ST Episode VII Box Office Discussion

Ultimately of course you are correct. The reality is that we will only be able to discuss any relevant comparisons after TFA comes out and does whatever it does.

With only 10 years between them ROTS was at least in a somewhat similar worldwide market in comparison to any other Star Wars movie though still very different with few digital theaters and no 3D and IMAX only being used for a very few major movies until really getting going in 2006.

In terms of box office numbers what is really key is the domestic attendance. Just like the NFL ticket sales it's pretty steady overall but still trending down.

Can Avengers really come close to 623M again? If it doesn't (and we are going to know fairly quickly) then TFA at 400M becomes a best case scenario.

 

Age of Ultron may or may not break the record for opening weekend but it will NOT beat the first Avengers in total domestic intake. Actually, I don't think it will make it to $600 million.

It won't be because it's not as good. It's because that ceiling is too high and the hype just hasn't been quite the same. For the same reason, Avatar 2 will NOT hit Avatar's numbers when it come out.

But TFA could very well top all other SW movies. Adjusted gross? No. Raw numbers? It very well could. No guarantee, but the ceilings for the others just weren't that crazy.

 

Just to do a comparison with Avatar and its holiday run in the U.S. in which its opening day also fell on December 18. I think that TFA will be slightly more front-loaded than Avatar, but because of the particular make up of the holidays, it will split its opening weekend like Avatar did between the pre-christmas weekend and the post Christmas weekend, so that we could see something like this:

Friday 12/18 40
Saturday 12/19 44
Sunday 12/20 27

weekend 1: $111 million - the biggest December opening weekend ever.

Monday 12/21 17.82
Tuesday 12/22 17.5
Wednesday 12/23 17.5
Thursday 12/24 14

first week. many people still work ahead of Christmas. People mostly don't go to the movies on Christmas eve, so Christmas eve Thur is lower than Wed, as per Avatar.

Friday 12/25 30
Saturday 12/26 38
Sunday 12/27 25

weekend 2: $93 million. A mere 16% drop, higher than Avatar, because TFA doesn't have quite the legs of that movie, but still low because many people were unable to see the movie opening weekend due to other holiday activities/conflicts

Monday 12/28 21
Tuesday 12/29 19
Wednesday 12/30 19
Thursday 12/31 16

Many more people off work/school in the days between Xmas and New Year's. weekday totals are actually higher than in week one. Again there's a Wed-Thursday drop due to New Year's Eve

Friday 1/1 23
Saturday 1/2 25
Sunday 1/3 17

weekend 3: $65 million. a slight 30% drop. More than Avatar again, but still a big win from the holiday Friday. Avatar retains the record for highest 3d weekend by a small margin.

First 17 days: $410 million in the U.S.

This assumes a very good movie, something people would compare favorably to Return of the Jedi. So, helpful hint, when people ask you why TFA didn't make $200 million its opening weekend, just tell them: "IT'S PLAYING LIKE AVATAR." It may or may not be true, but it will work for a week.

Meanwhile, in the present, Furious 7 has passed Iron Man 3 to become the sixth most successful movie in history, in nominal dollars. It will pass Frozen within the next few days.

 

I agree. I watch SW in theaters, and even though I enjoy the Marvel films I don't watch them in theaters. And I doubt I'm the only one like this. I personally don't know anyone over 35, I know there are plenty out there, that watch Marvel films in theaters.

 

Good point about Marvel. Robert Downey jr is a big draw with over 30, 35 though, but question is if this is enough to get them down to the ticket booths. And about Jim Cameron`s two blockbusters, Titanic and Avatar, Cameron really hit the heights in terms of box office revenue when he started communicating with an more mature audience, and especially...the girls, women. I have a sneak feeling that this is somewhat on Disney and Lucasfilms agenda, as they try focusing on a nostalgia touch to the ST, but at the same time, try pull in the kids. If this proves successful, we will se a hit of big proportions i think.

 

I'm 34 and like Downey Jr quite a bit, and I still wont pay to see a Marvel film in theater. They're entertaining but not entertaining enough to get me to pay for a ticket. Didn't like Avatar and wont be seeing any of the sequels nor did I like Titanic, which I waited to watch on a movie channel. Cameron, and yes I'm aware that this is blasphemy to many, is a very overrated directer who has in my opinion put out more crap than gold. I should also point out that unlike a lot of people I only watch a couple movies a year, if that, in theaters. Takes something special, at least special to me, to get me to pay for a ticket. Last film I watched in theaters was Dawn of the Apes. Next I'll see Mad Max: Fury Road and then TFA.

 

If a movie is going to make Titanic and Avatar or for that matter ANH money, it has to show audiences something they've never seen before. Avatar 2 will make great money, but it won't make Avatar money. Cameron doesn't have any tricks left up his sleeve

 

It's that first weekend that I feel you are WAY off. $111 million in its first weekend? Really? With all the hype it's going to be getting? Remember, it comes out the weekend BEFORE Christmas. People are still in town. Not everyone goes away over Christmas.

12/18: $60 million
12/19: $45 million
12/20: $40 million

 

Don't know if it'll do it but I honestly feel TFA has the potential to set a new record.

 

I do agree with you about Avatar and would consider it being perfect timed, first 3D blockbuster, really showing off new technology. Well, a bit like ANH in 77. Which also had the all new Dolby sound system. I think Cameron will struggle too, at least a bit, to copy that success. Now they are locked in the script process with 3 Avatar sequels, and already delaying the first sequel. But my point was also about the way Cameron made the female audience come to the theaters.

 

I don't think there's going to be much of a struggle. Avatar 2 will not come close to the success of the original, which really relied mostly on gimmick anyway. ESB remains the benchmark of sequel performance.

 

This probably has little bearing on box office in the grand scheme of things, but the Age of Ultron press tour has been a complete effing DISASTER. Marvel needs to send Tom Hiddleston out on a charm offensive to recover from this mess.

Just hope these SW actors can hold it together for 3 movies.

 

I hope it breaks records. And hopefully Battlefront will do the same! SW will dominate both the film and game market!

 

Why what's happened?

 

Everyone's been offensive, they even had to cut out parts of their appearance on Graham Norton.

 

Age of Ultron had $45 million going into its first international weekend--includes most of Europe. It doesn't open in China until May 12 or in Japan until July, so it's likely to rack up a number of consecutive large weekend totals.

From the reviews it's easy to tell that the movie is perfectly adequate, and if it performs like most sequels, it will have a larger opening weekend, breaking all records, possibly making $220 million or more, but will drop faster. Its U.S. total will likely be at least 25% lower than Avengers 1, but its foreign total may well be considerably higher. It might make about the same as the original worldwide, with $500 million U.S. and $1 billion outside the U.S.

So, Furious 7 and Age of Ultron will end up neck and neck for the top movie of 2015.

 

Perhaps worldwide, but not domestic. FF7 will end up between $330 and $340 million. AOU will end up with $570-$580 million if what I'm guessing.

But while AOU will be a monster at the BO, the press has been much more subdued. Heck, with all the recent events, TFA has gotten a LOT more press than AOU lately.

 

It really does seem like Whedon & his actors are all REALLY tired of being on the Marvel train. The edges seem really frayed, and from what I'm hearing about the film itself, that kind of filters into the movie proper.

Which means its likely a good idea they're planning on back-burnering the original castmembers for newer characters going forward, at least until Infinity War pt. II. Because the atmosphere everybody's putting forward has the slight taste of "burnout" to it. It's not prominent or anything. But it's there.

 

Timing of Celebration did seems to interfere a bit with Avengers hype, but arguably Avengers doesn't need much hype. I haven't seen a single tv spot for Age of Ultron yet, not that I have really been watching much tv either.

I do think it's unusual for a movie to get as much attention as TFA is getting this far ahead of its opening weekend. It is very evocative of Lord of the Rings and The Phantom Menace. However, things look a lot different from inside the fan bubble, and I don't really know how it looks to an outsider. The trailer got some decent mainstream media hits, but it's hard to know how much attention normal people are paying to it.

 

For me Avengers 2 was a lot better than Avengers 1 & it will smash past $1 billion in foreign territories & push $600 domestic for a total of around $1.7 to $1.8 billion....TFA is on track for a little less than that probably $1.5 to $ 1.6 billion - only because Star Wars has never been that big at the foreign box office.....

 

Jupiter Ascending was huge in China, so SW might have the same success or better there.

 

By what logic?

I think you're right. I forecast AOU dropping from the first but still remaining well above $500 million. I expect TFA to end up at $525-550m with AOU at $550-575m. The Dark Knight made $535m which is where I see TFA's final gross hovering around. The future is cloudy. TFA doesn't have the demographic range that TDK did (as much as us SW fanboys would like to think) but there is the excitement, hype, Disney marketing and anticipation. Plus you'll have a good many seeing it multiple times.


PS: I have no doubt that many theaters will run TFA marathons where one ticket gets you in for an entire day. I think I'll want to see it with different audiences though instead of fellow binge watchers.

By Saturday afternoon it will have set the December opening weekend record.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/month/?mo=12&p=.htm

 

I think that, first of all, Age of Ultron isn't going to be the smash explosion we were expecting. It'll do great, amazing even, but not spectacular. There is a bit of a bad taste in the mouth I'm seeing in most reviews, that it's good but it just doesn't come together as well. It'll have a large opening, sure, but I don't think it'll have the spectacular legs it needs to push forward.

 

Agreed. From my impression, it gives the action that people want but nothing all that different from what we've seen. People are really wanting to see the Avengers take on Thanos. I have no idea if Thanos shows up in this one, but it looks like they're fighting the same legion of aliens/robots they fought in the first one but with a different leader.

 

Avengers 2 is 80% on Rottentomatoes so hardly a bad taste reviews....Thanos only shows up in the post credit also Ultron is way cooler villain than Lokie & is a far greater threat thus is why they needed 3 more Avengers to take him on anyway Furious 7 is forecast to do around $1.6 billion ! surely Star Wars is a grater Icon than Furious surely TFA can go over $1.6 billion......