[HCSF] box office predictions

Discussion in 'Revenge of the Sith (Non-Spoilers)' started by DarthRandolph, Apr 26, 2003.

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  1. DarthRandolph Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Apr 14, 2003
    how well do you think episode 3 will do in the box office
  2. SLR Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Oct 20, 2002
    star 5
    I think it will make somewhere between $290-$350 million. It might make more than AOTC but it won't even come close to TPM.
  3. Vaderbait Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Sep 26, 2001
    star 6
    I agree with the 290-300 mark.
  4. Jedi Greg Maddux Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Aug 3, 1999
    star 6
    I'd say in the $300-400 mil range. Lucas admitted that its darkness might be a bit of a turnoff, so he does expect a dip in box office sales.
  5. SWfan2002 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 28, 2002
    star 4
    Probably 205-250 million. I'm sure Ep3 will be the best of the PT (because it will include the climax), but it won't be a huge hit at the box office like the other SW films were, imho.
  6. DARTH_NAFOD Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Nov 20, 2002
    star 1
    I predict $450+

    Why, although it will be dark and may turn the young away, many of the fans will see it more than they have seen AOTC and TPM. Why? Because after E3 has been out a while, then some theaters will probably start doing the E1-E6 on the big screen so people will see them as they were intended.

    For the Masses, two words: DARTH VADER

    It is what the PT has been missing for many casual fans. Thats what the casual fans I know at work say anyway.

    (I define casual fan as someone who can name at least 2 episodes, and knows the main characters)
  7. Jeff 42 Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Sep 14, 1998
    star 5
    Right now my prediction is $340 million.
  8. DarthWeenie Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Sep 2, 2002
    star 4
    It will only be surpassed by A New Hope.

    AOTC is forever destined to be the one that made the least money.

    The OT has mass appeal. The thing most people were expecting with the PT is to have that same mass appeal, but alas it only appeals to Star Wars fans.

    Episode 3 will bring back the era where a Star Wars movie can be enjoyed by anyone. Plus, its the one that everyone and their wookie has been waiting to see for decades.
  9. Dark Lady Mara Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Jun 19, 1999
    star 7
    I can't imagine that. Most casual fans judge Star Wars films based only on the previous one, so a lot of people who didn't like AotC probably won't be back for E3. Although diehards fans may be looking forward to E3 the most, they aren't the ones who generate most of the revenue.
  10. DarthWeenie Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Sep 2, 2002
    star 4
    Interesting point of view. Actually, in my experience, everyone honestly and truly REMEMBERS Star Wars. Most "casual fans" I know still love the OT, and many (well, OLD people) do not think of the PT as "STar Wars" at all. Neither episode 1, nor episode 2, has been what the casual fan was expecting to see - i.e. its nothing like the 3 Star Wars movies they saw years ago and have come to think of as "Star Wars" is.

    People remember Star Wars for what it was, and wish to see it return to the precedent it itself put forth. So, when going into ep3, surely the "casual fan" will have the previous SW movie in mind, but I imagine their mindset will be something like, "I hope this one isnt like the last one."

    Know what I mean? They will see the movie BECAUSE they want to love Star Wars. The last two may not have "done it" for them, but that doesnt mean theyve forgotten Star Wars by any means. They very much remember it, and will see Episode 3 hoping to see more of it. I dont think the fact that they didnt like the last 2 will have much bearing on whether they see this one or not.

    Why? Because IMO, Ep3, if its as "dark" as GL claims, will be that lost Star Wars. The missing link of Star Wars. The Star Wars that a non-Star Wars fan could love. It will harken back to the days where STar Wars was the bee's knees, as it were. Back to they days where Star Wars was "the thing." And if it is, then people will realize it, either sensing it, or hearing it by word of mouth, that, "Star Wars is back!"

    And if, with episode 3, Star Wars is back, as I suspect it will be, Episode 3 will gross an enormous amount of money. MOre than TPM, probably. If TPM made that much money (almost a billion dollars!) and is regarded by most fans and non-fans as the weakest SW film, think how much a "good" SW film could make.
  11. advent Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Mar 23, 2003
    star 2
  12. DamonD Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Nov 22, 2002
    star 6
    DarthWeenie, why'd you think AOTC made the least money?

    ESB made the least in the US, and ROTJ made the least worldwide. Unless you're talking adjusted, and then that throws the whole movie situation all over the place anyway.

    Back on topic...I reckon a reasonable estimate would be about $330m US and $300m-350m internationally, for a total of $630m-680m worldwide.
  13. Jedi Daniel Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Apr 7, 2000
    star 5
    It will perform better than AOTC but it will not beat TPM.
  14. tun_dot_com Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Dec 5, 2002
    star 2
    I think seeing Darth Vader on the big screen will get all the people coming. :D
  15. Phantom-Iam Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Nov 24, 2002
    star 4
    US- 325 million
    Worldwide- 500 million+
  16. DarthWeenie Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Sep 2, 2002
    star 4
    DamonD-

    According to sources Ive read, AOTC made the least money worldwide out of any SW film. I understand how figures can differ depending on the source. And I do not take into account inflation, only hard numbers. Taking "adjusted" box office figures into account only makes everything even LESS concrete.

    But according to box office figures reported by this very site at least once, AOTC made the least money at the box office of any SW film. That report may have "adjusted" the figures and I missed it, but I dont think so. But that would account for the discrepency between you and I. Or, it could just be a case of "different sources = different numbers."

    As it stands, I am under the impression that AOTC made less than ROTJ.
  17. advent Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Mar 23, 2003
    star 2
  18. Vaderbait Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Sep 26, 2001
    star 6
    Episode 3 will bring back the era where a Star Wars movie can be enjoyed by anyone.

    I doubt it, I think Episode 3 will isolate people more than TPM or AOTC did. People have too many expectations for it to be loved by everyone.

    The PT is exactly the same as the OT. Face it.
  19. Darth_Zoo Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jul 15, 2002
    star 4
    Attack of the Clones made the least money out of the 5 SW movies adjusted for inflation. The order would go ANH, ESB, ROTJ, TPM, then AotC falling behind. Adjusted I see Episode 3 besting Attack of the Clones by a small margin. Unadjusted it would be the #3 out of the SW movies with about $350-60M.
  20. Jeff 42 Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Sep 14, 1998
    star 5
    Actually, looking at the original releases only, the order of adjusted gross is ANH, TPM, RotJ, ESB, AotC. ANH is way ahead of all the others, and AotC is way behind all the others. The dropoff (percentage-wise) from TPM to AotC is quite similar to the dropoff from ANH to ESB, actually slightly better. So I think Episode III as the final installment in the series will follow the same pattern and have slightly stronger ticket sales than AotC.
  21. coney_1_kenobi Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Aug 2, 2002
    star 4
    I can't imagine that. Most casual fans judge Star Wars films based only on the previous one, so a lot of people who didn't like AotC probably won't be back for E3.

    Not entirely true. Didn't Rotj make more than ESB.

    And I'm pretty sure AOTC passed ESB (unadjusted that is).

    Someone mentioned they don't really pay attention to the adjusted figures. But if one of the OT films were adjusted and showed that it made more money than the films now, doesn't that mean it sold more tickets?
    Of course it does.
    IMHO, i think it shows which films truly had the most attention
  22. DamonD Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Nov 22, 2002
    star 6
    If anyone wants this, here are the exact box office figures for the 5 Star Wars films, unadjusted of course. And in order of amount, not release.

    US BOX OFFICE
    Star Wars: Episode IV $460,998,007
    Star Wars: Episode I $431,088,297
    Star Wars: Episode II $310,672,361
    Star Wars: Episode VI $309,306,177
    Star Wars: Episode V $290,475,067

    INTERNATIONAL BOX OFFICE
    Star Wars: Episode I $494,500,000
    Star Wars: Episode II $337,381,454
    Star Wars: Episode IV $337,000,000
    Star Wars: Episode V $243,700,000
    Star Wars: Episode VI $161,200,000

    WORLDWIDE BOX OFFICE
    Star Wars: Episode I $925,588,297
    Star Wars: Episode IV $797,998,007
    Star Wars: Episode II $648,053,815
    Star Wars: Episode V $534,175,067
    Star Wars: Episode VI $470,506,177
  23. TheWombat Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Oct 9, 2002
    star 4
    Chewbacca's worth at least another $10 million :D
  24. DamonD Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Nov 22, 2002
    star 6
  25. DamonD Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Nov 22, 2002
    star 6
    Hmm, checking around for that AOTC international figure I've seen it reported as $337.6m in a couple places.

    So it could be a little higher, but that $337.381m figure is definitely confirmed from Feb 24th.
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