the brand.

Simply being on par with the very most successful franchises of the century so far isn't enough for them I guess. They want Star Wars to be above and beyond that like the OT was. I mean never mind that the OT had really no competition other than that other Lucas and Spielberg franchise Indiana Jones or if E.T. had sequels maybe or if Ghostbusters or Back to the Future had been better managed.

It's not that easy. See Batman then Batman Returns, the Narnia series, the Matrix series, the Night at the Museum series, Amazing Spider-Man and Terminator. It's hard to stay successful and very easy to screw up.

...or ROTS for that matter.

It could be but as I point out the diminishment if there actually is any comes not from the PT movies themselves or how the audience reacted to them but from some 10 years now of that relative few that have spent the last 10-15 years telling everyone else how badly they audience reacted to them. Not that it's real of course but they want it to be and maybe they will finally get their wish!

Exactly and one the OT never had to contend with and the PT only really had to directly with Spider-Man (which was the TPM of 2002) while HP and LOTR where in the same year but not at the same time.

On top of that the pre-sell is the rather underwhelming "We are going to make it like it was in the 70's with practical sets and props etc etc etc" which even Iger is in on. Do they really think that this is the way to go? To sell to that older audience who have not gone to a film in years (since ROTS) that doing it the "old fashioned way" is going to be the big draw?

Once they get to see all the "CGI" that the full trailer will have then won't this angle be finished?

I'm not sure what that even means. In a crowded marketplace what stands out? GotG I guess is the movie this year? Why? No one expected it and expectations were low.

Let's go back to RT's Tomatometer again. HG did very well well and HG:CF did better but the latest one is a bit of a tumble. I don't point this out as being scores that are some kind gold standard of ranking but just for comparison.

X-Men: DOFP got 92% approval from their RT audience and Last Stand only 62% yet the domestic box office was the same at 234M. Where DOFP won out was overseas with almost 300M more but Last Stand is still the second most successful X-film domestically and worldwide.

 

At the very least, they've taken this approach because JJ Abrams and Disney studio executives believe what you argue so vehemently against - that the PT has negatively impacted the Star Wars brand. Whether this is because they have sound market research to back it up or have simply been adversely affected by the vocal minority group of fanboys you claim are the only people who were ever the slightest bit underwhelmed or dipleased by the PT, I don't really know. The teaser trailer and the plot and the PR about reliance on physical sets and practical effects (in addition to CGI of course) are all aimed at rebuilding the Star Wars brand by appealing to the popularity of the OT.

Again, whether this is in response to a real need to do that, or a mistaken impression that they need to do that, I don't know. All I know is that the marketing of the sequel trilogy, and indeed its script and its visual style, are counterindicators to your position.

But I do agree that if they're trying to corral the older OT audience back to the movies, they may be barking up the wrong demographic tree. For the most part, we're too old to care.

 

The PT itself hasn't but the people who despise it so much that they've spent years lying about how it did it might have. I kind of doubt it though because the people who they are talking to are mostly part of the choir they are singing to but lots of misinformation does filter into the mainstream. I have met many a people convinced that the PT was "All-CG" and they know that "everyone hated them" and "everyone hated Jar Jar" and etc etc.

You know I don't say that. Please do not say I said something that I did not say. Over and over again I am talking about objective measures that are used for movie franchises regarding their success. Any one person can think anything they want. People would have you believe the just finished Hobbit is as despised as the PT and it was "All-CG" and they know that "everyone hated them"etc.

BTW Hobbit 3 has now passed the "beloved" GotG worldwide but is still almost 100M behind domestically. So the US market and the rest of the world are not always in total synch.

Don't follow. The OT didn't have any CGI per se (like a couple of graphic shots for the Death Star). Besides that presumably they are going to have behind the scenes features and the like. I guess they will keep these all for after the movie comes out before they reveal they did it almost exactly the same way the PT did and almost not at all like the analog way the OT did it.

The ST will be digital movies which like the PT will use the same techniques as the OT but digitally instead of analog. Unlike the PT they will use a few more puppets more here or there also enhanced by CGI and motion capture from everything I've heard. This will be part of their "blending" the OT and PT press clippings. I mean at some point they will have to admit to not using simply 1980's technology in their press.

I think they will go actually but mostly once not 15-30 times like 1977.

 

Guardians of the Galaxy is a fairly mediocre movie trying to sella cartoon rodent as edgy, but those are the kinds of movies that make more than $700 million wodwide. Hobbit 3 definitely saw some box office erosion from 1 and 2

 

Still made a good amount of money.

 

You previously said it would be unlikely to reach $200 million in 10 days. So it's going to go from under $200 million in 10 days to over $300 million in 17 days?

 

Speaking of box office, no more debating Star Wars Spinoff: Boba Fett Digests in the Sarlacc (or whatever it's gonna be called) vs. Avatar 2 allowed.

http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-30817048

All debates henceforth are now Episode VIII vs. Avatar 2. Please update accordingly.

 

From 1 yes but from 2? From the looks of things, Hobbit 3 will make about the same domestic as Hobbit 2. It needs about 20 M$ more to reach DOS and it made just under 10 M$ this weekend. Overseas is up in the air as it depends on how well it does in China. But the gross thus far has been hurt by a stronger dollar. In terms of admissions, Hobbit 3 is doing better than Hobbit 2 in many countries.

In all, it will most likely not make a billion world wide, say 930-950 M$ and perhaps 250-260 M$ domestic. In terms of drop that is pretty small. The drop from 1 to 2 world wide wasn't very big, about 5%. If Hobbit 3 drops world wide by the same amount it would make about 910 M$ and I think it can do more than that.

Bye for now.
Blackboard Monitor