How much wiIl AOTC gross in its opening weekend? (Thu - Sun)

I said 60-80 for opening weekend. That's when we fanboys will all go, then once people hear how great AOTC is (knock on wood ), they'll flood in soon enough!

 

Um, ROTJ made MORE then ESB.

Because it's better.

 

Well that's what I thought in 1983.


(Still do, too)

 

Scorpion King looks like it's opening with about 35 million. It made 12.6 million on Friday (in 3400 theaters).

Weekend estinate will be out tomorrow and the final numbers will be available Monday evening.

 

I'm guessing AOTC will make 67.3 million in it's first 4 days. Just thought I'd throw my name in the hat.

 

That's less that The Mummy Returns made in 3 days.

 

on the pesismist side I don't know how anyone can think it will do less than 70 million over the first four days. Pearl Harber, The Mummy Returns, Rush Hour II, all just about that much in THREE days! And this is Star Wars there will be fans who'll see it 2, 3, 4, 5, SIX times opening weekend! Sequals tend to open bigger than the orginal (Blade II, the Mummy Returns, Austin Powers II, Rush Hour II,....) so even if AotC sucks (ain't going to happen) it will at least get 70 Mill. If its good then maybe 115 million over first four days.

 

I'm starting to wonder if it's even worth going on opening weekend. I know, I know, heresy! But I don't particularly want to fight my way through monster line-ups.

 

itll kill harrpy potter damn i hate that crap!
Aotc will rock everything itl beat ep 1!!

 

"I'm starting to wonder if it's even worth going on opening weekend. I know, I know, heresy! But I don't particularly want to fight my way through monster line-ups. "

Then go Sunday evening. Even on opening weekends there are lots of seats available then.

 

I'm guessing AOTC will make 70 mil plus or minus a couple mil in the 3-day weekend which would be slightly better than your standard overhyped movie from last year.
and it'll probably make about 20 mil opening day driven by fanboys.

I think the second weekend will be interesting, strong word of mouth plus memorial day weekend could equal a weekend gross similar to or greater than that of opening weekend.

 

*has not seen a single AOTC commercial on TV*

 

I've seen several - actually I've heard several - they usually come on while I'm on the comoputer and the tv ison in the other room.

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Not too late to post your guesses.....

 

I saw two last night on FOX. One for toys, one for movie. Nice to see sinceI only saw one commercial for TPM period.

 

I predict it will earn $ 100 million dollars domestically it's first weekend,
and by June 1st, it will have made $ 250 million dollars, again I'm talking domestically.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see Star Wars break records it's first weekend out, because the fans will drive business that first weekend.

The post-TPM effect will be, most likely, that a good number of people will hold off seeing it until they hear that it's better then TPM, or will go see it, but not be in any real rush to see it.

Word of mouth is going to have a huge impact on business for this movie...and I think if the movie is as good as the commercials and trailers are looking (and as good as the people who have seen it/read script say it will be), then I think AotC will have strong repeat business and continue to draw money all summer.

Though, ESB was the lowest drawing of the OT, and it was movie #2...

-Matt "The Stampede"

 

Yeah, but TPm had strong repeat business (for a big movie) and suposedly everyone hated it.

I don't think the fans will account for much business - at least not the hard core fans. Remember the Fan Days back in 1999? It hardly had any effect on the movies weekend grosses. Star Wars appeals to a lof ot people who aren't into fanatically following the saga, but will go see the movies (repeatedly).

Even though I think AOTC will make more than TPM, I'm not sure if it can hold the number 1 spot for the third weekend - it's after the holiday and The Sum of All Fears opens with Ben Afleck and Morgan Freeman.

 

anyone heard anything on why it's opening on a Thursday?

seems a bit odd to me.

 

It's probly opening on a Thurs so that the major rush will be Thr, Fri, Sat so other people who don't want to wait in lines can go see it on Sun.

 

My understanding is that many other countries have movies released on Thursday so they moved it from the traditional Wednesday period as part of the more uniform release strategy.

I'm not sure how valid that is. Another reason could be that TPM had a big drop on its opening Thursday - and that they want to avoid negative pubilicty oging into the weeked. TPM opened with a record (at the time) $28 milion, then fell to $12 million before making another $64 million for the weekend. (18, 24 and 21.9).

But there were several stories on the net before the weekend started speculating that TPM was just a 1 day phenomenon, and that all the fans had seen the movie on opening day.

Anyway, with opening day being a Thursday, AOTC will have less of a drop on day 2 before showing increasing again on Saturday and Sunday (most family films tend to perform bette than the average movie on Sundays).

 

Spiderman debuts Friday with an 'Amazing' $41 million.

That's for ONE DAY.


It should take in well over 100 million for the 3 day weekend. Harry Potter's $90 million 3 day record will be toast.


The question is, what does that mean for AOTC's opening? Spiderman grapped 3600 screens, slightly LESS than Harry's 3670 total. AOTC probbly won't be apearing on quite as many - I'd guesss around 3200 total. But a big opening demostrates the size of the movie going audience, I think and Episode 2's debut will be much higher than my original guess (84/110).

 

I still can't believe that Spidey made $41 million in ONE DAY!!

5D2M1

 

I don't believe AOTC will surpass Spidey's opening. That is major.

However, folks, let's remember...Spidey has approximately 12 days left to reign. Then, the Clones take over. AOTC may not make over $40 million on opening day, but it will beat out Spidey for the year.

 

From TheForce.net:

How will AOTC fair on its opening day? Anything short of $40m will now be seen as a failure by box-office pundits & critics."

What kind of an idiotic statement is THAT?

Less that $40 million on opening day will be seen a sa FAILURE? First off, We dont' even know how many theaters AOTC will open in yet, second, total gross is MUCH more inportant than opening day gross.

Also - Spiderman opend on a THRUSDAY, not a Friday - it probably won't make as much of a difference, but that IS a factor.

Only one movie has EVER made 40 million in a single day (it happened yesterday - it might be happening again today). Only TOW movies ahve Ever made more than 30 million in a single day.

I think calling a less than $40 on opening day a 'failure' is really silly. If the movie makes less than 75 million in 4 day, THAT could be seen as a failure. If the movie makes less that 300 million, THAT could be seen as a failure as well.


Phantom Menace ended up as the number 3 movie all time (until ET passed it this year), and while it did get the opening day record in 1999, it didn't get the opening weekend record. Lost World, the movie with that record, only finished with $229 million total.

Staying power and the final gross are much more important that opening day records.

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Having said all that I DO think that AOTC's openign will be on par with the new higher mark set by Spuderman.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see Star Wars break records it's first weekend out, because the fans will drive business that first weekend.


Wow ,look at Spiker Man's first day grossing
"41 million".

AOTC will have a very hard time to compete with.

I don't sure AOTC will break the opening record now.

But I hope it will gross more in the long run.