Senate [In-Depth Discussion] United States presidential election: 2012

Discussion in 'Archive: The Senate Floor' started by kingthlayer, Mar 4, 2011.

  1. KnightWriter Administrator Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Nov 6, 2001
    star 8
    I suggest that everyone simply ignore this thread and post everything in the JCC thread. If no one posts here, it will soon drop from sight and be forgotten.
  2. Condition2SQ Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Sep 5, 2012
    star 4
    My personal choice would be to have this thread locked for a week or so and move the discussion to the other thread. Then, once things die down, we can return to this one and its Senate expectations.
    Last edited by Condition2SQ, Nov 4, 2012
  3. Lowbacca_1977 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 28, 2006
    star 6
    Further questions/discussion can take place in PM, but the anticipation was to let the in-depth discussion be separate from a lot of images/videos/links and quick responses. It's not been unheard of to have a thread for predictions and the like (and a large part of that thread currently is people's predictions maps) without shutting down the discussion thread, just within the Senate, and as this has been an election that's been very active in the news up to this point, that it could sustain both levels of discussion without a problem.
  4. KnightWriter Administrator Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Nov 6, 2001
    star 8
    Edit: .
    Last edited by KnightWriter, Nov 4, 2012
  5. Jedi Merkurian Episode VII Thread-Reaper

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    May 25, 2000
    star 6
    When you make a claim and someone questions that claim, that’s not being a troll; that’s just basic critical thinking and discussion. So let me say this again: If you assert a point, it is also up to you to back up your claims. If you can’t (or won’t) do that, then perhaps you should re-consider if the Senate is a good place for you to post.
    Last edited by Jedi Merkurian, Nov 5, 2012
  6. Darth-Horax Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 22, 2001
    star 6
    I was just on CNN.com and they have a tool where you can change the undecided states to whichever candidate of your choosing.
    Actually, either candidate coudl witn WITHOUT OH adn PA...there's enough votes to go around. HOWEVER, it would be difficult to win
    without one of the two, tha'ts for sure.
  7. Lowbacca_1977 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 28, 2006
    star 6
    And interesting side thing I'd been trying to get a feel for the other night was the third party factor. I'm a fan of third party support/consideration, but a lot of the polls don't factor them in and just ask Romney vs Obama. In particular, I'm looking at the states that are looking to be close, and how many third parties are present.
    Ohio - 5 parties
    Colorado - 14 parties
    Virginia - 3 parties (including Constitution party candidate Virgil Goode, who represented Virginia in Congress)
    Florida - 10 parties
    North Carolina - 1 parties - Libertarian
    New Hampshire - 2 parties - Libertarian and Constitution

    Not going through all the toss-ups at the moment, but just starting with there as a snapshot, I think it does open some interesting questions. In three of the states, there seems to be more representation on the right for third parties than on the left. In the other three, there seems to be balanced third party representation. If people are generally fatigued of the election, and not too happy with either candidate, I'd wonder how often they'll go to third parties. If they do, I can very feasibly see Virginia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire being won by Obama thanks to the votes that would go to the Libertarian and Constitution parties that would take more conservative votes than liberal ones. I'd almost go so far as to predict that New Hampshire will be an Obama win, but that the margin of the win will be less than the third party votes. This would be an increase from the third party vote in the presidential elections, but more in line with their gubernatorial election in 2010, where just over 2% voted for the libertarian candidate.

    Ohio, Colorado, and Florida fall more into the category that I think the effects would be roughly symmetric, but there is a bit of historical precedent in Florida. The butterfly ballot that they used resulted in strange numbers for Buchanan with the number of candidates they needed to include. I'd be interested in if there's a risk of this happening again or not. I'm presuming that they've fixed that particular problem, but not sure if it would be reasonable to presume that therefore, there won't be any confusion caused by that. In a close race, it could make a difference since 2008 was 1% third party voters. Colorado in 2008 was about 1.7% third party votes, and Ohio, even as a swing state, had about 2% third party votes (in 2004, it was only .5% in Ohio, although that was also write-in only).

    For most states, the increased ballot access of third parties won't be much of a factor, but it may be reaching the point that it will matter, particularly in the states that will be the closest elections where 1% or so could make the difference. A few states that have margins that are under 1% (like Missouri and North Carolina in 2008, and Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Mexico in 2004) may really see a third party factor and it'll depend on where you put that line if those third parties will actually swing the election one way or the other.
  8. Point Given Mod of Literature and Community

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    Dec 12, 2006
    star 5
  9. Fire_Ice_Death Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Feb 15, 2001
    star 7
    That is a bit disturbing, but hopefully lawyers won't have to come in. I think what's more worrisome is that this one damn state is going to decide this election. The New Republic has a pretty good article on why this state is so terrible for deciding the election.
  10. Kiki-Gonn Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Feb 26, 2001
    star 6
    I'm not one bit surprised. I've said I fully expect outright fraud by Republicans.
    What always does surprise me (even though I should know better) is how the MSM, progressive side included, relegate these things to footnotes thanks to the effectiveness of the dreaded conspiracy theory label.
    Valairy Scot likes this.
  11. Juliet316 Shelf of Shame "Loser"

    Game Winner
    Member Since:
    Apr 27, 2005
    star 7
    Well the Weather Channel kept saying this weekend one of it's investors was Bain Capital, and the Weather Channel, NBC, USA, SyFy, MSNBC are all owned by the same companies, so there you go.
    Last edited by Juliet316, Nov 5, 2012
  12. Mr44 VIP

    Member Since:
    May 21, 2002
    star 6
    I'd just like to say that like every four years, it's going to be interesting to watch the election coverage. I actually have election day off (through random scheduling, not by design), so I'll get to be a captive audience all day. Now, it's no surprise that I'll be voting for Romney, because I think he's much better to move forward with (campaign slogans and Katy Perry be damned) but I definitely have a morbid curiosity to see Obama get re-elected for a second term. Along with everyone else, I also recognize that the incumbent has the advantage, so I think any real tie will go to Obama.

    What I would like to see is that something play out that finally puts a stake through the heart of all the endless election polls, but that's wishful thinking.
  13. Blue_Jedi33 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 12, 2003
    star 5
    Last edited by Blue_Jedi33, Nov 6, 2012
  14. Ghost Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Oct 13, 2003
    star 6
    That post should be in the JCC thread.

    Can we PLEASE lock this thread for a couple days? @Lowbacca_1977 If there's "in depth" discussion about the election that we want to talk about, it can wait a couple days, or it wasn't worth it to bring up in a Senate thread anyways. Having the reactions and conversations divided into 2 threads would just suck.
    Last edited by Summer Dreamer, Nov 6, 2012
  15. Kimball_Kinnison Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Oct 28, 2001
    star 6
    Let the games begin. I tried to go vote this morning just after the polls opened, but the parking lot was already full, and I couldn't afford to be late for work. Since the school is half a block from my home, I'll walk down after I get home.

    I expect we're going to see complaints about irregularities from both sides as the day goes on. National Review is reporting that GOP poll watchers (appointed by the courts) have been thrown out of several Philadelphia polling places. I expect we'll get more such complaints from both campaigns in the next 12 hours or so.

    On the plus side, with most of the swing states being in either Eastern or Central time, we might actually know something before we go to bed tonight. If Romney takes Pennsylvania (or has a sizable lead there) by 10pm, that's basically the night. Otherwise, we might be waiting for results from Iowa and Colorado.

    I don't plan to be up much past 11pm Eastern, personally, one way or the other.
  16. KnightWriter Administrator Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Nov 6, 2001
    star 8
    My prediction remains 303-235 electoral votes in favor of Obama.
  17. KnightWriter Administrator Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Nov 6, 2001
    star 8
    Edit: .
    Last edited by KnightWriter, Nov 6, 2012
  18. Quixotic-Sith Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Jun 22, 2001
    star 6
    Did the National Review report on voting machines incorrectly registering Romney votes?
    MASTERPRENN likes this.
  19. Blue_Jedi33 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 12, 2003
    star 5
  20. Game3525 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 25, 2008
    star 4
    Chrysler gave their entire workforce the day off to vote.......Mitt really pissed of the wrong CEO with that Jeep Ad.:p
  21. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    Go greens!

    Ohio Green Party Candidate Sues to Block Voting Machine Use

    Here's hoping that the Ohio election results get very close scrutiny if the results don't match the exit polling.
  22. Lowbacca_1977 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 28, 2006
    star 6
    A reminder that there's this thread that's open to a broader range of discussion and is NOT operating under Senate rules.
    @Summer Dreamer, this will stay open for people that want to stick to discussion operating under general Senate rules, and the other thread is there for people that would rather be on the freer JCC general rules.
  23. Arawn_Fenn Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Jul 2, 2004
    star 7
    I hoped for the same thing in 2004, but no such luck.
  24. Kimball_Kinnison Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Oct 28, 2001
    star 6
    You mean like this?
  25. Rogue_Ten Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 18, 2002
    star 6
    already getting first-hand reports of voter suppression of latinos here in AZ

    here's colley's final map, logged at 7AM this morning: Obama 304, Romney 234. ohio, virginia, colorado, pennsylvania, nevada, new hampshire, wisconsin and one of nebraska's electoral votes to obama.

    apparently his choice of virginia to Obama was somewhat arbitrary because in terms of his mathematical method, virginia is a toss-up. looking forward to see if his accuracy track record holds...

    [IMG]
    Last edited by Rogue_Ten, Nov 6, 2012