How do you think AOTC will fair against other summer movies?

Discussion in 'Revenge of the Sith (Non-Spoilers)' started by Leavethattome, Mar 16, 2002.

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  1. Leavethattome Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Mar 10, 2002
    star 3
    Star Wars opens May 16, less than a month later comes Scooby Doo, and let's not forget all but two weeks before that is Spider man.

    I think Spider-man will sadly make more than AOTC in the opening weekend, and perhaps for the year.

    Scooby Doo could be a safe enough distance from AOTC to knock it from the top spot is Spider-man doesn't do it first.

    What are your thoughts?
  2. Twink_Kee Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Oct 1, 2001
    star 5
  3. ST-TPM-ASF-TNE Moderator Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Jun 27, 2001
    star 6
    [face_plain]

    Scooby Doo will only be able to earn enough money to buy a box of scooby snacks when it goes against AOTC.

    And I seriously doubt Spiderman will be able to beat AOTC in the box office market


    ST
  4. Leavethattome Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Mar 10, 2002
    star 3
    Overall AOTC will make more, but honestly I think Spider-man has a very good chance of taking the box office earnings.

    A lot of people weren't happy with TPM, and they know they can always rent AOTC.

    Whereas there has NEVER been Spider-man for them (good) and they wanna go see that. ANd if Spider-man is good, it'll take out AOTC.
  5. Gay-LenKenobi Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Sep 20, 2000
    star 5
    I might get around to seeing Spidey. Most people I know aren't expecting to see it opening weekend, though. I think AOTC will clean up since it's a Thursday release and also international.
  6. Leavethattome Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Mar 10, 2002
    star 3
    yeah, but people haven't forgiven TPM, and if Spidey's good, it could definately rule the box office for the year.

    I think in the long run AOTC will obviously make more because it's star wars, and AOTC will have to have the word of mouth, if no word of mouth I see Spidey being the most powerful movie of 2002.
  7. SWfan2002 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 28, 2002
    star 4
    Keep in mind that Spider-Man is rated PG-13. That should give AOTC an advantage, assuming it is PG.
  8. Leavethattome Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Mar 10, 2002
    star 3
    Yeah but, I dunno.
    Spider-man is Spider-man. Same can be said for star wars, but.....I dunno.

    Either way I think the Power Puff girl movie will be the big winner this summer.
  9. THE_DOODE Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Dec 3, 2001
    star 4
    they will both be big but i bet AOTC wins out
  10. The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth

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    Jan 27, 2000
    star 10
    Scooby Doo's advanced word has been absoultely terrible . It's got FReedie Prinze Jr in it for heavens sake! He's one of the worst actors in existence (he could probably try out for a gatewat commercial, what with that blank stare and open-jaw look he constantly gives..much like a cow chewing grass on the side of a road), there hasn't beena year in recent times where Freddie hasn't been in a movie thats been on the top ten worst films of a year list, hehe.

    Powerpuff girls movie will no doubt make the most profit vs. it's budget.

    Spiderman will open big at 60+ million dollars for its opening weekend, and pull in about 40+ million the next weekend.

    When AOTC opens, it will open to 80-90 million, but i doubt it will beat TPM's opening weekend..especially since it's opening one day later (thursday) than TPM (opened on a wednesday). Spiderman will also be eating at it, unlike TPM, which was more or less clear (The Mummy had already done the majority of its take at that point in time). Espect Spidey to pull in at least 15 to 20 million that weekend.

    As for the long run, it'll be hard to say really. It will be a tight race but I think AOTC will win in the end.
  11. JediProphet Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 1, 2002
    star 2
    Y'know as a fellow Spider-Man fan and Star Wars fan I'm really torn here.

    My favorite comic book hero has always been Spidey, ever since I was able to read. But Star Wars has also been a big part of my life.

    Spider-Man's a comic book first, so I already know what the story will be. But Star Wars is a movie first and since I'm spoiler-free, AotC should really be more powerful for me.

    In the end though, AotC will most likely beat Spider-Man.
  12. metalgearrx Jedi Youngling

    Member Since:
    Mar 10, 2002
    star 1
    I'll make a bold prediction and say that Spiderman will make more than AOTC domestically, but will lose out globally. I still want to see AOTC more than Spidey, though.
  13. AdamBertocci Manager

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    Member Since:
    Feb 3, 2002
    star 7
    AOTC will rule the box office. Thus speaketh Adam.
  14. Leavethattome Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Mar 10, 2002
    star 3
    metalgearrx I agree with you.



  15. Sumbudy-Wan_Kenobi Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Mar 13, 2002
    star 1
    One the one hand, Spider-Man fans (myself included) have been waiting for this movie our whole lives. The business will be there, no doubts there. It will be AOTC's biggest competition. Plus, let's not forget that Empire Strikes Back grossed LESS than Star Wars when it came out. To this date, TESB still hasn't crossed 300 mil and it is considered the best Star Wars flick to date. If AOTC is more darkly themed like TESB, it could keep the kiddies from seeing it over and over again (I gotta admit, when I was younger, I preferred ROTJ over TESB. It wasn't until I got older that I realized how FLAWLESS Empire was). The Clones has stuff like this going against it.

    However, on the other hand, as disappointed as a vocal group was about TPM, it was still a box office behemeth. If the word of mouth on the Clones is good, it has the possibility of having better Box office legs than TPM did (and it had considerable legs, despite what some of it's critics would have you believe). Box Office is so unpredictable, but I would be suprised if AOTC grossed more than TPM, and I would be suprised if Spider-Man grossed more than AOTC.

    I know where my money's going. It'll go to both Spidey and the Clones, but I'd see a Star Wars flick at least four times if it SUCKED :) And I don't expect the Clones to suck, so I'm sure I'll be seing it numerous times throughout the summer, as will others like me.
  16. Leavethattome Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Mar 10, 2002
    star 3
  17. NiktosRule Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 8, 2001
    star 4
    I think they will both rack up the money and end up at around the same earnings. My feeling is that AOTC will beat out Spider Man by about 10-20 million dollars.

    As for Scooby Doo, well lets just say that it doesn't have a chance in hell at competing with either of the two movies.
  18. PruneF8ce Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Feb 5, 2002
    star 4
    I have a feeling that AOTC will make a ton of money, not that it matters.
  19. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    The only movies that might make more than AOTC are the next Harry Potter movie or Lord of the Rings - The Two Towers, though I think HP will make a bit less than the first one.

    AOTC will KILL all the Spring/Summer movies. Spiderman will probably make between $100 and $200 million but I think AOTC will at least be in the same range as TPM, it will definitely make it past the ESB/ROTJ range ($290 - $309 million).

    Spiderman will have a good $50-60 million dollar weekend opening, maybe a bit more, AOTC will make $100 million on the first 4 days.







  20. Leavethattome Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Mar 10, 2002
    star 3
    I'm thinking AOTC will take longer than Spider man to make money.




    Scooby Doo $117 mill opening night.
  21. Jedi knight Pozzi Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Apr 2, 2000
    star 6
    Was anyone as shocked as me, when Crossroads didn't make $500 million on it's opening weekend?

    What do you mean no? ;)
  22. Leavethattome Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Mar 10, 2002
    star 3
    Crossroads did make $500.


    Or was that just in my mind?



    Here's a new question: Should Britney Spears be in Episode 3?
  23. The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth

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    Member Since:
    Jan 27, 2000
    star 10
    Beyond May, there isn't too much to worry about competing against AOTC directly. In June we have Austin Powers 3, which will no doubt make a ton of money but won't be anywhere near AOTC or Spidey. July will bring MIB2, which could do extremely well if it's anywhere near as popular as the first one. But really, MIB2 probably threatens Spidey more than AOTC, in terms of overall gross.
  24. darthlebowski72 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Oct 5, 2001
    star 5
    AOTC is going to make its bucks over the long haul. Spiderman, MIB II, Scooby, Austin Powers III and all the others are only going to make their money in a short period of time (i.e. 2 to 3 weeks) AOTC will kill at the box office because of the re-draw value.
  25. Achtung_Bubba Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Nov 9, 2001
    star 1
    The thing is, Spider-Man has Spidey-Sense. If some thug tries to hit the guy with a two-by-four, he senses it and blocks the attempt.

    If a runaway truck is heading right for the Web-Slinger, he feels it coming and leaps out of the way.

    But, Star Wars isn't a guy with a stick. Star Wars isn't an tractor trailer.

    Star Wars is a Death Star, a battle station with enough firepower to destroy an entire planet.

    Let's see Spider-Man dodge that.

    In all honesty, very few franchises could compete with Star Wars, and I honestly don't think Spider-Man is one of them. Lord of the Rings, Harry Potter, and that's about it.

    Specifically, comic book movies haven't actually done phenomenally well. Let's look at the stats, from BoxOfficeGuru.com's Film Database:

    DOMESTIC GROSS, Millions

    $251 - Batman ('89)
    $250 - Men in Black
    $184 - Batman Forever
    $163 - Batman Returns
    $158 - X-Men
    $107 - Batman & Robin
    $ 70 - Blade
    $ 55 - Spawn
    $ 51 - The Crow
    $ 47 - The Rocketeer
    $ 32 - The Shadow
    $ 30 - Mystery Men
    $ 18 - The Crow: City of Angels
    $ 2 - Steel

    (The Superman movies were released prior to 1989 and are not included. But none of the movies appear on Movieweb.com's list of highest (unadjusted) domestic grosses, a list that goes from Snow White and Gone With the Wind to Harry Potter and Fellowship of the Ring. So, even the first Superman grossed less than $172 million.)

    (Howard the Duck was also released prior to 1989, but COME ON. :D)

    Now, Men in Black, X-Men, and the Batman films all did very well, but The Phantom Menace did better - pulling in $431 million.

    Once again:

    $431M - Star Wars I : The Phantom Menace
    $251M - Batman ('89)
    $250M - Men in Black
    $158M - X-Men

    (It's worth noting that X-Men isn't on the same level as MiB and Batman. Certainly it did well, but it was more an example of a movie doing better than expected - not a movie breaking all records.)

    For Spider-Man to even compete with Attack of the Clones, Attack of the Clones will have to do far worse than The Phantom Menace - and Spider-Man will have to do much better than X-Men (reaching Batman/MiB levels).

    I believe AOTC will actually do better than TPM; for no other reason, its trailers look more exciting. It certainly won't do noticeably worse. The theory that bad blood about TPM will severely hurt AOTC makes no sense considering how well the critically panned film did in theaters, as a video, and as a DVD.

    And Spider-Man won't do better than X-Men, for a couple key reasons:

    1. X-Men is the more popular comic book, in terms of sales of individual titles and collective series.

    2. X-Men is a darker comic book and appears to be a darker film (see also: Tim Burton's Batman).

    3. X-Men has a big name perfectly cast: Patrick Stewart as Professor X (see also: Jack Nicholson's Joker). Tobey McGuire as Spider-Man? Kirsten Dunst as Mary Jane? Good choices, maybe, but not instantly recognized as absolutely perfect.

    Remember: the blockbusters of space myth (Star Wars), fantasy (Lord of the Rings), and comic books (Batman) are THE EXCEPTIONS, not the rules.

    Eventually, a comic book movie will pull in Star Wars-level numbers, but this one does not appear to be that movie, particularly when meeting a Star Wars film head on in less than two weeks after opening.


    The other summer movies?

    The Sum of All Fears? Ben Afleck. Instead of Harrison Ford. Doomed.

    Spirit: Stallion of Cimarron? It's the latest animated film from Dreamworks. It's NOT computer animation, nobody's heard of it, and it's about a horse. Next.

    Scooby-Doo? Have we learned nothing from two live-action Flinstones movies AND Rocky & Bullwinkle?

    Powerpuff Girls? Should be as clever as the TV series, but I doubt enough teenagers or adults will be attracted to the film.

    Lilo & Stitch? Disney's answer to Spirit: another non-CG animated film that nobody's heard of or anticipating.

    Austin Powers 3? There must
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