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How much wiIl AOTC gross in its opening weekend? (Thu - Sun)

Discussion in 'Revenge of the Sith (Non-Spoilers)' started by Darth23, Apr 14, 2002.

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How much wiIl AOTC gross in its opening weekend? (Thu - Sun)

Poll closed May 15, 2002.
$40 million or less 3 vote(s) 2.0%
$40 - 60 million 3 vote(s) 2.0%
$60 - 80 million 34 vote(s) 22.7%
$80 - 100 million 58 vote(s) 38.7%
Over $100 million 52 vote(s) 34.7%
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  1. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
  2. opinion Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 2001
    star 4
    ...i pick 60 to 80...cause i say so...
  3. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    Background Info:

    The Phantom Menace made $105 million from Wednesday to Sunday - and $64.8 million from Friday to Sunday. It opened in 2970 theaters.
  4. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    I started an Opening Weekend Box Office Contest

    Here.

    First prize is an AOTC poster.
  5. niennumb1 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Oct 10, 2001
    star 4
    I doubt you guys are gonna vote for something low on the scale of box office sales. The poll is kinda pointless, but I'll vote near $100mil like practically everyone else. I'm sure everyone here is counting on that anyway.
  6. Jedi knight Pozzi Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Apr 2, 2000
    star 6
    TPM criticism may have hurt it some, but after all the record breaking weekends last year I'll say, $60 - 80 million. :)
  7. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    I' d also like to mention that we saw the 'big movies' last year opening with 60+ million in 3 days.

    Harry Potter - $90.3 million (3 days)
    Pearl Harbor - $75.1 million (4 days) Memorial Day weekend
    Planet of the Apes - $68.5 million (3 days)
    Rush Hour 2 - $67.4 million (3 days)
    Monsters Inc - $62.5 million (3 days)
    Pearl Harbor - $59 million (3 days) Weekend only
    Jurassic Park 3 - $50.7 million (5 days)
    American Pie 2 - $45.1 million (3 days)


    Episode 2 opens on a Thursday, so it will have in effect two 4 day wekeends in a row.
    -------------

    "I doubt you guys are gonna vote for something low on the scale of box office sales. The poll is kinda pointless, but I'll vote near $100mil like practically everyone else. I'm sure everyone here is counting on that anyway. "


    The point of the poll is to try to guess what will actually happen, not to simply pick the highest number. You can also post your precise guess - and we'll se who cane the closest on May 20th.

    I'm going with:

    110.96 million for the 4 day period and 81.83 million for the 3 day weekend.

    Big numbers, but not a Harry Potter level opening.
  8. Duckman Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 21, 2000
    star 4
    It won't make less than 100 for a 4 day weekend.
  9. Radiohead Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Mar 31, 2002
    star 4
    It'll definitely make at least $60 million. If The Harry Potter movie made $90 million+ in 3 days, I would expect AOTC to make around the same, perhaps more.
  10. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    It's not a four-day holiday weekend though. Very few kids are out of school by the 16th. Thursday and Friday are workdays.

    TPM was a phenomenon in terms of people skipping work/school to see it opening day. AOTC is not going to have that level of hype or interest.

    Despite that, it's going to do well Thursday and Friday. Darth23's guess is not bad. Taking into account ticket price increases, 95-$100 million for the Thursday-Sunday period is not out of the question.
  11. Blue_Viper Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Jul 12, 2001
    star 1
    I think it will depend on how many screens it opens up on. TPM opened up on less screens that current 'blockbusters', and while there have been several movies that have surpassed TPM's monster weekend, they did it with more screens. So depending on whether they open AOTC on more screens or not will determine the weekend tally.

    If AOTC opens on TPM number type screens:
    Thurs-Sun: 80-90 mil
    Fri-Sun: 65-70 mil

    If AOTC opens on more screens:
    Thurs-Sun: 90-100 mil
    Fri-Sun: 80 mil
  12. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    TPM opened on a Wednesday and managed to make that the biggest single day ever (at the time). I think AOTC can manage at least one day close to the current single day record. I don't think it will have enough screens to take the single day mark, though - and I think that will be good for the movie in the long run.


    Theater counts:

    Phantom Menace (5/99)
    Opened - 2970
    Highest - 3126
    Opening Weekend - $64.81 million *(105.66 - 5 days)
    Total Gross - 431.09

    Pearl Harbor (5/01)
    Opened - 3214
    Highest - 3214
    Opening Weekend - $50.08 million *($75.17 - 4 days)
    Total Gross - $198.53 million

    LOTR - FOTR (12/01)
    Opened - 3359
    Highest - 3381
    Opening Weekend - $46.46 million *($74.37 - 5 days - Wed - Sun)
    Total Gross - $304.66 million *still playing

    The Mummy Returns (5/01)
    Opened - 3401
    Highest - 3553
    Opening Weekend - $68.13 million
    Total Gross - $202 million

    Harry Potter (10/01)
    Opened - 3672
    Highest - 3672
    Opening Weekend - $90.29 million
    Total Gross - $316.82 million

    Shrek (5/01)
    Opened - 3587
    Highest - 3715
    Opening Weekend - $42.34 million
    Total Gross - $267.65 million






  13. BenQ Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Jul 12, 2001
    star 2
    Hard to guess at this point, remember opening gross is largely dependant on the advertising campaign.
  14. Radiohead Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Mar 31, 2002
    star 4
    remember opening gross is largely dependant on the advertising campaign.

    Not necessarily. I remember TPM depending a lot less on television advertising compared to say Harry Potter or LOTR. A lot of their promotion came by way of licensing and that doesn't affect box office numbers.
  15. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    I don't think they actually ran any commercials for TPM until a few weeks into the run. There were tons of Pepsi, Kmart and Kentucky Taco Hut ads. I read an article from Lucas film stating that ads were done for audience awareness, and that everyone in the world knew TPM was coming, so they didn't need to spend money on ads.

    Plus there were news reports covering the trailers, the lines, and the hype.

    I don't think Episode 2 needs to many ads either. You defiitely won't see those constant banner ads up on Yahoo movies and other movie sites for weeks like we saw for Pearl Harbor.

    The other movies will be showing on Fox, talk shows are already asking Sameul L Jackson about Star Wars, even though he's promoting Changing Lanes, and the April 23 merchandise date will get a lot of ceverage for the movie. There will be a lot of Star Wars stuff on magazine covers again as well. And the hype shows and E! will continue to talk Star Wars.

    [Plus all the people going to the theater to see Scorpion King and Spiderman will see the posters, and maybe a trailer as well.


    I don't think there will be that many commercials for the movie at all.]

  16. thenink Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 2002
    star 2
    I don't think we'll be seeing much for AOTC tv ads either. Keep in mind that we are already seeing ads for movies that will be opening in May, and no SW ads in sight (yet).
  17. DarthHutt Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 2, 2000
    star 5
    It depends greatly on the number of theaters it opens on. If it's at least 3300 theaters, I think it can break $100 mil in 4 days.
  18. Jeff 42 Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Sep 14, 1998
    star 5
    I would be surprised if it doesn't hit $100 million in four days.
  19. NiktosRule Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 8, 2001
    star 4
    I'd bet around 60-80 million. I seriously doubt it will open higher than TPM or make more money than TPM no matter how good a movie it is.
  20. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    Wanna bet? :D

    Ticket prices are higher - and big movie open as big as ever.


    I think big numbers for Scorpion King and then for Spiderman 2 weeks later will be a sign of even bigger numbers for Episdoe 2. A lot of people going out to the theaters will be more likely to go out again for the next big event movie.
  21. Rogue-Leader Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Aug 6, 2001
    star 4
    I think AOTC will make as much as Harry Potter did.
  22. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    It would be hard for AOTC to beat Harry Potter's opening. Before HP opened, the Single Day record was 28 million (TPM) but Harry AVERAGED 30 million for 3 days! :eek:

    Part of that was because of the number of theaters, I don't think Episode 2 will be opening in nearly as many locations. I DO think AOTC will be able to hit 30 million at least once in 4 days - either opening day or Saturday.


  23. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    I have a theory that AOTC in 4 days will be able to (at least) double the Scorpion King's opening weekend.
  24. Darth_Darren Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Apr 16, 2002
    TPM didn't need many commercials because of all the free publicity the news stations gave them. The only time I ever saw any commercials was in the after noon when most kids are out of school and wathching afternoon TV. This time around, I don't think as many people are hyping AOTC like they did TPM, so I imagine we might see a few more commercials, but maybe not.

    I think it'll make about 90 million from Thursday thru Sunday. And that's going on history, since ROTJ made less than ESB, and ESB made less than ANH. AOTC is destined to make less than TPM because it's a sequel, but it will still make a killing opening weekend.
  25. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    Um, ROTJ made MORE then ESB.

    Star Wars films (unadjusted domestic gross, including re-releases)

    1977 - ANH - $461 million
    1980 - ESB - $290 million
    1983 - ROTJ -$309 million
    1999 - TPM - $431 milion
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