ST Episode VIII vs Avatar 3

Something tells me that SW will sell more merchandise for Episode 7 than Avatar 1 & 2 combined.

Star Wars is a phenomenon. Avatar is a movie.

 

Pretty much.
I might understand the 2 or 3 sequels they're doing if the first one was anything special and had some sort of wider impact except for cat people having brain sex with animals and each other via dreadlocks. I simply don't see much basis in the first movie for establishing a wider franchise. Again, it might be a positive surprise and actually be a good and interesting movie, but somehow I doubt it. As it stands now, I think Cameron might be better of making something new, that might even be a better basis for a big franchise than Avatar, if he wants to have his own sci-fi brand so badly.

 

No love for True Lies?
"You killed people!"
"They were all bad!"

 

I feel like we Star Wars lovers are in a bubble. When I get caught up in fanboy hysteria I imagine the entire world glued to theaters come Dec 2015, from Beverly Hills to slums in Bangladesh. That's not going to happen. Star Wars is massive yes, but no longer has the universal appeal it once did. In 2002, Star Wars went up against Spider-Man and lost. I agree that Avatar caught everyone by surprise and I don't see the sequel doing so well. Still, it will be a behemoth and would hurt Star Wars' boxoffice prospects if any of its sequels go head to head with any SW sequels.

 

With the big 3 and their potential comeback; Chewie; the falcon roaring across the screen....that's pretty much enough to destroy Avatar at the box office.

Even Cameron would believe that to be true.

 

Nobody can argue the box office draw of Avatar, but still, no cultural bite.

 

I dunno, despite being fully aware that many decisions about the future of this (and any) franchise will be based on how much it can earn, I simply can't bring myself to only look at things from that angle. I don't care how much it makes or how much Avatar makes or how much the Warcraft movie makes. That's not for me to care, that's for the company accountants to worry over and for the CEOs to decide. I am very much aware that it is a business, but this box office worship is out of control. If Episode 7 tanks financially (which I honestly do not consider possible) I don't really see them cancelling the other two or the spin offs. They'll just make damn sure that they make better movies after that. In fact, there are many awesome movies that "bombed" financially but are great movies nonetheless. I don't care what it earns, I want it to be a good movie. I firmly stand by the stance that a better product will earn more and, while it may be a bit contradictory, I really, really don't care how much this or that franchise earns against another franchise. In my view, that's an effed-up system of values that has been dominant in Hollywood since it's very beginning and is on the rise as the movie budgets become increasingly ludicrous. A movie like Green Lantern costs 200+ million dollars to make. Pirates: At World's End cost an insane amount of 300 million. News about movie earnings are being placed above objective reviews of it's faults and merits. If I go on a review site, I, as an audience member, don't give a flying **** about how much these or those two hours of entertainment cost or had to earn. I want to know about the content. The earnings are something that is a factor, of course, but it is something that should be a priority for authors, producers, financiers, companies that make them. I find it quite silly that such information is way more often being presented to the general audiences as something that should be of importance in judging the film's quality. Again, I am aware that it's based on these earnings and budgets that Powers That Be determine which movie gets made next and which doesn't but that only shows that it's a wider problem of twisted value systems. I mean really, a damn mission to Mars is being attempted at 70 million dollars and someone's trying to convince me that it's realistic for a three hour movie about Johnny Depp playing Johnny Depp in a pirate outfit to cost almost three times as much as going to goddamn Mars?

Again, I am quite aware that most of what I'm saying may seem contradictory and for the rant-like quality of my post, but it's just a bizzare situation that's rather frustrating. In the end, it's our own fault, because we, as the audience, have shown that we're willing to consume the same expensive, shiny, shallow, recycled crap. We've gotten caught up in an endless magic loop of "We're paying for it, so that's what they're only making, and we're paying because that's only what they're making."

 

I agree that the cost of the movie should NOT be a factor in a critics' reviews, or any production problems the movie faced (nearly every review mentions the problems in World War Z but often those mentions had nothing to do with their critiques). Just judge the movie in front of your eyes based on its own merit.

With that said, I personally think it's fun to discuss box-office, particularly when you have two juggernauts on a collision course. It's like a black hole meeting a black hole. Nobody knows what happens? I cannot imagine a scenario other than Episode VIII coming out May 2017 that this ends well. Why does it matter? Well, if a movie fails to make a profit or enough of a profit then studios will dial back to CYA. This could effect how Episode IX is made as well as standalone films (and whether there will be an Episode X-XII).

LunarMoth - I agree that Avatar doesn't permeate American conscious like Star Wars. The biggest threat is $$$. Spider-Man's 3rd weekend made $45 million during AOTC's 1st weekend, hurting its overall grosses. I cannot imagine what a head-to-head confrontation will do for both SW and Avatar sequels. There will be blood on the dance floor.

 

This is absolutely, 100% true. Avatar didn't permeate the culture like Star Wars. "May the Force be with you" is a ubiquitous phrase. Everyone knows who Luke Skywalker, Princess Leia and Han Solo are. I saw Dances with Aliens, uh I mean Avatar, in the theater and liked it well enough to buy the Blu-ray, which I have watched a couple times... and yet I cannot, for the life of me, remember the name of a single character from that movie. If you showed me the pictures I would remember the human-turned-alien protagonist, the alien love interest, the cartoon marine commander, and I remember the story.... but like I said, I sure can't name those people....

 

I think it will depend on how well Episode 7 is received. When TPM was released, studios arranged their movies to stay clear of TPM which some thought at the time could break Titanic's record. When AOTC and ROTS got released, studios weren't as shy about releasing their movies closer to Star Wars release dates and part of that was because they knew the prequels would make lots of money but they weren't necessarily gonna do Titanic business at the box office. So if Episode 7 ends up blowing people away, expect to see Cameron get pressured into moving the release date of his Avatar movie.

 

Nobody is going to pressure James Cameron into doing anything. He is quite like Lucas in that he now has total control and can tell anyone to take a flying leap if they try to get him to do something he doesn't want to do. His ego may not allow for such a change. Besides, I think E8 will bring Star Wars back to summertime releases so it doesn't really matter.

 

Just tone down the budget if you're worried about it tanking.

 

I wholeheartedly agree that Cameron will not move. No way, no how.

The issue with moving Episode VIII to summertime is that you have to face a juggernaut that's just as big (assuming a May release and 2018 release date) and that is Avengers 3 (you can bet your bottom dollar that it's coming out May 2018). Now, there is more wiggle room in the summer, particularly if they lay their claim early. I think June/July is probably their best bet. Hey, we already went against tradition with a December release, mine as well continue with a June/July release. See my Spider-Man example above for why a late May 2018 release is probably not a good idea.

 

I doubt Cameron's that interested in Avatar as a "brand" in the manner that Disney is with Star Wars. Not too long ago he even said that going forward everything he wants to say about the world as a filmmaker can be accomplished through the Avatar world or documentaries. Granted, I suppose those plans could change if the first sequel totally bombs, but I don't see that happening even if Episode VII manages to earn more.

 

dolphin

I'm don't disagree, but my point is that regardless of its "at the time" box office, Star Wars will far out earn Avatar, and long outlive it in the cultural consciousness.

 

Hmm....outlive it in the cultural consciousness. I absolutely agree!

Not so sure Episode VIII will outearn the Avatar sequel. In fact I think that's unlikely. If you mean the Star Wars franchise as a whole vs the four Avatar films. Sure, I can buy that. There are 6 already to the (eventual) 4 Avatar films.

 

Avatar 2 is also coming out almost a decade after the original.

 

If a Star Wars movie and an Avatar movie ever get released on the same day I'll cosplay as an Avatar character but get in the Star Wars line anyway just to make a point to all the news crews while shouting at the people in the avatar line to come out of the woods and join civilization. To top it off I'll sit in front of anyone cosplaying a gungun just to block their view of the screen.

 

I'm flat out saying the pricetag on this will be at least 250 mil. That Disney will admit to. As eloquently mentioned above, the freakin' Pirate movie cost 300 million dollars

Everybody loves True Lies. Heck, my mom loves True Lies. I refuse to believe that people actually exist who don't dig that movie.

 

But it'll never get a sequel now.

 

What I am referring to is the entirety of whichever Star Wars film is up against an Avatar sequel. I'm sure between box office, merch, and licensing, the Star Wars sequel, not including the rest of the franchise, will out earn Avatar's sequel.

 

I agree. After people figured out it was Dances with Wolves in outer space, it sort of lost its 'luster'. It'll make money, but I see more of a Hobbit-level box office gross (~$1bil). Imagine calling $1bil a consolation prize.

 

Avatar 2 will make enough money to warrant another sequel.

 

You mean Avatar 5? Avatar 3 & 4 are being made at this very moment at the same time as 2

 

Wow that's ambitious/crazy/stupid.