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  1. In Memory of LAJ_FETT: Please share your remembrances and condolences HERE

Senate Greek politics thread

Discussion in 'Community' started by Chyntuck, Dec 11, 2014.

  1. Chyntuck

    Chyntuck Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 11, 2014
    So Greece is back in the news, with the Athens stock exchange plummeting once more, because Prime Minister Antonis Samaras decided to hold the presidential election on 17 December 2014 instead of February-March 2015, leading to fears that there will be (again!) a general election.

    Here's how it works. In Greece, the President of the Republic, a largely ceremonial position, is elected by the parliament. The current president, Karolos Papoulias, has already served two five-year terms and must thus be replaced before the spring of 2015. For a new president to be elected, one of the candidates put forward by political parties (or coalitions of parties) represented in parliament must garner the votes of two-thirds of MPs in the first or second round of voting (meaning 200 votes out of 300 MPs) or three-fifths of the vote (meaning 180 votes of 300) in the third round. The prime minister decided to hold the first round on 17 December, it means that round two will take place on 23 December and round three on 29 December.

    If the parliament fails to elect a president by the 3rd round, it is dissolved and a general election is called. The president will then be elected by the new parliament (180 votes in the first round, 151 in the second round, plurality in the third round).

    As you probably guessed, the system is made to favour a consensus candidate who will be proposed by the government and supported by at least part of the opposition. The current president for instance was elected with 266 votes for his second term.

    The thing is that, right now, no one can secure a two-thirds majority in the Greek parliament, and probably not a three-fifths majority either. The government (which is a coalition of right-wing New Democracy and "socialist" PASOK) have the support of 155 MPs, so they must bring in more people if they want to elect a president. The rest of parliament is made of:
    • 71 SYRIZA and 12 communist MPs - there's no way in hell these guys are voting for the government's candidate.
    • 16 Golden Dawn (neo-Nazi) MPs, who aren't likely to vote for the establishment's candidate and who stand to win a lot from a general election, as polls show that they're gaining ground, but it's possible one or more of them could be bought off or blackmailed.
    • 12 ANEL ("Independent Greeks", populist nationalist offshot of New Democracy) -- their leader said they'd vote against the government's candidate, but there again it's possible one or more of them could be bought off or blackmailed.
    • 10 DIMAR ("Democratic Left") MPs. Now these are a tricky bunch. Their party was part of the government coalition for about a year until it pulled out over the shutdown of the public broadcaster ERT, and it has been collapsing in the polls ever since, to the point that they most likely won't reach the minimum threshold to enter parliament in the next general election. So even though the party's line is that they won't support the government, it's a wobbly line both at the party level -- they seem to change their mind every day -- and at the individual MP level -- hey, why give up on two years of all the goodies you get when you're an MP, from a big fat paycheck to parliamentary immunity? So some of them may vote for the government's candidate.
    • 24 independents, most of whom were originally elected on the ND and PASOK tickets. Of these, 13 have stated that they will support the government and 8 that they'll vote against. Three are still undecided -- among them, two ex-Golden Dawn MPs who are currently in prison (yes, Greece is crazy like that) and who could therefore easily be blackmailed into supporting the government.
    So to do the simple math, right now the government have 168 votes, and the question is if they can bring on board another 12 MPs to reach 180 for the third round of voting on 29 December. This means that there are some mafioso politics going on these days in Athens and that it will all be very messy... And if we have a general election afterwards, it will become even messier.
    Let Greece-bashing begin! Not that I'm asking you guys to bash my poor little country, but I'm very much afraid that it's unavoidable at this stage :(
     
  2. Coruscant

    Coruscant Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Feb 15, 2004
    Seriously, **** the Golden Dawn.

    I don't know much else about your country, I'm afraid. I'm an ugly American. :(
     
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  3. Lord Vivec

    Lord Vivec Chosen One star 9

    Registered:
    Apr 17, 2006
    A year ago I would have said (and I think I did) that the Golden Dawn were a big threat to Greek democracy, but they've not been able to capitalize on anything. Honestly, at this point they're a sideshow at best and an obstructionist force at worst. This is, of course, politically speaking. The killing and terrorizing of immigrants, etc is still pretty bad.
     
  4. Diggy

    Diggy Chosen One star 8

    Registered:
    Feb 27, 2013
    A we really allowed a thread on electing the person in charge of anal sex?
     
  5. Point Given

    Point Given Manager star 7 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Dec 12, 2006
    If there is another general election, is it likely that Samaras gets re-elected? Or will it be another chaotic one like the inconclusive election held before Samaras's election?
     
  6. Chyntuck

    Chyntuck Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 11, 2014
    I'm not sure I completely agree. It's true that GD are something of a sideshow now, but it doesn't mean they're gone. They just managed to push a large part of their agenda in the mainstream, so basically their dirty political work is done. What is really worrying is how close they have become to New Democracy. Some people already suspected that they are very close in the past, but now it's out in the open, and a likely scenario for the future is that ND splits in two, with one part joining forces with GD and the rest trying to reestablish a centre-right, liberal bourgeois party. I say "the rest" because, given the overall situation right now in Greece, there isn't much space left for a political centre.

    Right now all the polls give SYRIZA a substantial lead over New Democracy, so unless something massive happens, it's very unlikely that Samaras would be re-elected (TBH, good riddance, the man is a closet fascist). But that doesn't mean that we're getting a stable government either. SYRIZA really need to step up their game if they want to secure an absolute majority in parliament, and if they don't, they'll have to form a coalition with other parties and it's all going to be very, very complicated and messy, because their choices will be pro-austerity "centre-left" parties (similar to DIMAR) with which they'll disagree on economic policy, or anti-austerity right-wing parties (similar to ANEL) with which they'll disagree on everything else. (Which is not to say that the Samaras government was stable -- it was reshuffled twice in two years and it has been bleeding MPs every month since it was formed.)
     
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  7. GrandAdmiralJello

    GrandAdmiralJello Comms Admin ❉ Moderator Communitatis Litterarumque star 10 Staff Member Administrator

    Registered:
    Nov 28, 2000
    I really enjoy your citizen's look into Greek politics, and especially appreciate the explanations and summaries.
     
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  8. Lord Vivec

    Lord Vivec Chosen One star 9

    Registered:
    Apr 17, 2006
    Well that's something I haven't heard about. If true that is worrying.
     
  9. Chyntuck

    Chyntuck Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 11, 2014
    Thanks Jello :)
    Have a look at the Baltakos scandal. Baltakos was the cabinet secretary and one of Samaras's closest advisors since the 1990s. Last April, a video was released showing him having a friendly chat with GD spokesman Kasidiaris and explaining to him that the arrests of GD leaders was a conspiracy by two government ministers but that he personally opposed it. You can see the video with subs and transcript here (language warning: it's a closet fascist talking to a Nazi, so you can imagine...) and some more explanations here including reactions from opposition parties, a more detailed analysis of Baltakos's politics here, and some info about Baltakos's stated plans to start a new party with people from GD here.

    I just want to insist on the fact that Baltakos isn't a nobody. Cabinet secretary is a very, very powerful position and to be named to it you must have the support of not only the prime minister but also a large number of MPs and ministers as well as party officials.
     
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  10. Chyntuck

    Chyntuck Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 11, 2014
    Well, it starts tomorrow at 7 pm Greek time. There is only one candidate, Stavros Dimas, whose name was put forward by the government coalition. There will be a roll call and MPs will have the choice to either vote for Dimas or vote "present". To be elected he needs 200 votes. The 8 Golden Dawn MPs who are in prison will be transported to parliament to participate in the vote.

    I'm not in Greece right now but from what I read in the papers and what my friends and family tell me the political atmosphere is toxic. Government people keep repeating that "if we don't elect a president it will be chaos" and that "SYRIZA won't vote for a president because they want chaos" -- pretty much the way it was in May-June 2012. On the other hand, at least 5 senior officials on the government's side (ministries' general secretaries, chairmen/women of major public institutions) resigned from their positions since yesterday, most probably because they intend to run for parliament, which confirms that there won't be a president and we're going for early elections.
     
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  11. Chyntuck

    Chyntuck Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 11, 2014
    MP Stathis Boukouras, who was elected on the Golden Dawn ticket in June 2012, was arrested together with other GD MPs in September 2013 and left the party while held on remand, was released from prison this morning -- not just to participate in today's vote, but until his trial. Anyone want to take a guess as to who he'll vote for tonight?
     
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  12. Chyntuck

    Chyntuck Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 11, 2014
    The deed is done. No president for Greece today. There were 160 votes for Stavros Dimas, 135 against and 5 MPs who didn't bother turning up.

    You could call this a rout for the government. The main opposition party, SYRIZA, had merely said that they wanted 121 votes against Dimas to make the point that the government don't have the required 180 votes to elect a president even in the third round. But the government kept repeating that they had secured 161 votes, possibly 162 (their own 155 MPs and 6-7 independents) and that their goal was to reach 180 tonight. They didn't even get those they thought they had... and guess what? They released Boukouras from jail for nothing. He didn't show up. Sometimes I wonder if Nazis have a sense of humour :p

    This of course doesn't mean that there can't be changes until the next two rounds. Stories of opposition MPs being offered millions to vote for Dimas abound in Greek media these days. What is interesting is that, today at least, the DIMAR and ANEL MPs all voted against Dimas, including MPs who left these parties and are currently sitting as independents in parliament.

    The next round is on Tuesday 23 December at noon (Greek time). In the meanwhile, someone check the state of the markets. The Athens stock exchange will collapse as soon as it opens tomorrow morning.

    And now, let's move on to another thread on today's real historical event: the US conspired with Cuba to rob Greece of its global spotlight ;)
     
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  13. Chyntuck

    Chyntuck Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 11, 2014
    I arrived home on Thursday evening just on time to see Greek political life sink to a new low. These last few days have the feel of a dark comedy co-directed by Bunuel and the Monty Python about the life of Mobutu.

    So. First there were these (multiple, insistent, persistent) rumours that opposition MPs were being offered bribes to vote for the government's candidate to the presidency.

    Then an MP from ANEL (right-wing nationalist, populist party) claimed that he was offered a specific amount by a specific person from the prime minister's inner circle, and took his claims to the prosecutor's office.

    Then the said MP released a video recording (!!!) of his encounter with the said person.

    Cue media and political hysteria.

    Then the prime minister filed a lawsuit against the ANEL MP, seconds after the MP finished giving an interview on the largest private TV channel's evening news. Oh, and the government's spokeswoman said that it was all orchestrated by SYRIZA.

    Then the police claimed that the video had been tampered with, but the prosecutor's office seems to believe it wasn't...

    Then the prosecutor's office said they'd do this and that and whatnot, and they summoned the ANEL chairman for testimony. And the ANEL chairman said he couldn't go before tomorrow because he had to pick up his son from the airport, but he finally went anyway when the prosecutor said that, without his testimony, he'd have to drop the investigation.

    Meanwhile, the PASOK chairman, who also happens to be the deputy prime minister, suggested publicly -- apparently without consulting the rest of the government -- that they drop the Stavros Dimas candidacy and put forward instead Fotis Kouvelis, i.e. the chairman of DIMAR, a party that used to be part of the government coalition but pulled out in June 2013. (You're still following?)

    Aaaaand... the government voted an amendment to the law that forbids publishing opinion polls in the last two weeks before an election. In Greece (and some other European countries) we had that law to make sure that polls can't be used to manipulate public opinion ahead of the vote. Well, we don't have it anymore -- and interestingly, in the past few days, we have been seeing (in pro-government media) a series of mystery polls conducted by mystery pollsters no one ever heard of before, who are not registered with the National Association of Pollsters and whose methodology and compliance with the law regarding polls is at best questionable (e.g. the sample size is below the legal minimum, they don't specify if the poll was conducted by phone or in person, they fail to name the entity that sponsored the poll, etc.)

    And meanwhile still... two important bills are due for discussion in parliament tomorrow (about health and forestry), and government MPs have submitted a total of 132 (!!!!!!!) amendments and additions to the drafts that were prepared by... government ministers. I had a look and it's what we call in Greek "photographic amendments" i.e. tiny little things that you add here and there in a law to accommodate the needs of such and such businessman.

    Do I need to add a personal comment to the above?
     
  14. Rogue_Ten

    Rogue_Ten Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Aug 18, 2002
    i dont have anything to add to this but i just wanted to say its interesting so keep going
     
  15. Alpha-Red

    Alpha-Red Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Apr 25, 2004
    I don't have anything to add to this, but I just wanted to say I recently found out what a chyntuck was from playing Star Wars: Assault Team.
     
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  16. Chyntuck

    Chyntuck Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 11, 2014
    Thanks Rogue!

    Today's news: the prosecutor (unsurprisingly) dropped the bribery case, saying that the video was illegal (which is true) but also that there was no need to investigate further. Hmmmm.

    Yesterday the PM made an address to the nation. You can Google-translate it here but I'll give you the highlights:
    • "The Greek people don't want early elections" -- translation: I'm in deep doodoo because I don't have the votes to elect a president, someone please do something.
    • "Elections mean instability" -- translation: my understanding of how democracy works is limited.
    • "SYRIZA has to stop accusing us of trying to bribe people. Besides, the courts always prove them wrong" -- translation: I put some pressure on the prosecutor to drop the case. Oh, and I don't know the difference between SYRIZA (radical left) and ANEL (nationalist right).
    • "I call on all MPs to follow their conscience, their soul, the national interest and common sense and vote for Stavros Dimas" -- translation: listen carefully now, I'm going to promise you stuff.
    • "I also call on all MPs to support the constitutional reform process I started" -- translation: if I don't reform the constitution, my party will never be in power again, and neither will yours unless you're SYRIZA.
    • "After a president is elected, we'll expand the government coalition to include more people" -- translation: vote for my candidate and I'll make you a cabinet minister.
    • "Once we have a president and finish negotiating the new bailout with the troika, we can have elections at the end of 2015" -- translation: 1) I have more austerity measures to pass, 2) SYRIZA MPs, if you vote for my candidate I'll give you elections anyway.
    Round two of the voting in parliament is tomorrow at noon Greek time. I'll be back!
     
  17. JoinTheSchwarz

    JoinTheSchwarz Former Head Admin star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Nov 21, 2002
    It all looks ridiculously similar to the Spanish political climate. For obvious reasons.
     
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  18. GrandAdmiralJello

    GrandAdmiralJello Comms Admin ❉ Moderator Communitatis Litterarumque star 10 Staff Member Administrator

    Registered:
    Nov 28, 2000
    Except without the threatened monarchy referendum.


    Missa ab iPhona mea est.
     
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  19. JoinTheSchwarz

    JoinTheSchwarz Former Head Admin star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Nov 21, 2002
    Or the burgeoning separatist movement, yeah. And our far-right is still licking their words after their ridiculous performance during the European elections, and don't really amount to much. But the whole climate, the complete lack of trust in politicians and structures, the quasi-apocalyptical awareness... it's the same.
     
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  20. Chyntuck

    Chyntuck Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 11, 2014
    It's like watching parliamentary democracy collapse on itself.
    -------------------------------------------------------
    The cherry on the cake: the prosecutor didn't just drop the case. He's actually investigating the MP who said they tried to bribe him. [face_money_eyes]
     
  21. Chyntuck

    Chyntuck Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 11, 2014
    Aaaaaand... no president today either! The government's candidate garnered 8 extra votes today (total 168) while 131 voted against and 1 MP who was absent for health reasons sent a letter saying she would have voted against.

    Let's note that, among the new votes for Dimas, there are two independent MPs who were elected on the Golden Dawn ticket (!) including Boukouras, who is facing criminal charges and was released from prison in the morning of the first round of voting (!!).

    Let's also note that 1 MP from DIMAR left her party minutes before the vote and participated as an independent (and another one is rumoured to have left the party, but it wasn't confirmed before today's vote.) She voted against Dimas though, but that may be to bargain for a better reward before the third round. This defection also brings DIMAR to only 9 MPs, meaning they're not a parliamentary group anymore. Correction: DIMAR was elected as a party, therefore they can maintain their group with as few as 5 MPs.

    The third round will take place on 29 December at noon (Greek time). The required threshold is now 180 votes, and conventional wisdom says that it's impossible for the government to go from 168 to 180 by then -- unless something very "dramatic" happens, but other than throwing really a lot of money around, I can't imagine what. 12 extra votes means all the remaining independent MPs plus a few from ANEL and DIMAR (or possibly Golden Dawn, if they got the Boukouras message.)

    To be continued...
     
  22. Chyntuck

    Chyntuck Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 11, 2014
    Here's your Christmas update from Athens.

    After yesterday's vote (I'll spare you the prime minister's hysteria that "elections are a threat to the nation" -- no comment), the public discussion has focused largely on the possibility that Golden Dawn MPs could turn around and vote for Stavros Dimas. Having thought of the whole thing some more, there are actually good reasons why DIMAR, ANEL and GD would want to vote for him and avoid elections. In all three cases, voting against Dimas is a bit like turkeys voting for Christmas. DIMAR are polling so low that they'd all lose their seats if there are elections -- they won't elect a single MP. ANEL would probably enter parliament, but they'd lose half their seats. As for Golden Dawn, they've also been losing traction according to recent polls (with the caveat that polls aren't all that reliable) but most importantly they'll be facing a court of justice in the coming months. In a country where the independence of the judiciary is a joke, do they really want to go to court with a left-wing government in charge? If I were them, I wouldn't.

    But of course, with all this intense discussion about the GD turnabout, new parameters came into play. This morning, two prominent New Democracy MPs, namely Dora Bakogianni (former minister of foreign affairs, former mayor of Athens, former minister of culture) and her brother Kyriakos Mitsotakis (current minister of administrative reform) announced that they and their faction would vote against Dimas if he had the support of GD. Here's the background to this.

    First of all you have to know that Greece's right-wing, currently governing party is mostly a family business involving two political clans: the Karamanlis family and the Mitsotakis family. Constantine Karamanlis senior was prime minister from 1974 to 1980, then president from 1980 to 1985 and 1990 to 1995, while his nephew Constantine Karamanlis junior was prime minister from 2004 to 2009. Meanwhile, Constantine Mitsotakis (father of Dora Bakogianni and Kyriakos Mitsotakis) became the party chairman in 1984 and was prime minister from 1990 to 1993. His daughter was even his minister of culture for a while. You get the picture?

    Now here's the thing. The Mitsotakis government fell in 1993 because of none other than... Antonis Samaras, our current prime minister. Samaras was Mitsotakis's foreign minister. He resigned over the Macedonia name dispute (all this mess about the name of Macedonia/FYROM is his fault), founded his own party and got a few New Democracy MPs to defect and join him, thus causing the government to fall. So you could say that there's a vendetta of sorts between Samaras and the Mitsotakis family -- and it intensified in 2009-2010, when Samaras, having rejoined New Democracy, managed to get himself elected party chairman against Bakogianni. She was very upset about being deprived of what she considered her birthright and left/was expelled from the party a few months later. She re-joined the party for the June 2012 elections.

    Is there an emoticon for "musical chairs"?

    Anyway. What all this tells us is that the Mitsotakis family faction within New Democracy don't want Stavros Dimas to be elected. They want a general election, because they will then be able to wrestle the party leadership from Samaras and they'll get the prime minister-ship at some point in the future. 29 December is going to be an interesting day in Greek history.
     
  23. Chyntuck

    Chyntuck Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 11, 2014
    One would hope that the political hysteria would subside over Christmas, but no... These past few days' highlights include:

    ... Stavros Dimas, the government's candidate to the presidency, saying that he won't accept the presidential election result if he's elected thanks to the Golden Dawn votes. Question: why did he run in the first place then?

    ... Sofia Voultepsi, the government's spokeswoman, saying in an interview that "if Tsipras [the opposition leader] knew what's in store for him if he becomes prime minister, he'd be begging his MPs to vote for Dimas." So we should all be grateful to Samaras for sacrificing himself to save the nation, eh?

    ... Antonis Samaras giving an interview on state TV yesterday (if you can call that an interview when it's pretty clear that his office wrote the questions for the "journalists") and saying that "not a single Greek citizen wants early elections." I assume that means that the 132 MPs who voted against Dimas last week are not Greek citizens. Someone should investigate how non-citizens got elected to parliament.
     
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  24. Chyntuck

    Chyntuck Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 11, 2014
    CHAMPAAAAAAAAAGNE!

    Can a mod please remove the word "possibly" from the title of this thread?

    The third round of the presidential election took place today. The only candidate was still Stavros Dimas, whose name was put forward by the coalition government, and he needed 180 votes to be elected. He got the same 168 as in the second round. So we're going for snap elections on 25 January or 1 February (the date will probably be confirmed later today.)

    There was a surreal moment at the end of the vote. The speaker of parliament announced the official results and he got a standing ovation both from New Democracy (government) and SYRIZA (opposition). And the Golden Dawn prisoners waved their handcuffs in the air, screaming something I didn't get, and spat on Boukouras (the ex-GD who was released and voted in favour of Dimas)

    I can't say that I'm looking forward to the pre-election period, but I'm really happy to see the back of the most right-wing government (one would dare say with fascist tendencies) since the fall of the Junta.

    About one-third into the roll call, the Athens Stock Exchange fell by 9.11%, banks by 15%. Two-thirds in, it was ASE -10.54%, -banks -18%. I didn't check again afterwards.

    And now the REAL fear mongering can begin. Sneak preview: "Greeks are rushing to the bank to take their savings and are leaving the country in droves to escape the communists."

    [​IMG]
     
  25. LAJ_FETT

    LAJ_FETT Tech Admin (2007-2023) - She Held Us Together star 10 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    May 25, 2002
    Took care of the title for you. I was reading about this on the BBC News site a little while ago.
     
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