[HCSF] box office predictions

Whoa, I'd proudly shake you by the hand if it wasn't for the fact we're thousands of miles apart

I don't expect RotS to have outstanding legs...that doesn't mean they won't be good, but I think it'll open bigger than AOTC - each SW film in turn so far has had a bigger opening than before. I don't think it can get more than about 3600 screens at an absolute maximum...I'd be more inclined to believe about 3400.

I think it'll be all about the opening and the 2nd weekend. A nice opening and a fall of no worse than, say, 40% for the 2nd, and it could have a good shot at that $400m target. Me, I'll just be happy if it passes $618m Worldwide...that would take the whole Saga past the $4bn mark

And really, of course, what it makes at the box office is very much secondary to how good it is as a film. It could make $700m, but if it sucks I'll be disappointed...and if it's absolutely fantastic, I doubt I'll be too upset if it doesn't even break $300m.

 

Now THAT'S systematic.

 

I am with Ghost_Jedi and JB Fett. I think many people will be eager to see what GL says is the last Star Wars film ever. I think that, domestically, ROTS will top $425M and could close in on a B worldwide. People have been waiting to see Darth Vader for more than 20 years.

Bee

 

We need to get everyone organised here, so we can alter the weekend grosses at our whim

All stay away and give it a 70% drop in the 2nd weekend...then all rush back and see it on week 4 and confuse the hell out of the analyists with a 300% rise...well okay, maybe it's not that simple, lol.

 

Damon, I like your signature -- "I love all 5 Star Wars films. Live with it." hehe, agreed.

I agree that the second weekend is where it's at. I fully expect that it will have good staying power, though. All Star Wars movies have had good staying power for the most part, but AOTC had the worst so far for whatever reasons. I mean the movie certainly got better word of mouth and reviews among fans than TPM, but that did not seem to matter too much. $80 million first weekend, $310 million overall, no better than "average" staying power unfortunately. TPM, $64 million three-day weekend, $430 million gross, amazing staying power (better than almost any blockbuster film in the modern era, which is all you can compare to -- films opening above $40 million, or above $50 million).

As I said, although it's too much to ask probably, AOTC opening with TPM staying power. That'd rock

 

Absolutely, heh. I just feel it's a different environment now for movies even from back in '99 when TPM came out. I would think a reduction in the 'kiddie audience' could affect it...it's very important not to underestimate just how strong an effect these repeat family views had for films such as Shrek 2 and others.

You should check out the Box Office Thread in JCC sometime, I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on other films

As for the sig, that was my original line when I first registered here...I'd added three more over time, but other people said they liked it too so I've always kept it

 

I'm not really certain anymore. It could go either way, to be honest. The slambang darkness of the final prequel could either win back every last "mature" SW fan(I put mature in quotations because I question the intellect and reasoning of people who think they're more worthy than the person who gave them the dream of a galaxy far, far away), or it could be so grisly that it will scare away the young viewers that made the first two prequels very successful.

TPM, which was the brightest of the saga, had TREMENDOUS legs(And legs always come from great word-of-mouth--did movies like Batman & Robin and Godzilla have that? NO. Unlike these two, TPM was ACTUALLY an audience favorite despite "professional" critics and whiny old cynics who should be eaten) at the box office. AOTC, though it was considered way superior to TPM(Just like ESB to ANH back then), grossed less than the predecessor(Again, like ESB to ANH).

Logically, you'd expect the prequels to follow the same pattern as the originals... but here's the kicker: ROTJ was much lighter than the first two in the OT. ROTS will be VASTLY darker than the first two in the PT. This could actually mean that ROTS will gross less than the first two prequels.

I hope this isn't the case, but it's possible. I'm hoping for the best, and bracing for the worst...

Ahhh. Either mind, I'll remain a Star Wars fan until the end of time

P.S. Kickass sig, Damon.

 

Actually, aside from the Ewoks I think ROTJ had quite a bit of darkness. Yoda's death, the confrontation with the Emperor, Vader's death. It has some of the darkest moments in the saga. I think that the Death Star duel is probably the darkest moment in the OT. Especially when Luke goes bananas.

 

And I'll still say $200 million.

 

Let's see how much hype it gets after the trailer breaks next week.

 

Perhaps I expected dancing in the streets but I don't see it.

And I still say $200 million.

 

It's from now when we'll see the hype really beginning to build. Technically it started with the teaser trailer around the same time as the OT DVD release...but that was kind of the 'first wave'.

I expect the second wave to hit big within 3 months of the actual release, around March.

 

What about Spielberg's "War Of The Worlds"?

 

I couldn't even begin to guess how much money it will make world-wide, but i have no doubt it shall enter into the top ten of the most money-making movies of all time. hopefully it may even give Titanic a bit of a push down the list.

 

I hope so too, it COULD happen but I don't know if it will. But I will guess that it will at least make 350 milllion in the u.s. 200 million? come on, this is the last Star Wars movie ever and I don't think it will do nearly that bad, I mean Hitck has already made like 100 million, so you tihnk it will only do twice as good as that?

 

I don't think there is going to be any competition for Star Wars until the end of June when Batman is released followed by War of the Worlds comes out. A week later is Fantastic 4, which I expect will tank. Between the sales of the dvd boxed set, the hype has really started. I am going to stick w/ an opening of 120-125 mil, and I would not be suprised by the end of the 2nd weekend for it to top 200 million, US alone. There is a good possibility it will pass 350 mil in the US. There is a distinct possibility Star Wars will be # 1 for a month, when Batman begins is released. Not even sure how the rest of the world will add to this, as I dont see anything opening in the other markets that could compete w/ Star Wars.


Brilliant!

 

i think rots will definitely out-gross all of the other summer releases. i wonder though, if the harry potter movie might give it a run for its money (no pun intended). i mean i know that hp comes out many months afterwards and wont directly challenge it, but it could still take the throne from star wars as the highest grossing movie of the year.

after all, in 2002 aotc was the 4th highest grossing movie of the year, the first time ever a star wars film wasnt in first place. i hope rots can retake the top spot.

 

IMHO, it will make more money than any of the other Star Wars films.

First, its Star Wars so its gonna make a ton. I havent seen too many GREAT movie in the past couple years, and I think this one will look good to most people.
Plus, I keep hearing that this will be "the best Star Wars movie ever". If thats true, I think people will go out and see it again and again.

Lucas always said he didnt think this one would make as much because its "darker".
I always thought that would help.

I seriously doubt ROTS will get a reputation as being "too much for little kids". I'm sure there will be a few freaked out parents who regret taking the family. But we're talking about money, and those kids who are freaked out still had to pay to get in.
I dont think a lot of parents would take the time to see the movie before they take their kids, so I dont think he'll lose a huge chunk of his audience or anything.
And if mom and dad do see the movie first, and decide its too much for little Timmy, they already bought two tickets.

Its gonna make a TON.

 

[Warning and apologies on length]

Amen Arrow. Last August I said $425M domestically. At the time, it may have been wishful thinking, but based on watching the teaser trailer and from what excitement I have heard regarding the upcoming theatrical trailer, I will stand by that prediction for two main reasons. Darkness is not a deterrent and the birth of Vader has too much drawing power.


Darkness won?t be a deterrent to parents:

I don?t think the movie?s darkness is a deterrent. I repeat earlier comments that Star Wars has always had a stigma of only incorporating a certain acceptable level of violence to mostly faceless beings yielding a PG rating. There is not a Braveheart level of blood and gore and those who do die are mostly stormtroopers, droid soldiers, Geonosians, and the occasional rebel soldier. Based on nothing more than my experience in theaters, I don?t think sci-fi violence is a large issue to parents. I saw some pretty young children in movies like Troy, Alexander, The Passion and those all depicted people in bloody deaths. Obviously, parents will individually censor what they see as unfit for their children, but I suspect that if they let their kids see Achilles slaughter Trojans, Alexander kill Persians or Jesus get crucified, they won?t hesitate to let their kids see a few Jedi and Younglings die knowing the film has a PG rating. (This assumes ROTS actually gets a PG rating) And people who don?t fall into the age range of parental censorship can deal with the darkness because?.


Vader can draw a crowd:

People are going to love watching the completion of Anakin Skywalker?s journey and seeing him finally transition and materialize into Darth Vader. During the OT, Vader personified evil. I don?t remember having any sympathy for him. His love for his son and subsequent betrayal of his master always seemed a little off ? I mean, it just didn?t feel right to me. Here is this guy who did anything the Emperor said for twenty years. Now a kid shows up that he?s seen once before and he is willing to throw the past 20 years away? The reason I feel it fits now is because of the prequels? portrayal of Anakin. The prequel trilogy has shown a very different Anakin Skywalker than I had ever envisioned. I used to picture a cocky, arrogant Jedi fueled by a selfish lust for power. Instead, I see a young kid torn from his mother, forced to deal with the death of his guardian, Qui-Gon, obligated to carry this Jedi burden (bringing balance to the Force), and holding his mother?s tortured body in his arms as she died. Add all that to losing Padme (to her death or suspected death) and I think you have basically a young guy with good intentions who was exposed to a lot of bad events, was manipulated by a truly evil man, and ultimately was blinded by and chose the ?quick and easy path? to what he felt could make him the ?most powerful Jedi ever? allowing his good intentions to come to fruition. Only after seeing what he meant for himself to become through his son?s bravery against the Emperor does he make the right decision that eluded him for all those years. It is the thought of witnessing Anakin?s fall to the dark side and the addition of the missing piece of the journey from total innocence, to complete malice and to repentance that makes me believe ROTS will be tremendously successful.


People may love a happy ending, but just because this movie ends darkly doesn't mean it won't be loved. In the back of people's minds will be the memory of how the whole saga ends - happily ever after... This movie just adds more weight to the trials and sacrifices we all remember from the OT. IMHO, people will want to see ROTS to complete Anakin?s journey that was started for them more than 20 years ago.



Bee

 

350-415Million USA

Another 345-400Million Int

for a grand totel World Wide of 695-815Million Dollers

International Higher then Many Expect due to a Weak Doller.

 

I wanted to bump this thread, and see if people's predictions have changed following there viewing of the trailer.


Please Remember this is HCSF, so no actual discussion of the Trailer.





Brilliant!

 

I've changed my mind, it's definately going to be up there.

I said $200 million for the US before , I now say at least $300 million.

 

There are many, many people who have lost faith or been turned off by the PT. I think quite a few of them are willing to forget about that for this film and still want to see Darth Vader born. Regardless of the bashing of the last 6 years, the buzz for ROTS should still be considerable.

 

I'm concerned that the violence and mature themes could actually weaken RotS' B.O. bank.

AotC's recieved "better" reviews than TPM but wasn't as kiddie friendly and I think that is why it plunked compared the others.

I'd like to say that RotS' domestic final will be $380 and looking at the trailer it definetly deserves it (well I'd really like to see it gross $500+ ) but I think $280 is likely.

Let's hope that non-SW fans that haven't been interested in the PT or OT will go to the theatres to see this and that could lead to a nice boost.

 

Actually, I think the darkness will only boost the box office. People are angry at the PT because it is too light. Some of them will come back for a look at evil and violence. And kids will still go see it. Hell, I saw kids under 10 at Kill Bill. With their parents...go figure.