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How much wiIl AOTC gross in its opening weekend? (Thu - Sun)

Discussion in 'Revenge of the Sith (Non-Spoilers)' started by Darth23, Apr 14, 2002.

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How much wiIl AOTC gross in its opening weekend? (Thu - Sun)

Poll closed May 15, 2002.
  1. $40 million or less

    3 vote(s)
    2.0%
  2. $40 - 60 million

    3 vote(s)
    2.0%
  3. $60 - 80 million

    34 vote(s)
    22.7%
  4. $80 - 100 million

    58 vote(s)
    38.7%
  5. Over $100 million

    52 vote(s)
    34.7%
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  1. Dark Lady Mara

    Dark Lady Mara Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Jun 19, 1999
    I would guess opening weekend gross for AotC will be close to that for TPM or possibly a little lower because of the decreased hype surrounding AotC as compared to TPM.
     
  2. skywalkersaber

    skywalkersaber Jedi Youngling

    Registered:
    Apr 19, 2002
    i agree. staying power in weeks 3-4-5-6 etc is whats going to tale the tape. i dont think aotc will beat spidermans opening, but it will beat it in the long run.
     
  3. GhostofJinn

    GhostofJinn Jedi Youngling star 1

    Registered:
    Mar 24, 2002
    I hate to sound negative. I saw spidey today and loved it. I will get my aotc tickets this week. However i don't really understand the whole movie gross thing. Why now are we all so concerned with how much a movie makes in a day? I dont know about it. I hate that movie going has become a buisness for the fans as well as the studios. I just hope the movie does well for George. It seems like he really pours himself totally into his films. Much like it appears sam did for spidey. I like it when good guys win.
     
  4. Radiohead

    Radiohead Jedi Padawan star 4

    Registered:
    Mar 31, 2002
    Why now are we all so concerned with how much a movie makes in a day? I dont know about it.

    This is a sad reality of the movie industry. From a business standpoint, a big opening weekend and a good intake over the longhaul somehow validates the quality of a film. Obviously, this isn't true from an objectively critical standpoint, because lots of bad movies make tons of money.

    Anyway, my prediction for AOTC's gross in it's first day will be... $35 million. Mainly because it opens in far fewer theaters than Spider-Man. For the whole weekend, I'll say it grosses $88 million.
     
  5. BLKNIGHT18

    BLKNIGHT18 Jedi Padawan star 4

    Registered:
    Oct 12, 2001
    88 mil is too low for the four day weekend. I'd say thursday it does 28 mil, friday and saturday about 32, and sunday about 20. That's about 112 mil. It will have the record for biggest weekend because of the 4th day, but Spiderman's 3 day weekend total, whatever it ends up at, won't be beat this summer or winter.
     
  6. SWfan2002

    SWfan2002 Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Jan 28, 2002
    Spider-Man's strategy is obviously to make as much money as quickly as possible, within the two weeks before AOTC. So far it has definately succeeded.

    AOTC on the other hand looks looks like its being positioned to make a lot of money over the long haul, with good word of mouth instead of "in your face" hype, etc.

    So I think that AOTC will open at about 30 million per day until Sunday, then maybe 20 million. So that'd give it a Fri-Sun gross of about 80 million. However, I think it will display very good legs because of its probable positive word of mouth and good reviews. It may even have the legs of a "sleeper" movie, but obviously, AOTC will not in fact be a "sleeper".
     
  7. EwanM

    EwanM Jedi Youngling star 1

    Registered:
    Mar 8, 2002
    Quote form the article in [link=http://www.boxofficeguru.com/050402.htm]Boxofficeguru.com[/link]

    It says Spier-Man played in

    3,615 playdates and an estimated "7,500" total prints.


    Is there any information about how many screens (prints) AOTC will be played?
     
  8. jedi-jeff

    jedi-jeff Jedi Master star 3

    Registered:
    Nov 2, 2000
    One of the seemingly endless trailers that preceeded Spiderman when I saw the film was the trailer for AOTC. Putting an AOTC trailer with Spiderman was very smart maketing since both films appeal to similar audiences. As a result, AOTC will likely get a bit of a boost from those that saw this trailer when they went to Spiderman. However the first weekend total for AOTC is unlikely to surpass Spiderman's weeekend gross since AOTC is a sequel.
     
  9. smauldookie

    smauldookie Jedi Knight star 5

    Registered:
    Mar 5, 2002
    $41 million in one day.
    no way AOTC WILL MAKE THAT MUCH.

    reason being it will open in less theater and prints. also it's opening on a thursday.
    AOTC will make over $100mill in its first weekend though.

    spidey $110-120 first weekend.
    aotc $100-110 first weekend.

    i do think over the long haul.
    AOTC will make more then any other movie this summer.
     
  10. Darth23

    Darth23 Jedi Padawan star 4

    Registered:
    May 14, 1999
    That sounds reasonable. :)

    But then, TPM established a new Opening Day record of 28.5 million on a Wednesday, and it played in less theaters than movies that came before it.

     
  11. muymaul

    muymaul Jedi Youngling star 2

    Registered:
    Jun 24, 1999
    It is funny. My wife and I went to see Spider-Man yesterday, just on a whim (I actually liked it, but I didn't walk away thinking this was one of the best movies I had ever seen). So when I read about the box office take, I told my wife who just sat there listening to me and then went back to work once I finish. She could care less!

    The point, I really don't care how much AOTC makes on its opening day, opening weekend, or in total. If I walk out of the theater knowing that this movie is one of my all-time favorites, I wouldn't care if it made the least of any of the Star Wars movies!

    I know that at some level we would all like to see AOTC do well. Realistically it won't beat Spider-Man's opening day and most likely its opening weekend. First off, AOTC opens on a Thursday. Only those of us which are desperately waiting to see it will see it on that day. Second, as others have pointed out, it won't be on as many screens. My only hope is that this new chapter of the Star Wars saga gives to me the enjoyment I have always felt with this series.
     
  12. DeltaJedi

    DeltaJedi Jedi Youngling star 1

    Registered:
    Apr 24, 2002
    I agree with what is being said here, for the most part.

    I think that Star Wars will open strongly due to fans driving initial business, but I'm hesitant to say it will have as strong as opening weekend as Spider Man. Certainly, the film will not come even CLOSE to breaking the one-day record for a movie opening, as it's unlikely to do world-beater business opening on a Thursday (theaters don't do late shows on Thursdays like they do on Fridays).

    I'm going to go out on a limb and predict 90 million for the opening weekend, with a Thurs-Sun gross of 120 million.

    In the long run, it's going to be word of mouth that will drive Episode II. The faithful will be out on Thursday. Movie fans will drive opening weekend sales, but then those people (along with good reviews in the media) will hopefully drive the people waiting-and-seeing to the box office. Spider Man and Star Wars both enjoy rabid fan followings (with Star Wars fandom crushing Spider Man fandom in sheer numbers, I'd have to imagine), which will drive grosses through repeated business.

    And, just to bring everyone back to Earth on the grosses issue: ESB, considered by the vast majority of fans to be the best of the OT, was also the lowest grossing of the bunch. Quality dosen't always transfer to box office quantity, in the history of Star Wars.

    Food for thought.

    (Now, having said that...I want every Star Wars fan out there getting the word out and bringing people to the theaters. I'm so bloody sick of every group of fans crawling out of the woodwork when their 'movie' is released. First it was those idiot LotR fans, now it's this Spider Man lunacy...this has to end now! There is one box office king! [runs off screaming like a lunatic] )
     
  13. Jedi knight Pozzi

    Jedi knight Pozzi Jedi Grand Master star 6

    Registered:
    Apr 2, 2000
    Does anyone know how many ticket for AOTC have been sold? If so, I was wondering if we could use the figure to find out a possible box office opening?

    EDIT: [link=http://us.imdb.com/Ratings?0145487]And Just To really Annoy. :p [/link]
     
  14. HawkNC

    HawkNC Former RSA: Oceania star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Oct 23, 2001
    Just FYI to anyone who's interested, AotC opens WORLDWIDE on May 16, which includes most major countries. Spiderman only opened in the US this weekend, the rest of the world has to wait a few weeks, more than a month in some places, before seeing it. Worldwide numbers will show just how much we love SW. :D

    And I'm bringing nearly twenty people with me to opening day, I expect everyone to do the same. ;)
     
  15. EwanM

    EwanM Jedi Youngling star 1

    Registered:
    Mar 8, 2002
    Spider-Man released on the same release date as U.S. in here (Taiwan).
    So Siper-man might opened earlier than U.S. (B/c Earlier Time Zone).

    I saw it yesterday ,I think it's pretty good (not great).

    I give it 8 out 10.

    The theater here was really crowded (B/c the TV commercial palyed almost in each commercial break).

    And I'm more looking forward to Star Wars right now.

    Star Wars fans at starwars.alittleboy.com/in plan to held a premiere party and plan to buy all seats of the first screening for Fans Only.

    And I plan to the charity premiere on 5/16 in Chung-Li city. (There will be 2 charity premiere. One in Chung-Li ,one in Taipei).

    I'm not sure AOTC will break 41.4 million first day.
    But I do sure AOTC will do better in the long run.
    I have faith.

    Edit:Spelling Correction ,again
     
  16. Darth_Darren

    Darth_Darren Jedi Youngling

    Registered:
    Apr 16, 2002
    I do think Spiderman will be pretty much wiped out once AOTC gets here. If it really made 41mil its first day, then that means that everyone in America who wanted to see it saw it this weekend. (But remember, that $41 mil figure is just an estimate. They won't really know how much it made until tuesday or so.)

    AOTC will play on the same number of screens as Spiderman. The real big theater cahins all carry four prints of a movie so everyone can get in to see it sometime the day they show up. So don't worry about that.

    As far as "will AOTC make $41 mil on opening day?" Hell no. Spiderman may have won this round, but the war is far from over.
     
  17. Nismo1223

    Nismo1223 Jedi Youngling star 2

    Registered:
    Mar 31, 2002
    A lot of money.
     
  18. Queenie Amidala

    Queenie Amidala Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    May 7, 2000
    AOTC will play on the same number of screens as Spiderman.

    Where does this information come from? I was under the impression that AOTC was playing on far less screens than SM. I've heard the comparison of 3600 to 3000 often.

    Does anyone have a link for us to verify this once and for all?
     
  19. DeltaJedi

    DeltaJedi Jedi Youngling star 1

    Registered:
    Apr 24, 2002
    Spider-Man opened on more screens then Star Wars did, but that is undoubtedly due to a major push by Sony to get the film in front of as many paying customers as possible during it's first two weeks of release. The thinking being, that if every theater has multiple prints of Spider-Man, it's less likely someone will get turned away for a sell-out and be forced to come back another time, when there might be another film (coughstarwarscough) that the person would rather pay to see.

    HOWEVER, I believe that Star Wars has a longer 'commitment' by theaters to showing X number of prints. Whereas theaters are probably free to drop prints of Spider-Man after the first week or two, I think that Lucas and FOX required theaters to keep prints of Episode II for a couple of weeks in order for them to get copies at all.

    I work as a projectionist in the summer, and I can tell you just from experience that what makes or breaks a movie's long term grosses is how long it keeps multiple prints in a theater, and how long it stays playing in the mid-to-large sized auditoriums at the multiplexes.
     
  20. DarthHomer

    DarthHomer Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Apr 29, 2000
    What's the betting that the bashers will call AOTC a "flop" if it doesn't beat Spidey's opening day? :)
     
  21. jedi-jeff

    jedi-jeff Jedi Master star 3

    Registered:
    Nov 2, 2000
    Premliminary estimates show that Spiderman made $114 million from Friday throgh Sunday.

    AOTC might make about this amount over it's fisrt FOUR days, but not in three days. As a result, I will not be surprised if movie analysts proclaim AOTC to be a disappointment at the box office.
     
  22. Queenie Amidala

    Queenie Amidala Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    May 7, 2000
    It would not surprise me either.

    Of course, it would just show their stupidy and lessen their credibility as a decent movie critic.

    Not making $114 in three days is not a disappointment.
     
  23. Radiohead

    Radiohead Jedi Padawan star 4

    Registered:
    Mar 31, 2002
    Yep, plus AOTC opens in far fewer theatres than Spidey does.
     
  24. Darth Mace

    Darth Mace Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Oct 29, 1999
    I think you guys have already written the headlines for the papers on Monday, May 20.

    "AOTC Disappoints All, Grossing a Paltry $35 Million on Opening Day, Only $110 Million On Opening Weekend!"

    ;)
     
  25. Queenie Amidala

    Queenie Amidala Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    May 7, 2000
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