ST Episode VII Box Office Discussion

Great.

Obviously I am pointing out that the "CGI" excuse is a rubbish one but one that I know people have used. They apply it or any other number of things to Star Wars but not other movies or if they do not with the vehemence and outright disgust.

I only used that as an example anyway in comparison to the good equals good unless they think it isn't be it the movie, box office, CGI or anything.

Like I said no one can deny the success with the audiences ( meaning they can of course but that won't make it any less true)

As I said they seem to take the success as a personal affront because "everyone knows" that didn't happen.

Except it did.

" I've even heard utter madness where some fans believe the hate is part of a conspiracy."

Mostly laziness and contempt I'd say. Very obviously somehow a number of media people have been convinced of a lot of nonsense. You know this. You've read for years and years the "received wisdom" about the prequels. The outright lies about the audience despising them despite all evidence to the contrary.

Know you know how this is total nonsense of course and how much the audience enjoyed them and still do.

The thing is that they are not "beloved" so that somehow that is a problem for some people.

 

I suggest you visit any message board that speaks about the Hobbit trilogy and the new Jurassic World then.

 

Do you know of Mark Kermode?

 

I think the Star Wars OT is better than the LOTR films. The PT, on the other hand...

 

So anyway since the success of Star Wars movies with audiences has been entrenched for decades now through 6 movies the only real question is can the new movies in particular the ST and the upcoming TFA have the same relative success?

I don't see why it won't. Though the heights of ANH and TPM are hard to get to. That is why I think a closer to modern equivalent of ROTS is more likely or maybe higher than ROTS but lower than TPM.

So 450M or more domestic has been my feeling which has been 400M+ for a long time now.

If it's more great but of course all I selfishly want is a movie that is as great as all the rest are.

If it gets to AOTC levels and "only" makes about 400M I really won't care of course as long as I enjoy it and everything I hear makes me think I will.

Numbers change of course as do the markets and the world market is just keeeping on growing while the NA one is in decline overall with 7 of the last 10 years ticket sales down and 5 of the last 10 the overall box office down.

Outside of Titanic from the 90's everything in the top 25 international grosses is from the 2000's of the other 24 only 5 are pre-2009 with the 3D premiums that really kicked in with Avatar.

3D in it's current form has seems to have peaked in 2012 with a sharp increase in both ticket sales and gross (a monster hit like Avengers certainly helps that) that ebbed over into 2013 (though ticket sales went down the box office edged over 10.9B)

Between Furious 7, Avengers AOU out now and JB: Spectre, the new Pixar Inside Out, Hunger Games 4 and TFA (plus possibly some others that might hit) could this be the first year to break 11B?

Can TFA really do what TPM did in 1999 and become the second largest grossing domestic movie of all time upon first release and beat out Avengers 623M?

Of course AOU might do that this year alone.

That is what is so interesting about it's release. If it does than that shows it is possible at this time at the box office. If it doesn't then how far it "falls" to a "mere" 500M something would indicate that it's less and less likely.

 

Oh good, so you guys are still talking about box office in here.

 

So AoU was packed when I went last night.

 

No one doubts that TFA will do well in the U.S. unless it is such a misfire that it makes Attack of the Clones look like a masterpiece of modern cinema by comparison. And it looks so very very good in the teasers that many people are sold on it despite not knowing the first thing about the plot.

I don't think anyone wants to dispute the high earning potential of Star Wars in the U.S.

Given the teaser trailers, I agree with Qui-Riv-Brid that $400 is an absolute floor for even a middling, nothing really special about it TFA. The upward bound is a mystery, but I'd go for anything between $450 million - $700 million in the U.S.

My best guess scenario calls for TFA to make $400 million by the end of the New Year's weekend in the U.S. It will get to $400 million in roughly the same number of days as The Dark Knight.

So Disney is now officially stating that it expects AOU to pass $200 million this weekend.

 

I couldn't agree more, even though I think the floor is a bit low; I'd bet on it being around 450M or a bit more.
About the ceiling: this will be a huge event movie, and, if it's great (or even good), we could have something around 700M, really. Specially if we consider that Phantom Menace's adjusted domestic gross sits at almost 690M!

 

Except in relative terms it was second all-time domestically at 430M (first year of release) while ANH was ahead with all the releases added up (the SE got 140M). Titanic was at 600M.

Save for Titanic's 3D reissue Avengers would be second with 623M.

Of course we will see what AOU does. TPM adjusted is indicative of what could happen but of course far less tickets are sold now though they cost more (up by about 60% since 1999 on average).

Only Avatar broke the 700M barrier with 760M then Titanic and Avengers with 600M then The Dark Knight with 535M.

Nothing else has broke more than 450 on first release (though Dark Knight Rises came so close) and of course TPM and ANH have done that with more than one release.

One presumes that AOU will do that. It took Avengers 20 days to get there.

 

AOU tracking strong:

http://deadline.com/2015/05/avengers-age-of-ultron-thursday-box-office-1201419080/

Personally, I don't see the appeal, but I aged out of its core demo some time ago

I liked Avengers, will probably enjoy AOU when I see it (eventually), but it's nothing approaching an "event" movie for me.

Btw, someone mentioned Ex Machina a few posts back -- I saw it opening night. Don't miss it. Terrific film, and a much better use of your movie-going dollar than AOU

 

I also assume that TFA will be on some levels at least an enjoyable movie.

Personally, I don't think Abrams is any kind of a visionary genius. He's done stuff on tv that is entertaining but shallow. And he's done stuff at the movies that is entertaining but pretty shallow. Of course, Star Wars is entertaining but pretty shallow.

If Abrams delivers 09 Star Trek quality work on TFA, then I think audiences will be relatively satisfied, and I'd throw my weight behind a domestic total in the low $500 million range. Right now the movie is being sold on the sole fact that it looks like a Ferrari. But for all we know it could be an old Kia under the hood. We have nothing to go on in terms of narrative quality, the performances, the dialogue, etc., other than a sense that Abrams is unlikely to completely screw any of those things up or hire anyone who would completely screw them up.

 

But TLOTR got 3 times more awards, so they are empirically better because awards don't lie... And The Dark Knight got more awards than TESB, so TDK must be the better film because there's no in built bias in the awarding of such trophies... And let's not mention Titanic being vastly superior to any Star Wars film right... because Titanic is brilliant. Glad you agree.

 

Except that as we know none of that means anything. All the movies have been ripped by someone sometime for "poor" narrative quality, performances, dialogue etc.

If it doesn't get some or all of that then it will be a first for Star Wars.

Like I said before once the movie comes out and does what it does then we will all be geniuses at examining why it did or didn't hit.

The box office take will determine how good the audience thinks that it actually was regardless of what anyone person does.

The audience embraced TPM and there is nothing that anyone can do about it now or ever whatever they think of it and whether TFA can do the same is the question.

 

Right. I think there's an important distinction between going to a movie and liking it, and I think the Star Wars brand has taken a hit because of the likability of the PT. Not that no one liked it. TPM had the advantage of being an event movie that people felt obligated to see. My sense is that Star Wars no longer has that aura of inevitability about whether or not people will see it. Maybe it lingers a bit in the US, but has diminished since the prequels.

If the reviews for TFA were bad enough, I would not go see it. I might rent it eventually. And I think a lot of people feel that way about Star Wars now... For whatever the reason. Nevertheless, the marketing campaign emphasizing nostalgia for the OT seems to have rekindled a huge level of interest, which I'm safe in assuming hasn't really come close yet to the hype in advance of TPM.

So, I really doubt TFA has a shot at TPM's adjusted domestic box office. The Star Wars audience has shrunk, has aged out of the core moviegoing demographic, and has not been replenished by young fans.

 

I kind of agree that the box office reflects how the audience feels about a film. Most of the time, audiences know early on whether or not they're enjoying the movie. However, with franchises like Star Wars, you have to account for the hype.

How much of TPM's success was due to fans having to wait 16 years for a new Star Wars film and the hype of getting Vader's backstory vs. the quality of the film itself? I loved TPM when it first came out. The hype was incredible, and the film had some exciting moments (Jedi slicing down battle droids; podrace sequence; action-packed climax.). However, once the hype died down and I had a much better opportunity to examine the film on its own merits, I grew to dislike it. It's so boring...

TFA will undoubtedly make crazy money come December, but that doesn't automatically mean fans will love it 10 years from now.

 

I don't think this is true. TCW and now Rebels have introduced Star Wars to the young demographic. It is by no means comparable to the initial Star Wars introduction back at 77 but it's an introduction nonetheless. You won't have every kid around the world wondering what the heck is Star Wars that's for sure.

 

The viewership for those shows is just okay though. If they were getting like Avatar: The Last Airbender numbers, then I think they really did hit it with young audiences. Also kids these days have so much entertainment tailored for them, it's not like the 80s where SW just dominated that market.

 

Never said those shows dominated the young audiences market. Just saying that those shows helped introduced Star Wars to the young audiences and kept Star Wars fresh to a certain degree.

 

Last I heard, the numbers now range from high 80s to mid 90s, most likely low 90s.

They really need to stop this craze about a record breaking "opening day". Counting an entire evening towards the real first day isn't an opening day anymore, a day has 24 hours, not 29. Cut all that garbage, only count the first day from midnight to midnight or go even further and declare anything that happens pre midnight as the real opening day and have all these blockbusters only achieve 20-30 million at most, as that is about the amount they can rack up in the five hours of that day.

 

Very true. What is the definition of an opening day right now? AOU seems to operate with two definitions. And people are buying it of course. If Hollywood would ever just classify itself as just a retail industry, it would be fun to put out those facts in sold tickets, just like sold units for a damn H&M designer shirt campaign. But its those $$$$.....flashing around.

Btw, the budget of the AOU is about $ 250 mill according to the media trades. Not including marketing, about $ 100, is that a realistic tally? So, you take half the slice of the total BO, and then AOU will break even, maybe first when it hits 650 domestic. Its easy now to see why Sony just put the "Marc Webb/ Andrew Garfield" version of their Spiderman franchise to rest, into the garbage can literally, when it made just a bit over $ 200 domestic, and even the foreign BO could not save it. At $700 + something, they are not making money. They loose. And especially since Marvel still have merchandise rights to Spiderman.

 

That's why people talk about 3x production budget as the break even point for a movie, as a rule of thumb to account for the additional costs of marketing over the budget. An event movie like Avengers with a global marketing campaign has huge advertising costs but can also boost awareness through all kinds of cobranding. You saw that with this movie, and you'll see a lot of it with Star Wars and Bond.

 

I understand you think SW is THE franchise but I suspect that the rest of the world don't agree with you to the extent that you think. SW is big and popular no question. But around the world a number of franchises are as big if not bigger.
Even in countries were SW is big, like the UK, LotR, HP, James Bond is bigger. SW is big in Germany but LotR is bigger.

The Bond series has SW beat in terms of longevity and by now you have 20+ films.

As for enduing popularity, the LotR films are still very well regarded over all and I see them get mentioned and referenced quite frequently. Esp in reviews of other fantasy films.
There are no sequels to the LotR films for the obvious reason, there can't be any.
Likewise they can't do a TV series, animated series or anything like that.

What was TPM's opening weekend? 65 M$. This was in 1999 and it was possibly one of the most hyped films of the decade.
What was the previous May record? The Lost World: JP2 with 72 M$ from 1997. So TPM didn't beat the previous record. Not totally fair as TPM didn't open on a Friday.
In 1999 you also had Toy Story 2 with an opening of 57 M$ and Austin Powers 2 with about 54 M$.

As for LotR, RotK did 377 M$ domestic and TPM did 431 M$. Bigger yes but not by a huge amount.
Spiderman made over 400 M$ in 2002 and Shrek 2 passed TPM in 2004. The LotR films did about what both AotC and RotS did. And RotS was hyped as the FINAL SW film etc.

As for January, that month has commonly been the dumping grounds for films.

If you had checked the opening weekends then you should be aware that November is not December. Plenty of films have opened big in November. The Hunger Games, Twilight, Harry Potter.
Biggest opening weekend in Nov: 158 M$.
Biggest opening weekend in Dec: 84 M$.

Look at the list of top-grossing weekends, you have April, May, July and November as the months were many films open big.
What is the highest opening weekend in September? 42 M$.

November is month that many films aim for because you can have a big opening and then you get a small holiday boost in Dec.

[/QUOTE]

This is a bit odd coming from someone who argued that "most of the rest of the world would agree Star Wars is something special. "
And here you say you don't care about foreign BO.
You apparently don't know that much about it either as then you would have known that while SW have done well in many countries, a number of other films have done better.

SW have traditionally done better domestic than over-seas compared with other big franchises like HP, LotR, Bond or mega big films like Titanic and Avatar. Or even films like Transformers. Transformers 3 made more money world wide, unadjusted, than any of the PT films.

The PT films have been 45% dom/55% over-seas. While Bond, HP, LotR are more like 30%/70%.
The Marvel films and the Dark Knight are closer and they make about 40%/60%.

Bye for now.
Old Stoneface

 

Furious 7 ends up making more than 3/4 of its money outside the U.S. F7 gets to burn through Chinese theaters for a bit longer, as AOU is not opening there for another 10 days or so.

Yes, the box office has changed a bit since 2005, but there's no evidence that Star Wars has the kind of brand appeal abroad that would ensure $1 billion or more in foreign revenue. I'd believe $600. I'd believe $700.

"If F7 can do it, so can Star Wars" doesn't really cut it as an argument. As if audiences can't tell the difference between a car chase movie and a space opera.