ST Episode VII Box Office Discussion

And kids don't love dinossaurs? I think is going to be very toe to toe between these two movies

 

December 18 isn't December 25. Kids are still in school that week. Sure, some folks jet out immediately on that Friday and Saturday, but a LOT do not. Not everyone goes on vacation and a lot of people have already done their shopping (except maybe college kids who don't care anyway).

But in the same post you said :
It literally will have to have extraordinary legs to make the $500 million plus

and

The likelihood is that it falls somewhere between the disappointing Hobbit 1 and the hugely enjoyable but overlong ROTK
and finally:
Between $500 million and $600 million still looks very reasonable.

So....

 

What kind of parent takes a 6 or 7 year old to see a movie about people getting chased and eaten by dinosaurs?

 

Mine took it for the 1st JP when I was 5 and I loved it, one of the best theater experience I've ever had.

 

Kids love dinosaurs but I think Minions will be more rewatchable for kids. The JW looks like there will be a lot more carnage but that is not what made the first one great and rewatchable. The first one built supense and was a intro to a new world. This one may have that but I don't think it will. Just a guess, that's all.

 

Sorry I didn't mean to confuse you. The point I made at the end of the post is the point I intended to make. Assuming an opening weekend above $100 million, the closer TFA comes to the appeal and word of mouth of a movie like ROTK, the more likely it will be to make it past $500 million. We know it will have advanced hype and interest on a level comparable to if not considerably better than ROTK. Also, ROTK opened on a Wed. ROTK's opening weekend with ticket price inflation plus the money drained away by the Wed. opening already brings us to a $100 million opening weekend. Add another $20 million if you think there's a level of hype that takes it past ROTK for a record-breaking $120 million opening December weekend.

 

*raises hand* Mine did. I was about 8 years old when the original JP came out. Saw it 7 times in theaters and countless times on home video. Also had all the toys.

And my parents rule.

 

I'm sorry.

I wasn't a child or a parent when the original JP came out, but I didn't and never would have considered taking my son to JP 3 even if it had been any good.

 

In the UK all the JP films are rated PG. I was eight when the first one came out. I was scared, but I loved it. A really sensitive kid probably wouldn't be able to have handled it, but I think parents know what their kids can handle.

 

Yes. But ROTK was over 10 years ago right. So we will rather have to compare it to the Hobbit films now. And we know this: In the US, Star Wars is a much bigger a brand than Tolkien, no question, not a single one. Also. The december weekend before christmas, have not really been tested before by a well known, big franchise. Only....The Hobbits. Not getting into the worldwide market now.

 

Yeah I don't think there's anything wrong with a child seeing a scary movie with a family audience rating, but it wouldn't be my first choice for younger preschool children, first and second graders. I'd choose Minions over theme park carnage. Jurassic World is even more problematic, since it looks a lot more like families visiting Sea World or Disney World being chased and eaten by dinosaurs. Jurassic Park is technically set in a theme park, but most of the scenes don't really evoke a kind of theme park atmosphere that kids are familiar with.

I don't think it hurts to make comparisons with a ten year old movie in the domestic market, which hasn't changed all that much except for general decline in attendance and the price differentiation that comes from more splitting of the audience between IMAX, 3D, and regular screens. But the 3D phenomenon is declining, making the situation more like it was when ROTK came out.

And yes, there's no question in my mind that Star Wars is bigger than Tolkien in the U.S.

 

Star Wars does have a MUCH bigger family draw than any LOTR movie ever will. So there's that to consider.

 

Yes. That's why I think TFA will have relatively strong legs through the holidays. December 18 is not a big family movie weekend, but the Christmas weekend and the New Year's weekend are very big. So, no mammoth opening weekend, but very slight drops over the following weekends if the movie is more than halfway decent. You'll have entire extended families all going out to see TFA together on December 25-27.
And you'll have younger people who insist on seeing it opening weekend going back to see it again with their extended families. No matter what the quality of this movie, it's going to be my father, me, my sons, my sister, her husband and kids packed into three cars driving through no matter how much ice and snow to see this at about 3 pm on December 25th. And we won't be the only ones.

 

TFA was originally suppose to open this weekend I bet you could slap at least $130 million on top of what tomorrow land takes & add 35% to it's 50% on rottentomatoes.......

 

Do a lot of people go to the movie theater on Christmas Day? Never really paid attention to that. I assume that both Christmas Eve and New Years Eve are pretty quiet at the theaters. Thing about the holidays is that the midweek BO pretty much equals the weekend BO (minus NYE and X-Mas Eve)

 

The 24th is usually quite weak, down from the days before, but the 25th and 26th see a significant bump. This time those two days fall on the weekend, which should make them the easily biggest days of the holiday period.

 

yes Christmas eve is typically a slow day at the movies

 

yha, most ****** movies do just as well as the good ones.

MODified: Disallowed Word

 

SW is probably bigger yes but no question?
In 2002 AotC and TTT were released and TTT outgrossed AotC by something like 30 M$.
RotS and RotK were not relased the same year but both were the last film in their trilogy and both made about the same money in the US. Around 380 M$.

FotR outsold AotC by a considerable margin on DVD in 2002.

Bye for now.
The Guarding Dark

 

Yup. You are right and the numbers don`t lie. I think i meant Star Wars being a bigger brand in the broader context. Not only by box office.
Back in the days of LOTR and the PT, i believe Star Wars did take a hit by the general reactions to especially AOTC, who obviously underperformed a bit, while everybody raved about Peter Jackson of course, and the "Ring" films took jumps at the box office for each film. ROTS made sure Star Wars was back on top, by narrow margin, but still think ROTS could have done about $ 50 mill more if it had not been so dark. But then again, the Hobbit films, none of them crossing $ 300 mill domestic, and it would not surprise me if TFA doubles that, reaching close to $ 600 mill.

Tomorrowland is dangerously close to be categorized as a minor flop. Only about $ 40 mill for the 4 day memorial weekend. Under $ 30 mill overseas. Not looking good for a $ 180 mill budgeted film. I did express my opinion on the film earlier in the thread. Disney have Pixar film Inside Out and Marvel`s Ant Man up next, so guess they will not worry to much. Inside Out looks like Pixar is back in the game big time, stellar reviews from the Cannes showings.

 

You say that, then I got to see Mad Max yesterday and there were parents who brought their 5-8 year old kids with them to see it.... If there was ever a movie I would not take my kids to, that would be it.

 

Taking into account toys, TV series, games etc then yes SW is a bigger brand than LotR.

First correction, the first Hobbit film did pass 300 M$ in the US, not by much but it did.
Second, the Dark Knight was plenty "dark" and yet that made over 500 M$ at the domestic BO.
Third, RotS made about 3 M$ more than RotK but adjusted for inflation, RotK sold more tickets.

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Yeah this is a very interesting year for BO and we haven't reach the half way mark yet.
Avengers 2 is doing well but it will drop from the first film and the drop will be bigger than the drop from Dark Knight to Dark Knight Rises.

TFA will almost certainly do better than the Hobbit films and I would be shocked if it does less world wide and totally shocked if it does less domestic.
But even a gross of "just" 1,1-1,2 B$ world wide might be seen as "disappointing" by some.

Bye for now.
Blackboard Monitor

 

Posting this here, sort of relevant for the box-office in China and worldwide marketing:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/star-wars-saga-shanghai-festival-797839

Anyone booked a flight to Shanghai?

 

Wow-worst Memorial Day box office since 2001 and the first time since 1994 that NO movie made $40 million. That's with the opening of the hyped Tomorrowland which had a HORRIBLE opening and now won't make $100 million AND only the 4th week of Age of Ultron.