How much wiIl AOTC gross in its opening weekend? (Thu - Sun)

Discussion in 'Revenge of the Sith (Non-Spoilers)' started by Darth23, Apr 14, 2002.

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How much wiIl AOTC gross in its opening weekend? (Thu - Sun)

Poll closed May 15, 2002.
$40 million or less 3 vote(s) 2.0%
$40 - 60 million 3 vote(s) 2.0%
$60 - 80 million 34 vote(s) 22.7%
$80 - 100 million 58 vote(s) 38.7%
Over $100 million 52 vote(s) 34.7%
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  1. DarthTomas Jedi Youngling

    Member Since:
    Mar 31, 2002
    star 1
    Have some faith people. AOTC will rake in an easy $150 million between midnight Wednesday and Sunday.

    AOTC will also mop the floor with Titanic.
  2. Jeff 42 Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Sep 14, 1998
    star 5
    With a smaller number of screens, it's probably all but impossible for AotC to match Spider-Man's opening weekend. But I think this shows that it's foolish to expect AotC will make less than $100 million in its first four days.
  3. KNIMBLEKNIGHT Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Mar 8, 2002
    star 1
    I'm pretty certain that AOTC will be in far fewer theatres and fewer overall screens that Spider-Man. SM had some 7500 prints, and I think HP had over 8000. I just read an article where McCallum suggested but didn't confirm that there will be about 5000 prints made for AOTC. Not sure if theatres can have more screens than prints, but regardless, I think it's safe to say that Lucasfilm cares more about long-term box office figures than opening weekend.

    DeltaJedi, you're right on about Sony designing their strategy to get the big early numbers before AOTC is released. Lucasfilm doesn't need to do this. Lucasfilm puts much greater demands on theatre owners. They only want their film shown on the best screens and they demand much longer screen commitments. I remember for TPM, if a theatre didn't agree to keep the movie in in biggest auditoriums for 4 weeks or so, then they didn't get the movie. I'm sure Lucasfilm doesn't have as much power now and/or will be more reasonable, but the bottom line is that AOTC will be shown on less screens but will remain on the best screens longer and their overall strategy is not to get the huge opening but rather to have a longer and overall more profitable run.
  4. Darth Euro Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 25, 1999
    star 4
    DarthThomas wrote:

    "Have some faith people. AOTC will rake in an easy $150 million between midnight Wednesday and Sunday.

    AOTC will also mop the floor with Titanic."


    Prepare to eat your words... Only a junior Sith would make such a foolish prediction (and two of them to boot). Didn't TPM teach you anything?
  5. opinion Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 2001
    star 4
    ...ill have to [renig]however you spell it...on my vote...i didnt know it was feasible to make 100 mil plus in a opening weekend...so now i think AOTC will make 100 plus...god from wednesday to sunday itll make an obscene amount of money...
  6. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    [bloxkquote]
    Originally posted by Darth Homer:

    What's the betting that the bashers will call AOTC a "flop" if it doesn't beat Spidey's opening day? [/blockquote]



    TheForce.net already said this. :p

    Actually what they SAID what that critics and box office pundits will see AOTC as a flop if it doesn't beat Spiderman's opening day gross.

    Which is an IDIOTIC thing to say, since no critics or pundits would ever actualy suggest such a thing.

    Not beating an 'Amazing' and historic debt is NOT a sign of failure.
    ---------------

    Word is that AOTC will appear in 3500 theaters with 5,000 prints. (Compared to 3600 plus theaters and 7500-8000 prints for HP and Spiderman, as has been mentioned in this thread).

    Even if Spiderman drops 50% next weekend it will still clear 57 million bucks. :p Another 50% drop during Star Wars weekend and will give it $28.5 million.

    A very resonable 30% weekly drop after that will put it in the 325 million dollar range. Of course, LESS that a 50% drop if the first few weeks will put it on the fast track to $400 million territory. AOTC will probably be the big winner during Memorial Day weekend, (Spiderman week 4) but Spidey will surely benefit as well.


  7. Harlowe Thrombey Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Feb 19, 1999
    star 2
    I haven't read this whole thread, so I apologize if someone's already quoted or mentioned this, but here's what the guy from CNN said about the film (he saw it on saturday night.)

    "COOPER: Yes. And I've got to tell you, in two weeks when "Star Wars: Episode II" opens up, it's going to be "Spider-Man," schmider-man."

    Good old Coop, he always tells it like it is. According to the CNN article, AOTC is only opening on 300 less screens. Well, actually that's quite a bit, but still, AOTC will definitely win in the long run. At least according to good old Coop. I dare someone to find a time when Coop was wrong.

  8. BLKNIGHT18 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Oct 12, 2001
    star 4
    well put darth23, Spiderman will end up between 325 and 40, I'm thinking 350 mil

    AOTC will open thurs-sun doing about 110-115 mil. With the next weekend being memorial weekend, it will probably drop off very modestly, doing 80mil fri-monday. Factoring in mon-thurs, it will leave memorial weekend w/ around 235 mil. Then we'll see how the legs are. The next week after a 50% drop would be 40mil, and then it will be up to how good, or how big it ends up being, and how much teenage girls like Hayden. It should get very close to 300 in first 3 weekends, then we'll see where it ends up.
  9. KNIMBLEKNIGHT Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Mar 8, 2002
    star 1
    Harlowe - great quote. However, you're getting screens and theatres mixed up. Even if a movie is playing in the same movie complex on 4 different screens, this only counts as one theatre. The number of screens is the more telling stat. AOTC will only have 5000 prints/screens versus the 7500 that Spidey had. That's a big difference, and Lucasfilm does this to ensure that his movie will only be played on the best screens for a longer period of time.

    Darth23 - my guess is Spidey will wind up somewhere between $300 and $325 million. I think AOTC will pretty much grind Spidey's box office to a halt. No way Spidey gets over $20 million on AOTC's opening weekend. Just don't see that happening.

    BLKNIGHT18 - $300 million after the first 3 weekends? Probably a bit optimistic, but not out of the question. Remember, Lucasfilm has a distribution strategy aimed at a longer box office run rather than getting most of the revenues in the first few weeks. TPM didn't hit $300 million until after its 4th weekend. I can see AOTC hitting the mark a little quicker if it continues to get the good reviews - but I would guess it will get there during its 4th weekend.
  10. Padawan92 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 22, 2001
    star 4
    Not enought to beat Spider-man.
  11. Disco_Dooku Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    May 1, 2002
    star 2
    AOTC will not even come close to Spiderman and here is why:
    AOTC will be on significantly fewer screens that Spiderman is/was. TPM was in roughly 2900 theaters, SM was in 3615. Now I expect that AOTC will be in the same number as TPM or less because GL is pushing for it to be shown in digital theaters, and there are not that many, so the regular theaters are not going to get that many prints. Take my theater for example. From what they are listing for presells, they are going to have 2/3 LESS screenings than TPM did. We had 3 midnight showings, one one is listed so far. We had TPM on 3 screens, right now it is preselling on only one. Now if this is the way AOTC is going to be released, then there is no way it will even reach HP.

    Spiderman won't hit $350 million. It will be hard pressed to hit $300. It will see significant declines over then next 3 weeks picking up a little again for Memorial Day, but will die after that.

    AOTC should hit $500 million. Here is why:
    - Tickets are more now and if the same number of people see AOTC as did TPM it will gross more due to inflation.
    - Now if it is as good as everyone who has seen it says it is, then it will get even more business and creep over the $500 mark. If it is fantastic it may even hit $600.
    - If it opens on more screens that what is being talked about right now.

    Although in the "movie" world, if AOTC doesn't beat HP or SM, it will be looked on as one of the busts of the summer. However, they will fail to mention the fact it will be on less screens and didn't open on the traditional "Friday" release day. That won't matter as it will still be treated as a failure.

    It will also not matter what is does in 4 days, it will be considered a bust and all the critics who are just waiting to bash AOTC will get their chance. Right now AOTC is in a no-win situation, but that is ok with me. AOTC will be 10 times better that SM and HP!! That is all that matters!
  12. space-n-vader Jedi Padawan

    Member Since:
    Feb 27, 2002
    It won't beat Spidey's opening weekend. However it will still squash that bug :) (in total box-office.)
    I'm estimating AOTC will easily topple TPM and HP and at the very least make 1.2billion worldwide.
    TPM with all its hype still made the least of all the SW films and didn't even crack the top 20(adjusted for inflation list). On
    that list, I think Gone with the wind is #1, ANH is #2, and then Titanic. So adjusted for inflation, titanic never really did beat ANH. No film since 1977 has. So if you thought TPM was a big event, could you imagine what the OT was like back in the days? And since AOTC promises to be on par with the OT, and be the most action-packed of them all, I'm predicting it'll be big. It should have a very good word-of-mouth..which means success.
    Bad word-of-mouth is what hurt TPM.
    So there's no way AOTC can make less than TPM. It's just that it's being underestimated because of the comparatively low hype.
  13. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    I think that because of the increase in theaters, and ticket prices alone that AOTC will end up in the same range as TPM.

    Right not I'll thinking that AOTC will open with around the same 30+ million a day (for 4 days) that Harry Potter had. If Spidey wasnt' playing I'd say maybe 35 million a day.

    Even though those kinds of numbers still seem completely unreal to me. :p
  14. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    Friday Box Office:

    1] Spider-Man__________$19.605 million (-50%) [$171.2 million total]
    2] Unfaithful____________$4.553 million ( New) [$4.6]
    3] The New Guy_________$3.219 million ( New) [$3.2]
    4] The Scorpion King_____$1.177 million (-60%) [$77.2]
    5] Changing Lanes_______$0.996 million (-41%) [$54.5]


    Spiderman looks headed for an understandable 50% drop from last weeks record - 60+ million for its SECOND weekend, and a new record for Fastest to 200 million.

    The big question for Spidey now is whether or not 400 million in within reach - I think 300 million is pretty much a lock. We can probably assume at least another 50% drop next weekend, then a bump for the Memorial Day weekend.

    The latest theater/screen estimate for AOTC is 3300 theaters and 5000 screens (compared to 3600/8000 for Spidey.)

    According to an article on Yahoo Movies, Episode 2 online tickets are running ahead of Harry Potter - so it looks like AOTC is at LEAST on track for the second or third biggest opening ever.




  15. Darth_Xero Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Nov 13, 2001
    star 1
    AtoC is not going to beat Spidey's opening weekend. My guess is that it will make over 100 million from Thursday to Sunday but not over 114 from Friday to Sunday. It's going to be on less screens and plus alot of people were turned ofF to Star Wars after TPM. Overall there's a great chance it'll make more than Spidey in the long run but in these cynical days people don't seem to get the magic, adventure and romance that is Star Wars. They prefer edgier material like the Matrix and LOTR. I for one, like the rest of you, have not forgotten why I love Star Wars so much and will see it mutiples time, insuring that I do my part to raise it's box office. :)

    Spiderman looks like it's on course to make TPM money with or without inflation. It's going to be the fastest to pass the 200 million mark and it's on more screens that TPM was in 1999. 400 million is my guess.

    I'm optimistic about both of these movies and I hope they both do well. :)
  16. dehrian Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 18, 1999
    star 6
    (Repost from another thread.)

    It's almost physically impossible for AOTC to beat Spidey's record. This is why:

    Most theaters practice splitting a print up over multiple screens, so that they can fill more rooms. This degrades the film faster however, and GL has stipulated that any theater showing AOTC cannot do this. (Some will doubtlessly do it anyway, but many will not.)

    What this means is that theaters will be limited to the number of prints provided, which should rest at about 3000. Spidey also provided 3000+ prints. However, theaters split that up over to over 7000 screens via the splitting option that GL is directing not be used. Spidey therefore had twice as many screens, and therefore opportunities, to bring in patrons as AOTC will have.

    Add to that the fact that AOTC has a longer run time and will therefore show less times a day, it becomes a mathematical improbablity that AOTC will come anywhere near Spidey's record.

    This will not hurt AOTC's longterm gross, however. As we saw with TPM, which, because of the same factors, had a lower opening gross than The Lost World, but ultimately went on to far surpass that film's final gross. What it means is that the sophmore weekend will have strong numbers, due to people who couldn't get in opening weekend, and that the film should play strongly during the week, which most films do not.

    In the end, AOTC will outgross Spidey, regardless of opening weekend numbers.
  17. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    I don't think the running time will be that much of a factor - especially early on.

    Does anyone know the running time for Spidey? It seemed to be a bit longer that 2 hours, which is what Ep 2 is, really. If AOTC was 3 hours long then it would be more of an issue, but I don't think Spidey will have an extra showing per day.


    I've read figures that stated that there were 8,000 prints for Spiderman and there will be 5,000 for AOTC.
  18. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    The Weekend stimates are in.


    According to Entertainment Data.com, Spidey dropped by a TINY 37% this weeked to $72 million. This is more impressive that its $114 million opening. Last year the big movies routinely dropped by 50-60% after a big first week and there was speculation that with such a huge opening that Spidey would do the same thing. Forget 300 million, we're now talking 400 million plus, I think.
  19. DarthHomer Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Apr 29, 2000
    star 5
    I know it's sacrilege, but is anyone getting worried that Spidey may actually beat AOTC for the summer crown? It's unheard of for a film to open that big and then have such a small decline the 2nd week.
    Someone please restore my faith in the Force :)
  20. darth_redrum Jedi Padawan

    Member Since:
    May 12, 2002
    don't forget to factor in the "hardcore fan" effect...spiderman doesn't have people who will see it 30-50 times in the theater like star wars, we as hard core fans will carry this movie to the box office crown this summer & if we don't? who cares, we all know what the best series of movies ever is, so does it matter?
  21. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    At this point AOTC will have to pretty much match the performance of TPM in order to come
    out on top.

    Such a small drop in week 3 for Spidey puts it on the 400 million dollar track, and it indicates that its legs will be in the TPM/Shrek range. Spiderman will possibly drop around 50% when AOTC comes out - possible - but then it should have a good Memorial Day holiday in weekend number 4.

    I think the battel is closer now than I though it would be a few weeks ago. A record opening coupled with a drop under 40% is..... AMAZING.

  22. KNIMBLEKNIGHT Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Mar 8, 2002
    star 1
    Darth23 - I agreee in that $72 million this weekend is more impressive than SM's opening weekend. I didn't think it would be able to clear $55 million. My new prediction is a 65% - 70% drop next weekend. I just don't see how it could possibly gross more than $25 million during AOTC's opening weekend, but this movie keeps surprising everyone.
  23. Darth_Invidious Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Jun 21, 1999
    star 5
    I myself am not too optimistic about AOTC's first weekend numbers in relation to, say, Spider-Man's. Spidey's flick is THAT cool and he's a much older and popular icon than Star Wars in some circles. You'll call me sacrilegious but the movie's struck a chord with the audience, particularly after 9/11 and the desire to see a movie about a hero more people can relate to than Jedi in a galaxy far far away. Also, Kristen's far more hotter than Natalie. :D

    We gotta face facts, fellow SW fans. Notwithstanding AOTC's opening in less screens than Spidey, I think the bad taste in anything SW "Phantom" left around the world hasn't diminished much. That and some of the not-so-favorable reviews by idiot critics will make people -- and by "people" I mean the non-hardcore fans that make up a big chunk of the audience -- more cautious about rushing to the multiplexes to see "Clones".

    Perhaps many people will wait on the word-of-mouth before actually going to see the movie if the kick-ass trailers have not already convinced them to go to the first available midnight showing. I know I can't or shouldn't, coz of this little thing called "work" the next morning ( :( *sniff-sniff, sob-sob*).

    I live in Puerto Rico, and let me tell you, it was almost an exercise in futility to go watch Spidey on its opening night if you hadn't bought advance tickets. I went to see it the following day and even though it was being shown in FIVE screens on the nearest multiplex, the lines to go in where hideously huge all throughout that opening weekend. I honestly don't know if it'll be the same for AOTC come next weekend, but I'll be sure to let you know. I'll scan some of the local multiplexes around here and if the turnout is the same or better, I think it'll be safe to say that the Force AND the Green (backs, that is) really is with AOTC.
  24. Blue_Viper Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Jul 12, 2001
    star 1
    I think the main reason Spider-man didn't drop as much this weekend is because there wasn't another "Summer movie" out in the theaters to compete with it. The closest was "the scorpion king", and it had been out 2 weeks prior to spider-man, so it made most of it's money before spider-man came out.
  25. Sampson Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Apr 21, 2002
    I'm sorry, Invidious, not only is your 'far more hotter than Natalie' line exceedingly poor grammar, it's just totally and utterly incorrect.
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