ST Episode VII Box Office Discussion

This reminds me of Britney fans posting Billboard charts as proof that she's an amazing singer.

 

Hey if you want to compare Star Wars movies to Britney Spears that is up to you.

I would think more like The Beatles and The Stones or something myself.

Of course by the 70's when The Excorist, Jaws and Star Wars were passing Gone With The Wind those fans would say the same kind of thing. "Oh yeah well Star Wars might make more money but GWTW has all the Oscars."

That is for anyone who takes the Oscars seriously.

 

No need for that, Gone With The Wind still remains the actual highest grossing movie of all time
http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

Except that there are GOOD and BAD commercial/blockbuster movies, just as there are good & bad commercial/pop music acts. The Beatles, Adele, Britney are all hugely succesful popular acts. But not all of them make good music or sing well. Jaws, Empire Strikes Back, The Phantom Menace are all hugely succesful blockbuster movies. But not all of them are god movies on their own. Very simple

 

If you look at it that way they it will be an amazing thing for TFA's domestic to even pass AOTC's approx adjusted take of 444M since I think only like 4 movies have done that in the last 10 years straight up.

ROTS sold more tickets that TDKR and TPM sold far more than TDK.

Not really. Obviously the actual audience that went to these movies thought they were good enough to tell their friends that they were worth seeing.

What anyone makes of them after that fact is a whole other thing.

As I've said many times if those people who despise the prequels so much and want to tell the people years later how terrible they are then obviously at the time no one was paying a bit of attention to them. During TPM's truly amazing run of months at the box office.

Then they use the ridiculous "Well people disliked it so much they didn't turn up for AOTC." Wouldn't that actually hurt TPM's run? Except it didn't nor the tons of VHS, then DVD sales etc.

I guess that mean the less successful LOTR movies were even worse then? Never mind all the other series that were less successful. Except that it wasn't the movies that drew people in it was the brand. The brand that was hurt by all the success and will continue to be hurt by the success of the new movies?

 

Hey, you were the one who wanted to use box office numbers in argument.

And Gone With The Wind nearly outsells all of them combined

So now you wanna use "numbers =/= quality" in defense of LOTR trilogy for example? But TPM's box office gross is diret proof of the movie's amazing quality in your opinion? You pick and chose when box office numbers suit you. As it's been said contless times, sales/numbers are not direct verification of quality. They may OR may not indicate quality. But there are countless other factors involved, including marketing, hype, anticipation, popularityof previous "products" from the line, merchndise etc. Can you honestly say that a billion dollar each Transformers movie makes has to be a proof the audience thinks the movies are great?

 

TPM all time run of $474 million might just be the bench mark for TFA if it can get to that mark or even higher then everyone would be happy add to that $800 - $900 million from the rest of the world we might be in for $1.3 to $1.5 billion all up

 

You're using box office numbers to represent quality? That can be easily shot down with Transformers numbers.

I just looove The Phantom Menace apologists in 2015. They make for a good read with morning coffee.

Take your fanboism somewhere else, it's okay to love Star Wars and appreciate all the aspects, but don't try and tell me TPM is a quality movie, because it's not, it's far from it, and especially in comparison with other entries in the saga.

Again - back on topic - box-office is NOT representative of the quality.

 

So status of the Box Office right now is, Hollywood is doing great again. Fifty Shades of Grey and American Sniper ( thank God we are not getting a sequel to that!) pulling in the crowds, money, money, money. But even Matthew Vaughn`s The Kingsman is doing very good business. How big will "Age of Ultron" be i wonder..
Those two movies "Grey" + "Sniper" , have both though, created a lot of discussion and controversy. So i see a pattern. Star Wars is a very different property. There is also the problem of the currency worldwide, it can hurt the movies total BO, like it has with the Hobbit. The dollar vrs the Russian ruble, and the EURO for instance. Not good. Still. Its Star Wars. It will hit big...

 

Not sure about you guys but the rumors/spoilers that have come out this week could certainly cause the movie to lose as much as $100 million or more at the box office.

Last weeks fake rumor dump sounded great and had the makings for a potentially great story. But this week? We're talking TASM2 territory in terms of disappointing.

 

Amazing and on the Box Office Discussion thread!

Who'd thunk that?

LOL!

Yes and the PT tickets will not be touched by the ST. That's how it works. More tickets were sold in the past than ever could be now save in the most exceptional case of Avatar which is the only movie from the 21C in the top 25. I think there are a total of 6 21C movies in the top 50.

Proof of the quality that the audience thought of it? Sure. Because it's the same kind of "proof" that all major all-time box office hits have.

Domestic all-time top 10

1 Avatar Fox $760,507,625
2 Titanic Par. $658,672,302
3 Marvel's The Avengers BV $623,357,910
4 The Dark Knight WB $534,858,444
5 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace Fox $474,544,677
6 Star Wars Fox $460,998,007
7 The Dark Knight Rises WB $448,139,099
8 Shrek 2 DW $441,226,247
9 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial Uni. $435,110,554
10 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire LGF $424,668,047

Not at all. I can't pick and choose numbers that are facts. All I can do is state them. We can then argue over what they mean.

The success of the prequels and TPM in particular in every measurable way, shape and form of success is there. You can't get away from it. You can't deny it (well I guess you can but that won't change anything).

1999 TPM #1 domestically and worldwide. Currently #5 domestic all-time and #16 worldwide all-time.
2002 AOTC #3 domestically and #4 worldwide. Currently #42 domestic all-time and #82 worldwide all-time.
2005 ROTS #1 domestically and #2 worldwide. Currently #42 domestic all-time and #22 worldwide all-time.

For the "quality" that the audience wants I think they are. It's certainly a better indicator than the Oscars. The AA are voted by the few for the few and then sold to the masses as representing quality.

Those top 10 all-time domestic movies are votes from millions of people to say this is what we like. Not hundreds, not thousands but millions and millions.

As to what they like and want? Absolutely. Doesn't mean that you or I have to agree with them in the least.

T4 was the least successful of the movies domestically so that indicate the US market is tiring of them if not the worldwide market and China in particular.

Yet the same public thought TPM was akin to ANH or ET or whatever. It's not easy to be that successful. If selling movies were that easy then you wouldn't have all the failures now would you?
You can hype something all you want but the audience makes their minds up pretty quick and it doesn't take them that long to figure out what they like and don't.

 

Error check:
2005 ROTS #1 domestically and #2 worldwide. Currently #42 domestic all-time and #22 worldwide all-time.
should be:
2005 ROTS #1 domestically and #2 worldwide. Currently #22 domestic all-time and #39 worldwide all-time.
(did some reversing and copy with the numbers for AOTC and ROTS when placing them.)

Not near as good as TPM despisers. There stuff has been hilarious for 16 years now!

Not sure if you were talking to me or someone else but anyone can tell you anything they want to. TPM is an excellent quality movie especially in comparison with other entries in the saga and anything else.

As before it is a direct reflection of what the audience considers quality otherwise these movies wouldn't have the repeat business they enjoy from said audience and if people so dislike a movie why would they tell their friends it was worth to go and see for themselves?

This is the thing that stumps those who can't accept the reality that the same forces that got people to go to all the other top grossing films also apply to TPM in the theatres, on home video on VHS, DVD, and now BD for the last 16 years.

Currently on Amazon (this is in constant flux of course but this was earlier today) selling right there in SF with GotG in 2015!

PT
#117 in Movies & TV
#5 in Movies & TV > Blu-ray > Science Fiction
#18 in Movies & TV > Blu-ray > Action & Adventure

OT
#81 in Movies & TV
#3 in Movies & TV > Blu-ray > Science Fiction
#12 in Movies & TV > Blu-ray > Action & Adventure

 

The Biggest Franchise EVER! 27 BILLION DOLLARS:

 

I think it's going to make a lot of money.

 

$27 billion - Disney got it cheap at $4.1 billion......

 

So, going just by box office numbers, how many movies you think it'll take for Disney to make back the 4.1 billion? I'ma saying 5. (I don't think the spinoff films will be billion dollar grosers, probably take the ST plus 2 spin off with the majority of that 4.1 coming from the ST films).

Disney would probably hit 4.1 billion by the time Rouge One finishes it's run but most of that would be merchandising, I'd wager.

 

I think Rouge One will be a bit arthouse, and won't make much money at all. Might win some awards at Cannes and Venice, though.

 

It's gonna turn a profit simply due to TFA momentum / Star Wars label on it. Although I do hope that it's as esoteric as Gareth Edward's last two movies. Which I enjoyed. They're weird but me likey.

 

I just think a film with a French word in the title is going to have some difficulty at the Box Office.

 

What's funny about the 27 Billion is between myself, my parents buying me and brothers movies and Star Wars Toys, I think we contributed to about 2,000 dollars of that, lol. As for the box office. I think 1 Billion Worldwide is a Lock, the question is how much higher can it go? "Episode VII" is benefiting from being the 1st new Star Wars movie in 10 years, also being the sequel to "Jedi".

 

Honestly George could of gotten more. They will make 4 Billion off Episode VII/Rouge One/Episode VIII once you factor in box office, toys, merch, home video. So it was a good investment.

 

Posting billboard charts doesn't really demonstrate anying other than popularity relative to competition at a given moment in time. Actual unit sales would be much more compelling in making a case for Britney Spears popularity... although I don't believe she's broken any records on that front.

 

But the fact still remains, the domestic and worldwide BO for AotC dropped about 30% from TPM.
Yes TPM had great legs but the sequel dropped quite a bit. If the reason is not TPM then the reason would be AotC. That either people didn't bother to see it or they did see it but didn't reccomend it.
AotC had nowhere near the legs that TPM had.

You mention the LotR films and there the domestic BO increased from the first to the second and to the third.
For the second Harry Potter film the doemstic BO dropped about 18%, considerably less than AotC's drop. The second spiderman film dropped about 7% from the first one.

Yes it is common that sequels drop from the first film but in recent years some film series have gone against that "rule" and some others that did drop, dropped less than AotC.

As for VHS/DVD sales for TPM. The DVD sales were 6th for the year 2001, less than Cast Away.
http://www.leesmovieinfo.net/Video-Sales.php?type=3&week_id=207&limit=21

AotC was 5th for the year of 2002, interstingly it sold more units than TPM. But then again DVD was growing as a format then.
http://www.leesmovieinfo.net/Video-Sales.php?y=2002&type=3
FotR by far outsold AotC on DVD.

RotS was no 2 for the year of 2005.
http://www.leesmovieinfo.net/Video-Sales.php

So yes TPM and AotC sold well and RotS even more so. But the LotR films outsold them on DVD/VHS.

In closing, none of the PT films were "hated" by anything close ot a majority of movie goers and they certainly didn't do badly. There was a considerable drop from TPM to AotC which suggests that some were not as thrilled with either TPM or AotC.

EDIT.
Some posters over at boxofficetheory.com have tried to adjust the worldwide gross for exchange rates and got some interesting results.
http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/index.php?/topic/18043-adjusting-exchange-rates/page-1

Here is the WW list adjusted by exchange rates:

#. FILM: Original OS - Original WW ==> New OS - New WW
1. Avatar: 2.027 billion - 2.787 billion ==> 1.733 billion - 2.493 billion
2. Titanic: 1.528 billion - 2.186 billion ==> 1.449b - 2.107b
3. The Avengers: 895 million - 1.518 billion ==> 755.5m - 1.378b
4. Frozen: 873m - 1.274b ==> 750m - 1.151b
5. Deathly Hallows II - 960m - 1.341b ==> 755.5m - 1.136b
6. Iron Man 3: 806m - 1.215b ==> 697.8m - 1.106b
7. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone: 657m - 974m ==> 752m - 1.069b
8. The Return of the King: 742m - 1.119b ==> 668.8m - 1.046b
9. Transformers 4: 841m - 1.087b ==> 767.6m - 1.013b
10. The Phantom Menace: 552m - 1.027b ==> 528.8m - 1.003b
11. Transformers 3: 771m - 1.123b ==> 647.5m - 999.9m
12. Pirates of the Caribbean 2: 642m - 1.066b ==> 574m - 997.5m
13. The Dark Knight Rises: 636m - 1.084b ==> 544.8m - 993m
14. Skyfall: 804m - 1.108b ==> 686.9m - 991.3m
15. Jurassic Park: 626.7m - 1.029b ==> 573.1m - 975.6m
16. Fellowship of the Ring: 556m - 871m ==> 642m - 957.8m
17. The Hobbit 3: 700m - 954m ==> 700m - 954m
18. Toy Story 3: 648m - 1.063b ==> 536.8m - 951.8m
19. The Two Towers: 583m - 926m ==> 600m - 943m
20. The Lion King: 564.7m - 987m ==> 501m - 924m
21. The Dark Knight: 469.7m - 1.004b ==> 375.8m - 910.7m
22. Chamber of Secrets: 617m - 879m ==> 631.9m - 893.9m
23. The Hobbit 1: 714m - 1.017b ==> 589.2m - 892.2m
24. Alice in Wonderland: 691m - 1.025b ==> 557.9m - 892.1m
25. Finding Nemo: 555.9m - 936m ==> 499m - 879.9m
26. Shrek 2: 478.6m - 919m ==> 430.3m - 871.5m
27. Despicable me 2: 602.7m - 970m ==> 502.1m - 870.2m
28. Pirates of the Caribbean 3: 654m - 963m ==> 557.5m - 866.9m
29. Revenge of the Sith: 468m - 848m ==> 477.7m - 858m
30. The Hobbit 2: 702m - 960m ==> 592.5m - 850.9m
31. Globet of Fire: 606.9m - 896.9m ==> 559.7m - 849.7m
32. Pirates of the Caribbean 4: 804.6m - 1.045.7b ==> 608m - 849.1m
33. Half-Blood Prince: 632.4m - 934m ==> 542m - 844.3m
34. Spider-man: 418m - 821.7m ==> 437.2m - 840.9m
35. Deathly Hallows I: 664.3m - 960m ==> 542.6m - 838.6m
36. Spider-man 3: 554m - 890.8m ==> 501.4m - 837.9m
37. Order of the Phoenix: 647.8m - 939.8m ==> 534.4m - 826.5m
38. Transformers 2: 434m - 836m ==> 401.4m - 803.5m
39. Catching Fire: 440m - 864m ==> 372m - 797m
40. Guardians of the Galaxy: 441m - 774m ==> 441m - 774m

Slightly interesting that Harry Potter 1 is now above one billion and beats all three LotR films.
And with the same exchange rates, FotR would have outgrossed TPM world wide (initial release of course).

Bye for now.
The Guarding Dark

 

The most obvious question when it comes to TFA is: Will it climb the peak?



First of all, check out January 2016:



Mission Impossible moved up to July, there's nothing on the horizon (except for Tarantino and Academy Award material getting wide releases post January)... it's safe to say one thing atm - Episode VII is going to awake the force, question is only how strong will be this powerful user: Obi-Wan, Anakin, Yoda or Luke post-ROTJ? Nobody wants Finn levels alright.*

*sorry, had to

I think third spot is easy-peasy for Ultron, with massive fan/IMAX/3D support, I can see it ending up at 1,7 bil. Mad Max and others will mess with that of course, it's not a given. As for Star Wars breaking 2 bil... it's not 1999 unfortunately... even though they have all the benefits of December, gigantic fan and media support, already, and pretty much everyone agrees opening weekend will blow everything through the roof... true potential remains to be seen, in January. It's going to be exciting year that's for sure... not to mention BvS launching in frickin March, of all months.

Back to 2 billion worth discussion: for TFA to earn that kind of money they'd need to have your mother and your father, along with your grandmother, going back to watch it, ala Titanic, or Avatar, for the n-th time. Star Wars doesn't have the two billion appeal that could bring out all sorts of characters not necessarily into movies; it's definitely worldwide cinema event but history tells us even those can't reach the peak just like that, just look at the numbers above... unless, and this is extremely important: both critics and the public rave it as one true comeback of the brand, a movie event that delivers true magic of Star Wars... Basically, they'd need to strike that lightning one more time, like in '77, which I think is impossible with Episode VII, maybe with Episode VIII if The Force Awakens turns out to be the very best of J.J. Abrams and Co. - restoring the faith of your public, then knocking it out with Empire Strikes Back-styled sequel (as the epithome of how sequels should look like and feel like, not representation of Johnson's sequel, everybody should do their own thing, naturally).

I see a great January on b.o. for Disney, but anything beyond two billion, really hard to predict right now.

TFA has a fair and possible shot though... probably the only movie on the horizon until Avatar sequel. There's that factor of unpredictability, of 'new stuff' on the horizon, uncharted space territory. Avatar came out six years ago, Titanic needed 3D re-release for 2 bill., maybe it's finally time to de-throne them? No easy task but who knows... fans and general audiences (and their families) will ultimately decide.

 

It is funny though, how despite the Critics hatred of The Phantom Menace, it is still one of the highest grossing movies of all time. So I don't think it is necessarily smart marketing on Disney's part to avoid the Prequels like the plague. The fact is that the masses loved TPM, despite the self important Critics.

 

They have to market the sequel trilogy with nothing but sequel trilogy elements, leaning onto OT or PT is irrelevant, even though OT makes more sense since, hey, it's the closest time period. Saga contains six movies, they can't change that, and won't.