Light at the end of the tunnel: The 2008 Election, its aftermath and the future

I think he'll get the sympathy vote, and he can show his strength and conviction by (cynical as this sounds) working it into a speech. Tell the people that she came within one day of seeing an America that most people of her generation never thought would come -- well, Obama could make one hell of an oratory out of that. I think that people will be watching him for signs of weakness, but I think he'll once again find a perfect balance of respect and mourning, and renewed conviction, and will come off as a man strong in spirit and not an opportunistic politician.

I see it helping him if he plays it right.

 

It's going to be tough emotionally, but it will allow Obama to hop on a plane the minute this thing's decided and take care of his family and the funeral.

 

So what you're saying is either:

-Those people were right back then, and you now realize you were wrong to disagree with them.

-or-

-Everybody gets to be ridiculous when their side loses, and we're safe to dismiss whatever you say as sour grapes until the election has blown over.

 

Obviously Obama will win, but I don't think it'll be quite the landslide the polls are predicting. His gap over McCain will be around 3-5% I would guess.

I must say, as an outsider I'll be happy to see the Democrats taking over for a while. My perception of the Republicans is that they need a period out of office in which to sort themselves out. I think they have to get rid of these extremist nutters and fundamentalists that have taken over the GOP and reconnect with pragmatic, small state, low tax and spend conservatism. They need to have a massive internal row between the christian right and moderate conservatives and its an arguement the moderates need to win.

As far as Obama goes, I'll make this prediction. He will disappoint. When people invest this much hope and euphoria in a politician it can only ever end in disappointment, I'm afraid.

 

It works both ways, JS.

Both my car and my husband's brand new diesel 4x4 truck were keyed. They both sport Obama stickers. They were particularly vicious with my husband's truck which now carries a long white scrape down the driver's side door

What type of 'chilling effect' does signify to you?

 

If a bully punches you in the nose, and you don't respond, he starts to think you are an easy mark. Punch him back, and he will eventually stop. Failure to retaliate is weakness.

In this case, it's a matter of returning fire after being fired upon.

 

Violence isn't the only answer to everything...

 

A Q for the Americans here: Have things been so acrimonious as they are now before?

Because the impression I get, as a Brit, is that the terms Republican and Democrat extend beyond politics, that they designate a certain lifestyle and perception, which is in direct conflict with the other.

That's fine and, as far as politics goes, par for the course. But, over the last 8 years, it seems that political discourse in the US has become more and more polarised, cruder and nastier and does appear to have been driven by the right as they deployed an attitude of 'if you don't support us, you're a terrorist lover'. Add in the development of the internet and a viewpoint that sees no link between responsibility and speech and you've the makings of a very volatile and toxic soup.

My own view is the polarisation and demonisation needs to stop, but what it'll take to force that change, as too many people have careers built on this rotten ediface, I don't know.

 

At least as far as the analogy goes, roughly a scenario that happened to me in high school involving me taking a few punches and not hitting back, and it led to a net win because popular opinion went in my favour after that.

This seems like the same logic involved with those that, say, don't see a problem with using torture to get information because Americans get tortured or the like. If you think you're better, act like you're better. Don't decry the other side for tactics you're then going to use yourself.


Jedi Ben, my vibe has been roughly in line with something I've heard Penn Gillette say. "The Republicans are the party of fear, the Democrats are the party of hate". I'd say, to an extent, parts of both parties are driving a strengthening division, but they're using different tactics. Not sure how to reverse that process.

 

I have been volunteering for the campaign here in Pittsburgh, and we were getting people calling us today because they had received calls from the "Obama campaign" saying that they were supposed to vote in a precinct that was across the city from where they lived. We corrected these, and are going to be up all night putting hangers on door knobs, but, yes, Republicans have their dirty tricks, too. It's not just that dirty ACORN organization.

 

I don't know if it's ever been this bad. It was bad last time, and the time before, but I don't remember details and I wasn't as involved.

I think what needs to be done and will never happen is that this ridiculous bipartisan system game needs to end. More options that are actually different from each other and that don't succeed on brand-name recognition and huge bank accounts alone would be very welcome.

 

Even the pundits embarrass McCain. Watching Sean Hannity argue with George Mitchell last night was like watching a elementary school student argue a college professor.

 

From what I've seen Obama and McCain have actually been pretty easy on one another? Certainly in comparisson to the 2000 and 2004 elections?

I've been interested in all this money Obama has collected? I would guess the amount is so large that it would have been impossible to vet every single donation? Whats the betting within his first year in office Obama is caught up in a funding scandal?

 

Number of times in the last 24 hours the following networks have brought up the Obama coal mining comment -

Fox News: 122, CNN: 18, MSNBC: 8.

 

Worse, in my opinion. Some of the character attacks that Sarah Palin has taken against Barack Obama are unlike what I've seen before. The two presidential candidates have been relatively quiet, Obama especially, while McCain has picked up the attack recently. Joe Biden has been extremely rough on John McCain, though. I don't remember the vice presidents being this heavy on the attack, at least not recently, with the exception possibly of Dick Cheney.

He opted out of public financing, so he is free to raise as much as possible. And with such a dedicated following and immense popularity, he's at a huge financial advantage.

 

Smuggler, I would recommend not reading the Drudge Report for your poll numbers.

Nate Silver's blog has a much more scientific breakdown of what polling means when, and why.

CNN.com has reported that overall, democrats have been out-early-voting republicans 57%-42% nationwide; however, that is just a statistic, not a result. We don't know how these individuals have voted, and we won't until tomorrow night.

Interestingly enough, I read somewhere that exit polling may show a McCain advantage, as more democrats may have early voted than republicans.

One more night.....

Peace,

V-03

 

This seems like the same logic involved with those that, say, don't see a problem with using torture to get information because Americans get tortured or the like. If you think you're better, act like you're better. Don't decry the other side for tactics you're then going to use yourself.

Absolutely. Of course naturally one can argue that Americans would get tortured anyway, because thier refrain from torture would usually be ignored.

But that's nethier here nor there. I'm sure Democrats as a whole have brought certain things down upon themselves -- Michael Moore, Al Franken and MoveOn.Org have not helped to large degrees (which is really a shame becuase if he was a bit more generous Moore could be a lot more effective than he is) -- but for Republicans to declare themselves the VICTIMS in this day and age...

Yeah. Whatever. I guess if my throat was hoarse from yelling "flip-flopper", I'd have an impulse to feel like a victim too.

 

A preferance for situations that would lead one to support redistributing wealth, mandating universal health care and resisting war? Your pet theory depends greatly upon what it is that leads to engaging an individual's fear stimulus. Liberals are just as fearful as conservatives - they just "fear" different things.

 

IMO, it has become more divisive over the last few years. I think it may have something to do with the Republican party courting the social conservative voters over the last twenty or so years. They have taken the party in a direction that it will need to shake off it before it can regroup/rebuild.

I think that BOTH parties like the polarisation, like feeding into that "us or them" mentality. It assures each party a certain number of votes so that they only have to sway those undecided voters.

I also think it's doing great harm to us as a people. I have been called names by members of my own family over my support of Obama

 

A preferance for situations that would lead one to support redistributing wealth, mandating universal health care and resisting war? Your pet theory depends greatly upon what it is that leads to engaging an individual's fear stimulus. Liberals are just as fearful as conservatives - they just "fear" different things.

I have to agree to an extent with McLaren actualy QS: I'm something of a proponent against some of these chemicals inducing precise behavor theories.

I know that's not what your column was about per se -- there was a lot of caveats. But in terms of what people fear correlating political positions... well, it reminds me of people saying evolution makes men predisposed to "spead thier seed" and not be manogomous: evolution didn't "make" one thing or the other, and base brain functions like dreams don't, I think, map out well into the real world much better.

 

Something has been bothering me lately.

Now, I'm not an economist, so I know this is not as simple as I'm about to put it. But do the Republican voters realize that the main reason Barack Obama is proposing to raise the taxes on the wealthiest Americans is because the Republican Party messed up the economy so bad over the last 8 years? The $500 billion deficit this year alone, not to mention trillions of dollars added to the national debt, is one of the reasons that Obama has proposed tax increases on such Americans - moving that tax bracket back to the Clinton years.

 

You mean this year alone when the Democrats control Congress?

 

Nah, that's a misrepresentation of what I'm saying. You are taking specific issues and casting them in terms of "fear" responses, while what I posted refers to issues of overall attitudes towards uncertainty and change. Change away from the status quo produces conservative thinking - this is not *strictly* conservative thinking according to the political definition of 2008 America, but rather refers to a reaction to avoid rapid change. See the difference?

 

Shall we go back and see how those who backed Kerry reacted when Bush won in 2004? Sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.


Just speaking for myself, I was actually very quiet about it. I didn't say much, and looking back at my posts of November 2nd and 3rd of 2004, I was disappointed, but in a pretty ordinary way.

Edit: For the record, 538.com's win percentages are, respectively, 98.1/1.9.

 

Yeah, I never really believed in Kerry. I wanted him to win, but doubted he could pull it off, so when he lost, I just shrugged and moved on.

Obama I believe in.

98.1%? Wow.