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  1. In Memory of LAJ_FETT: Please share your remembrances and condolences HERE

ST Measuring The Success Of The Last Jedi

Discussion in 'Sequel Trilogy' started by chris hayes, Apr 22, 2018.

  1. Xander Vos

    Xander Vos Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Aug 3, 2013
    Any movie with a Star Wars logo slapped on it - and is live action - will make a minimum of 600-700m I would think, unless there's a string of atrocious films. Hell, ROTS still made 850m 13 years ago on the back of two stinkers.

    I think it's a bit flimsy to handwave this away on the back of "well look at all the trouble it's had" when that's sort of the point.
     
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  2. La Calavera

    La Calavera Force Ghost star 4

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    Sep 2, 2015
    Yeah, but ROTS was backed by good critical reception (compared to previous movies), the story of Anakin actually becoming Vader which was still the biggest selling point of the prequels and the one thing everyone and their mothers wanted to see (more than a random movie about not-Harrison Han Solo doing a random adventure), and it had Ewan McGregor’s Obi-Wan, who had become another big selling point. And criticism aside, Hayden Christensen’s Anakin looks in ROTS looked hot.

    I don’t know what would be the minimum of how much a SW movie should make at the BO just by brand recognition alone. The marketing also plays an important factor in public awareness. For instance, there was a TCW animated movie that did very little, but I honestly never realized that movie was even at the theaters (I was a bit disconnected from the franchise back when the movie popped up). I think it's fair to discuss what a sequel to the Skywalker Saga should be expected to make minimum, but it's harder to define that when it comes to these random Anthology movies that are just side stories, and a big chunk of the audience simply doesn't give a damn.
     
    Last edited: May 23, 2018
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  3. Xander Vos

    Xander Vos Jedi Master star 4

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    Aug 3, 2013
    The fact Rogue One, starring a bunch of characters no one had heard of was able to crack 1bn but a film starring Han Solo, Chewbacca and Lando - played by hot property Donald Glover - is "expected" to make only 600-700m is a bit bizarre to me.
     
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  4. Darth Smurf

    Darth Smurf Small, but Lethal star 6

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    Dec 22, 2015
    Let's see
     
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  5. La Calavera

    La Calavera Force Ghost star 4

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    Sep 2, 2015
    Which is why I specified in my post that I believe Solo is going to be hampered by certain conditions that will certainly make it harder to make near RO levels in the BO.

    1. It doesn’t come after TFA when the fan excitement was over the moon. This one comes after TLJ when the fandom is divided, a lot feeling lukewarm/disappointed about the franchise.

    2. Rogue One benefited from really great critical reception, really great WOM, and a largely empty December with virtually no competition. Solo, doesn’t really have those same exact benefits,

    3. Solo movie has been coitized since literally its announcement. A lot of fans really don’t want to see Han Solo being played by anyone else other than Harrison Ford. Rogue One was mostly well received and looked forward since its announced, with only some expressing “who cares” feelings.
     
  6. Xander Vos

    Xander Vos Jedi Master star 4

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    Aug 3, 2013
    But people literally just said that a dip in the box office for Solo doesn't reflect opinion on TLJ?
     
  7. La Calavera

    La Calavera Force Ghost star 4

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    Sep 2, 2015
    I don't care what people said before, I just replied to the idea of Solo being a not wanted movie. Technically it isn't, but if it manages to make 700M ww, then it will be good given the circumstances.

    IMO.
     
    Last edited: May 23, 2018
  8. 2Cleva

    2Cleva Chosen One star 5

    Registered:
    Apr 28, 2002
    Hmmm. This is getting more into Solo - does this reflect TLJ? I would argue so but definitely see the other side.

    EW - known Star Wars cheerleaders,

    http://ew.com/movies/2018/05/22/solo-box-office-tracking/

    Personally - Star Wars losing its luster is disappointing but not surprising. They don't make them like they used to.
     
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  9. godisawesome

    godisawesome Skywalker Saga Undersheriff star 6 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Dec 14, 2010
    Deadpool and Infinity War (to a lesser extent) are definitely going to still have momentum going forward.
     
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  10. La Calavera

    La Calavera Force Ghost star 4

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    Sep 2, 2015
    Also Jurassic World 2 in the international markets starting June 6.
     
  11. Darth Smurf

    Darth Smurf Small, but Lethal star 6

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    Dec 22, 2015
    Did anyone yet ask if JW2 was "needed"
     
  12. Ubraniff Zalkaz

    Ubraniff Zalkaz Jedi Grand Master star 4

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    Feb 26, 2014
    Solo will make at least a billion.
     
  13. 2Cleva

    2Cleva Chosen One star 5

    Registered:
    Apr 28, 2002
    A Star Was movie should - regardless of competition. Will it? TBD.

    Projecting for an opening weekend at half of what TFA did - with it relying on nostalgia the most since TFA, isn't an ideal start to $1B.
     
    Last edited: May 23, 2018
  14. lavjoricso

    lavjoricso Force Ghost star 4

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    May 25, 2001
    At the very least it should be at the 1 billion mark.
     
  15. Ubraniff Zalkaz

    Ubraniff Zalkaz Jedi Grand Master star 4

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    Feb 26, 2014
    Ok.
     
    Last edited: May 23, 2018
  16. Glitterstimm

    Glitterstimm Force Ghost star 6

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    Dec 30, 2017
    TFA, RO, and TLJ all benefited from news events that were relevant to non-fandom audiences and carried their box office haul into record breaking territory. With TFA it was the first return of SW in over 10 years and the return of Harrison Ford after 30. Ford was prominently marketed as a relatable link between the old SW and the new, an easily understandable point of relevance for movie-goers who usually aren’t into fantasy/scifi or haven’t been recently. TFA was promoted as more than a movie, but an historical event, and to be fair, it kind of was. I remember it felt like everyone was going to see it.

    The context of RO’s release is complicated, and I’m not sure anyone fully understands it, but there are two factors that went hand in hand and I think are critical to consider: the aftermath of Trump’s election, and the death of Carrie Fischer. It’s easy to forget now, and maybe those of you who don’t live in the US didn’t see this, but the results of the 2016 election caused a brief hysteria where liberals were seriously questioning whether society was about to dramatically transform into a totalitarian dystopia. RO’s revolutionary aesthetic was immediately relevant in this context, and its “hope” tagline was an easy hook. Additionally, Fischer’s passing, which occurred during RO’s second week, became a cross-over news story as expected for an iconic actress, and tv segments pointed out that she had a pseudo-cameo that fans would find cathartic. Her reputation as a feminist was usually mentioned. I remember seeing these two factors come together when I was at the January 21 women’s march in Los Angeles (a large anti-Trump protest), where I saw dozens and maybe hundreds of signs with Carrie Fischer/Leia and the rebel icon. Some people actually had quotes from Catalyst and Bloodline on their signs. I admit this is all anecdotal but I feel like these unusual circumstances contributed to RO’s longevity at the box office.

    TLJ benefited from showcasing the return of Hamill as Skywalker, a selling point that was relentlessly telegraphed as we all remember. I think this was somewhat less compelling to general audiences than the return of Ford in TFA (Ford was an A-list actor for years after ROTJ while Hamill became almost cult), but the Luke character was as iconic as ever and relevant to even the most casual movie-goer. Furthermore, TLJ was the last opportunity (we think) to see Fischer on screen and her legacy became the focus of many interest pieces in its lead up. TLJ didn’t feel like a cultural event at its opening the same way that TFA did, but it still felt big, and the ominous tone of finality in its trailers hammered that home.

    Solo just doesn’t have any of these cross-over stories that will attract the kinds of people who don’t usually go to see movies with aliens and laser guns. Donald Glover is undoubtedly a star on the rise, but he hasn’t made it huge yet. The “return” of Han Solo just doesn’t resonate with casual audiences, especially after his return in TFA only a few years ago. Additionally, Solo will not benefit from the Christmas holiday like the others, and I haven’t heard any stories about Disney aggressively blocking out competition at the theaters like they did with TLJ. I don’t see the hook that will carry this one over the 1b mark.
     
  17. PendragonM

    PendragonM Force Ghost star 4

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    Mar 7, 2018
    They better hope they make 1 billion, if those stories of the budget soaring over $250 mil, before marketing, are true. Because that is a serious hole, even with Movie Accounting. I doubt they will, though. There's no hook, as @Glitterstimm noted above. Plus, although no one wants to believe it on these boards, apparently, there are angry fans who are not going. There's more fans like me who saw TFA and decided no more, especially after the way Han was treated in TFA. The early reviews aren't exactly promising either, plus IW and Deadpool are still strong at the box office.
     
  18. Xander Vos

    Xander Vos Jedi Master star 4

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    Aug 3, 2013
    Can I also point out that opening in May was a choice. There were endless reasons to push it back to December but they didn't, so using the "It has so much to compete with" as a crutch for why it didn't make as much as RO is still a criticism of Disney/LFL's decision.
     
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  19. PendragonM

    PendragonM Force Ghost star 4

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    Mar 7, 2018
    As friends of mine have noted, exactly, it was a choice. So if it doesn't earn as much as expected, they can point to "oh, Infinity War and Deadpool. And Jurassic World!" It's not sinking on its own...
     
  20. Xander Vos

    Xander Vos Jedi Master star 4

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    Aug 3, 2013
    Precisely. I think they might have seen the warning signs and essentially 'wrote-off' Solo, rather than risk pushing it to December, still having lower BO and then having no legitimate excuse.
     
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  21. Bor Mullet

    Bor Mullet Force Ghost star 7

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    Apr 6, 2018
    A very smart analysis, overall. Essentially, Solo isn't tapping into anything zeitgeisty at the moment. At least, not anything I'm aware of.
     
  22. Xander Vos

    Xander Vos Jedi Master star 4

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    Aug 3, 2013
    Except featuring one of the most iconic 'good guy' characters, starring a guy who is on the cutting edge of 'zeitgeistness' in Donald Glover, and is a nostalgic film on the heels of a film that spawned a large group of people hungering for a more nostalgia-heavy SW film.

    Yeah apart from that..
     
  23. Bor Mullet

    Bor Mullet Force Ghost star 7

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    Apr 6, 2018
    OK, no need to get snarky about it. I'm a huge cheerleader for this film, and hope it does really well.

    You do make a good point about Glover, particularly coming off a critically-acclaimed season 2 of Atlanta, and most importantly, the profound message of This is America (which more than hits the zeitgeist). Hopefully that helps. Though Lucasfilm doesn't seem to be tying Childish Gambino hype to its Solo promotion, so I'm not sure how aware most audiences are that the This is America artist is also in the new Solo movie. Further, some critics have noted that Glover's turn in Solo is a letdown following the explosiveness and artistic quality of his recent output.

    In short, Solo, as a film, doesn't seem to be speaking to the zeitgeist, even if some of its actors are.
     
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  24. Xander Vos

    Xander Vos Jedi Master star 4

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    Aug 3, 2013
    Well did any of the previous 3 hit the zeitgeist? A flimsy argument could be made about RO, but I never felt that in the lead up, only criticism from Trumpists after it came out. TLJ and TFA banked purely on nostalgia, in much the same way as Solo is.
     
  25. Glitterstimm

    Glitterstimm Force Ghost star 6

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    Dec 30, 2017
    If Solo had Harrison Ford returning as the eponymous character, then I might agree with you. But he's not, so no.

    PS: Just a reminder this is still no spoilers zone, and I've been trying my best to avoid them, so please nobody ruin the surprise for me in case he does make a cameo. A man can hope :D
     
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