Discussion in 'Attack of the Clones' started by w_sasso_mdtv, May 17, 2002.
HowÂ´s the general reception of AOTC???
It was only a $3 million dollar difference, but going from $27 mil to $30 mil was huge. If hadn't beaten TPM's first day...EW and Showbiz and all the other's would have had a field day!
So 300 millions should be okay!
I'd say $300 million's a lock
I'm not 100% sure how these estimates work.
On a tuesday, they have Monday's final take by around 1 pm pacific. But, on a Saturday they don't have Friday's actual take. I'm not sure why, maybe some of the people don't work weekends. But i'm not sure who exactly does the estimates. Possibly late Friday they try to get a feeling for the day and use historical figures to try to "complete the day".
But, obviously Ice Age is not going to have as many people for 10:00 pm and 1:00 am showings than TPM.
The hard thing is, TPM is a PG movie, but the 10:00 shows have sold out just as fast or faster than the 7:00 shows.
So if the way they do it is say, 10:00 shows for PG movies usually count for 12% of the day, than perhaps the estimates will go up....
Other than that rambling, i have no idea...We should contact somebody at mojo or something. I'm sure they may have a general idea how Friday-Sunday estimates are figured out.
Friday Box Office (estimate) - 24,665,000 (got it from boxofficemojo.com)
In 1999, TPM made 18 million on its Friday, 24 million Saturday and 21 million Sunday. It seems, Friday is always the lowest weekend day for a Star Wars flick!
Think what will truly be the litmus test is how AOTC does during the week. TPM did great during the week.
I went to a 7:00pm showing on the 16th, and the theatre was PACKED! I was in line five hours early, and the line still snaked around the building!
What do you guys think the final gross at which point AOTC will be considered a failure in the media...
I think it has to make about $365 or more to avoid being labeled a "disappointment"
It needs to beat Spidey and LOTR in order to not be considred a failure. I am wondering if it will do that. Does this film have legs? Is the question most should be asking about this movie.
I really hope AOTC makes a lot of money. It is such a good movie. I know all of us plan on watching it multiple times.
If AOTC opened on a Friday, it would have had a near 40M opening as well....It would have given Spidey a serious run for it's money...
Add TPM's Thursday and Friday gross from it's first week and it barely beats AOTC.
TPM and AOTC have made about the same money thru it's first Friday....
TPM made only 64M it's first weekend....But that discounts its 28M Wednesday, and 12M Thursday...
And this film definately has legs....
To whomever said that Spidey fanboys won't go see Spidey 9 times doesn't really know how fanatical comic book fans are. I have been working at a comic book store for three years now and know alot of regular customers. The diehard Spider-Man fans have been rabid about this film. Some have already hit double digits as far as how many times they have seen it.
On the flipside, I have heard alot of the same talk from the Star Wars people that come in there. Unfortunately, I have also heard alot of people say they are just going to wait for it on DVD because of all the bad reviews. Apparently some people can't make up their minds for themselves and would rather let moron critics form their opinions for them. Oh well...more room for me in the theater.
Has anyone seen final figures yet for Friday??
I was checking out boxofficemojo.com which lists the estimate at 24 mil.
Anyone know how they arrive at an estimate? They originally estimated Thursday at 27 mil but the actual was 30 mil.
Great movie. I'll be seeing it a few times for sure.
The Jedi faithful spent an estimated $24.7M on the new George Lucas epic Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones on Friday, its second day of release. The Fox event picture slipped only 18% from its opening day gross of $30.1M from Thursday which included sales from midnight shows late Wednesday night. After two days, the PG-rated film has grossed a fantastic $54.8M.
Episode II's Friday take was a robust 34% stronger than the Friday gross of 1999's Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace on its opening weekend. That film, which debuted one day earlier on a Wednesday, collected $18.5M on its first Friday leading to a three-day weekend gross of $64.8M.
The Friday performance of Clones did not come close to the record $39.4M that Spider-Man took in on its Friday launch two weeks ago. However, comparisons would be unfair for a number of reasons. Spider-Man's Friday was the opening day which is the day when die-hard fans rush out. Plus it had roughly 1,500 more prints in the marketplace and much less competition from other films.
Following its weekday debut, Episode I witnessed 28% of its three-day weekend figure on Friday. Phantom Menace climbed 32% on Saturday to $24.4M and remained strong on Sunday easing just 10% to $21.9M. With most critics and fans finding Episode II to be superior to its predecessor, it could follow a similar path this weekend and generate a three-day gross in the neighborhood of $80-90M. Add in Thursday's stellar performance and Star Wars Episode II may find itself with $110-120M over its four-day debut frame.
I think it will make around $78 million over the weekend.
24 million...wow I'm shocked it's that low. I thought it would hit at least 30 million. 24 million is 40% less than Spiderman took on its first Friday.
Of course Spiderman opened on that day. However, Saturday and Sunday will definately be extremely important boxoffice numbers for AOTC. I hope AOTC can hit at minimum 30 million on Saturday and Sunday to bring the weekend boxoffice to 85 million. I hear the media now proclaiming this movie a boxoffice failure if it hits under 100 million for the weekend. Just be prepared for negative media coverage...something we should be used to by now!
I was at the movie theater today and Spiderman was selling out just as many shows as AOTC. I remember last time when TPM was out there were lines around the block the whole first weekend for the movie. Today at the theater there was NO lines present for AOTC. I think the negative publicity from the biased press may be hurting the boxoffice for AOTC.
I went to the first showing yesterday and someone bought 2 tickets for SW and 2 tickets for a later spidey.
And SW really needs to do well during the week. Spidey is making between 4 and 5 mil every day.
Attack of the Clones earned an estimated $24.66 million on Friday. If you take away the $6 to $8 million that AotC made on Wednesday, that would leave Thursday with $22 to $24 million. So technically AotC made more on Friday than it did Thursday. At $24.66 million, AotC has about $6 million more (33.5% higher) than The Phantom Menace made its first Friday. If it were to continue at that pace, AotC would make $88.9 million this weekend. I don't think it will get that high, simply because of the Thursday opening. A higher concentration of people saw The Phantom Menace on Wednesday and Thursday, so that leads to the higher internal multiplier. Also, The Phantom Menace was unabashedly a kids' film, where AotC isn't to the same extent. The one thing that makes me think AotC will come close to The Phantom Menace's internal multiplier is the overwhelmingly good word-of-mouth from Star Wars fans. That alone should catapult AotC to a 3.4 internal multiplier and a $83.8 million three-day weekend take. That would give it $113.9 million since Thursday, or - coincidentally - $1 million less than Spider-Man made in three days.
I think it's doing fine, and good word of mouth should (hopefully) generate a small decline next week.
But I don't care so much for AOTC box office intake or that it makes more money then God, I just want it to be good, and even if AOTC ends up making LESS money then previous star wars films, I'll be satisfied with it as long as it's considered worthy of the star wars title by fans and general audience alike.
Is anyone worried about the low box office sales on ATOC first friday???Cos i sure am...i agree that i think bad publicity is hurting the movie...but i also it as a little to do with EP1 TPM & the reception & reputation that recieved too...plus with the fact that its only been 3 years since the last star wars film & not 16,but i agree that if it doesnt beat spiderman & all the other big summer movies & earn at least 365million then it will be considered a dissapointment-i agree & this worries me alot & i sure hope its overall earnings & bad press doesnt effect the development of Episode 3 in any way shape or form-which i think is a very worrying possability right now...even if its only in funds-cos wot this film makes funds the following one-its the way lucas as always works-this is very worrying :-(
I think they are good numbers, it's just that they are coming right after a weird phenomenon. I think what you saw on Thursday was the hardcore audience. They came out in droves, just like in 99. Problem is, I just don't see Star Wars appealing to such a wide demographic.
I didn't see Spiderman (and I won't), but I was at the theater on opening weekend. I have never seen anything like it. teenagers, little kids, old people, adults, women, EVERYBODY saw that damn thing. And while the movie may not be great or epic like Star Wars, its a fun "popcorn" movie.
If Episode 2 is anything, it's not a popcorn movie. It's not a lighthearted romp that you want to catch on a friday night with your girlfriend. At least I dont think so. It's heavy, it's dark, and it is intended to advance a story that it assumes the audience is familiar with.
So with that in mind, no, it won't outdo Spiderman, and frankly I don't really care. I think it would be awesome if Star Wars comes out on top, but it wont be the end of the world if it doesnt.
OK it looks like AOTC will make between $75-$80 fri to sun.
for a total of $105-115 for 4 days.
BIG NUMBERS FOR ANY FLICK. but not enough to close to spidey.
if aotc averges $9 million during midweek and $20 during fri-mon (memorial day weekend) then it should be at $221-231 may28!! 12 day take.
i am thinking it will follow TPM BO and end up close to $400 million.
Saffsmale_UK, I don't think it has anything to do with TPM. Remember that ESB, which was the direct sequel of the biggest movie of all time (at that point), made the least amount of money.
I never thought that AOTC would equal TPM in terms of revenue, even before Spiderman hit the fan. I thought it would be the biggest movie of the year, sure, but now that its in jeopardy, I don't really see what the big deal is.
Not only that, but....... people liked Episode 1. I know a lot of people in here didn't, and the media certainly likes to trash it, but overall it was positively recieved by most moviegoers.
I am not a spokesman for Lucas and I don't think whatever he says is golden, but I do believe him when he says that his numbers had 80 percent of the audience really liking the movie.
It was much more like Spiderman in that it was "fun", kind of lighthearted, and it had a happy ending (well sort of).
This movie is much more ambiguous. I don't think you know what to think when you leave the theater. As Yoda said, that wasn't a victory at all, it's just the beginning of some really bad stuff.
The box office does not reflect the quality of the film. Personally, I am tired of the whole Spider-man vs. Star Wars hype in the media. The reason Spider-man is performing so well is because there was 40 years of build-up to Spider-man. 60 year-old men who were twenty when the first comic came out went to see the movie. 60 year old men don't go to see Star Wars. I saw Spider-man and, yeah, it was a good, fun flick, but I was not in love with it. The fact it made $114 million doesn't mean I loved it. Personally, I thoroughly enjoyed AotC and think it is better than Star Wars regardless of the final box office take.