[HCSF] box office predictions

So the new Premiere magazine is predicting it to be the #1 movie of the summer at, get this...


$400 million


The next being "Madagascar" at $240 million



Wow.

 

You know, the film seems to be generating some interest in the general public, which it will need to crash the 400 mark. Us crazy fans can only drive so much volume...

I think that the whole 'this movie is dark' factor will drive the box office up quite a bit, contrary to what Lucas seems to think. That's what people want these days. PG-13 can only help. Kids will still go.

 

Hell, I saw kids under 10 at Kill Bill. With their parents...go figure.

That's just wrong.



Anyway, I think we might see 300. If it's as dark as it looks like it will be, people will like it but might not go back to see it a second time...

Mr. P

 

I say around $350-$400 million, it'll be bigger than AOTC but not quite as big as TPM (even though it appears to be more popular and will hopefully be a better film) simply because I don't think you'll ever quite top the 'Return of Star Wars' buzz that TPM had going for it.

Though, if ROTS is as well-accepted as some think, then with future re-releases it's total might rise...

 

i say near or alittle over 1 billion U.S dollars worldwide.

 

Wait, TPM (the worst of the new trilogy in my opinion) made more than all other ones of the new trilogy?

 

I agree that the 'Return of Star Wars' buzz TPM had going for it won't be topped. Had AotC been as critically-acclaimed as, for example, the LotR films...then there would have been a chance for Revenge to top $430 million because the impact of the previous film has a large effect on the success of the next one and although most fans consider AotC superior to TPM, it still recieved the same general criticism from critics and most of the public.

Revenge can overcome that because it is unique. It is the last Star Wars movie to ever be made and it is arguably the most anticipated of any SW movie as far as story goes. The build-up to TPM was all hype, in my opinion. Its the actual fall of Anakin that most people want to see and if RotS can muster up a comeback with the critics then it has a decent shot at crossing $400 million.

My predictions: if its lambasted by critics and people are disappointed with it (unlikely, I think bad reviews or not the public will enjoy this one the most since Empire came out) then it will top out around $350-375 million.

If it rebounds (in the public's eye) from the faults of the last two films and sees no major competition for its first month, $400 million easy. Remember...AotC not only faced the 'middle act of a play syndrome' but was having to follow the hype for the return of Star Wars three years earlier and still face the reality it had no real climactic payoff compared to what people KNEW would be coming with Episode III. Aside from that, it faced major competition from Spider-Man among other films to smaller degrees. Look at the release schedule this time around...nothing wants to *touch* Revenge of the Sith.

If things continue at this rate, it will be the blockbuster of blockbusters. I really think this film alone will save the neck of the box office and its disappointing intake last year.

Darth. Vader. Thats at least $100 million right there from people who were turned off by Episode I...

 

400-500 million in the U.S., 600+ million outside the U.S.

Oh, and it breaks the first 4-days box office record.

 

I think bad reviews are a given, I really don't think there is anything Lucas can do to avoid that. Frankly, at this point the film itself almost doesn't even matter. His 'Me Vs The World' attitude pisses off so many people that critics take the opportunity to roast him no matter what he does. I would be willing to bet that half the critics have already written their reviews and are just waiting to hit 'send' on them.

As far as the 'last star wars ever' I wonder if the public believes that? Many who think Lucas is in this only for the money probably think there will be more in the future.

 

Update:

Premiere Magazine's Article on Summer Movies predicted each's box office, and they officially predicted ROTS' as 400 million, the highest of the summer, followed by Madagascar as the second and War of the Worlds as the third highest. Remains to be seen...

 

Hmm...did they do the same for TPM and/or AotC? Would be interesting if they did and were remotely accurate.

 

I'm thinking somewhere in the 300-350 million range. Remember, the darkest SW film prior to this was ESB and it had the lowest numbers of all five films to date. I'm expecting that trend to continue (especially considering the whole PG13 rating thing).

 

I'm going with 350 million for domestic. Add another 500 million for international.

 

im going with 370 million

 

Glad to see this thread back. I think the movie is going to kill based on the early buzz. 350-400 million.

 

I'm bumping up my prediction to $375M Domestic thanks to the positive buzz brewing. Hopefully it can make even more .

 

Man. I had totally forgotten we had one of these.

I'm currently running the Box Office threads over at JCC (for non-ROTS stuff) and in 3SA (where I just avoid the banners and everyone's nice enough not to spoil me ).

Would you like me to collect up the results here and add them all to the big TFN ROTS predictions list?

 

That'd be interesting. I'd like to see what the spoiled folk are saying.

 

When I get home tonight, I'll get the lists together. It's just a case of going through this thread and adding the predictions to the 3SA list.

These are the catagories we've got. Feel free to put in predictions for as much or as little as you like, and try to be as accurate as possible. It doesn't look as cool if you 'win' with a prediction of $200-$600m in the US for example

Opening day
Weekend (Fri-Sun)
4-day (Thurs-Sun)
US Total
International Total
Worldwide Total

 

I think if a very good concensus by a wide margin say 85% (not definitely below 70%) in RT; ROTS, will start big, lose steam then pick up again and hang on for a while say 5 mths). My guess 500 million in the US and 700 overseas.

 

Generally speaking, I'd say the 3SA predictions are higher. They seem to have much more $400+ predictions then here, where the majority seems to be in the $300 range (including mine).

 

Here's my specifics:

Opening day = 15 million
Weekend (Fri-Sun) = 65 million
4-day (Thurs-Sun) = 80 million
US Total = 350 million
International Total = 500 million
Worldwide Total = 850 million

 

Cheers Kesel

I've collected together some information on the previous 5 SW films, in case they're of use to anyone in putting together their ROTS predictions. While it's certainly nice to hope that ROTS will break all records, it might be handy to look at these figures and bear them in mind. Of course, there's a marked difference between the kind of money the OT and PT films pull in over the first few days, because it's a very different climate these days at the cinemas. But I've included it all for reference.

To be honest, if ROTS managed to reach about $350 in the US that'd be a pretty major success for several reasons. I hope it soars as high as possible, but remember than $300 million dollars is a huge return no matter how you look at it.

Anyway...here are the figures, in order of gross rather than release :

*Opening*
AOTC 30.1m
TPM 28.5m
ROTJ 6.2m
ESB 1.3m
ANH 0.3m

*Weekend*
AOTC 80.0m
TPM 64.8m
ROTJ 23.0m
ESB 4.9m
ANH 1.5m

*4-day*
AOTC 110.2m
(the others all had Wednesday openings)

*US Total*
ANH 461.0m
TPM 431.1m
AOTC 310.7m
ROTJ 309.3m
ESB 290.5m

*Int Total*
TPM 493.4m
AOTC 338.8m
ANH 314.4m
ESB 247.9m
ROTJ 165.8m

*Worldwide Total*
TPM 924.5m
ANH 775.4m
AOTC 649.5m
ESB 538.4m
ROTJ 475.1m

 

Opening day = 32 million
Weekend (Fri-Sun) = 95 million
4-day (Thurs-Sun) = 115 million
US Total = 465 million
International Total = 550 million
Worldwide Total = 1.015 billion


I am slightly upgrading my number from my 8/3/04 post but basing that upgrade on my post of 2/6/05.


Bee

 

Right now, since it is likely to be the best of the prequels in the minds of the public and critics, I would say it is a shoe-in to top AOTC. It will also be buoyed by the marketing blitz that is currently occurring, much much larger than AOTC, and it does not have too much competion like AOTC did with Spiderman. However, even though it will be a much better film in most people's mind than TPM was, it does not have the level of excitement surrounding it.:

Opening day = 35 million
Weekend (Fri-Sun) = 85 million
4-day (Thurs-Sun) = 100 million
US Total = 395 million
International Total = 600 million
Worldwide Total = 950 million