Discussion in 'Lucasfilm Ltd. In-Depth Discussion' started by Palpateen, May 28, 2007.
It's too early to guestimate.
What do long-delayed 4th movies usually gross?
What did Rocky Balboa take in? Now granted that was a sixth, but the time gap between installments is similar.
the fan base has been accumulating since 1981, so I think it's gonna be big, very big
1 TRILLION DOLLARS
The first 3 movies are some of the most popular movies ever made...which is
a great foundation of marketing that no amount of money can buy. How many people
have seen the first 3, either in the theatres, on DVD, or on cable or broadcast TV?
It's a huge audience. And there hasn't been one since 1989. Since George Bush SENIOR
was President. If it's a good movie, and I believe it will be, I think it will do business on a scale with Harry Potter, LOTR, Spiderman and Pirates.
Tough question. It's gonna have a MASSIVE opening weekend, the question is whether it'll have legs or not, and that's down to Messrs. Lucas, Spielberg, Ford and Williams.
If they schedule it on a holiday weekend, like Memorial Day or the 4th of July,
it will be a monster.
Domestic, 200 million should be a lock, right now I'd say $250-325 million but that could vary quite a bit depending on the quality of the movie and the marketing campaign. Really hard to tell.
Worldwide is even harder to predict.
Ya know what? I wouldn't be a bit surprised if it was the highest grossing film of next Summer. A ton of people have been waiting for this.
As far as I know it's to be released Memorial Day weekend. The Thursday before. 4 day's it may take "Spiderman 3."
I think $300 million (domestic) is well within reach. The hype for this will be pretty huge.
Well, Memorial Day makes it more of a 5-day weekend
It has absolutely no shot at the Opening weekend record, not with a Thursday opening day and the more evenly spread numbers of the Memorial day weekend. See Episode III, the huge opening day reduced demand on the weekend and took away the chance of beating the weekend record.
Though the four and five day numbers could be quite huge, if they do it right.
I see it dong Ep II numbers at the most.
I'm telling you this movie will be huge. Mark my words.
In 1989 Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade made about 475 million dollars world-wide.
That was 18 years ago. It was a huge, huge hit back then.
Check out the link below for the specifics, including how much it cost to
make the movie back in 1988/89.
The # 1 movie of the year world-wide in 1989 was (drum roll)
Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade.
(Tim Burton's Batman was # 1 domestically but Indy beat it world-wide.)
Here's the domestic grosses from each film adjusted for inflation from [link=http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm]Box Office Mojo[/link]
Adjusted for Ticket Price Inflation
Raiders of the Lost Ark
1981 = $242,374,454
2007 = $579,973,400
Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom
1984 = $179,870,271
2007 = $352,245,900
Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade
1989 = $197,171,806
2007 = $325,160,500
In that case I'll go with Ep III numbers.
I'm guessing $200 + . And that's only because Ford isn't the young hot thing that he used to be, not anymore. But I think Spielberg can do magic. We'll see.
I'd say ROTS type numbers. Who knows, maybe after it has wrapped and the hype really starts building up, it could put up TPM numbers.
Personally, I think it will make numbers we've never seen before.
Very hard to do, as the next Narnia movie starts not even a week before. What happens when big blockbusters start that close to each other can be seen with Spiderman/Shrek/Pirates 3 this May, which all made much less than anticipated.
SM3 had a massive opening weekend, but suffered huge drops the following weekends. It even had a weekend between it and Shrek 3. The main reason could be contributed to Shrek, but it could also be bad WOM. It generally wasn't well received (with good reason).
I think it's gonna do very well. Don't underestimate the power of the whip and the fedora.