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Amph John Carter (of Mars)

Discussion in 'Archive: The Amphitheatre' started by StarDude, Oct 9, 2007.

  1. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    It's less about the Mars movies from 10 years ago and more to do with "Mars Needs Moms" bombing, supposedly. They apparently didn't realize that it was the "Moms" part of the title that turned people off ;).
     
  2. JohnWesleyDowney

    JohnWesleyDowney Jedi Master star 5

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    Jan 27, 2004
    The spate of unsuccessful films of about 10 years ago about Mars may indeed have been a factor, but it's "Mars Needs Moms" that was probably the final nail in the coffin. I read Disney lost way over a hundred million dollars on that film, and it caused them to completely shutter Robert Zemeckis' digital Imagemovers animation/effects company which they bankrolled. I think they may have just been a little superstitious, you know, "let's not tempt fate, enough with movies with Mars in the title, even if they're set on Mars!"
     
  3. Mastadge

    Mastadge Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

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    Jun 4, 1999
    I think it's very funny, actually, that after a movie bombs because it's awful, people get superstitious about the title.
     
  4. Jabbadabbado

    Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

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    Mar 19, 1999
    That is indeed pretty funny.
     
  5. Rogue1-and-a-half

    Rogue1-and-a-half Manager Emeritus who is writing his masterpiece star 8 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

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    Nov 2, 2000
    The reason I won't be going to see John Carter is the same reason I didn't go to see Mars Needs Moms: the trailer is awful. Why don't they ever figure out that they need to shake up the marketing? Because every trailer is the same nowadays and you'd think somebody would say, "Maybe it's the advertising that is failing."
     
  6. Nevermind

    Nevermind Jedi Knight star 6

    Registered:
    Oct 14, 2001
    [link=http://www.littlewhitelies.co.uk/blog/title-fight-the-unnecessary-tweaking-of-movie-names-18138]The Unnecessary Tweaking of Movie Names[/link]
     
  7. Jabbadabbado

    Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Mar 19, 1999
    The reviews are pretty much confirming the rumors. It may not be a terrible film, but it's unlikely to become the monster global hit Disney needs to recoup its production and marketing investment. The movie is likely to be badly outclassed and crushed between The Lorax and The Hunger Games.
     
  8. quiller

    quiller Jedi Master star 2

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    Jun 1, 2005
    This also sounds like another movie that pre-hate buzz will make it do much worse at the box office than it really deserves. I'm just hopping beyond hope that it is at least serviceable and breaks even so they green light the sequels.
     
  9. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

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    Jan 27, 2000
    Disney is going to have to really rely on overseas box office and marketing to break even. I don't think John Carter will do poorly, but it's simply not going to open big enough to do it domestically alone.

    While those two will definitely take the top spots from JC (The Lorax is basically unopposed for the family audience for awhile, and HG will open big regardless), I think the real problem for JC will be Wrath of the Titans, since they're both aimed at the same action sci-fi/fantasy sword/sandals creature battles interest.

    If Wrath does very well, it's going to severely hamper JC's legs. HG & TL are taking in different audience appeals.
     
  10. Nevermind

    Nevermind Jedi Knight star 6

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    Oct 14, 2001
    The reviews are running at 65 per cent at rotten tomatoes.
     
  11. Mastadge

    Mastadge Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

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    Jun 4, 1999
    [link=http://www.wired.com/underwire/2012/03/michael-chabon-geeks-guide-galaxy/]Interview[/link] with Michael Chabon, who worked on the movie's script.
     
  12. Jabbadabbado

    Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

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    Mar 19, 1999
    The2ndQuest, you have a point about the audience clash, but if JC fails to open as big as Lorax or bigger and drops heavily, 65% or so in week 2, then Wrath of the Titans will no longer matter, except potentially overseas (maybe that's what you meant?).

    Clash of the Titans
    did 2/3 of its business overseas, so the sequel is a legitimate threat to your scenario of Disney depending heavily on foreign box office for JC.

    I'm guessing Hunger Games isn't skewed as heavily female as Twilight (or at least girls/young women won't have to go see Hunger Games by themselves) and will really eat into JC's potential second week audience.
     
  13. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

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    Jan 27, 2000
    I believe Carter will need to rely on foreign box office to break even. Titans will probably break even domestically at the very least, assuming it's not worse than the original (which it doesn't seem to be at this juncture).

    HG will have more crossover appeal than Twilight, but it's still grabbing a different, younger audience ultimately. Someone looking for an action epic or genre flick aimed at more adult audiences (thoguh obviously still have some younger appeal) will go for JC & WOTT over HG.
     
  14. Jabbadabbado

    Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

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    Mar 19, 1999
    Clash of the Titans was indeed a much bigger hit than people seem to think. $125 million budget, 4x budget box office worldwide. That would be the equivalent of JC being a $1 billion worldwide hit.

    If JC makes the $500 million that Clash of the Titans made, it will be deemed a failure, though not a megadisaster.

    But I don't know about "adult audiences" going to see either of those movies. It looks to me that the audience for Wrath and JC is going to be young male, sort of an 11-25 demographic. I don't see Hunger Games bringing in a much younger audience, just a more gender-mixed one.

    Looking at the trailers of both JC and Wrath, the primary message seems to be: "girls, stay away from this. Anyone over the age of 25, stay away from this."
     
  15. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

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    Jan 27, 2000
    I don't know what the final product will be like, but HG seems aimed, in both look/style/marketing, to the tweens and teens who read the books. JC & WOTT have a more gritty, adult look to them for teens and college kids, possibly some older audiences given what source material those films are based on.
     
  16. Jabbadabbado

    Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Mar 19, 1999
    There's hardly anyone left alive who is an original fan of the source material. Almost no one knows ERB from his original work. That goes for Tarzan and everything else. He's known overwhelmingly derivatively/cinematically/adaptationally (not a word!). He's not like Tolkien, and the John Carter series is not like Middle Earth. I don't think you're going to find many older moviegoers seeking this out other than the usual committed lifelong sci fi junkies like me. We're a relatively small group.

    To be honest, Hunger Games looks a lot darker and more grown up from the trailers alone than JC, which looks like a PG-13 version of Conan the Barbarian, just as Wrath of the Titans looks like a PG-13 version of Immortals. I didn't want to see the R rated versions, and I most certainly don't want to see the PG-13 versions.

    But Hunger Games has a lot more authentic appeal to my lifelong sci fi junkie instincts than John Carter, just speaking as one of those older people not directly targeted by either movie.

     
  17. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

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    Jan 27, 2000
    Most of the people I've met that have been excited about John Carter are older (50's/60's) who are familiar with the source material- though, granted, they're mostly of the sci-fi fan demo.

    While I do expect HG will connect with a broader audience, i think just from the trailers, they're selling it as "teen drama", which isn't going to draw in the older crow by itself. It'll take word of mouth.
     
  18. Jabbadabbado

    Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

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    Mar 19, 1999
    You may be right. It's a fun month for movies. 4:44, and finally "Turn Me On, Dammit" is getting a U.S. release, though I'm not sure if it's coming to Chicago. It was still playing in Norway when I was there last year.
     
  19. Jabbadabbado

    Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

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    Mar 19, 1999
    What a thrill ride this must be for Disney.

    RT for John Carter is settling in below 50%. Let's just say that some of this may be that the critics read the movie news too and no doubt smell blood. They become less forgiving in their reviews than they might otherwise have been. In my view the same thing happened to Water World - a relatively entertaining movie, but the critics piled on anyway because it was predetermined to be the most expensive film flop ever.

    Box office guru is predicting that JC will make $27 million this weekend and be beat out by a $45 million Lorax weekend. He also says the production + marketing costs could = $400 million, putting the box office break even number at around $800 million.

    With a $27 million opening weekend and steep declines, however, we're looking at worldwide box office of maybe $100 million U.S., perhaps $150-$200 million foreign, suggesting as much as a $200-250 million loss on this movie. They might get $50-100 million back on video sales/rentals. JC will do well on rental at the very least because people will pay good money to see a train wreck - and this will be the most famous flop of 2012 most likely.

    At any rate, Disney c

     
  20. MandalorianDuchess

    MandalorianDuchess Jedi Youngling star 3

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    Feb 16, 2010
    According to box-office analysts, Disney could lose up to $165 million on "John Carter" :eek:

    http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/news/movies/la-fi-ct-disney-carter-20120310,0,2000583.story
     
  21. Jabbadabbado

    Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

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    Mar 19, 1999
    Lorax was just behind JC for Friday, but JC's numbers probably include the $500k midnight take. JC's box office is probably front loaded for Friday, so the prediction of $25-27 million opening weekend and second place to Lorax seems on track, which means that $165 million loss looks realistic.
     
  22. DarthBoba

    DarthBoba Manager Emeritus star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

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    Jun 29, 2000
    Which is a hiccup for Disney, albeit a painful one. They made 4.8 billion dollars last year, and their 2011 total assets was up there with Apple and Exxon-Mobile at 72 billion dollars.

    [link=http://a.media.global.go.com/investorrelations/annual_reports/WDC-10kwrap-2011.pdf]Linkie[/link]

    Rounded the 4.8 billion up to 5 billion; it's about 3% of their profits last year. Disney will always have the fallback of its parks, unlike other movie studios. In a way, they're practically an Apple prototype; Apple doesn't make a whole lot of money on their computers, but iTunes/IoS in general more than makes up for it.



     
  23. Jabbadabbado

    Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

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    Mar 19, 1999
    No question, Disney can survive a decade of bad movies, and it has before.
     
  24. Mastadge

    Mastadge Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

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    Jun 4, 1999
    It's not Disney that has to worry, it's the individuals attached to the project. What will a $250 million flop do for, say, Stanton's (live-action) career? Or for Taylor Kitsch's?
     
  25. quiller

    quiller Jedi Master star 2

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    Jun 1, 2005
    I just think it's funny how we can talk about how much a movie will Loose, and it hasn't even been released yet, I really feel the gloom and doom people should wait to "KILL" a movie until it at least has been released if not shown in the theaters for a week or two. It's just I keep hearing how this is going to be a flop and not one word actually about the movie, what's wrong, what's right with it.