How much wiIl AOTC gross in its opening weekend? (Thu - Sun)

Discussion in 'Revenge of the Sith (Non-Spoilers)' started by Darth23, Apr 14, 2002.

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How much wiIl AOTC gross in its opening weekend? (Thu - Sun)

Poll closed May 15, 2002.
$40 million or less 3 vote(s) 2.0%
$40 - 60 million 3 vote(s) 2.0%
$60 - 80 million 34 vote(s) 22.7%
$80 - 100 million 58 vote(s) 38.7%
Over $100 million 52 vote(s) 34.7%
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  1. theUnknownjedi Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Sep 26, 2000
    star 4
    Dammit, I bet a friend $5 that AOTC would beat Spider-man's 3 day record. I actually thought I would win too.
  2. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    You should have cheked here first. :p

    Go double or nothing on AOTC beating Spiderman at the end of the year! (Though I think it's a 50-50 proposition myself)



  3. DarthHomer Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Apr 29, 2000
    star 5
    "In the long run, it will make lots of money ($350 million)due to LFL/FOX's "highjacking" of theaters, but I would like to see if the SW movies had legs and weren't given an unfair advantage due to contractual agreements. I read stuff like that and it makes me want to wait until AOTC is on DVD before I see it again."

    I don't buy that, Punisher. If TPM only made $430 million because of an unfair contractual agreement, then why was its per screen average always so high? Even weeks into its run it was making more per screen than other films that had a wider release, such as Austin Powers.
    Face it, all Star Wars films have great repeat business, and AOTC should be no different.
  4. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    The Force.net is calling AOTC's 24 million of Friday disappointing. Apparently they believe that becuase it dropped 6 million on day 2 it's not doing to well.

    What they fail to realize is that TPM dropped 16 million on day 2 - from 28 million to 12. It's Friday numbers were the lowest of the weekend.

    many peopel skipped work or school to check out Episode 2 on Thursday, a lot less did so on Friday.

    Look For AOTC's Saturday numbers to be around the same as Opening day, and Sunday's totals to be ahead of Friday.

    We're at 54 million in 3 days with the two stronget days to go.

  5. Queenie Amidala Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    May 7, 2000
    star 5
    Go double or nothing on AOTC beating Spiderman at the end of the year!

    Word is getting out that people loved AOTC! We all knew after that news of Spidey's $114 mil that AOTC wouldn't come close in 3 days. But, we know it has legs. Patience...for the Jedi it is time to eat as well.

    EDIT - And look what TF.n/Box Office Mojo is reporting. $85 mil in 3 days, $110 in 4...making it only the second fastest to hit $100 mil, behind Spidey. This movie and it's earnings is not a disappointment. Not in the slightest.
  6. Darth_Invidious Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Jun 21, 1999
    star 5
    Well, I'm repeat business myself, just coming back from the theater a few minutes ago. For some reason, I enjoyed the movie more during this sitting than on the first. :)

    Perhaps it will be the repeat business that will ultimately push AOTC ahead of the Spider when all is said and done.
  7. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    Every time there's a big even picture the studios get put special conditions on showing the movie. That has very little to do with how much money a movie makes.

    Look at AOTC the requirements that it only show in theaters with digital sound limitted the film to 500 less theaters and 1000 less screens than Spiderman. How does this help its Box office?

    Being in a theater longer doesn't force peopel to go see it. Especially during the summer and with the huge number of multiplexes that exist now.

    Phantom Menace's low drop off rate continued through its entire run - not just the time when it has to be in the theaters.
  8. DarthHomer Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Apr 29, 2000
    star 5
    If you look on Cinemascore, AOTC got an even higher rating from audiences than TPM. We don't have to worry about it burning out quickly like most blockbusters.
  9. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    But the cumulative grade for both movies an an A-

    It got an A instead of an A- from one group of males (the biggest anti-Jar Jar group, I'd wager).

    But then Cinemascore is a different thread.... ;)

    According to Box Office News

    AOTC:
    $86.15 million (3 day)
    $116.3 million (4 day)

    ----------------------

    For reference:

    TPM:
    $64 million (3 day)
    $105 million (5 day)

    AOTC's 4 day total is similar to Spidey's 3 day total.

    Spiderman only dropped 35% to $46 million. :eek:

    I guess you could say that the box office expands to accomodate the popular movies out there.

    Memorial Day weekend's numbers soudl be very interesting. I could see an increase for Spidey and a slight decrease for AOTC, which could give Ep. 2 a higher second week.

    Of course, the weekend after that will show what kind of staying power ATOC will have.

    -----------

    The Final numbers will be out on Monday evening. Everyone who choose the highest category in the poll should give themselves a cookie.

    :D :D :D :D

  10. JediTidus Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 5, 2002
    star 1
    We all knew it was going to pretty unrealistic for AOTC to beat Spider-Man's 3 day record. It did open on approx. 1500 fewer screens. We will see next weekend if AOTC has legs. Most of my non-Star Wars fan friends still haven't seen it because they are afraid of the wait and hype. They will probably see it this upcoming weekend.
  11. The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth

    Manager
    Member Since:
    Jan 27, 2000
    star 10
    Spiderman pulling in 46 million in it's THIRD weekend, DURING the opening weekend of a SW film is mind blowingly amazing! Especially when people thought Spidey would only do 50 million or so in it's FIRST weekend!

    AOTC performed as expected I think- above TPM, around Potter but below Spidey.
  12. BLKNIGHT18 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Oct 12, 2001
    star 4
    Hey guys, check out how close my prediction last week was:
    http://boards.theforce.net/message.asp?topic=6666320&start=6828321



    I think your prediction is too high as well Keith. Let's say AOTC opens on 6000 screens. Spidey did $15000/scrn. Let's say AOTC is just below that, w/ the less hype, at $14,000/scrn. That's $84 million friday-sunday, w/ the reduced # of screens.

    Now lets take Thursday into account. If you broke spidey down by day, it was probably $5750/scrn on fri, $6000 on sat, and $3250/scrn on sunday. AOTC's thursday will probably be $5250/scrn. That makes $31.5 million on Thursday.

    Total Thursday to sunday- 115.5 million.
    If AOTC = spiderman's per screen average, we are looking at 125 million.
  13. Bowen Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Sep 6, 1999
    star 4
    I think given the slightly higher ratings that AOTC got when compared to TPM, and an opening weekend gross that is definitely very very good, AOTC could hold just as well as TPM...

    If it does, $500 million total is in reach. I think it is a possibility as long as people continue coming back.

    Haha, whoever said that TPM made its money because LFL forced theaters to have it is foolish. In all cases, LFL let theaters drop TPM if it was not doing well enough to warrant being there anymore, if you read the facts.

    Also, TPM held up extremely well every weekend and remained in theaters forever because of excellent word of mouth. Yes, it's true that not all fans liked it, and not all fans like ESB, and not all fans like AOTC, they are never all going to be satisfied. But most people loved TPM, and most people seem to love AOTC.
  14. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    Would you belive 80 million for AOTC?

    110 for all 4 days.

    For some reason the weekend estimate was $6 million higher than it the final numbers.
  15. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    Mystery solved. Fox estimated Sundays gross based on Phantom Menace:


    from link=a href=http://movies.yahoo.com/news/va/20020520/102195014900.html]Yahoo/Variety[/link]:
    "In the case of "Attack of the Clones," Fox underestimated how much ticket sales would drop off from Saturday to Sunday, projecting a decline of 11 percent based on its experience with "Star Wars" Episode I -- The Phantom Menace," back in May 1999. Instead, "Clones" actually dropped 21 percent, a difference magnified by the sheer size of the movie's true gross, a Fox spokeswoman said."


    So they didn't use the 'standard Saturday to Sunday drop', they used TPM's first weekend as a guide.


    TPM's Saturday to Sunday drops:

    Opening Wekeend: -10.18%
    Memorial Day weekend: - 4.1%
    Week 3 - 23%
    Week 4 - 20.63%
    Week 5 -7.57%
    Week 6 -21.71%
    July 4th -26.96%
    Week 8 -26.96% (not a typo)
    Week 9 -24.67%
    Week 10 -22.95%
    Week 11 -31.74%
    Week 12 -14.35%


    So a 20% drop on Sunday isn't too surpring, looking at TPMs overall history.
    I think If Spidey weren't around Sunday's number would have been closer to Fox's estimate.
  16. Jedi knight Pozzi Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Apr 2, 2000
    star 6
    And how are we feeling today?
  17. Ret Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Dec 17, 1999
    star 6
    Sad, howabout you?
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