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  1. In Memory of LAJ_FETT: Please share your remembrances and condolences HERE

Middle East Politics Discussion v2.0

Discussion in 'Archive: The Senate Floor' started by Ender Sai, May 29, 2005.

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  1. SuperWatto

    SuperWatto Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2000
    I'm talking general public opinion, not you TFN knowitalls :D
     
  2. Ender Sai

    Ender Sai Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Feb 18, 2001
    To be fair, it's just Mr44 and me that know everything.

    (Read: "Me" :p)

    :D

    ;)

    E_S
     
  3. Rogue_Follower

    Rogue_Follower Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Nov 12, 2003
  4. Ender Sai

    Ender Sai Chosen One star 10

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    Feb 18, 2001
    Cheers RF, I was just listening to BBC Radio on the way to work, and heard about it.

    Really just makes me shake my head. Not much else I can say...

    E_S
     
  5. Ghost

    Ghost Chosen One star 8

    Registered:
    Oct 13, 2003
    What can anyone do? It looks like all we can do about this is watch, and hope for the best. Maybe early elections? Do you think they would go to Fatah or Hamas, though?
     
  6. Ender Sai

    Ender Sai Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Feb 18, 2001
    Economist piece 1
    Economist piece 2

    Well, Gaza would go to Hamas and the West Bank, to Fatah. So you'd have the situation we have now.

    Though it's worth noting Abbas sacked the Government.

    E_S
     
  7. ShaneP

    ShaneP Ex-Mod Officio star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Mar 26, 2001
    I read that FATAH requested that Israel allow arms into the territories so they can defend themselves vut that Israel refused....at least in Gaza. They're still considering backing them on the West Bank.

    Who would Israel rather face?
     
  8. Mr44

    Mr44 VIP star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    May 21, 2002
    I think it's not who would Israel have to face, but rather, it's best for everyone to keep this as contained as possible. This has actually been brewing for a while, in sense it's like the Godfather, that the bad blood has to be sorted out.

    Any weapons that Israel would allow in now, would most definately find their way back out whne the situation stabilizes.
     
  9. ShaneP

    ShaneP Ex-Mod Officio star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Mar 26, 2001
    Any weapons that Israel would allow in now, would most definately find their way back out whne the situation stabilizes.

    That was the reason for the Israeli denial. They didn't want those arms to fall into the hands of Hamas.
    I understand that but it's too bad to see the least extreme of the two factions taking the brunt in Gaza right now.


     
  10. Mr44

    Mr44 VIP star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

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    May 21, 2002
    Yeah, I'm torn though. In a real sense Abbas is now reaping what he has sown with regards to the Hamas induced fracturing. He didn't mitigate Hamas's reach when he had the chance, and I don'y just mean confronting the organization, but rather offering any kind of alternative. A mainstream Fatah could have done wonders without the stigma of outside influence, even if such support had to occur.

    I realize that this was an almost impossible order for Abbas, but I wonder how things could have turned out?
     
  11. DarthKarde

    DarthKarde Jedi Knight star 5

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    Jun 28, 2002
    To be honest this has been coming a long time. Abbas, while on the whole being a good and inteligent man, was never likely to maintain relative Palestinian unity. In many ways the PA has been a shambles since its creation and Fatah only remained in power for so long due to Arafat's charisma and cunning (two things that Abbas lacks). While Fatah remain in control on the West Bank and will do for some time the movement is essentially dying and without new and vibrant leadership that will not be reversed. I certainly hope that Shimon Peres sticks to his word and pardons Marwan Barghouti.
     
  12. LostOnHoth

    LostOnHoth Chosen One star 5

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    Feb 15, 2000
    What is happening now was inevitable following the death of Arafat. It's an Arab thing. Arabs follow the strong charismatic leader, when that leader dies it all goes to hell -see Iraq. You can't create a vacuum because the vacuum will quickly become filled with all of the cultural splintering inherent in Middle East culture. The only thing that has brough some semblance of unity in the Middle East is Islam and even that went to hell after the death of the Prophet.

    Abbas has done the right thing - whilst I sympathise with Hamas I believe that the only way to achieve a Palestinian State is to be pragmatic. Abbas must join with Israel and the US and the rest of the world and oppose Islamic fundamentalist violence. If that means becoming a traitor to an element of Palestinian society then so be it.

    The prize that must be won is a Palestinian State which has the support of the US and Israel (excluding the extreme Israeli right of course who are just as rabid as Hamas - see Rabin). I hope that Abbas has now put the Palestinian people back on that road and ourt of the Hamas led wilderness, democratic elections be damned.
     
  13. Jedi Ben

    Jedi Ben Chosen One star 9

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    Jul 19, 1999
    I'm fairly certain Rabin could have sorted the mess out, forcing everyone to go from A to B for the greater good - which is why he had to die, I suppose.
     
  14. Mr44

    Mr44 VIP star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

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    May 21, 2002
    Well, Rabin wouldn't have been able to influence internal PLO matters, the type of which is currently being seen.

    The problem with Oslo was that it was a good start, but it still didn't represent a long term solution to the overriding issue, or rather, it relied on voluntary cooperation which was subject to this exact type of leadership "see-saw."
     
  15. Darth Mischievous

    Darth Mischievous Jedi Grand Master star 6

    Registered:
    Oct 12, 1999
    It still comes basically down to the charter of HAMAS, which is the extinction of the state of Israel. No peace will ever exist there as long as they're in power.

    Hopefully, Abbas - and more moderate minds - will prevail, at least in the West Bank...

    If the Palestinians throw themselves behind HAMAS completely in the West Bank as well as now in Gaza, then they will get what they voted for.
     
  16. LostOnHoth

    LostOnHoth Chosen One star 5

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    Feb 15, 2000
    It's ironic that Rabin has featured in two major events that have really shaped the nature of the Palestonian/Israeli conflict - the Six Day War and his own assassination. It's doubly ironic that he was assassinated for being a dove yet was a hero of the Six Day War.

    I agree that if Rabin had lived he could have made significant progress - the lack of an Ariel Sharon would have done wonders for the PLO leadership and may well have prevented the ascendancy of Hamas into Palestinian politics. We'll never know. The Israeli extreme right saw to that.

    I agree DM - Hamas is a dead end. The thing is, in my experience, nobody really cares about Gaza. It's the West Bank and more importantly the reclamation of East Jerusalem that is the important goal. Most of the people living in the West Bank wouldn't travel to Gaza if they had a gun pointed to their head - it's like the very worst gangland parts of LA.

    I think Abbas will prevail in the end - there will always be an extremist faction of Palestinian society and there will always be an extremist faction in Isralei society - the trick is, as you say, for more moderate minds to prevail and unite together against the extremism.
     
  17. Ender Sai

    Ender Sai Chosen One star 10

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    Feb 18, 2001
    Well what people fail to realise is that heavy handedness and discriminatory policy from Israel helped fuel the demand for Hamas in the first place. And before our colleagues from the US swoop to Israel's defence, tell me how it's not discrimination to give 1,000,000 Palestianians the same amount of water you'd give 10,000 Israeli Jews? o_O

    In any event, the best thing to come out of this split so far has been the meeting of Abbas' near-exiled government and the Israeli cabinet, which gives both an endorsement to the Abbas government as well as a sign of Israel's recognition of the way forward. This will split Palestinians further, between those who want peace at any cost and those who remain ideologically opposed to Israel on every level.

    Do not assume this will simply peter out, however - I would suspect more infighting to continue until Hamas' back is broken. Which is easier said than done; Fatah's Force 17 don't have the resources and if Israel gets involved it will likely draw external agents provocateur in.

    Yay.

    E_S
     
  18. DarthArsenal6

    DarthArsenal6 Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Oct 16, 2001
    don't forget US sanction on Palistine when Hamaz came in to power.

    What i don't get is didn't the palistines voted for Hamaz to be in Power ?

    so Palisteins are getting a raw deal ?
     
  19. LostOnHoth

    LostOnHoth Chosen One star 5

    Registered:
    Feb 15, 2000
    I think all the players have to assume that they will never get consensus - the trick will be how to best manage the inevitable and eternal conflict moving forward.

     
  20. DarthArsenal6

    DarthArsenal6 Jedi Grand Master star 5

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    Oct 16, 2001
    Sorry Lof H i didn't get you could explain
     
  21. LostOnHoth

    LostOnHoth Chosen One star 5

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    Feb 15, 2000
    What I mean is that there will never be harmony amongst the Palestinians and there will never be harmony amongst the Israelis. There will always be those in both camps that are idealogically opposed to the existence of the other.

    So, assuming this to be the case, the way forward is for the Israeli and Palestinian governments to manage that opposition, ie, to take steps to contain that opposition so that it does not create tensions between the two governemnts - they must work together.

    The Palestinian people did vote for Hamas - but again culturally they went with the strongest, loudest, most decisive alternative. Arafat was dead. Also, Hamas have massive support because of its humanitarian operations within Gaza. Fatah had become too much of a political party and less of a charitable/humanitarian organisation. Arafat was also known to have amased a vast personal fortune and there were always long lines of Palestinians wanting money from him.
     
  22. Ender Sai

    Ender Sai Chosen One star 10

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    Feb 18, 2001
    Well, I think Ireland is in part an indication of what could happen, positively, though of course circumstances vary greatly between the two.

    But otherwise, it's got to be a joint Israeli-Palestinian move to peace so that the violence is marginalised and then managed - I agree.

    E_S
     
  23. DarthArsenal6

    DarthArsenal6 Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Oct 16, 2001
    yikes !


    Israel wont back down because of Palistein suicide bombers killing Israeli civilains
    Palistien won't back down because of Israeli butal handling on Palisten civilans

    a vicious cycle ! [face_plain]

    I too pray for peace and that joint-venture from both party Israel and Palistien come up.
    I also hope that both sides learn how to understand and trust one another otherwise there wont be anyone living there. [face_plain]


    Stop the Madness !!!!
     
  24. DarthKarde

    DarthKarde Jedi Knight star 5

    Registered:
    Jun 28, 2002
    The only problem is that the new government (made up entirely of independants apart from one Fatah member) has almost no legitimacy in the eyes of the Palestinian people. Hamas can easily paint it as US/Israeli/Western puppet. As I said last week I really hope that Shomon Peres sticks to his word and pardons Marwan Barghouti. Barghouti is probably the only man who is lauded on the Palestinian street yet pragmatic enough to make compromises.
     
  25. Ender Sai

    Ender Sai Chosen One star 10

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    Feb 18, 2001
    I agree, DK, but I think you also need to consider that HAMAS has failed to be a force in improving the lives of Palestinians. Granted the embargo did not help, but otherwise Palestinian moderates will be faced with a radical or puppet government with a chance of making stuff happen.

    I agree about the pardon for Barghouti, however.

    E_S
     
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