ST Episode VII Box Office Discussion

Right. But if Transformers 4 and Iron Man 3 can crack $1b, why can't SW? Those are fairer comparisons.

 

so, not really a bigger audience, and the final weekend tally is going to be about the same as Avengers1.

I'm betting too we'll see a bigger drop next weekend, 60% or more and a bigger 3d weekend drop when Mad Max and Pitch Perfect 2 open.

If Avengers 2 had a 25% higher opening day than Furious 7 and that holds for its total domestic gross, the AOU U.S. total would be $437 million.

 

Yes. Again. But i doubt you had Furious in for those numbers a week before it opened. Because car chase movies always do big? I can just go back in this thread and find predictions amongst posters here, far below what this movie seems to be making now. Not saying you did though. But it opens up for an unpredictable market, which can offer a lot of surprises. What we don't see, or very seldom observe now, is big budget movies that flop in a massive way, and loose a lot of money. Disney had a bad year with John Carter and Lone Ranger, as an example. Don´t´ think they will risk moves like that now. Now they have Marvel, Pixar, Lucasfilm and do live action versions of their animated classics. It will not go horrible wrong.

 

People will be very shocked if AOU makes less than $550 million domestically and will be absolutely if it dares make less than $500 million. That would be VERY interesting to see what the reaction will be!

 

I think we really shouldn't be judging SW's foreign appeal seeing that it's been a solid decade since the series has even been in theaters in a significant manner, domestic or overseas. The film market has significantly changed in those years, so we really can't say whether or not TFA is going to succeed internationally. I'd say this is where the ball falls into the hands of the marketing team, and as to whether they can draw in foreign audiences to watch TFA in December.

As to the film's domestic audience, this is Star Wars we're talking about. PT or no PT, fans are going to watch it opening day, rewatch it opening weekend, pre-order every YA Novel to be released for the next three months, buy every action figure, and maybe stop short at funding EA from making another Battlefront game every year for the next 10 years. And if Marvel can seem "not nerdy" with the right amount of explosions and marketing than certainly TFA can.

 

I think the force awakens may hurt. I saw the avengers age of ultron, great film btw, but no Star Wars trailer???

 

I've never propped up RT or Oscars as the final measure of a film. For me, endurance and timelessness is a much better metric. And as far as I see it, the PT just didn't stick in the broader cultural landscape.

 

TFA will do $650 - 750 mill domestic. I can't even fathom how it could not, barring it being a total piece of ****. SW is multi-generational now, everywhere in our culture. . . it is its own genre at this point and Geekdom is peaking nowadays in general (Comic-cons are like the freakin' Olympics). Factor in female lead, diverse cast, big three...as Goofy would say, "Garsh!"

 

That's biased. It is not better than the lotr trilogy. Maybe if you add the PT yes. But no I'd consider the middle earth saga equal to Star Wars saga. But is say lotr is a bit more consistent but the again it's based on already established works as in the books. Where as star wars just sprung up from some dudes imagination so that's pretty impressive.

Really they can't be compared there both equally great.

 

I think to say that I don't know the foreign market -- which I fully admitted I don't know it as well now as I did 10-15 years ago -- and then start talking about what movies were making 10 years ago? Again, are you serious? That's some pretty terrible logic and pretty terrible argumentation there. As I said, I DO know what TPM made in China, which was $3.2 million. And I DO know that was the ALL-TIME U.S. box office record for a film in China. And now movies are making $300M+ in China. So again, huh? You are seriously telling me that you're arguing what TFA is going to make based on the prequels and their foreign box office percentages and splits and dollar figures? I'm sorry, that's laughable. I don't even think I need to bother responding to that. It's so ridiculous on the surface it can be skimmed over and ignored.

As for Bond, Bond isn't bigger in the U.K. and never has been. Bond has never been bigger anywhere than Star Wars, except for before Star Wars existed. Bond has always done well but not that well, and only one film in the entire franchise of 20+ movies has been amazing at the box office and that was Skyfall.

TFA is a lock for $1 billion at foreign box offices, that shouldn't even be in question. A bigger question is whether it can get to $1.5 billion and thus a combined $2+ billion total worldwide haul. I am not sure about that, nobody is, we'll have to see when the movie comes out. That will depend on China, Japan, Europe, etc. Lots of factors there.

I agree that in comparison to many franchises, it's clear Star Wars has never had the type of splits between domestic and foreign box offices as many franchises but I think you're looking at it one-sided, too. "Star Wars just isn't big in those places, it's kind of big, but not really." No, wrong. It's just ENORMOUS / the biggest thing ever in the U.S. and in the other countries it's more like a regular big blockbuster. Not necessarily the biggest hit of the year, let alone the biggest hit of a several year period, in many other countries. That's fully true. That doesn't mean that a new Star Wars movie can't build upon the success of the prequels as the original trilogy didn't even have much of a chance in foreign markets. A lot of those markets have been emerging over the past 20 years and the prequels were released at a time when it was only becoming big right around then to have movies beat their U.S. totals in foreign markets with regularity. It was still uncommon in 1995, and very common by 2000.

I'm certainly not bothered if someone thinks TFA is going to make only $28.50 when it comes out, because none of what we think really matters. The movie will make whatever it makes and that'll be that. I just don't think it's at all accurate to say that Star Wars is BELOW the popularity of any other franchise. I think that's completely wrong. The LOTR movies were excellent films and very highly regarded, and performed incredibly well worldwide, but they're not more popular than Star Wars. More people still are die-hard SW fans than die-hard LOTR fans and I think that's pretty damn clear from the rather pathetic opening numbers of the LOTR movies. Nobody was waiting in line for 24 hours or 24 days for those movies. Their fans are pretty much our fans. Star Wars fans love the Marvel movies and the LOTR movies. That franchise has few of their own true fans. At least Marvel movies actually have Marvel fans, people like me even who grew up collecting the comics and comic book cards and all of that and have remained dedicated to that universe. About as close as it gets with an LOTR "fan" is one of the 29 people on their forum or whatever who read the books as a teenager. Even then, it's not the type of rabid fan base that we have. The movies succeeded to such a great extent because they are GREAT movies, highly imaginative, and all three of the LOTR films so well done.

I'm failing to see the logic used about opening weekends by month, either. It sounds a lot like, "Well no human is ever going to live until 150 years old because it has never happened before." So what? That has literally nothing to do with anything. It will happen or not happen because of scientific advancements in the field and in all likelihood it will be commonplace in the next 30-100 years. So to say, "Well no movie in December has made $100 million opening weekend but in November they have, so it's possible in November. It's not possible in December." Wanna bet? Because I would bet you good money that TFA BLOWS AWAY the December opening record by at least 100%. It would be almost impossible to imagine TFA doesn't hit $170 million opening weekend. We have one of the biggest die-hard fan bases in the world and opening weekend records aren't about the general public, they're about the fans who won't wait. The overall success of a movie is about 80% general public at least, but the opening day and opening weekend records are driven by the fans. It's why a big movie like Avatar does amazingly well overall, but doesn't open that strongly -- no fans yet.

Any argument that something hasn't happened yet and therefore isn't possible is pretty suspect, but especially when we all know that movies like Iron Man 3, Avengers, and Avengers 2 all made $170M+ opening weekend so it's clearly quite possible, it just hasn't ever happened that a movie as big as those films or as big as Star Wars has opened in December. Is it possible TFA "only" makes $130 million opening weekend? Sure, that's definitely possible. But no matter how you cut it, it's going to blow past $100M without any problems.

PS: There's no such thing as "nerdy" anymore with Star Wars, Marvel, LOTR, or even Star Trek. I remember when the prequels came out, there was still some of that notion in my high school, I got called a nerd for loving Star Wars, but it wasn't a HUGE deal. It was totally cool with all of the guys, even the jocks, but the girls were still kind of weirded out by it overall. Now, my girlfriend's entire friend group (she's a decade younger than me, so her friend group was only in high school a few years ago) dressed up as the LOTR characters for the opening of the films, she loves Star Wars, and suddenly it has become cool for everyone from Megan Fox to the Victoria's Secret models to wear Star Wars t-shirts. That is no longer a factor in popularity -- it's now "cool" to like geek stuff. I have no idea why, or what the heck changed so much in such a small period of time, but I think it's pretty awesome. I even noticed this before my girlfriend where girls more and more were like, "Star Wars is cool!" I don't know exactly what the cultural shift was but I would credit Marvel a lot for that as well.

 

So why, my friend, bother trying to refute there's been a bias against Star Wars by the establishment then? Either Star Wars is worth more than (in technical terms) the awards/accolades it's achieved or it isn't? The thing is, when you try and suggest (as you did) that awards are given solely on merit, then that is reflective of the originals too. To believe (not aimed at you specifically) that there is NOT an inherent bias in the industry, for and against certain types of films, directors and actors is incredibly naive IMO. You're so eager to discredit the prequels that I think you've used a flawed argument re. awards. which by default undermines the OT too.

On your other point... that we are still talking about these films 16 years after the first one was released also reflects their "endurance and timelessness"... wether one likes them or not. That they still sell by the shed load, on whatever new format they are released on, and that various associated merchandise still occupies space on many retailers shelves also supports their longevity. Again, one can't have it both ways. These films have not, like many of their contemporaries, disappeared from consciousness or the marketplace. Indeed, they seem to thrive... especially given the clamour for more SW content/product.

 

Speaking from ignorance. You make it sound as though the rest of the world is in complete dark regarding the developments of the film saga, and the franchise as a whole. Well, as a north European, I can say with confidence that this is, in fact, NOT the case.
I'd argue Star Wars is just as popular - if not MORE so - "overseas", as it is in the United States.

 

China has grown enormously as a Movie market yes. But that doesn't mean EVERY country have grown as much.
It is terrible logic to look at past events, how well movies have done in the recent past and from that try to extrapolate some idea about what will happen? Yeah right.
AotC made 30 M$ in France in 2002, is it likely that TFA does 300 M$ there?

TFA will do much better in China than any PT movie unless the powers that be decide to ban the film. How much more? That is up in the air, could it do Transformers 4 numbers? Possible.
Could it do Hobbit 3 numbers? Again possible.
In China a films number of theaters/screens isn't just tied to how well it does at the BO.
Some films that do extremely well can still loose screens very rapidly and decrease to potential gross.

But China is more the exception and not the norm, the BO market in Europe hasn't changed that much over the last ten years. Russia's movie market have grown considerably but that is in part counter balanced by the much weaker Ruble.

WRONG!
Die another day beat AotC at the BO in 2002.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/uk/yearly/?yr=2002&p=.htm

RotS made about 40M£ in 2005 and Casino Royale did about 50 M£ in 2006.
http://www.cinemauk.org.uk/facts-and-figures/admissions/uk-cinema-top-ten-films-2004-2014/

And Skyfall made more over 100 M£, more than twice that of RotS.

Umm AotC wasn't the biggest film of the year in 2002 domestic, it wasn't even no 2.
RotS was no one for the year in 2005 domestic but not world-wide.
RotS made about 380M$ in 2005, very good indeed but year after that, Pirates 2 made 420 M$.

The first three Spiderman film made about 1,1 B$ combined at the domestic BO.
The PT made about the same amount. And the three LotR films did about 1 B$ total.

So the PT were certainly very big but other series are about as big.

Some markets have grown a lot, others not so much.

Really?
You yourself already made the point that the LotR films are three hours long and thus have a reduced amount of screenings and now the openings are "pathetic"?
And all three LotR set opening weekend record for December three years in a row.
This ties back to my overall point of December, you have not had mega huge openings in this month despite big and popular films opening.
Aside from LotR, you have the first Narnia film, which did quite well, Sherlock Holmes, which also did quite well, I am Legend, Avatar etc. Thus far there have not been any movie with over 100 M$ opening weekend. You think that is an irrelevant factor and doesn't mean anything, I think it is a factor to consider.

Nobody was waiting in line? First did you survey all theaters? and second and more importantly, the movies opened in December, that month tends to be a bit colder than May.

But lets compare opening and total gross. FotR had an opening of 47 M$, AotC had 80 M$ opening. And yet FotR made more money domestic than AotC.

And LotR have few of their own true fans? Really? How about the fans of the book that have been around for over 50 years and sold very well all over the world.
Take Harry Potter and Japan. AotC did about 78 M$ there in 2002, very good. But Harry Potter 2 did 142 M$. Now how could that be if all HP fans are also SW fans?
And Two Towers out-grossed AotC by about 30 M$, again how if all LotR fans are SW fans?

The LotR books have been big sellers for decades, you are kidding yourself if you think few people have read them.
But you are right in that the films did so much money and got such good reviews on their own merits and not that they were based on a popular book.

And trust me the Tolkien fan base can be plenty "rabid" and you think Lucas got roasted, that was nothing compared to what some of the book purists were doing to PJ even before the first film was even released.

The logic is basic science, study past events and historical patterns and try to make an educated guess about the future. Sure at times you have films that come from almost nowhere and does better at the BO than most thought, Like Titanic, Avatar and now Furious 7.

But even so there are also some real factors at play, such as numbers of screens. A film can't have an opening day of 1 billion dollars because the number of screens is not that high.
Ticket prize, currency variations, those are also factors to consider.

It is not a question about impossible, it is how LIKELY it is. TFA MIGHT have an opening weekend of 10 M$. But that is extremely unlikely.

That it will break opening weekend record is very likely unless advance word of month is ungodly bad.
By how much is an open question. I simply don't think it will increase as much as you think it will. Nothing more, nothing less.

I remember back in 1999 and some SW fans said it was "Locked" that TPM would beat Titanic, it didn't. In 2002, many SW fans said it was "Locked" that AotC would beat Spiderman, it didn't.

And yet, TPM didn't break opening weekend record, neither did AotC, even RotS couldn't beat Spiderman's opening weekend record. Again they didn't open on a Friday so the comparison isn't totally fair.
If we look at opening day then TPM and RotS both set a new record but AotC did not.

And if the fan base is so big and die hard, why did AotC drop by almost 30% domestic and world wide in 2002?
None of the LotR dropped in BO, the second HP film dropped by about 18%, the second Spiderman dropped by about 7%.

And with such a big fan base, why did TPM 3D make less money than the Beauty and the Beast 3D rerelease?

[/QUOTE]

Well I was around when the OT first came out and there was nothing "nerdy" about seeing or liking SW back then. My parents saw them and loved them and my dad was over 50 back then.
Even my grandparents saw the first film and liked it.
ANH was a film that a lot of people saw and many of them liked it. Not all, I know some friends of mine in school that saw it but didn't like it. One guy liked the chess scene, nothing more.

I think the "nerd" thing came in the 80's.

In closing, I think overall that the summer blockbusters have gotten more interesting and a bit better in recent years compared with mid 90's. Sure you have the occasional Transformers 3, but back in the 90's you had Godzilla, Twister, Batman and Robin, Armageddon, Wild wild west.

The Bond films Die another day and Tomorrow never dies compared with Casino Royale and Skyfall? A huge increase in quality.

Now is a great time to be a movie fan.

Bye
Blackboard Monitor

 

Twitter says that AOU may have dropped 30% from Friday to Saturday - which means it will have to clear more than $50 million on Sunday to reach $200 million. So whoever in this thread predicted AOU wasn't going to make it to $200 million was right on target.

I took my son and one of his friends yesterday, and I can tell you that it was a blur of bombastic nonsense strung together with a few amusing Whedon style quips. I'm hopeful that TFA will be much better.

But yes - I'd say that less than $500 million in the U.S. for AOU is looking about right. TFA definitely has a shot at being the top grossing movie in the U.S. in 2015.

 

Avengers 1 most definitely did what it did due to repeat viewings. That was exactly what happened with TPM also. Avengers 2 won't get that luxury. Make over $500 million domestically? Absolutely! But we will see the effect of having all action and no depth (I haven't seen it but this is the impression I get when reading reviews). It's like a holdover movie until the Avengers go against Thanos.

By the way, ironically it was me who said AOU might struggle to reach $200 million. I still think it will pass $500 million easily and pass $1.5 billion worldwide easily as well.

 

way to resist the groupthink on this movie. I don't see it having such good legs myself, but I would have been really disappointed by the quality of AOU if I'd expected more or cared at all. It's really tedious.

 

$187 million opening for AOU. WAY below anyone's expectations!!!!

 

All you need is a a 60% plus drop next weekend and the domestic box office take of AOU will be closer to $400 million than $500 million. Increasingly good news for TFA's potential to become the top domestic hit of 2015.

 

Marvel is dying down, it seems. I never understood the hype for superheroes. I've watched a few, and not my cup of tea. I think with SW on the rise again, it'll take overbMarvel's spot as top franchise again.

 

LOL at anyone declaring the death of the MCU. AOU just snatched the 2nd biggest opening right behind The Avengers, as is on par for a sequel. And we really can't judge legs when we are literally only a week into international release and A FEW DAYS OUT FROM DOMESTIC RELEASE.

I'm not saying that TFA can't compete against it but honestly everyone's looking for an excuse to declare the MCU dead and forgotten.

 

You missed my point, PJ. My argument is that there is not an inherent bias in the movie industry towards fantasy films, like LOTR. In fact, before LOTR, there was a strong inherent bias against films of that nature, unless they were shiny, overly kid-friends or of the Disney formula. In that context, LOTR prevailed amongst critics DESPITE significant bias among they community against such films.

The Star Wars PT was therefore not at any more of a disadvantage among critics than LOTR was. And the latter did much better.

That tells me that the LOTR films were treated by critics on what they perceived were it's merits. I think the films struck an artistic and entertainment chord with that that most big fantasy or popular science fiction films didn't. And so they voted against their anti-fantasy preconceptions. And if the cultural impact of those films is anything to go by, they were right. The One Ring, Frodo, Gandalf, Gollum, Mordor. These are all part of the public consciousness.

The PT, in contrast, wasn't able to push back against those preconceptions. And so, in my view, it has had less of a cultural impact. And so, in my view, it has been far less successful than the OT.

 

Don't forget the $626 million worldwide of AOU in only 12 days. But you really can get an early indication of legs from the Friday to Saturday change. A lot of movies get bumps from Friday to Saturday. Front-loaded movies don't get big bumps, but really front-loaded movies with potentially bad legs get steep drops from opening Friday to opening Saturday. And that's exactly what happened here. It dropped 32% Friday to Saturday.

So, best guess there's going to be a fairly steep drop next weekend.

 

I'd have to agree, TFA does look to promising, it's true what one poster said its seems as if they're trying way too hard to include th agenda. However avengers poor performance can be a good sign for TFA

 

I agree the political agenda makes disney seem desperate, but i feel TFA will make more than avengers 2

 

Not desperate, but I think they should leave the political business out of the saga or any dim for that matter. Avengers AOU was a great film, but like someone else said MCU films are about to decline.