Indiana Jones and the Box Office Tracker - Quarter of a Billion Dollars and Counting

It's a drop, but then again it's Monday and Tuesday Not many people go to see movies on weekdays. Especially when they've just had their fun the past weekend and are forced to get back to the grind

I do think this weekend's numbers will be super important. I really, really hope this can get somewhere into Lucas's money-loving heart and give us a sequel ASAP... is that bad?

-sj loves kevin spacey

 

Nah, I don't think the box-office results will be the primary consideration that determines whether or not there's going to be an Indy 5.

 

Another 12% drop from Wednesday to Thursday putting it at around $5.2 Million. These aren't good numbers. I think mixed-word of mouth has caught up with it. Take the whole top half off the estimate of where this picture could end up. Now it looks like: $290-330 Million Domestic.

Brace for a big drop this weekend and let's hope that it can steady itself and find some legs next week.

-matthew

 

It's still doing incredibly well for a series in which the last previous installment came 19 years ago.

 

Numbers fluxtuate almost randomly during the week. A lot of people are still not off school, and how many people attend a theater film on a tuesday night honestly can come down to whether its raining outside or not and theres nothing better to do. There'll be a big drop in the weekend gross but only because thats how movies work now. I would only chalk it up negative word-of-mouth if the weekend gross is less than $20 million, or maybe even $15 million. I don't think theres anything coming out this week so more than likely it'll do okay.

 

Actually Sex and the City opened today, but the target audience for that is very different. It's generally expected to open at #2, with Indy still the top movie this weekend.

And you're right, movies these days play out much, much faster, no matter how good or popular they are. The days when movies like E.T. or Raiders of the Lost Ark could play in theaters for up to a year are now a thing of the past.

 

Ever since the VCR.

 

But look at the bright side, these days you wait 4-6 months and you can get it on DVD or Blu-Ray.

 

Numbers do shift during the week. But there is a trend here compared to other movies that performed similarly to KOTCS in it's first week. This should perform like a family film, in terms of it's percentage increases/decreases over the weekend, but the overall drop from last weekend will be substantial. Right now it looks like it could be 55%+. IMO the second weekend is always the hardest to predict. I use to do this stuff for a website a couple years ago and the 2nd weekend numbers were the hardest.

-matthew

 

I forgot that aside from Sex and the City, there's another movie opening this weekend - The Strangers with Liv Tyler. I don't think it got a lot of publicity, so I'm not even sure if it might open in the Top 10.

 

According to Variety, Sex and the City may have grossed $20 million on Friday (the highest ever for a romantic comedy) so it may actually be a lot closer to Indy's 2nd-weekend figures...

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117986690.html?categoryid=13&cs=1
'Sex' to earn $20 million Friday
Projected gross best yet for a romantic comedy
By PAMELA MCCLINTOCK

Breaking all the rules about chick flicks, New Line and Warner Bros.' bigscreen adaptation "Sex and the City" is expected to gross at least $20 million in its opening day, a sum usually reserved for male-driven event films or family fare.

Friday's projected gross marks the best opening day number ever for a romantic comedy. Twentieth Century Fox's 2006 summer hit, "The Devil Wears Prada," nabbed $9.4 million on its opening Friday and $27.5 million for that weekend.

Heading into this weekend, Paramount holdover "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" had the advantage. Now, the race for the weekend crown could be much closer, with the possibility of a "Sex and the City" upset.

Women, particularly women over 25, aren't usually synonymous with big box-office openings. "Sex and the City," rated R and playing on 3,285 screens, is a lusty exception.

Women and their friends bought advance tickets for the film throughout this week, resulting in sold-out Friday shows in many top markets.

It's been four years since "Sex and the City" ended its run on HBO. Directed and written by Michael Patrick King -- an alum of the TV series -- the feature film reunites the original cast.

Warners took over distribution of "Sex and the City" after Time Warner dismantled New Line as a standalone studio and made it a label within the Warner Bros. fold.

 

Yuck.

Expect a close to 60% drop this weekend from Indy and Sex in the City unfortunately is gong to surpass Indy this weekend. The chick flick is going to be very front loaded so Saturday and Sunday are going to be much closer for Indy (it might take the lead back), but unfortunately if it can open with $20 million on Friday thats going to be enough to push it ahead of KOTCS for the weekend, because Indy is not going to be anywhere close to that number and SIC will have a sizable advantage heading into Saturday.

That's disturbing. I feel sorry for any man that gets dragged along to see that flick. I am tempted to see KOTCS this weekend just to offset some woman's SIC ticket purchase.

-matthew

 

Friday estimates for Skull are about $12 million, which means it'll probably see $25-30 million by the end of Sunday, which is exactly as I had expected.

 

Yeah, BOM is estimating $26 million for Sex and $12 million for Indy.

 

I think it's a fantastic box-office result. It's great to see so many people being drawn to movies that DON'T star mostly pretty young faces in their 20's or early 30's.

 

Indy will gross closer to $35-40 million. Which will be the 60% drop. Not a good second week. Luckily it made a lot of money up front.

-matthew

 

Lucky for whom?

 

Lucky for anybody that wants to see a sequel.

-matthew

 

I really don't think it's going to be the determining factor. It could break all kinds of box-office records, and it wouldn't change the fact that George Steven and Harrison still won't really need the money. Obviously if it had somehow failed to make back what it cost, then they certainly would scrap any plans for a fifth Indy movie, but I don't see them making Indy 5 only because of the B.O. results of this one.

Studios always want to cash in on anything that's popular and oftentimes don't care about greenlighting anything just to have a chance to cash in on whatever was popular the first time around. But the decision to make Indy 5 won't rest with Paramount, I'm sure.

 

I am saying: If the movie doesn't perform well, there won't be a sequel. It's not THE determining factor. Lucas and Speilberg don't need the money... but they need this to perform well to justify another addition to the franchise.

-matthew

 

True, but Spider-Man 3 had a huge dropoff after the first weekend, was completely panned by critics (which Indy IV notably hasn't been), and they're trying to do more in that series (oy). So I don't think it's necessarily an indication Indy V couldn't happen. I do think it's probably just entirely up to the big three at this point.

-sj loves kevin spacey

 

Even if this film has a big drop, it will still make ~$300 million domestically by the end of its run. The international box will almost certainly be more than $300 million. Even before DVD sales, this film will be very profitable.

 

I agree. And besides, Indy 4 is already going to be one of the biggest movies of the year, even if it isn't the biggest.

 

That's actually becoming the norm for big summer movies now. Indy is performing very similar to a number of recent blockbusters.

Numbers from Box Office Mojo

Thursday = $5,277,340
Friday = $12,250,000

Domestic Total = $183,131,000
Worldwide Total = $330,103,020

Box Office Mojo's Indiana Jones and the KotCS Page
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=indianajones4.htm

Looks like Sex and the City will be Number #1 which is sort of a surprise but with today's "new #1 every week box office" it really shouldn't be.

 

You're probably right about that. In hindsight, Iron Man really benefited on its 2nd weekend from going against a movie that drew generally weak reviews and not much interest from viewers (Speed Racer).

Here's an interesting Variety story:

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117986692.html?categoryid=13&cs=1
'Sex' on top with $26.9 million Friday
Warner Bros., New Line comedy makes history
By ANTHONY D'ALESSANDRO

Warner Bros. and New Line's feature adaptation of former HBO TV series "Sex and the City" grossed a whopping $26.9 million Friday from 3,285 theaters on the strength of women, by far the best opening day ever for a romantic comedy and the sort of gross usually reserved for male-driven tentpoles or family fare.

Friday's gross is the third highest ever for an R-rated pic, slotting behind previous Warner Bros. tentpoles such as 2003's "The Matrix Reloaded" ($42.5 million) and 2007's "300" ($28.1 million).

"Sex and the City" overpowered Memorial Day weekend holdover "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull." The Steven Spielberg- helmed pic took second with $12.2 million from 4,264 sites, down 60% from a week ago, and raising its 10-day domestic haul to $183.1 million.

Women, particularly women over 25, and big box office openings aren't usually synonymous. "Sex and the City," rated R and playing in 3,285, is a lusty exception. Throughout this week, women and their friends bought up advance tickets for the film, resulting in sold-out Friday shows in many top markets.

It's been four years since "Sex and the City" ended its run on HBO. Directed and written by Michael Patrick King--an alum of the TV series--feature film reunites the original cast.

Warners took over distribution of "Sex and the City" after Time Warner dismantled New Line as a standalone studio and made it a label within the Warner Bros. fold.

Film received an A CinemaScore from Friday auds.

Elsewhere on Friday, Universal and Rogue Pictures' "The Strangers," starring Liv Tyler and Scott Speedman, grossed an estimated $7.5 million from 2,467 venues to place third for the day after "Sex and the City" and "Crystal Skull." The horror-thriller about the mysterious invasion of a couple's vacation home was produced for an estimated $9 million.

Paramount and Marvel's "Iron Man" placed fourth with $3.7 million off 3,650, down 32%, with a running cume of $266.3 million.

In fifth, Disney and Walden Media's "The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian" drew $3.4 million at 3,801, down 48% from a week ago, with total B.O. of $106.1 million.