How much wiIl AOTC gross in its opening weekend? (Thu - Sun)

Discussion in 'Revenge of the Sith (Non-Spoilers)' started by Darth23, Apr 14, 2002.

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How much wiIl AOTC gross in its opening weekend? (Thu - Sun)

Poll closed May 15, 2002.
$40 million or less 3 vote(s) 2.0%
$40 - 60 million 3 vote(s) 2.0%
$60 - 80 million 34 vote(s) 22.7%
$80 - 100 million 58 vote(s) 38.7%
Over $100 million 52 vote(s) 34.7%
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  1. Darth_Invidious Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Jun 21, 1999
    star 5
    Sorry about my grammar Sampson. Slip-ups like that happen everytime I'm not too careful. Now, if you mean I'm "utterly, totally incorrect" about Kirsten being hotter than Natalie...well, all I have to say is that if I were given to choose between the two, I'd marry Kristen in a second. They'd have to pry me off her lips if by some miracle I'd have the chance to kiss her. Mmm...

    Heheheh
  2. augusto Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Aug 6, 2001
    star 4
    Kristen is very beautiful, but not to you I find Natalie a lot more attractive.

    Hey, the only problem with Natalie is that she looks very young and that I feel kinda guilty admitting she's so gorgeous, specially when I remember her role in the Professional.
  3. Darth_Invidious Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Jun 21, 1999
    star 5
    I'm not saying Natalie is not beautiful, because she most certainly is. I don't know, I'm just in love with Mary Jane right now. Heheh. Maybe Natalie will sway me away come next weekend. And boy, I know what you mean augusto. I also remember The Professional. Who'd've imagined that lanky girl would've grown up so fine. It sucks though to be ten or so years her senior and kinda be considered a perv for finding her beautiful eh? ;)
  4. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    the main reason Spiderman didn't drop is becuae it has LEGS. Scorpion King opened a few weeks ago and did the traditional 50% drop.

    People are coming out of the woodwork to see Spiderman making the total box office much bigger than it would be if the film werent' playing.

    As fars as AOTC goes, it's opening will be BIG, very big. I probably doesn't have the number of screens or theaters to beat Spiderman's opening, but it will almost definitely be in the range of Harry Potter's record debut from November.

    I think this Star Wars movie will be as re-watchable as TPM - so I'd expect a big Memorial Day weekend and about a 40-something percent drop after the holidays, then drops similiar to Spiderman.

    Of course you can't really tell until it happens.

  5. Darth Kimball Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 12, 2000
    star 2
    Opening weekend considerations:

    - Ticket sales according to Fandango.com already exceed Philosopher's Stone.
    - Lost fans from TPM are made up for from kids drawn into Star Wars by TPM, many of whom are now older and will pay more.
    - Decent, not unanimous but decent, advance word.
    - A sequel that heavily relies on knowledge of the existing films means that while the existing fan base is huge, opening weekend (or the entire run at all) will not draw in people who have never seen a Star Wars movie (yes they exist), unlike Spider-Man, which had wide brand awareness and accessibility to people who had never read a single comic.
    - Ticket prices are up about 30% from 1999, the TPM year.

    My predictions:

    Thursday
    - Opening day madness. This is the day everyone's buying tickets for.
    - Low: $30M
    - High: $35M
    (I sound like a weatherman.)

    Friday
    - Not a work day.
    - Not opening day either. Expect a slightly smaller figure than Thursday, since people have seen it already by now.
    - Low: $27M
    - High: $32M

    Saturday
    - Will be the biggest day of the Fri-Sun period, especially with matinees.
    - Depending on word-of-mouth and desire for repeat viewings, may or may not match Thursday.
    - Low: $30M
    - High: $35M

    Sunday
    - Usually the weakest day of the Fri-Sun period.
    - Monday is a holiday in Canada... should only be a $1-3M boost in domestic figures though, and that's being generous.
    - Low: $23M
    - High: $28M

    Total
    (Weekend does not count Thursday)
    - Low: $80M
    - High: $95M
  6. Darth Kimball Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 12, 2000
    star 2
    Final gross considerations:

    ESB, ROTJ and TPM have all made about the same amount of money, in terms of tickets sold. They stand next to one another on the inflation-adjusted all-time domestic chart.

    Expect AOTC to hit a similar figure, which means anywhere from $430-460M.

    AOTC's primary competitor during its run is in fact Spider-Man. There are no other event pictures of the like at all this summer. The next big blockbuster film with a pre-sold brand name is Men in Black II at the beginning of July. The likes of Goldmember are counterprogramming at best, and should have as little effect as The Spy Who Shagged Me's huge opening in '99 had on TPM.

    As for Spider-Man, after AOTC is released, it's pretty much all repeat business. As this weekend's 37% drop has indicated, there will be much of it. Expect Spider-Man to end up with a total gross from $360M-400M. Its third weekend against AOTC should still be a strong $30M or so.

    Reviews look generally positive so far. If even TPM, scathed by so many fans, still managed week-to-week drops of around 20-30%, AOTC should fare at least that well.

    The Football (not "soccer", ya Yanks) World Cup will have an effect on international grosses for all movies this season, but should not hit North America all too hard.
  7. Marek the Jedi Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Sep 25, 1999
    star 4
    Hello Darth23 :)

    I see I missed couple of messages here...
    Just arrived in San Francisco :) ready for THURSDAY :)

    I think AOTC will make a little more for weekend than Harry P. and for sure it will have better average per theatre than Spiderman :)

    Marek

    P.S. man that was a long way to get here from Slovakia :)
  8. DarthHomer Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Apr 29, 2000
    star 5
    I still think AOTC will make at least $110 million in its first four days.
  9. WildSyco Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Apr 19, 2002
    star 3
    Beware Spider Man. Webs are no match for the power of the force!
    GOGOG SW!
  10. xaviore Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    May 7, 2002
    I agree with the last 4 posts.
  11. Darth_Xero Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Nov 13, 2001
    star 1
    "Beware Spider Man. Webs are no match for the power of the force!
    GOGOG SW!"


    True, once Attack of the Clones comes out Spider-man's box-office will deminish. But you know what it doesn't even matter anymore, even it AotC makes more money in the long run, Spiderman is already a winner and you can't take that away from it. It has broken records and is on it's way to the 350-400 million mark, very impressive for a comic book movie! Gogogo Spidey! *thwip* :D
  12. DarthHutt Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 2, 2000
    star 5
    Short term Box Office records are like the the MLB home run record.
    There's a whole lot of "OOO's and AHHH's", but in the end, when they are broken that often, they lose meaning.
  13. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    "Hello Darth23 :)

    I see I missed couple of messages here...
    Just arrived in San Francisco :) ready for THURSDAY :)

    I think AOTC will make a little more for weekend than Harry P. and for sure it will have better average per theatre than Spiderman :)

    Marek

    P.S. man that was a long way to get here from Slovakia :) "


    Hey Marek! good to see ya!

    Check out my Opening Weekend BO Contest. First Prize is an Ep 2 theatrical poster.
  14. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    Nice Analysis Darth Kimball!

    (btw, the poll covers the Thursday thru Sunday opening period)


  15. Darth Kimball Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 12, 2000
    star 2
    Thank you, I liked it too.
  16. DarthBooger Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    May 11, 2002
    Spider-Man might get some unexpected ticket sales just due to they can't get in LINE for EP2 so that also has to be considered
    I think SM shot it all in the first two weeks as I personally have no interest in that movie at all.
    Not sure why but I do not.

    But folks that get tied of waiting in line or a show sells out, they probably go to SM

  17. Marek the Jedi Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Sep 25, 1999
    star 4
    Hey Darth23, I will check that page tomorrow :) I was once there for sure :)

    Is there FINAL data for weekend ?
    Did SM really 72 mil ? hmm..
  18. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    Nah, Spidey dropped WAY doen when the final numbers came out.

    It only made 71.417 million in it's second weekend (non holiday too).

    :eek:

    Yahoo Weekend Box Office List
  19. The Flying Dutchman Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jun 4, 2000
    star 4
    The reson SM is doing so well is I think due to Ep2.
    A lot off ppl would see SM anyway but you don't have to have a brain to figure out that when Ep2 comes out SM will be pushed out of all major screens.

    That fact that it's exploding is because of this I think. And it's hype up due to this.

    If all this is true SM should be smashed down after Ep2 hit's the screen in just 2 days....
  20. Darth_Invidious Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Jun 21, 1999
    star 5
    But...what if it Spider-Man ISN'T pushed out of some major screens? At least not immediately. Say we have a 10 screen multiplex. Assign 3-4 screens to Clones, 2-3 screens to Spidey and the remainder screens go to the newest movies that will be hopelessly gobbled up by the Big Boys. Spider-Man is still very strong, and while it may fall to Clones come next Thursday, it still might keep hanging there all the way to Memorial Day. I have faith in the Force, but I have the bad feeling feeling it might get tangled in webbing for a little while.
  21. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    A 37% drop is considered good even for a film that doesn't open huge. Last year almost every major Summer movie dropped 50% or 60% after a big openign weekend. The common (incorrect) wisdom at the time was just that the movies were dropping so much because they had opene so big, and a good percentage of their audiences had seen them in the first weekend.

    Spiderman's performance shows that thsi is wrong. It came it and completely blew away the old opening record, yet still dropped less than 40% the next weekend - forget 40%. Spidey had shown that no matter how big a movie opens, if can still retain its audience if it is appealing enough.

    It will drop more when EP 2 opens, obviously, but it's alreay shown that it had suffucient drawing power to perform very well longterm (30-something percent drops, increases for the holiday weekend).

    Memorial Day weekend will be CRAZY, with two legitimate Box Office Titans going at it.

    The fact that a 1 week Clones will face a 3 week old Spderman almost gaurantees that EP 2 will stay higher, and Ep 2's 3300 or so theaters are laready locked in. If one movie holds a lot better than the other after the Memorial Day holiday, that film will probably hold on to more screens longer when the rest fo the Big Event movies come around.

  22. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    Poll closes in 18 hours....

    Last chance to put in your prediction.

  23. KeithFranklin Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Jul 22, 1998
    star 2
    Just read this morning

    AOTC on 3161 theaters 6100 screens
    TPM was on 2970 theaters and 5000 screens

    TPM did $105,661,237 first weekend (including Wednesday and Thursday $40,000,000). Drop Thursday number of $12,000,000 for a opening night + opening weekend total of $93,000,000.

    Take into account 20% increase in ticket prices $111,600,000.

    More screens. TPM averaged $15557 per screen. if adjusted for 20% ticket price increase.

    Take into account more screens and AOTC over weekend (not opening night) pulls in $102,676,416.

    TPM made $28,000,000 on 5000 screens opening day in 1999 take average per screen + 20% ticket price increase * 6600 equates to $44,352,000 opening night.

    With better reviews, less hype (TPM had all kinds of reports that showing were sold out a week in advance. News reports reported the advance sales, Lucasfilm made announcements about advance sales and when they start. All this lead to believe that TPM was impossible to see the first weekend), more better advertising AOTC could very well surpass what TPM did and adjusted for extra screens and increase in ticket prices hit $150,000,000 first 4 days.
  24. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    Now THAT'S what I call a prediction!!!

    :D :D :D :D :D
  25. xaviore Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    May 7, 2002
    (KeithFranklin)

    Yes I agree. 111 million is what I think it can do. No problem. AOTC will fall short of Spidey on slightly due to lack of screens.

    Word of mouth is key for the Saturday show. TELL ALL YOUR FRIENDS THAT THIS FILM ROCKS!!!

    And the rest will take care of itself.
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