ST Episode VII Box Office Discussion

Well I can't argue with that. When AOU was headed toward a $450-$455 million domestic intake, Lucasfilm must have been psyched that TFA had a real shot at being #1 for the year. Along comes JW which does what people thought AOU would do and it's like a big "D'oh!" moment for Lucasfilm (and Disney for that matter who was probably certain they'd have the top 2 movies of the year.)

 

I don't know anyone who really didn't like it and I only read one review who tore it apart.

 

So this weekend there is a big chance that a high profile comedy sequel, Ted 2 ( and a movie i have no interest in seeing), will end up at 3rd place at the box-office, with JW and Inside Out still delivering huge numbers. Not that Universal will complain, they have Ted 2, as well as Minions and JW, with Furious 7 and 50 Shades already making them "rich".

JW stands a good chance to claim the nr 1 spot domestic for 2015, no doubt, what nobody saw coming, is now becoming a reality. Disney would have thought they had every opportunity to end the year with the two most successful movies, but that is not going to happen now. Though the box -office is unpredictable at the moment, i can not really see any contenders except from TFA, to get into that top 3, for the year - now talking domestic - the last Hunger Games movie is a good bet for rounding out at $ 350 - 400, if its good. Still will not be able to fight for top 3. Although James Bond riding on a new wave of retro coolness and solid filmmaking craft, it has probably no chance to handle those kind of numbers in the US. Over 70% of the worldvide cum of Skyfall was international. I see Minions might open big, but from the reviews i have read, doubt it will have legs - nice numbers overseas though - similar to the Ice Age franchise. MI5 and Fantastic Four reboot, not going to happen. When you take a look at the schedule for the rest of the year, it seems much more predictable, than the first 6 months, with surprises like American Sniper and JW, and Furious 7 too, making much bigger impact than we thought.

 

Do the newer reviews of The Empire Strikes Back and Return of the Jedi have value?

-Roger Ebert on his 2005 review of the 1993 movie Groundhog Day

Sometimes the passage of time and moments of silence reveal different things than the immediate reactions and responses.

 

If Jurassic World ends up ahead of TFA in US domestic gross, I'll eat my hat.

There, I said it.

 

When discussing the perception of the film at the time of it's release, no contemporary reviews have no relevance.

 

I think i said something similar in this thread earlier - but then it was long before JW overperformed like it does. I still say, JW stands a good chance of being nr 1 - but there is realistic only one contender for that - TFA. You know any tasty hat models Xinau?

 

Be prepared to eat your hat potentially. Jurassic World will top $500 million domestically though I think $600 million is unlikely. That is a monster of a domestic haul, I don't care what anyone says. I think TFA will beat it but it is going to be a tight race, really and one where we won't know the true box office king of 2015 until well into 2016. Very similar to the BO for last year where it look like GOTG was going to be the box office champ but just got clipped by MockingJay Part 1....only to see both get passed by of all things American Sniper. Not bashing the movie, just saying nobody in the world thought that was going to be the BO champ for 2014....NOBODY! Therefore shocking BO yearly figures can happen. Would I be surprised if Jurassic World managed to stay on top for the year with some heavy hitters coming with THG: Mockingjay Part 2 and TFA coming? Nope. Surprised yes but not shock at all.

 

Jurassic World will already be at $500 million on Sunday... $600 is pretty much a forgone conclusion at this point. The question really is, is it closer to $620 million or $660.

 

The next week will say be the best indicator. Right now according to Box Office Mojo, it's made just over $436 million domestically. Add in another $9 million from tonight and it will be at $445 million heading into the weekend. I am expecting a massive drop off given it got a huge Father's Day bounce last weekend so let's say it drops 50% percent so add another $50 million this weekend. That will leave the total domestic box office at or just under $500 million heading into next week and the July 4th's weekend were it doesn't face much new competition unless you consider that mess called "Terminator Genisys" competition. That means Jurassic World if it came keep a strong audience going this next week will be the only game in town other then "Inside Out" until the second weekend in July when "Ant-Man" comes in.

 

My soul is prepared

As is my hat.

 

http://www.slashfilm.com/star-wars-...-episode-vii-box-office-predictions-and-more/

Excerpt from article today:
Vanity Fair did a whole spread on Star Wars: The Force Awakens, and it was fantastic. But if you want to see the characters in sketch form before they became realized on screen, check out StarWars7News.com for a snapshot of drawings featuring Han Solo, Poe Dameron and Finn.
With Jurassic World smashing box office records a couple weeks ago, Star Wars fans are wondering if The Force Awakenscan top the power of dinosaurs on the big screen. While there’s no predictions about the opening weekend numbers,Deadline reports that an analyst at Morgan Stanley is predicting that when all is said and done, Episode VII will pull in $1.95 billion at the box office, putting it just behind Avatar and Titanic in the all-time box office gross leaderboard. Frankly, I think Star Wars will smash all those records, but we’ll find out for sure in six months.
We already over analyzed the second teaser trailer for Star Wars: The Force Awakens, but now thanks to a caption from Star Wars Insider, people are over analyzing a single shot from the trailer. It concerns the shot of what appears to be Luke in the desert at night with R2-D2.
There it is a 2 billion dollar prediction wow!!

 

Avengers 13 days 373M

JW 13 days 437M

Is there any reason to think this will not get close to 700m?

Besides if it something this big suddenly dries up real quick and shows it has no "legs" then what chance does TFA have that simply by pure historical movie attendance at that time of year will have virtually no chance of that kind of opening?

 

I also think it will reach $ 700 M, at this pace. Seldom movies like this dry up that quick. There is very little competition ahead too, this is the big blockbuster of the summer, and it was released at a perfect time, going into july 4th weekend with a badly received Terminator franchise.

 

Possibly. If people expect that it's going to be top of the world box office like T2 was.

The last 2 made some good not great box office but if they go in expecting it to be something it was once in 4 tries they are likely going to be disappointed.

 

Terminator will make some good internationally where it is very popular but domestically TG is going to be a disaster which is a shame because the franchise has so much potential! They never bury the franchise for quite awhile like they did with Jurassic Park. MAYBE in 10-15 years they can revisit it if they totally start over. But even that seems in doubt thanks to the mess they just made. Alan Taylor might be a very good TV director (and his credits shows he is) but he should never be allowed to go near a feature movie again. Thor 2 was barely passable and Terminator Genisys looks to be worse then the previous 2.

So Inside Out beat JW at the box office last night. JW still made just under $9 million so it will be interesting if it can get $500 million by Sunday. My guess is no. It will have to make $55 million this weekend and I think it's going to come under that. It will be at $500 million by the middle of next week though. Just a incredible haul!

 

If that happens, it will make Jurassic World, in adjusted dollars and in nominal dollars, the most successful movie sequel in the U.S. since The Phantom Menace.

 

Predictions for Terminator's opening?: I say $50 million. Too many other things at the box office that are still making money.

This weekend? I think it's going to be one of the closest weekends in history with Ted 2 opening and both IO and JW pulling in good numbers. I actually predict that all 3 will be in the low to mid $50's.

 

Just threw a few bucks at Pixar.

Believe the hype.

 

I'm not sure about the "potential" as Terminator is basically a one trick pony. JC effectively re-made a better more polished version withT2, but 3 and 5 show that all they can do is keep re-making the same film with a slight twist (Hollywood at its worst). The only one that tried to progress the narrative was Terminator Salvation... and look how well that turned out.

 

Right now early numbers have Ted 2 with a $45 million opening, Inside Out around $47, and Jurassic World taking the weekend with $50 million,,, still very early but that's how the Friday numbers are playing out. So as it stands JW would be sitting at $495-$500 on Sunday, easily passing $500 million by Monday. After Thursday it should be sitting at $520ish with the July 4th weekend... should easily make another $30-35 million.

 

TFA has little competition for the early months of 2016, until Batman vs Superman.

 

Related article...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-33283693

 

Looks like Inside Out might take the weekend. Deadline's got early morning Saturday numbers/analysis that has both films getting right around 50 mil this weekend, it'll be a matter of the actuals on Monday probably deciding it. But as of today, looks like Inside Out's up by a million or so.

Ted 2 is guaranteed 3rd.

(Mad Max still hanging on in the top 10, too)

 

Loved that inflation-adjusted list of global opening weekends. It's critical to get that kind of insight to know how recent box office landmarks compare with past. Harry Potter Deathly Hallows 2 - really a benchmark for understanding global anticipation for a new movie.

And also Spider-Man 3. Perfect example for high levels of anticipation and global marketing can trump an awful movie. It can only happen for sequels though. Thus Tomorrowland and John Carter.