Speculation Episode VII Box Office

I know it's 2.5 years away, but how much money do you think Episode VII will make at the BO?

Domestically: 400 million
Foreign: 600 million

So around 1 billion.

 

It depends on how good it is. If they can pull out an Avengers/TDKR-quality movie, and get the level of positive buzz those two movies had, I would expect it to pass the 600 million mark domestically, and grab another 800 mil in the foreign markets.

If it is perceived to be little more than another round of Star Wars prequels, then I would think the short side of 1 billion world wide souls be more likely.

Granted, it's pure speculation, but with Disney behind the wheel, I feel like Star Wars 7 will be much more similar to something like The Avengers than the Prequels.

 

I think we can expect more advertising dollars and a far wider-release than the prequels (4,000+ theaters) plus 3D and IMAX.

 

I couldn't care less. I won't be getting a royalty check as far as I know. As long as I get my money's worth for a fun 2-ish hours of entertainment, I'm good.

 

You should care a little bit..... if you want to get two more hours of entertainment a few years later...

 

Obviously 3D/IMAX will boost revenue if they go down that road, but I don't think this movie will have the same hype that TPM had. TPM's massive gross was because of how long after the OT it was and the love which so many had for the OT, tonnes of people went to see it simply to gaze upon a new Star Wars movie.

But because of the divided opinion the PT creates, and the fact it is often mocked by critics and other mediums, people are likely to be much more wary of rushing to msee a new Star Wars movie before they have had feedback about it or read the reviews of it.

Avengers I think wasn't massively hyped, but due to the popularity of the spin-off movies and the fact it received a lot of positive both from critics & those who watched it. The Dark knight Rises was probably more hyped-up given the success and acclaim of TDK, but it failed to match Avengers' Box Office sales despite the favourable reviews it got. That I think was down to divided viewer opinion.

 

For those of us who express our fandom on a daily basis the prequel releases may seem very close, but I think the general public has had plenty of time to breath... and will be ready for more Star Wars, regardless of their opinion of the last three.

 

Depends on how good they are at marketing it.

 

It's Star Wars, so it'll be successful. I wouldn't be surprised to see it top 1B in total, perhaps up to 1.5B as the highest possible estimate.

 

Really wouldn't shock me if it makes the most out of the 7 movies in the saga at that point, ticket prices keep on being inflated and they're only going to get higher.

 

It will make over $400m domestically easy. Anything over is icing on the cake as it will be considered a success.

 

Regardless of what I believe it should be about, I'm thinking that the more connection the movie (and its advertising) have to the Original Trilogy, the higher the gross will go.

 

I think it will make at least a billion worldwide.

 

I'm going to shoot for the moon and say 3 billion total worldwide....of course this will only happen with a 'perfect storm', which would be plenty of publicity, good directors, a couple big name actors, good reveiws by critics, appearances by OT actors (at LEAST Hamill and the droids), good word-of-mouth. Come on, if a 3D effects-blowout with a stupid story can hit 2.8 bil, a film from the most popular franchise ever created that people have been waiting for since 1983 can trash it...Lucas can have redemption, and Cameron can kiss his ego-trip goodbye.

Granted this is highly ambitious and best-case scenario, but I can dream, right?

 

I think 2-3 billion might not be as crazy as some would think. If Disney handles Star Wars as deftly as they handled Marvel and the Avengers, Episode VII is going to be a thermonuclear explosion in the box office.

Of course, this is also going to be directed by the most under-pressure director of all time...whoever that may be.

 

I think 2 billion is achievable, 3 billion most definitely is not.

 

I think that 3 billion is achievable.

If Episode VII is released in 3D/Imax/D Box/2 D release (needs to be formats- no 2D no 3D hurts the boxoffice), If it has the old gang back in some capacity, if its has lowest rating U?PG and I would prefer a May release (Jaws/Star Wars/ET/Jurrassic Park) but winter (Titanic/Avatar) isn't all bad.


If Episode VII gets reviews 8.8/10 or higher then $3 billion is well within its grasp (Star Wars/Empire level critical acclaim). If Avatar can do £2.7billion so can VII
If Episode VII gets reviews 8.0/10 $2 billion
If Episode VII gets reviews 7.3/10 $1.5 billion
If Episode VII gets reviews 6.9/10 or lower then it will get around $1 billion

Can't see it getting less then $1 billion even low ratings didn't fatally hurt New Moon 4.5 or Transformers 2 5.9 or Transformers 3 6.3.

Avengers $1.5 billion 8.4/10 currently has no previous installments in top 50 all time boxoffice. So New Moon is more successful than any other Disney Marvel film except Avengers

Avatar had the pull of Cameron and the curiosity of people thinking it would be a turkey (same as Titanic- budget of both seemed to suggest they wouldn't make soooo much profit).

Star Wars has pedigree far beyond Titanic/Avengers/Avatar.

I think the VII will get a review around 7.3 and will pull in around $1.5 billion.

 

All figures can be disputed but ...http://www.mrob.com/pub/film-video/topadj.html

est Avatar 78 milliion admissions $2.7 billion 2009/10
est Titanics 133 admissions $1.3 billion 1997/8 (1.2 divided by 133 x 96 = 866 extra 100m can be accounted for by increased admission price/slight difference in gross figures/admission figures-1.3 gross divided by 133 x 96 = 938m far closer to Phantoms gross suggests some/acceptable accuracy in the figures)
est Avengers 59 million admissions

est Phantom 96 million admissions $950million 1999
est Jedi/Empire 100 million admissions each
est Star Wars 194 million admissions 1977 est Star Wars in 2009/10 $6.7 billion
est Sith 57 million admissions
est Clones 49 million admissions

Star Wars VII 3D that has A New Hope level of admission should post $.5 - $6.7 billion or greater (Very unlikely)
Star Wars VII 3D that has Phantom/Empire/Jedi levels of admission should post $2. 7 - $3.3 billion or greater (Some possibility and not out of the realms of probability for a great Star Wars film)
Star Wars VII 3D midway between Phantom/Clones admission 72.9million admissions should post $2.2 - $2.5 billion or greater (quite possible)
Star Wars VII 3D that has Sith levels of admission should post $1.7-$2 billion or greater (minimum expectation for me)
Star Wars VII 3D that has Clones levels of admission should post $1.2 - $1.6 billion or greater (it should do at least this level of business and would be a disapointment)
Star Wars VII 3D that gets $1 billion gross and has about 30 million admissions which is a film well under Clones level (would be unthinkable)

 

But easier said than done. Even as a more highly praised film, I'm not sure TPM could have accomplished the goal of taking down Titanic.

Another factor to consider is competition at the box office for screen space. It is hard to maintain your screen count when big block busters are opening up against you every week in your run, quickly reducing your grossing ability.

 

Yeah, that's the thing you gotta remember, even with its poor reviews, TPM was seen a zillion times by a ton of people, and was probably the most anticipated movie since 1989' Batman, and it still wasn't able to surpass Titanic.

Granted, now we have things like 3D and IMAX to drive prices and profits up - which is why I think 2 billion is achievable - but I really think the only thing that will make 7 all that anticipated is good reviews and buzz.

I think the GA at this point - especially younger kids/teens - feel as though Star Wars a pretty antiquated property. Which will have some negative impact.

 

Something more in line with Prometheus and Abrams' Star Trek as opposed to Avatar and Avengers.

 

The sad thing is, if SW7 ends up drawing that kind of box office, it will be entirely due to the Prequels' poor reception.

 

- The fans are going to come out and have a look, regardless, I think. And the Star Wars fanbase alone is quite large. Getting the non-fan to come out, as well as getting the fans to come back for multiple shows will be important.

- I'm sure there is a teen segment that thinks its too cool for Star Wars, but I think that has always existed. But just below them, remember, is a kid audience that is growing up on The Clone Wars these past 5 years and still likes the toys...

 

Yes, but all of that was true for the PT, and none of them were able to put up the numbers we're talking about now.

 

Even if if gets bad reviews I'm sure several, several people will still go see and it will be a success either way.

TPM got mixed reviews and still managed to make 900 million back in 99.