[HCSF] box office predictions

I'm baffled by the people who think Episode III will make less that $300 million. $300 million is a given.

I personally don't think critics will have any effect on Episode III, nor do I think they had a severe effect on Attack of the Clones. The fact of the matter is, during the summer of 2002, Attack fo the Clones was in less theaters than practically every other major release. It was in 800 less theaters than Spider-Man. And it was in 600 less theaters than The Two Towers. Now, personally, I believe that had Attack of the Clones been given those extra 600/800 theaters, it would have surpassed the $350 million mark easily. And lets not forget IMAX. It lasted a year, earning $10 million even after the DVD release.

Attack of the Clones also had a severe slate of competition in 2002. Spider-Man is probally the biggest comic series. That was destined to be a hge success no matter what. And The Lord of the Rings obviously has a huge fan base. Comparing that to 2005, there doesn't seem to be much going up against Episode III.

I don't think there's a general disinterest in Star Wars. Episode III will be huge. The biggest film of 2005. I gurantee it.

 

`I'm baffled by the people who think Episode III will make less that $300 million. $300 million is a given.'

Well that's Lucas' opinion. And that's what I'm going by.

 

Lucas didn't think TPM would make as much as it did. I don't know why anyone is bringing up critics in relation to Box Office. It's well known that critics have been bashing Star Wars since 77. I suppose you're all refering to the mainstream media and how it's become 'cool to hate Star Wars'. The media has a short attention span, if Star Wars can go from cool to uncool with one movie, why not go back again? "Star Wars sucks!" - "Oh that kind of thinking is sooooooo 1999"

Then again, these days blockbusters are a dime a dozen. While Batman Begins is the only movie to seriously compete with Episode III (and it will put up a fight), is the fact that it's the 'greatest' movie out going to mean anything to the unwary public? The irony of Star Wars is that it created a precedent in film making of being able to portray outstanding visuals, which has allowed so many movies to come out using these techniques to compete with further Star Wars movies. It's kind of like the collective audience is being made numb to great movies. There's always some huge special effects movie out, and while people don't realize it they're actually getting bored of it. Some people won't distinguish Episode III from last seasons big hit. It's just another movie with even bigger battles and more darkness still.

I think the Vader factor is the only thing to go on. If there's billboard after billboard and TV spot after TV spot showcasing Vader, utlimately people will be a bit more interested. Marketting has always been the most important tool in making a movies gross. Spider Man spent, what, a third of it's budget on marketing? That's supposed to be why it has the biggest opening weekend record. However, if Vader is used in marketing, people will be disapointed that the whole movie wasn't about Vader, just Anikan. It's been quoted by GL and JEJ that he'll only be in it for the last 5 minutes. In this case we'll get another case of hype backlash. If they promise Vader then don't deliver, it's going to hurt word of mouth.

I think it's given that this flick won't do as well as TPM. The only question is whether it'll do better or worse than AotC. There are way too many factors to look at, so it could probably go either way.

 

Has the title changed opinions any?

 

I'd say around $250 million. Definately less than $300 million.

 

People are talking about the movie & Darth Vader & Wookies already as if it's coming out next week. The dvds finally coming out doesn't hurt either.

No way that the return of Darth Vader to Star Wars will be neglected or forgotten, this movie will easily surpass the BO of Attack of the Clones - it's not even arguable.

 

As with every series that comes to an end, I think it will match or top TPM in both in the US and worldwide. I say that it will do 385-410 in the US and 900 to 1.1 worldwide.

I am really hoping GL gets the lead out and gets the last one right. I loved the first too and have seen all the SW (so far) more times then I can count. I am utilizing some wishful thinking but that's my answer.

 

Tough to predict the average moviegoer. If the movie is more mainstream and less 'fan' friendly, more adult and less juvenile, it could make $400. But I think it will generate the same semi-negative buzz of the last 2 and come in around $300.

People are too used to hating on Star Wars now. It would take a big step forward to reverse that trend. Regardless, though, everyone will go to see it. But it would need to be a good film to get the average moviegoer back more than once to push it up in the $400 range.

 

DarthWeenie is the most accurate here... he has the pulse.

"AOTC is forever destined to be the one that made the least money."

This is true. If you just look at the trends, this is pretty obvious. ANH made a ton of money, ESB made a ton of money but much less than ANH, and then ROTJ came in and blew away ESB. In fact on its first release, because of inflation, ROTJ made more than ANH, too. That despite the complaining of many fans that ROTJ was "too kiddie" or whatever other mostly idiotic, shallow complaints people made.

I'll guarantee that ROTS will annihilate AOTC at the box office, but I don't know how high it will climb. I'd say that's tough, but I'm thinking that the magic is going to be here for the last film. AOTC was an amazing movie, it was awesome in every respect, maybe even my favorite SW film, but it appealed, like ESB, mainly to the fans of the saga, not as much to the general public (like TPM and ROTJ, which, despite criticisms, were very popular with the kids and most of the public). Episode III introduces Vader to the prequel trilogy, that advertising with Vader all over will sell the movie. People know who Vader is, they get the idea by this point, it's becoming more familiar.

The ticket prices have inflated to the point where TPM has about $560 million, so there is every chance that ROTS can make $435 million and beat TPM. People who say, "Oh well ROTS won't beat TPM, it won't make more money," they are making two statements at the same time that somehow they think are equal but in fact are not. ROTS might not beat TPM, but it could still make more money. Tickets are far more expensive, so ROTS would only have to sell about 85% as many tickets to beat TPM handily.

My guess is that ROTS makes somewhere between $385 million and $500 million, but it's very hard to say. To reach an extremely high level, like a $500 million, it would need the advantage of at least some very strong critical reviews, even if they weren't glowing, just ones like, "This is the best of the prequels so far and demonstrates the magic of the original trilogy" or something [obviously I think the prequels have ruled, lol].

Of course what would be the most perfect, storybook ending to this lovely journey would be if ROTS came out, opened with like $125 million in 4 days, all of the fans loved it and saw it more times than TPM and AOTC because it's the last SW film, then the parents and kids go in droves, normal people go see it, etc. and after a month it's already crashed $450 million, then by the end of the summer it ends at $650 million and finally erases Titanic, putting Star Wars where it belongs -- at #1!

Nah I'm just waiting for the re-release of ANH at some point in the future to put it back on top.

 

$350 million is my guess right now, but you can never predict these things. Who would have thought that Shrek 2 would finish just two million below TPM?

 

Actually, Shrek 2 just passed TPM and is still going

 

Most of my friends are not adament SW fans...they know nothing of The Duel, Palpatine=Sidious, or the fact that Vader will be in it....I havent told them, so it would be a surprise....This movie is going to be a shocker for the general public that goes to see it, so they may see it a few more times....


my guess is 450 million domestic...word of mouth will drive this movie past most expectations

 

Actually, Shrek 2 just passed TPM and is still going

Yeah, I just saw that.

 

Yeah, it's going to be the moviegoers that see multiple screenings that will give ROTS any chance of catching Titanic.

I remember talking to some people who had seen Titantic 20 times in the theatre. Gimme a break.

The only thing funnier than that is imagining Leonardo DiCaprio as Anakin Skywalker.

As far as I know, there is no blockbuster to compete with ROTS like Spiderman did with AOTC.

People had been waiting forever for a quality Spiderman flick, and it got the hype and released a couple weeks before AOTC.

If ROTS has no "real" competition, it could hit in the $350-500 million range.

 

Back during the OT critics had no influence over box office ratings because no one really read reviews. But today the media is so much more powerful and a part of peoples' daily lives that whether or not the mainstream media likes it or hates it is a big issue. At the moment, it's cool to hate Star Wars. But what if there was a double-reverse and all of a sudden it became cool to like it again, because RotS works so well that all of them are cool again? That could have a pretty incredible effect.

 

It is hard to predict. Like was said who knew Shrek 2 would do so well. So I say $350 million for ROTS.

 

I am going to take that day off from work and watch it twice.

Then i'm going to watch it every day till the numbers come in.

I can't friggen wait. I think its a resposibility to watch this movie as many times as possible.

 

Good for you - THAT'S what I like to hear: someone that considers it part of their personal responsibility to watch ROTS as much as possible.

 

Nice, to Darth-Kevin-Thomas you listen!

I've never personally been outdone by a Titanic fan, so I'm always disappointed that some other fans let the 13-year-old girls who watched Titanic a million times get the better of them I really thought we'd win, TPM vs. Titanic, just because Star Wars has so much broader appeal (and of course it still does, TPM didn't disprove that -- after all, there are 6 SW movies spanning 4 different decades and that one story has crushed Titanic financially in every sense from movies to merchandising to fanbse).

In any case, I saw TPM 50 times in theaters, and AOTC 54 (my signature isn't up to date, the 54th was at IMAX with my FanForce back in November 2002). I've done my part, but I certainly intend to do it again for ROTS. If I don't get to a nice round 50 at least, well, that'd just be a shame! I'll actually be off college and taking some personal time off before going to graduate school for film so I'll have plenty of time to spend watching ROTS an incredible number of times It being the last SW film and all, I do not want to regret not seeing it enough. So far I've never had that problem with TPM and AOTC, though I always missed them when they were gone from theaters.

I really think you have to be crazy if you don't think AOTC will make at least $300 million, I mean come on. You guys realize that there has been inflation even since 2002 don't you? If it didn't make $300 million it would have to completely bomb, and I mean completely. AOTC made $310 million when tickets were another 30 cents cheaper or so at least (as a national average).

AOTC made $110 million in four days if I recall correctly. That shouldn't be too tough to beat, just because that's how these things work, opening weekends get bigger (even between TPM and AOTC despite AOTC's overall far inferior performance). Just for the sake of argument, what if you had an AOTC-like opening with TPM-like staying power? Just the best of both worlds as far as Star Wars goes, and that's not completely impossible. Star Wars has opened big, Star Wars has held on strong before, so it's not the most impossible to imagine thing. If even ROTS opened with exactly $80 million in 3 days and $110 million in 4, like AOTC, then held on as strong as TPM, it would make $560 million. Now of course if somehow it opened a bit better, say $88 million in 3 days (the Spider-Man franchise has done this several times and has less fans than Star Wars) and $125 million in 4 days, and held on as well as TPM with declines in the mid-20% to mid-30% range, then it would beat Titanic...

Just food for thought, since that's not very likely. But if you don't expect this movie to make $400 million, you'll probably be very excited when it does. I'd take odds betting that it will make a solid $400M.

 

At the moment, I'm hopeful for $350m US, $700m Worldwide. There's definitely a buzz just starting to build, and the following months should give us a good handle on just how strong that is.

 

As a film critic and box office follower myself, I'm glad to read the speculation on this thread!

My guess is that it will fall somewhere in the $350 - $400 million range. I feel that the fact its the last of the prequel series, the darkest (which will attract prequel haters for at least one viewing), and has Vader and Chewie and the links to the OT will make it much higher than AOTC. I doubt it will surpass TPM since that was the return of Star Wars, but I'm hoping it might.

The competition at this point will be Batman Begins (early look is VERY good) (mid-June), Fantastic Four (late June), Mission Impossible III (late June.) However, the only big one of these that stands a chance is Batman, and ALL are in June or later.

King Kong by Jackson is late 2005, and could steal technical Oscars and the number one box office spot though...

we'll see...

 

I don't think King Kong is going to be anything special at all. A lot of fun? Sure, maybe. But even ESB will puts its effects to shame. Then again, the Oscars absolutely do not care at all what movie has the best effects, I mean if The Matrix, with a pitiful 500 effects shots, can beat The Phantom Menace where entire worlds and creatures were created (and it broke like at least 5 benchmarks in effects), with 2,100 effects shots, then for all I know a movie like Blair Witch Project III could get the effects Oscar instead of ROTS, lol.

None of those movies coming out in June will be that competitive really. I mean think about it, May 19 is about mid-May, so the movie has 3-4 weekends without too bad of competition probably. Then after that point the competition won't steal much away from the types of people who go later in the run, like more crowd shy individuals (my friend and personal trainer is like this, he waits weeks until he sees something, he's just about to see Spider-Man 2). Also it's the kids and their parents and fans like us who keep going back and keep things strong in weekends 5, 6, 7, etc.

If ROTS had one month without any serious competition, if it really was great and the word of mouth was overwhelmingly positive (even more so than AOTC I suppose), then it could clear $350 million to $400 million inside of that first month before the competition even had a chance. TPM made $300 million in 28 days, 5 years ago...

 

First off, I COMPLETELY agree with your comment on how arbitrary technical Oscars are, I still write in my annual column on the Oscars how biased the Academy was in giving the Visual Effects (and others) awards to Matrix for 1999; I'm a HUGE Matrix fan but it was clear that TPM had FAR superior visual effects regardless what anyone thought about the rest of the film.

Bottom line, what's fun about summer (and sometimes holiday) movie seasons is its box office is unpredictable, this year everyone thought Shrek II would do very well and maybe even pass the original, but NO one thought it would pass TPM and most likely ET before its run is over; alas, few predicted a teaming up between Hanks and Speilberg (Terminal) would result in just around $75 (so far even lower than AI!)

So who knows, but I agree, ROTS obviously has a HUGE fan base, and $400 is possible, it'll be fun to watch.

 

This is outrageous!

A film critic who enjoys SW!

 

I'm also a reviewer, but I would prefer the term film historian and reviewer over critic.

I'm on the Rotten Tomatoes database and my site is currently at www.OrbitalReviews.com if you're interested. I haven't had time to update it much lately to be honest, but when I finish college I will be doing that about half of the day, studying film before I go to grad school. I've always loved SW, it was what made me get into reviewing and wanting to do film.

I also love The Matrix. In fact it is in my top 10 best non-SW films of all time. But the comparison of TPM's effects to The Matrix's effects, well, first off really belongs in another discussion, but second is just ridiculous. You're comparing a film with some very attention-grabbing effects that are very "whoa" worthy to a film that actually relies on effects to tell its story. I mean TPM needed effects to create worlds and creatures that didn't exist. That much cannot be said of The Matrix, which would still have been a very thoughtful, brilliant film with a lot less awesome effects. It may not have appealed to as many people but I loved the movie for its philosophy (basically a film version of the "brain in vats" idea), not its effects. But then again I'm actually a philosophy major...

The thing with my Star Wars viewing count is that I always tell myself I won't see the next SW movie that many times in theaters, but it becomes competition to me, and it becomes like a minor addiction. I thought I'd see TPM 10 times in theaters, then I realized that if I saw it a few times opening day and again two times that weekend, I'd already be at 4, and by the time I saw it like two more times in the next week I'd be at 6, and that would mean only watching it 4 times the entire rest of the summer, which seemed absurd to me. So viewing after viewing and I hit 50, it really wasn't that tough. I even had a stretch where I had surgery and didn't see it for 13 days in early August. Then again I had many days where I saw it twice, or even three times once. With AOTC, I swore I wouldn't watch it that many times, but again I came to TFN and checked peoples' viewing counts and it became a competition to me to see if I could beat them all, and I was on another forum competing against a good friend, BuffJedi (pretty far from a nerd, lol, but he's a great fan), and him and I were going at it, he led most of the way, I was up to 10 viewings behind, but then I kept plugging away and eventually passed him. On that forum I won both the TPM and AOTC viewing titles. The funniest part is that with TPM I had lost 40 to 34. I saw TPM 34 times in the summer and early fall of 1999. But then they released it again for charity -- I saw it 6 times in 7 days. So I almost tied at 40, but the girl I was competing against saw it twice. So again I conceded defeat and said good competition, I lost 42 to 40. But then they released it to my local dollar theater (really $2 per ticket at the time) and I saw it 10 times in 3 weeks. She didn't see it again at all. So I won easily in the end, 50 vs. 42. I always have that happen because I'm slow and steady.

The problem I find, and maybe some of you guys can do something about this, is that too many fans see the newest prequel 10 total times and FOUR or FIVE of those are in the first week! So you wonder why the money is front-loaded? Well think about it. For me, I watched TPM more times in August than I did in May, or June, for that matter. That's why in May if you looked at, say, every fan on TFN and on the other forum I was posting at, I'd be about rank #187 or whatever in viewings (with 8), but then I kept going at a rate of 2-3 per week every single week and by the end of June I was more like top 50, and by the end of July top 25, and by the end of August top 10, and by the end of the year top 5, etc. So in other words if you don't want to see the box office plummet, well you guys have the power to help, too. Don't watch it 6 times in the first 4 days and then only 4 times in the next 4 months