ST Episode VII Box Office Discussion

Good Brad Bird can get back to doing something i care about that by that I mean Incredibles 2, I have waited 10 years while Disney crapped out crappy Cars sequels which granted sell toys.

 

It probably should and if it doesn't then things will have the perception of having really gone wrong. The trick is of course that it is far "easier" to make close to or be above 1B worldwide due to the continuing expansion of the international markets.

At the same time to make that extra push into the new higher upper tier is probably going to be more difficult due to the present state of the NA box office.

Furious 7 of course has done extremely well to say the least but at this stage it's not at 350M domestic yet but it's international is outstanding. It's 250M past Avengers and almost 400M past AOU.

Of the 21 movies past 1B only 6 are pre-2009 and only 3 are pre-2000.

Only 5 movies from pre-2000 are in the top 50 worldwide.

So if Star Wars can keep it's domestic strength and take advantage of the international markets (in ways that weren't even possible with ROTS in 2005) then they should do well.

ROTS was only able to get 20M from Russia and China in 2005. Iron Man got 25M in 2008, Iron Man 2 got 16M in 2010 but after the trade agreements between coutries Iron Man 3 made 165M in 2013.

2011 Captain America wasn't even in China and made 8M in Russia. In 2014 it got 130M.

It should be like TPM was by far. Though it's likely it won't be by anywhere near that amount as TPM was to ANH. To do that it'd have to match Titanic's 1997 run in straight up dollars.

Seems likely.

We'll learn a lot more by then. Some people they thought more than they did and didn't like that they didn't.

Numbers get bigger over time. You have to accept the numbers at the time. Domestically Titanic was the only thing bigger than TPM at the time. Only 5 films have passed it since 1999.

Was great for the audience though.

Not by anyone who actually looked at the numbers.

Of course it is. It's just that the few can't accept the majority view.

 

I'm not that interested in universal appeal upon release. A lot of people, including myself, loved TPM when it first came out. Fast forward several years, and many people feel differently about it.

TFA needs to stand the test of time, not merely the test of hype. TPM failed here.

Of course not totally universally. There are always exceptions to the rule. And while we may argue whether ANH or TESB is the more universally beloved film, there is no question that TPM failed to make that mark. TFA has the opportunity to best that film in this area as well.

I'm not comparing The Avengers to TPM; I'm comparing TPM to a better-made version of TPM.

Once the hype had died down, TPM wasn't that great a film. Having interesting, more relatable characters and a story that wasn't filled with boring politics or characters waiting for things to happen on Tatooine or Coruscant would've helped out at the box office.

Critics have their place of importance, but it all boils down to how the general audience reacts to the film long-term. Does it stay with them, or is it forgettable? Is it exciting or boring? Etc.

I imagine I'd feel about the same way you do with TPM.

Okay. That makes no sense...

TPM failed me and many others, not because it wasn't a sequel to the OT but because it was a poorly-written, poorly-directed, poorly-acted film with bland characters, a plot that doesn't make a lot of sense (Palpatine's plan to create a crisis on Naboo), too many boring scenes (esp. Naboo and Coruscant), non-threatening villains and henchmen (Trade Federation and battle droids) and a climax bloated with 4 intertwining sequences.

It was initially "great" because of the hype, but it doesn't stand the test of time. TFA seeks to right what the film did wrong. I believe they will succeed. I have faith in J.J. Abrams.

Notice how I said "really".

TESB's initial "problems" were settled long-term as it became the best of the bunch in many fans' eyes. ROTJ and the SE definitely had their problems, but it's astonishing not to recognize how badly things got with TPM by comparison, however you personally feel about it. A lot of people like or love TPM while acknowledging that it was poorly made and a big disappointment to the fanbase.

Okay.

I'm not going to force myself to like something I don't genuinely enjoy.

 

I think you can justify it in hindsight already. $45 million in the US and $109 million worldwide in its debut, I'm betting it ends up making a lot of money.

Okay, but a few points:
1) The figures for Avatar and Titanic BOTH include a re-release.
2) The re-releases of SW being such successes show its cultural significance, not many movies could do that.
3) To pretend inflation doesn't matter in movie sales is silly. That's like saying my grandpa is pathetic for not making the same salary I do when he was young, when for the time he made a lot more.

 

Age of Ultron has passed the 1 billion mark. It certainly isn't going to reach the 623 mil domestic but it's at 375 domestic now so I'm thinking 420ish (passing Iron Man 3, making it #2 on MCU domestic) It's international numbers are pretty crushing, I think it may get close to the 1.5 billion and/or Furious 7's 1.4 billion. (it's at 1.1 billion now). What does this mean for Star Wars? Just guessing, I think it could pass AoU domestic and international. let's all say Furious 7, Age of Ultron and Force Awakens when all the money is counted will probably all land in the same 1.3-1.5 range. And Disney is going to be verrrry happy since two of those movies are theirs.

Random box office aside that may be tangentially related to this discussion: Pitch Perfect 2, a sequel, in a less than a week has almost equaled the worldwide total of the original Pitch Perfect. What does that have to do with Star Wars? Ehhhh.... sequel done make more money happy times?

 

The power of girls in 2015.

If TFA does end up doing monster box office, I guarantee you that one of the big reasons will be Daisy (and Gwendoline & Carrie in their supporting roles).

 

I feel like it had a lot to do with the fact it was a new IP with Pitch Perfect. People liked it, watched it with their friends they liked. The 2nd movie had a good following before it released. That and people realized that Kendrick is actually really talented and not just the hyper active friend from twilight.

 

Regarding the fourth Mad Max...

We've touched on its rating (R) and its budget ($150) in relation to its ongoing box office grosses...but I think what also needs to be said is that it's practically a miracle we got such a well crafted, amazing, and critically praised film. This project basically went through hell to get made, and projects like that typically end up a complete disaster. We're talking about a project that began well over a decade ago, started production around 2011/2012, had multiple startups and shutdowns, changed locations on opposites sides of the world (weather conditions in Australia forced production to move Namibia, with scores of vehicles, props, and sets being shipped to Africa), severe chemistry relationships with cast and crew, various reshoots, etc. etc. etc.

Take all that into consideration, and I find the $150 million budget relatively cheap (they did also receive lots of tax breaks). I honestly can't express how content I am that this film turned out so well. Kudos to all involve, and hopefully good word of mouth here in the US, and foreign intakes, will push this film's box office totals; it certainly deserves it.

 

Mad Max had a VERY minor drop of 57% Sunday into Monday and is already charting above PP2. I think it should safely makes its budget back in the US with all the rest of the world basically all net profit.

I think TFA will open very very strong. I am thinking 170 million opening weekend. And it will have very solid legs if it is good (not much competition). If it turns out to be great, It WILL become one of those cultural Phenom movies that everyone feels they have to see like Avatar, Titantic, The Avengers, Star War: ANH, and to a slightly lessor extent The Dark Knight. If it turn out to be great (80+ on meta, 95+ RT) 500 million is the basement.

 

I really hope films like this and The Force Awakens help inspire Hollywood to focus more on practical effects overall and be wiser with their use of CGI.

 

Age of Ultron now sits at almost $ 1.2 bill globally, foreign gross of that is 770, $ 156,3 mill first 6 days in China as we speak.
Pretty sure it will reach $ 1. 5 bill worldwide at its finished run then.

I stil think TFA will match that. But film has to be quality to go further, up to about $ 1.6, 8 maybe, if the hype is real. Without analyzing it in detail, i suspect about $ 600 domestic now, and close to a billion worldwide. Most posters here have upped their tally for the domestic gross lately, and even if it would earn like $ 700, 800 at the foreign market it will not be categorized as a modest hit, as someone tried to put it at the forum. The definition of that, a foreign box office success, probably is correct in terms of somewhere between what Hollywood itself would see as profitable, and the "only sky is the limit" heights we set ourselves for a Star Wars movie, as something that should always be seen as a larger than life franchise. I am realistic too. But i see what i see, and the market is really gearing up for this film worldwide too. I would add to that with also the angle that outside the US, summer box office was never a big thing, before maybe like the late 90s, People in Europe have a great tradition for going to he movies in the cold seasons, so i think the december date would be seen as an advantage in some of those markets.

 

As someone in a 'foreign market' I was around 8 years old when Star Wars (OK, New Hope) was released where I live in London, and it was phenomenally successful - kids went to see it multiple times, we all bought the toys and went crazy for it (and the rest of the OT). And due to Alec Guinness and half the cast having British accents, and being made just outside London, we all thought it was a British film. Even the album I had of the original music had 'London Philharmonic Orchestra' on the cover!! I should point out that prior to seeing Star Wars, nobody ever thought of tie-in toys or seeing a film at the cinema more than once, but we went nuts for star wars, cast were on lots of TV programmes, it was in the news (I guess it was easy to get interviews as many were UK based). The response to the PT was much more subdued, partially because the blockbuster market had changed by then -but the cultural impact of the original movie in the UK (from someone who was there!) Was massive

 

And now Star Wars in many ways have returned to the UK, with Pinewood. Next Celebration is in London too. First time i went to a convention was in London, late 80s. Bought some Bantha Tracks i remember. And Forbidden Planet was like the empire of dreams in London. Two of the main characters trio of the ST is from UK! Did i mention that i am a bit of an anglophile?

 

These are the fundamental questions

1. Can Star Wars still build to the level of hype it enjoyed right before TPM opened in May 1999? (adjusted domestic gross $733 million)
2. How much better can Star Wars do outside the U.S. than TPM and ROTS ($550/$450 million ish).
3. How well can Star Wars do in the December-January time frame?

Here's how I answer them.

1. I do not think Star Wars enjoys the kind of universal brand appeal and same level of positive brand identity it enjoyed from 1977-1983, or the year of the SEs or in the hype leading up to the release of TPM. The most important element is far less market penetration and appeal among today's children. Audiences for the cable tv properties hasn't been huge (the entertainment market for today's kids is extremely fragmented) and the quality of those properties has been meh.

On the other hand, the marketing for TFA has been quite good. The spending is going to be huge. Disney will spare no expense to put people into theaters. They're committed to the brand.

The way I work that out is that in the U.S. TFA is going to land at about 75% TPM strength. It's an arbitrary number intended to reflect ++ for heavy marketing and - for lack of appeal for today's kids and overall somewhat venerable, creaky status of the brand.

If it hits at 75% TPM strength, it should have no problem making at least $550, maybe $600 million in the U.S. It will do, in my opinion, no worse than 4th biggest domestic hit of all time in nominal dollars, and will possibly beat out the domestic total of Avengers 1.

2. I do not think Star Wars has the kind of brand awareness around the world that it has always enjoyed in the U.S. I know that's not true of some countries like Japan, UK, Australia where the prequels did very well. That's not intended as an exhaustive list of places where Star Wars is beloved. I do not however feel that Star Wars is an established brand in China, and I believe that is one very important market where Star Wars will likely be able to build an audience over the course of 2-3 films, but may not necessarily break any records its first time out in that market. Very few brands have cracked the $700 million box office level outside the U.S. Even fewer have cracked the $800 million level. I question whether Star Wars can launch on its first film with the same level of box office that Disney spent 3 films building for its Marvel/Iron Man/RDJ brand.

3. The December timeslot remains problematic. If the movie is good, it will have strong legs, but it will start from a weekend total much lower than the records set by the Avengers franchise. Outside of Titanic and Avatar, the best performing movie in roughly that slot in recent years is American Sniper, which made $350 million in the U.S.

Star Wars will make very good money for three consecutive weekends: December 18, X mas weekend and New Year's weekend. The second and third weekends will add extra box office due to holidays, although X Mas Eve is a very poor day for box office.

It's possible that if the movie is not absolutely fantastic, its box office will never completely recover from a lower December opening weekend, and the whole domestic box office will stall out at something below $500 million. Best case scenario with super great legs, the lower December opening weekend costs TFA nothing in domestic box office. Worst case scenario, it end up lopping $75-$100 million off what it might otherwise have earned in May.

 

Wait you're actually implying that the reason or one of the reasons MM is doing so well is because of its use of practical effects? I bet if you replace all the "practical" effects with a more traditional use of CGI and nothing changes. A good story is a good story and a good movie is a good movie.

 

Yeah, December is a double edged sword. If its not great or really good then it wont get the legs. Decent movies sucker people by being able to front load on Opening Weekend. But December u need the legs.

 

Who said anything about the story? I'm specifically talking about the practical effects.

 

Basement in the US is 400 million IMO. If it is pretty good I should have make 500 million. If it is amazing it could make 600 million.

Basement foreign is 650 million. I think it can do 800 if it is good. If it turns out to be great I think it will sniff 1 billion WW.

So WW min to me is 1.05 billion. Probable (because I think it will be good at worst) 1.3 billion. Max (if it is great) 1.6-8 billion.

 

Tomorrowland. No star power (Clooney has next to zero box office draw). Sci fi-ish. Bad reviews. And original content without a franchise brand.

This holiday weekend is going to be split between Pitch Perfect 2, Tomorrowland, Mad Max, Age of Ultron and Poltergeist. I'm putting Poltergeist in last place.

Is Tomorrowland this year's John Carter/Lone Ranger at the box office?

I'd put the odds on Minions to become the big family hit of the summer. It's going to beat out the Pixar movie.

 

I saw Tomorrowland yesterday, at the IMAX screen. I would bet this film would have real problems with identify with an audience. And what audience? Basically it was a real mess. Something like "too sexy for kids, to stupid for adults" again. Only, its not very sexy either. It was not bad, i really like Brad Bird, but he is not very good at composing action scenes for live action movies. There are glimpses of emotional connections with the characters, almost in "old school", nostalgic Hollywood context, but this is never being developed in a focused way unfortunately. Instead you get big, messy set pieces, which adds little substance to the characters. There is beauty though, and a lot of fun to look at. John Knoll and ILM being onboard, and the future city reminding me of Coruscant at times, the visual effects are good, but not breathtaking either. But that is more to due with a script that never opens up for something new, it just plays with a lot of old cliches about nostalgia sci fi.

Oh. There is a scene which Star Wars fans should either laugh at, or feel a bit awkward about. I don`t know how to put it. I would just say it includes a carbon freezed Han Solo....

Which puts me back to box-office topic, and its relevant to have it as a contender for a top 10 spot this year. But yeah, i think this is a tough sell, and will maybe have bad legs. This is the Memorial Weekend of 2015, where TFA should have been.....now it looks a bit like a lackluster weekend one with this film.

 

Don't forget Jurassic World

 

Not being in this slot hurts Star Wars most at the box office if it isn't inherently a great movie. TFA can't make the boatloads of opening weekend money on December 18 that it could have made now. It literally will have to have extraordinary legs to make the $500 million plus that a lot of people see as a floor for great success.

Titanic and Avatar are such extreme outliers that they have only limited use for comparison. Titanic only earned 8% of its original domestic total on opening weekend. Avatar earned 10%.

Return of the King probably is a much better example. High level of hype and anticipation. Great December opening weekend and stronger legs than most movies. It made 19% of its domestic box office on opening weekend.

If TFA hype gets it to a $120 million opening weekend and it has word of mouth like ROTK and earns 19% of its box office opening weekend like Return of the King, it could get to $625 million domestic.

If it's more like the first Hobbit movie - huge level of hype but not as strong word of mouth, it would be $120 million opening weekend but 28% of its box office earned opening weekend - with a $430 million domestic total.

The likelihood is that it falls somewhere between the disappointing Hobbit 1 and the hugely enjoyable but overlong ROTK. Between $500 million and $600 million still looks very reasonable.

 

More families will go for repeat viewings for Minions. JW will do good but I think Minions will be the family movie of the summer as well. Kids freaking love Minions.

 

I was surprised that the penguins of madagascar didn't do better, but Minions are on a whole other level. They hit the sweet spot that plugs directly into the pleasure center of a 6 year old's brain.

 

Jurassic World isn't being pitched or sold as a family film. Minions is.

Minions is going to mop up very well at the box office.

Word of mouth on Inside Out is really high, as well.