Discussion in 'Revenge of the Sith (Non-Spoilers)' started by Darth23, Apr 14, 2002.
...i pick 60 to 80...cause i say so...
The Phantom Menace made $105 million from Wednesday to Sunday - and $64.8 million from Friday to Sunday. It opened in 2970 theaters.
I started an Opening Weekend Box Office Contest
First prize is an AOTC poster.
I doubt you guys are gonna vote for something low on the scale of box office sales. The poll is kinda pointless, but I'll vote near $100mil like practically everyone else. I'm sure everyone here is counting on that anyway.
TPM criticism may have hurt it some, but after all the record breaking weekends last year I'll say, $60 - 80 million.
I' d also like to mention that we saw the 'big movies' last year opening with 60+ million in 3 days.
Harry Potter - $90.3 million (3 days)
Pearl Harbor - $75.1 million (4 days) Memorial Day weekend
Planet of the Apes - $68.5 million (3 days)
Rush Hour 2 - $67.4 million (3 days)
Monsters Inc - $62.5 million (3 days)
Pearl Harbor - $59 million (3 days) Weekend only
Jurassic Park 3 - $50.7 million (5 days)
American Pie 2 - $45.1 million (3 days)
Episode 2 opens on a Thursday, so it will have in effect two 4 day wekeends in a row.
"I doubt you guys are gonna vote for something low on the scale of box office sales. The poll is kinda pointless, but I'll vote near $100mil like practically everyone else. I'm sure everyone here is counting on that anyway. "
The point of the poll is to try to guess what will actually happen, not to simply pick the highest number. You can also post your precise guess - and we'll se who cane the closest on May 20th.
I'm going with:
110.96 million for the 4 day period and 81.83 million for the 3 day weekend.
Big numbers, but not a Harry Potter level opening.
It won't make less than 100 for a 4 day weekend.
It'll definitely make at least $60 million. If The Harry Potter movie made $90 million+ in 3 days, I would expect AOTC to make around the same, perhaps more.
It's not a four-day holiday weekend though. Very few kids are out of school by the 16th. Thursday and Friday are workdays.
TPM was a phenomenon in terms of people skipping work/school to see it opening day. AOTC is not going to have that level of hype or interest.
Despite that, it's going to do well Thursday and Friday. Darth23's guess is not bad. Taking into account ticket price increases, 95-$100 million for the Thursday-Sunday period is not out of the question.
I think it will depend on how many screens it opens up on. TPM opened up on less screens that current 'blockbusters', and while there have been several movies that have surpassed TPM's monster weekend, they did it with more screens. So depending on whether they open AOTC on more screens or not will determine the weekend tally.
If AOTC opens on TPM number type screens:
Thurs-Sun: 80-90 mil
Fri-Sun: 65-70 mil
If AOTC opens on more screens:
Thurs-Sun: 90-100 mil
Fri-Sun: 80 mil
TPM opened on a Wednesday and managed to make that the biggest single day ever (at the time). I think AOTC can manage at least one day close to the current single day record. I don't think it will have enough screens to take the single day mark, though - and I think that will be good for the movie in the long run.
Phantom Menace (5/99)
Opened - 2970
Highest - 3126
Opening Weekend - $64.81 million *(105.66 - 5 days)
Total Gross - 431.09
Pearl Harbor (5/01)
Opened - 3214
Highest - 3214
Opening Weekend - $50.08 million *($75.17 - 4 days)
Total Gross - $198.53 million
LOTR - FOTR (12/01)
Opened - 3359
Highest - 3381
Opening Weekend - $46.46 million *($74.37 - 5 days - Wed - Sun)
Total Gross - $304.66 million *still playing
The Mummy Returns (5/01)
Opened - 3401
Highest - 3553
Opening Weekend - $68.13 million
Total Gross - $202 million
Harry Potter (10/01)
Opened - 3672
Highest - 3672
Opening Weekend - $90.29 million
Total Gross - $316.82 million
Opened - 3587
Highest - 3715
Opening Weekend - $42.34 million
Total Gross - $267.65 million
Hard to guess at this point, remember opening gross is largely dependant on the advertising campaign.
remember opening gross is largely dependant on the advertising campaign.
Not necessarily. I remember TPM depending a lot less on television advertising compared to say Harry Potter or LOTR. A lot of their promotion came by way of licensing and that doesn't affect box office numbers.
I don't think they actually ran any commercials for TPM until a few weeks into the run. There were tons of Pepsi, Kmart and Kentucky Taco Hut ads. I read an article from Lucas film stating that ads were done for audience awareness, and that everyone in the world knew TPM was coming, so they didn't need to spend money on ads.
Plus there were news reports covering the trailers, the lines, and the hype.
I don't think Episode 2 needs to many ads either. You defiitely won't see those constant banner ads up on Yahoo movies and other movie sites for weeks like we saw for Pearl Harbor.
The other movies will be showing on Fox, talk shows are already asking Sameul L Jackson about Star Wars, even though he's promoting Changing Lanes, and the April 23 merchandise date will get a lot of ceverage for the movie. There will be a lot of Star Wars stuff on magazine covers again as well. And the hype shows and E! will continue to talk Star Wars.
[Plus all the people going to the theater to see Scorpion King and Spiderman will see the posters, and maybe a trailer as well.
I don't think there will be that many commercials for the movie at all.]
I don't think we'll be seeing much for AOTC tv ads either. Keep in mind that we are already seeing ads for movies that will be opening in May, and no SW ads in sight (yet).
It depends greatly on the number of theaters it opens on. If it's at least 3300 theaters, I think it can break $100 mil in 4 days.
I would be surprised if it doesn't hit $100 million in four days.
I'd bet around 60-80 million. I seriously doubt it will open higher than TPM or make more money than TPM no matter how good a movie it is.
Ticket prices are higher - and big movie open as big as ever.
I think big numbers for Scorpion King and then for Spiderman 2 weeks later will be a sign of even bigger numbers for Episdoe 2. A lot of people going out to the theaters will be more likely to go out again for the next big event movie.
I think AOTC will make as much as Harry Potter did.
It would be hard for AOTC to beat Harry Potter's opening. Before HP opened, the Single Day record was 28 million (TPM) but Harry AVERAGED 30 million for 3 days!
Part of that was because of the number of theaters, I don't think Episode 2 will be opening in nearly as many locations. I DO think AOTC will be able to hit 30 million at least once in 4 days - either opening day or Saturday.
I have a theory that AOTC in 4 days will be able to (at least) double the Scorpion King's opening weekend.
TPM didn't need many commercials because of all the free publicity the news stations gave them. The only time I ever saw any commercials was in the after noon when most kids are out of school and wathching afternoon TV. This time around, I don't think as many people are hyping AOTC like they did TPM, so I imagine we might see a few more commercials, but maybe not.
I think it'll make about 90 million from Thursday thru Sunday. And that's going on history, since ROTJ made less than ESB, and ESB made less than ANH. AOTC is destined to make less than TPM because it's a sequel, but it will still make a killing opening weekend.
Um, ROTJ made MORE then ESB.
Star Wars films (unadjusted domestic gross, including re-releases)
1977 - ANH - $461 million
1980 - ESB - $290 million
1983 - ROTJ -$309 million
1999 - TPM - $431 milion