NFL Playoff Speculation Thread

Discussion in 'Archive: The Arena' started by solojones, Nov 21, 2006.

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  1. JediCouncilMember Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jul 15, 2003
    star 4
    Okay, Steelers fans will appreciate this, I've figured out how they can still make the playoffs. :D

    Yes, bored at work today. :p

    Here are the teams: Pit, Jets, Cin, Jax, KC, Den, Buf, Mia.

    1st - Root for SD, Indy, Balt and NE to keep winning.

    2nd - Here is the break down of the teams, remaing schd and outcome that can occur.
    I tried to be pretty honest when it comes to teams like SF, Oak, GB, etc and figure the playoff contenders would beat them.
    I also tried to limit tie breakers and have teams go 8-8.

    Pit (4-7 obviously must win out):
    TB - W
    Cle - W
    Car - W
    Balt - W
    Cin - W
    Finish: 9-7

    Jets (6-5)
    GB - W
    Buf - L
    Min - L
    Mia - L
    Oak - W
    Finish: 8-8

    Cinc (6-5)
    Balt - L
    Oak - W
    Ind - L
    Den - W
    Pit - L
    Finish: 8-8

    Jax (6-5)
    Mia - L
    Ind - L
    Ten - W
    NE - L
    KC - W
    Finish: 8-8

    KC (7-4)
    Cle - W
    Balt - L
    SD - L
    Oak - W
    Jax - L
    Finish: 9-7

    Den (7-4)
    Sea - L
    SD - L
    Ariz - W
    Cin - L
    SF - W
    Finish: 9-7

    Buf (5-6)
    SD - L
    Jets - W
    Mia - W
    Ten - W
    Balt - L
    Finish: 8-8

    Mia (5-6)
    Jax - W
    NE - L
    Buf - L
    Jets - W
    Ind - L
    Finish: 7-9

    Now, there are some things that could flip flop like the Buf-Mia game, but hey it's tough to see 5 wks into the future. :D

    So I have Pit, KC and Den all 9-7, well KC would edge out Den (due to divison record) and Pit edges out KC due to head-to-head so the WC would be Pit and KC. But at that pt beating out KC doesn't matter, it is just making sure it isn't Pit vs. Den for the last spot.

    I think I was pretty fair in handing out wins and losses and other then Sea over Den I think I had all NFC teams losing.

    The biggest concern will be the last 3 Pit games Car, Balt, Cinc. Car who knows which team shows up? Balt should have the divison by then so it could be an easier game and then it would all come down to Pit vs. Cincy.

    So you can see, Pit could still defend its title in the post season. :D
  2. solojones Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Sep 27, 2000
    star 9
    If this happens, I will say that God really wanted Pittsburg in the playoffs, because that's a miracle :p

    I am really nervous about the rest of KC's season. Two games we really should win, but sometimes those are the ones you unexpectantly lose... but even if we do win the two we should win, having to play SD, Balt, and Jax at the end of the season sucks. My hope is to be able to beat at least two of those three, and have the chips fall our way as far as other WC contendors losing.

    Even though the Chiefs would be in with your senario, I don't like to think about losing more than 2 of our remaining games.


    -sj loves kevin spacey
  3. JediCouncilMember Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jul 15, 2003
    star 4
    Realistically, I think KC has a good shot at going 10-6 and seems pretty safe as a playoff team. I really don't like the switch to Cutler for Den, I think that helps you out bigtime.

    I think all the other AFC WC teams have real holes, so really anything can happen, but being 7-4 at this point is a good start and getting Green back is a nice Bonus. Not too many teams add a Pro-Bowl QB late in the year.

    The Bears are set, I just had to come up with a way for Pit to get in. Yes, it is a long shot, and if Troy and Hines miss significant time it may be better to just write off the year, but it was still fun coming up with the possibility of them getting in.
  4. Quixotic-Sith Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Jun 22, 2001
    star 6
    Pittsburgh[/h]

    There's an "h" at the end, dammit! :p

    I'm going to call both Pittsburgh and Philly out of the playoffs this year. It has not been a good year for either of us (I consider the Eagles to be my surrogate team - half of my family lives in or around the Philly area).
  5. Baron-Soontir-Fel Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 15, 2005
    star 5
    I don't want to get greedy, but with six wins already, there's no reasons the Penguin can rally the troops (Jets) for some more with some beatable teams on the schedule. The defense has adapted somewhat to the switch to the 3-4, and has done a much better job applying pressure on quarterbacks (the run defense still needs a lot of improvement, even after holding the hapless Texans to nothing). What is helping the switch is the strong play of the secondary, with Kerry Rhodes making plays everywhere (either in coverage or in the corner blitz).

    As for the offense, the three-headed running back committee still needs some work, but both Houston and Washington showed flashes of potential and Barlow is actually a pretty good goal-line back. Coles and Cotchery are great team players, as both guys routinely sacrifice themselves with Chad's short passes over the middle but also find ways to make big plays. Even McCareins, in Mangini's doghouse, is contributing on special teams (on that note, Justin Miller is a beast).
  6. New_York_Jedi Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Mar 16, 2002
    star 6
    I'm not too up on the NFC, but I'll give thoughts on the AFC.

    AFC East:
    New England has this. The Jets have certainly played decently, and the Dolphins are doing better, but I don't see the Pats letting the the division slip away, this year at least.

    AFC North: I think the Ravens hang on to the division, barely. The Bengals would need to at least go 3-1 and the Ravens 1-3 for the Bengals to take the division. The Bengals get the Raiders and Steelers at home, and go on the road to take on Indy and Denver. I can easily see them losing two of those games. The Ravens, for their part, get Cleveland and Buffalo at home, and take on KC and the Steelers on the road. I don't see them losing three of those games.

    AFC South:
    Indy takes the division, fairly easily.

    AFC West: Pretty tough division. I think the chargers hold on to the division. LT is going wild, and they play their toughest match ups at home (Denver, KC), which should help. They already beat Denver at Denver, so they should be able to replicate it at home, especially with Denver starting a rook. They lost to KC at arrowhead, but only by three points, so at home I think they still have a good chance of winning. But even saying they lose to KC, They should beat Denver, Arizona, and win at Buffalo. They'll probably beat the Seahawks also. They could easily end up 13-3, or 12-4. Even at 12 and 4, the Chiefs or Broncos would need to win all of their last five games to catch them, and I don't see that happening, particularly with the Broncos.


    In terms of wild card, I think Kansas City makes it and the last spot will be between the Bengals and Broncos, probably going to be decided on their Christmas Eve match up. I'd take the Bengals, but I'm not 100% sure.

    In terms of final records:

    Indy: 14-2
    SD: 13-3
    New England 12-4
    Baltimore: 12-4 (I'm not sure how the tie-breaker works here for seeding purposes)
    Kansas: 10-6
    Cincinatti: 9-7
    Denver: 9-7, but misses play offs due to Bengals winning the head to head game

  7. solojones Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Sep 27, 2000
    star 9
    Kansas. KANSAS?! It's in Missouri :p

    Well today was certainly disappointing for the Chiefs, but I'd been saying all week (and I wasn't alone among KC fans) that this was going to be tough. If our O played like this and our D played ok, we'd be making a killing. But our D aparently thinks it's a good idea to revert to the past three seasons today [face_plain]

    If we get it together, I think we have a shot at winning against Baltimore, Oakland, and Jacksonville. It would take a mild miracle to win at SD. Right now I'm not at all sure about our playoff hopes...

    Today we're the 8th seed. You know why? Because the AFC is ridiculous [face_plain] How is it that we have 5 teams that are 7-5 duking it out for the 5/6 spots, while in the NFC the 5th spot is comfortably with 6-5 Carolina and right now the 6th spot is with the freaking 6-6 GIANTS?!


    -sj loves kevin spacey

  8. JediCouncilMember Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jul 15, 2003
    star 4
    Okay, I'm updating my obsurdly ridiculus way for the Steelers to make the playoffs. The Cincy win was a bit annoying. But here we go and this would rely on massive 9-7 tie breakers. I've kicked off Buf and Mia.

    Pit (5-7 obviously must win out)
    Cle - W
    Car - W
    Balt - W
    Cin - W
    Finish: 9-7

    Jets (7-5)
    Buf - L
    Min - L
    Mia - L
    Oak - W
    Finish: 8-8

    Cinc (7-5)
    Oak - W
    Ind - L
    Den - W
    Pit - L
    Finish: 9-7

    Jax (7-5)
    Ind - L
    Ten - W
    NE - L
    KC - L
    Finish: 8-8

    KC (7-5)
    Balt - L
    SD - L
    Oak - W
    Jax - W
    Finish: 9-7

    Den (7-5)
    SD - L
    Ariz - W
    Cin - L
    SF - W
    Finish: 9-7

    It may be a bit of a stretch to think the Jets might lose to Buf, Min, and Mia, but I didn't want to have to look at the possible common opponent tie-breaker if they went 9-7. If they lose to the 2 AFC teams Cincy would own the Conf tie-breaker if they lose to 1 AFC and 1 NFC they might edge out Pit due to conf record. so for simplicity they go 8-8.

    So I've got Pit, Cin, KC and Den all at 9-7. Well Cincy would beat out Pit due to conference record and KC would beat out Den due to division record. Cincy would then edge out KC due to head-to-head and then Pit would edge out KC due to head-to-head as well. So you'd see Cincy and Pit as the Wild Cards.

    I'm pretty sure that is the way it works, first you find the top of the respective division then you apply the other tie-breakers.
  9. solojones Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Sep 27, 2000
    star 9
    Well KC still makes it so I still like your insanity :p

    I would ideally like to win Baltimore, Oakland, and Jacksonville. We'll see. I think this Sunday's game against Baltimore is pretty much going to tell us whether or not we have a shot at the playoffs... of course isn't that every week? :p

    -sj loves kevin spacey
  10. DarthIntegral Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jul 13, 2005
    star 7
    Dude. Give up hope. join me in scouting top tier offensive linemen in the draft. Our Stillers ain't gonna get the chance to defend their title. The loss to the Raiders guaranteed that.
  11. JediCouncilMember Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jul 15, 2003
    star 4
    Don't worry, I don't expect Pit to get it, but I just love this sort of stuff with playoff tiebreakers, picking games, etc.
    It is more just for fun, I do the predictions anyway, and it really doesn't take much to do a little cross referencing on if X wins what do Y and Z have to do.

    The good thing is that Pit should end up with probably a top 15 pick and the are somewhat set at the skill positions so yeah O line would be nice. I'd also sit Troy and Hines for the rest of the year regardless of how healthy they may be in another week or two. I'd let Ben air it out a bit more just to work on the passing game with Holmes. Other then the picks, Ben is putting up some pretty good numbers a little low with just over 60% comp but he will easily go over 3000 yds passing and end up near 20 td, not bad for being in an accident, having surgery and then a concussion.

    My realistic playoff speculation is leaning towards two of these three:
    Cincy, Jets, KC

    I think Den is out with Cutler, and I don't buy Jax as being consistent enough.

    If the Jets take adv of their schd they should get it and that would leave KC and Cincy fighting it out. The loss to Cle could be killer, but I'd love to see Pit beat Cincy in wk 17 to knock them out.
  12. GRAND_MOFF_KEVIN Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jul 4, 2004
    star 5
    NFC for the wild cards I have NY (still not a terrible team) and Atlanta (easy schedule). Obviously I'd love to see my Eagles get in but they have a hard schedule. AFC wild cards I could see Bengles and Jets. Don't sleep on the Jets, Mangini is the coach of the year IMO.
  13. SLR Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Oct 20, 2002
    star 5
    As much as it pains me, I am conflicted about the Eagles making the playoffs. As a fan I always want the team to win and do well and make the playoffs. On the other hand, I am realistic and know that this team is not good and is no longer a top team in the league. If they make the playoffs this year, it is only because the NFC is so weak this year. This team has serious problems that need to be addressed in the offseason. They need to make numerous changes to once again be an upper echelon team. My fear is if they make the playoffs, the conservative organization will stay the same and not make the tough choices and decisions they need to make to improve the team. I would rather the team make changes (coaching, plan and personnel) over the off-season and start building to the future then back door into the playoffs because of a weak conference and suffer in mediocrity for the next few years.
  14. JediCouncilMember Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jul 15, 2003
    star 4
    Okay, I did this for Pit so I might as well try it for the rest of the AFC 7-5 teams. Maybe I'll get to the NFC this afternoon. It's been really slow at work lately. :D

    Jets, Cincy, Jax, KC, Den are all 7-5.

    The only games within this group are Cin vs. Den and KC vs. Jax.

    Scenerio 1
    Assume:
    All teams win out
    Cin beats Den
    KC beats Jax

    That leaves (conf record):
    Jets 11-5 (8-4)
    Cin 11-5 (9-3)
    KC 11-5 (7-5)

    Cincy adv due to Conf Record.
    Jets adv due to Conf Record.

    Jets, Cincy control own destiny, KC requires help even if they win out.

    Scenerio 2
    Assume:
    All teams win out
    Den beats Cin
    Jax beats KC

    Jets 11-5 (8-4)
    Den 11-5 (9-3)
    Jax 11-5 (8-4)

    Den adv due to Conf Record.
    Jax adv due to win over Jets.

    Den and Jax control own destiny, Jets require help even if they win out.

    Scenerio 3
    Assume:
    All teams win out
    Cin beats Den
    Jax beats KC

    Jets 11-5 (8-4)
    Cin 11-5 (9-3)
    Jax 11-5 (8-4)

    Cincy adv due to Conf Record.
    Jax adv due to win over Jets.

    Cincy and Jax control own destiny, Jets require help even if they win out.

    Scenerio 4
    Assume:
    All teams win out
    Den beats Cin
    KC beats Jax

    Jets 11-5 (8-4)
    Den 11-5 (9-3)
    KC 11-5 (7-5)

    KC edges out Den (division record, so KC vs. Jets means:

    Jets adv due to Conf Record.
    KC adv over Den due to Division Record.

    Jets and KC control own destiny, and Den requires help even if they win out.

    Analysis:

    I really don't want to go through the rest of the games, but the basics for the "everybody wins out" situatons are:

    Jets fans - root for KC to beat Jax (and root against both Cincy and Den)
    Cincy fans - just win out, you control your own destiny
    Jax fans - just win out, you control your own destiny
    KC fans - root for Den to beat Cincy (or Jets to lose)
    Den fans - root for Jax over KC (or Jets to lose)
  15. JediCouncilMember Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jul 15, 2003
    star 4
    The NFC was actually easier to do.

    Just the 6-6 teams, Phil, NYG, Atl, Car.

    There are a lot of common games, infact each team has two, they are:
    PHI-NYG
    PHI-ATL
    NYG-CAR
    ATL-CAR

    So basically, none of these teams can cry come playoff time, just win out and you are in at 10-6.

    They all have pretty tough schds too.

    PHIL
    wash
    nyg
    dal
    atl

    NYG
    car
    phil
    n.o.
    wash

    ATL
    t.b.
    dal
    car
    phil

    CAR
    nyg
    pit
    atl
    n.o.
  16. ApolloSmileGirl Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Jun 18, 2004
    star 8
    It's going to be interesting watching all of those 6-6 teams beat each other up for a wildcard spot.
  17. JediCouncilMember Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jul 15, 2003
    star 4
    Yeah, realistically I can't see how the NFC avoids having an 8-8 team make the playoffs.

    None of those teams are "hot" right now and unless something just clicks with one of them, you're right they are just going to beat each other up.

    What could be scary would be if one of those 5-7 teams like Min or SF steal a win somewhere.

    Hopefully one team will finish 9-7 but there could be a massive log jam at 8-8.
  18. ApolloSmileGirl Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Jun 18, 2004
    star 8
    What determines which team goes to the playoffs, if more than one team is tied?
  19. JediCouncilMember Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jul 15, 2003
    star 4
    If they are 3 teams from different divisons it would be if one of them beat the other 2 or did one lose to the other two. If there was no "sweep" for any team and that didn't apply then it would be better conference record, then common opponents or something.

    If two are from the same division while the third is not, then division tie-breakers apply first to see who ranks higher, then that team would be compared with the other team outside of the division based on head to head, then conf record, common opponent, etc.
  20. solojones Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Sep 27, 2000
    star 9
    Not that it's going to matter, because no NFC W.C. team is going to last long :p

    -sj loves kevin spacey
  21. Saruman-the-White Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 1, 2005
    star 4
    What about the upsets by both the 8-8 Rams at Seattle and the 8-8 Vikings at Green Bay two years ago? The Jets also beat the heavily favored Chargers, so the Wild Card round can be unpredictable.
  22. THE_JEDI_GUARDIAN Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jul 18, 2006
    star 3
    I really hope Chiefs win. If Eagles dont get in, Im rooting for KC. This week might be tough though, the Ravens IMO are the second best team in the NFL.
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