Official 2004 US Elections Thread

Discussion in 'Archive: The Senate Floor' started by Obi-Wan McCartney, Jul 6, 2004.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Obi-Wan McCartney Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 17, 1999
    star 5
    The following political offices will be up for election on November 2nd, 2004. All have been verified based on Politics1.com and Yahoo Elections search.


    During the course of any discussion, the following terms should be used in descriptions of political campaigns.

    LOCK A Lock means that the incumbent and/or challenger, short of some sort of biblical disaster, is virtually assured of re-election to the point that it will be a no-contest, slam dunk affair.

    Favored A Favored rating means the candidate seems to have certain things in their factor and is in all likely hood heading to re-election, but is by no means assured of re-election on the same vice. Bad misteps, the opposition putting out a good candidate, but for this person to lose would be an upset at the time I write this.

    TossUp Depending on whom is sent up against him, a FAVORED or LOCk can become a TOSS UP, if the conditions are right; also for states which have a tradition of one thing but a senator who stands for something else. This really is just what it means, that it could go either way, and at the time of this writing, regardless of mis-steps or disasters, or what the opposition does.

    Vulnerable Candidates who are vulnerable are candidates, for example, who have been caught up in a major scandal; who are running states which in all likelyhood won't re-elect that person. A candidate has to be in major trouble to be VULNERABLE.


    OPEN - If a candidate has chosen not to run for Re-Election, or is being Term Limited out in certain governors races, then the seat is OPEN, with no incumbent holding the seat.


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Candidates for the office of PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

    George W Bush, Incumbent

    Senator John F Kerry


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

    ***All 438 US House Seats will be up for Re-Election/Election in November 2nd, 2002. Vacancies could occur between now and then, for example, if a person dies while in office, steps down to run for a different office, and such. There could be more re-districting in several states.

    Key Information

    1) Texas Redistricting, expecting to add as many as a dozen new seats for the GOP in Texas.


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    United States Senators up for Re-Election in 2004

    Senators whose Terms of Service Expire in 2005
    DEMOCRATS

    ***Bayh, Evan Indianna-
    ***Boxer, Barbara-CA.
    ***Breaux, John-LA has announced his retirement, making this a Open Seat
    ***Dodd,Christophter-CT .
    ***Daschle, Tom-SD-
    ***Dorgan,BYron-ND .
    ***Edwards,John-NC has announced he will not seek Re-Election, making this an Open Seat
    ***Feingold,Russel-WI
    ***Graham,Bob-FL has announced he will not seek Re-Election, making this an Open Seat
    ***Hollings,Ernest-SC has announced he will not seek Re-Election, making this an Open Seat
    ***Inyonee,Daniel-HA
    ***Leahy,Patrick-VT
    ***Lincoln, Blanche-ARK
    ***Mikulski,Barbara-MD
    ***Miller, Zell- GA - Senator Zell Miller has announced he will not run for Re-Election in 2004, making this an Open Seat.
    ***Murray,Patty- WA.
    ***Reid, Harry- NV
    ***Schumer, Charles- NY
    ***Wyden, Ron- OR .


    Republicans

    ***Bennett, Robert-Utah
    ***Bond, Christopher-MO
    ***Brownback, Sam- KS
    ***Bunning, Jim-KY
    ***Campbell, Nighthorse-CO
    ***Crapo, Mike-ID
    ***Fiztgerald, Peter-IL has announced he will not seek Re-Election, making this an Open Seat
    ***Grassley, Chuck-IA
    ***Gregg, Judd-NH.
    ***McCain, John- AZ I
    ***Murkowski, Lisa-ALaska
    ***Nickels, Don- OK
    ***Shelby, Richard- AL
    ***Specter, Arlen- PA-
    ***Voinovich, George- OH


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    State Governorships up on November 2nd, 2002

    Montana- Governor Judy Martz (R), Incumbent

    Washington- Governor Gary Locke (D), Incumbe
  2. Vaderize03 Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Oct 25, 1999
    star 5
    Good move on Kerry's part.

    While inexperienced, and undoubtedly going to come under attack by republicans for it, Edwards charm is a nice counterbalance to Kerry's dryness and just might win him some battleground votes.

    We shall see.

    Peace,

    V-03
  3. Obi-Wan McCartney Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 17, 1999
    star 5
    Here is some info about Edwards from his Senate Website:

    ======================================================
    Sworn into office on January 6, 1999, Senator John Edwards has emerged as a champion for issues affecting the daily lives of regular people in North Carolina and the nation.
    Senator Edwards was a chief sponsor of the Bipartisan Patient Protection Act, strong and far-reaching patient protection legislation that passed the Senate in 2001.

    Senator Edwards?s bipartisan accomplishments also include a major investment in America?s public schools, strong antiterrorism measures, modernization of the nation?s banking system, sweeping campaign finance reform and legislation to fight corporate corruption.

    The News & Observer of Raleigh described Senator Edwards as ?smart, disciplined, [and] hard-working? with ?a down-home manner.? The Wall Street Journal called him a senator who ?impresses colleagues in behind-doors deliberations.? The Washington Post said Senator Edwards has ?the ability to think on his feet...master complex issues and...communicate in plain language to ordinary people.?

    Senator Edwards serves on four committees: Health, Education, Labor and Pensions; Intelligence; Judiciary; and Small Business.

    As part of his commitment to North Carolina, Senator Edwards has been to all 100 counties in the state, from Murphy (where he went to a college) to Manteo (where he honored Andy Griffith). Every week that the Senate is in session, he hosts Tar Heel Thursday, town-hall style meetings open to all North Carolinians visiting Washington.

    Born in 1953, Senator Edwards grew up in Robbins, a small town in the Piedmont. His father, Wallace, worked in textile mills for 36 years. His mother, Bobbie, had a number of jobs including working at the post office.

    A product of North Carolina public schools, Senator Edwards was the first person in his family to go to college. He worked his way through North Carolina State University and graduated with an honors degree in textiles in 1974. He earned a law degree with honors in 1977 from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

    He met his wife, Elizabeth, when both were law school students at Chapel Hill. They married in 1977, and have had four children. Their first child, Wade, died in 1996. Their eldest daughter, Catharine, is a student at Princeton University. The Edwards household also includes a six-year-old daughter, Emma Claire, and a four-year-old son, Jack.

    ====================================================

    For balance, here is what the RNC is saying about Edwards. It's long and you can tell they have been preparing this for a while. It starts out with Kerry's own attacks and then the launch into their own.
  4. Cyprusg Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Nov 16, 2002
    star 4
    I love it. Great move on Kerry's part.
  5. Crix-Madine Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 7, 2000
    star 4
    Best move he could have made, period.
  6. JediSmuggler Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 5, 1999
    star 5
    Edwards is going to help Kerry a little in terms of votes from women.

    However, there are some big problems that selecting Edwards has created.

    * The Chamber of Commerce will be working against Kerry/Edwards. For a Democrat to win the Presidency, they have to keep the Chamber of Commerce on the sidelines. There will be a backlash from business that will lead to action. There is a visceral dislike of trial lawyers.

    * Edwards will hurt Kerry in places where medical malpractice premiums have forced doctors to close up shop. Pennsylvania is one of those states. So is Florida. The "lawyer tax" created by class-action lawsuits is an issue now.

    * Face it, Kerry courted McCain big-time and got spurned. Edwards is his second choice. Kerry even took some shots at Edwards in the primary. This could be painted as another Kerry flip-flop.

    * Edwards might not really help in the South. It wasn't even a sure thing that he would win re-election. He retired to run for President.

    Gephardt would have been a much better choice, IMO, but he was probably viewed at too hawkish. Edwards does shore Kerry up with the anti-corporate wing of the Democratic party. The problem is, business will not sit still for the selection of Edwards.

    EDIT: Fixing a messed-up tag...
  7. DarthKarde Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Jun 28, 2002
    star 5
    A sensible move on the part of Kerry. The two contrast each other nicely.
  8. KnightWriter Administrator Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Nov 6, 2001
    star 8
    Well, I think this is a fantastic move on Kerry's part, and certainly moves me solidly into their camp.

    I'm a moderate, but Bush (and perhaps more importantly) his administration must be removed from office. It would be dangerous to this country to give them four more years.

    Edwards is charismatic, intelligent and quick-witted. He'll hold his own in the debates and do a superb job of campaigning. People who paint Kerry's selection of Edwards as another flip-flop wouldn't have voted for him anyway. Let them throw another dart at him.

    For people like me, this is a move that puts us solidly behind John Kerry in November. We'll see if it lasts.

  9. dizfactor Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Aug 12, 2002
    star 5
    The Chamber of Commerce will be working against Kerry/Edwards. For a Democrat to win the Presidency, they have to keep the Chamber of Commerce on the sidelines. There will be a backlash from business that will lead to action. There is a visceral[/i[ dislike of trial lawyers.

    i'm afraid to admit you may have a point here. however, i think that his energy and charisma will help motivate the Democratic base like none of the other contenders could have, and that has to be their first priority. hopefully, it will be enough.

    Everyone knows John McCain was Kerry's first choice for VP. And Kerry courted him quite a bit. Edwards was his second choice.

    the very public courtship was a really bad move on Kerry's part. i think, honestly, that McCain believes Kerry is the better man for the job, and i don't doubt that he, personally, will vote for Kerry once he's inside the booth. he has a deep bond of mutual respect and a long history of working with Kerry, and he clearly thinks Bush is an *******.

    that said, whatever you want to say about a "unity" ticket, McCain would basically have to leave the Republican Party. he's on tenuous ground within the party to begin with, and that would burn all the bridges he has left. i think McCain is still a Republican, still proud to be a Republican, and most importantly feels he can serve his country better as the unofficial leader of the quasi-moderate faction of the GOP than he could by essentially surrendering the party to Karl Rove and Cheney and DeLay and the rest.

    and, frankly, i think he's right. i'd rather him be working on reforming the GOP from within than see him switch sides. even if it would mean a slam-dunk for Kerry in November, long-term it's better to have reasonable people on the right than to win any single election, even this one.

    courting him so publicly was monumentally stupid for Kerry.
  10. Vaderbait Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Sep 26, 2001
    star 6
    I like Edwards, but he won't help much, I don't think. He didn't do too fantastic in the primaries, remember.

    Personally, I think Bush/Cheney is favored for the presidency. The debates will help them out, too. Bush is more likable and straight to the point than Kerry, and will easily make Kerry look like he's trying to fool the AMerican public. However, I think Edwards has the edge on Cheney in likability, but Cheney knows more about the world and things.
  11. ShaneP Ex-Mod Officio

    Member Since:
    Mar 26, 2001
    star 6
    Referring to McCain as a "moderate" just shows how conservative this country has become. The real Reagan legacy.

    McCain is about as big a spending cutter as you will find in either chamber.

    Well, except for Ron Paul. ;)

    They both are solid Goldwater-Reagan Republicans.
  12. Crix-Madine Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 7, 2000
    star 4
    Face it, Kerry courted McCain big-time and got spurned.

    I imagine the Kerry camp realized that he probably wouldn't cross over to run with Kerry. However, given the ticket possibility it was too much to pass up. That kind of ticket would spell doom for the Bush administration and isn't something you do not make an attempt at. They knew from the beginning the chances were slim.

    Edwards is a fantastic choice. I'm behind Kerry no matter what, but this was the pick I called from the beginning and I think it's going to turn out fantastically.

    He didn't do too fantastic in the primaries, remember.

    Actually he did the best after Kerry. So from that standpoint he did pretty well.
  13. KnightWriter Administrator Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Nov 6, 2001
    star 8
    They both are solid Goldwater-Reagan Republicans.

    And McCain holds the same Senate seat that Goldwater had, which I find fitting.

    Dennis Hastert blasted McCain for wanting to cut spending on Iraq, saying that McCain didn't know the meaning of sacrifice.

    What an unqualified fool (Hastert, that is).

    Moving on, I think Edwards' inexperience could be painted as a strength, if done right. He hasn't been absorbed by the hallways of Washington and is ready to learn on the job.
  14. Darth_Deus Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Dec 11, 2000
    star 4
    I don't see anyway Bush can win this one. I don't hear anyone who voted for Gore in 2000 saying they will vote for Bush this time around. But I hear LOTS of people who voted for Bush saying they will vote for Kerry this time.

    Bush didn't win last time, he stole it. Face it, you know it's true. He didn't have the popular vote, and he won't get it this time either.
  15. ShaneP Ex-Mod Officio

    Member Since:
    Mar 26, 2001
    star 6
    So let's see:

    We have a billionaire by marriage and a millionaire by birthright at the top of the tickets.


    We have a trial lawyer and big oil man at the bottom.

    Yehoo! Great choices.

    [face_plain]

    EDIT
    KW, when I first saw "unqualified fool" I thought it read "tool". lol. Either one would be fitting.

    I dislike most of the House republican leadership. DeLay is the worst.
  16. KnightWriter Administrator Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Nov 6, 2001
    star 8
    Bush didn't win last time, he stole it. Face it, you know it's true. He didn't have the popular vote, and he won't get it this time either.

    Could we please dispense with those kinds of comments here? It does nothing but detract from discussion.

    You don't need the popular vote to win the election in this country, and Bush wasn't the first president to win the election without winning the popular vote. You have to win the electoral vote, and that's what he did.

    End of story.

    I suggest we move on from 2000, except as it directly relates to the upcoming election.
  17. ShaneP Ex-Mod Officio

    Member Since:
    Mar 26, 2001
    star 6
    We need a battleground analysis from 2000 to '04.

    What will Edwards bring, if anything, to Kerry's campaign in NC and Virginia? He has surprised me by hanging in there.

    Does he have a shot at ol' Dominion?

    If so, Bush would be in trouble.

    BTW, Bush is now tracking ahead of Kerry in Penn.

    Late-night election?
  18. Darth_Deus Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Dec 11, 2000
    star 4
    2000 is relevant, as I pointed out. Florida was stolen in 2000, and even less people will be voting for Bush this time. How many Gore voters do you know of who have become Bush voters? I know plenty of people who voted for Bush who are not going to this time. Heck, they were calling into the Rush Limbaugh Show in droves months ago!
  19. ShaneP Ex-Mod Officio

    Member Since:
    Mar 26, 2001
    star 6
  20. Master_Fwiffo Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    May 29, 2001
    star 3
    Oh for Cripes sake Dues, will you lay off the tired diatribe of 'OMG BUSH STOLE THE ELECTION!!!1111' That has been refuted so many times its hardly funny.


    But as it relates to the election, I hope the Media learned enough from Florida to keep their big mouths shut on election night...
  21. Obi-Wan McCartney Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 17, 1999
    star 5
    You know it. Everyone who voted or felt like they got screwed is going to vote for this time, we'll see how good Bush's crew is at getting his vote out.

    As far as McCain goes, I'm not sure Kerry ever decided he wanted McCain, I think he wanted the OPTION. However, McCain knew this and also knew he would be a marginilized and sidelined VP, given his political stances.

    Furthermore, even if McCain WAS Kerry's first choice, so what? How does that hurt Kerry? McCain obviously toyed with the idea, he even talked about it publicly before the hammer came down and he had to deny it. The fact that McCain was even a consideration at all shows Bush's weakness. They HAD to reign McCain in and use him.

    In addition, McCain is idolized by the left, but not for any real good reason. He is respected because he comes off as a decent, honest, and respectable man. He also happens to be a conservative. With McCain, you have someone who you can respectfully disagree with. That should be the NORM for BOTH parties, but it is a rare thing so that's why McCain comes off well.

    As far as the cost of business for doctors, the medical community has only themselves to blame for the state of health care. They had a chance to set up their own investigative body and they can still lobby for an administrative law system, but the Doctors weren't and aren't willing to regulate each other and call each other out on malpractice, so we have to get lawyers and career malpractice testifying doctors to do it for them. In addition, do any of you really think tort reform will lower the cost of insurance premiums? Get real, all it will do is give insurance companies larger profit margins.

    Don't blame the lawyer, blame the big business of health care.
  22. dizfactor Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Aug 12, 2002
    star 5
    Referring to McCain as a "moderate" just shows how conservative this country has become. The real Reagan legacy.

    agreed, but if the choice is between conservatives running the GOP and lunatics running the GOP, i'll take conservatives, thanks.

    Dennis Hastert blasted McCain for wanting to cut spending on Iraq, saying that McCain didn't know the meaning of sacrifice.

    *blinks*

    for pete's sake, the man spent five years in a freaking cage being tortured by the Vietnamese. they offered him a chance to go home early, and he didn't take it, because Navy policy is that POWs should be returned in the order they're captured and he wasn't going to essentially take another man's slot out of turn. i think the Vietnam war was an unqualified atrocity, but even i have to respect the man's personal courage.

    between that and Max Cleland i find it absolutely galling that the Republicans have the temerity to accuse anyone of not supporting our troops.
  23. QuanarReg Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Aug 17, 2002
    star 3
    Actually it will be interesting to see how Edwards will preform agains Mr. Cheney. I watched almost every single one of the Democratic debates, and personally I thought Mr. Edwards was the least impressive debater up there. I remember him often getting caught up in his own words and contradicting himself. Mr. Cheney may very well beat Mr. Edwards.



    Also I find it interesting that now with Mr. Edwards on the ticket, that means that George W. Bush is the POOREST man in the election. Kerry being the wealthiest by far, then Edwards, then Cheney. I never thought I'd be able to say that George Bush is the least wealthiest man running for President.

  24. Vaderize03 Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Oct 25, 1999
    star 5
    Just for the record, I do believe that Mr. Cheney is quite a bit wealthier than Mr. Edwards.

    Mr. Edwards has a total worth of around $30 million; Mr. Cheney filed upwards of that as interest income during the 2000 election, if memory serves.

    Personally, I agree w/Jedismuggler that Edwards will only irritate physicians who are fed up with medical malpractice. I myself am quite irritated by it, and if I were only voting finances, I would be Bush all the way. However, I am much more concerned at the direction this country is taking at the moment to be worried just about my pocketbook. As such, I am giving my support to the dems, even though it may mean higher taxes and/or lower income for me in the future.

    Anyway, gotta lecture to attend. More later.

    Peace,

    V-03
  25. JediSmuggler Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 5, 1999
    star 5
    Obi-Wan McCartney

    Yeah... at this point, though, you have to look over the way things might go.

    The fact remains, the Chamber of Commerce will NOT be on the sidelines. Plus, Kerry/Edwards will be on the defensive over the malpractice insurance premiums that are driving doctors out of business in some states. In Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan, that is going to cause Kerry some problems.

    The Republicans could make very huge inroads if Doctor Frist is talking with other doctors there about their malpractice premiums - people tend to like and trust doctors a lot more than they trust the trial lawyers - particularly those who are involved in lawsuits.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.